Iran
Factbox: Timeline Of The Iranian Nuclear Dispute
(epa) Below is a timeline of the unfolding international dispute surrounding Iran's nuclear program. While Tehran maintains that its program is entirely peaceful, the United States accuses Iran of secretly attempting to develop nuclear weapons, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Tehran has failed to persuade it that its program is purely nonmilitary.
23 May 2007 -- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says in a new report, issued to coincide with the expiration of a Security Council deadline for Tehran, that Iran continues to defy UN Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment and has in fact expanded such work. The IAEA adds that the UN nuclear agency's ability to monitor nuclear activities in Iran has declined due to lack of access to sites. IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei urges constructive efforts on both sides and estimates that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within "three to eight years" -- if it chose that path.
17 May 2007 -- U.S. President George W. Bush says alongside outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair that the United States and Britain will seek new UN sanctions against Iran if it continues to resist calls for it to halt sensitive areas of its nuclear program. Bush is speaking the same day that a senior Iranian official says Tehran has expanded work on its nuclear facility at Natanz.
2 May 2007 -- A foreign affairs adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells a conservative daily that Iran is capable of the "mass production" of centrifuges used for enriching uranium.
28 April 2007 -- EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana calls on the United States to open a direct "channel of communication" with Iran on all topics, adding that it remains unclear "how far the U.S. is willing to engage" with Iran.
25-26 April 2007 -- EU foreign policy official Solana and Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani restart talks aimed at finding a nuclear compromise.
April 19, 2007 -- An IAEA official says in a leaked letter that Iran has assembled roughly 1,300 centrifuges into eight cascades and begun making nuclear fuel in its underground uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz. The Iranian ambassador to the IAEA says that "our enrichment is continuing under the safeguards of the IAEA, the inspectors and cameras are controlling all activities, and the report of how many centrifuge machines and the latest status of the activities in Natanz will be reported by the director-general."
11 April 2007 -- A spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) predicts that Iran will have the capacity to build its own nuclear bomb in four to six years, leaving time for diplomatic efforts to counter any potential danger.
10 April 2007 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says Iran will not accept any suspension of its uranium-enrichment activities and urges world powers to accept the "new reality" of the Islamic republic's nuclear program.
9 April 2007 -- Iran says the country's uranium-enrichment program is ready to operate on an "industrial level."
20 March 2007 -- Russia and Iran reject a report in "The New York Times" of March 19 suggesting that Moscow told Tehran it would withhold fuel for the Bushehr nuclear plant unless Iran complied with UN demands to suspend uranium enrichment.
15 March 2007 -- Diplomats say the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany have agreed on a draft resolution imposing new sanctions on Iran for defying demands to suspend uranium enrichment.
12 March 2007 -- The Russian company building Iran's first nuclear power station at Bushehr, Atomstroiexport, announces that the facility's launch will be postponed due to a two-month payment delay preventing the delivery of uranium fuel.
11 February 2007 -- The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, says the Russian supplier for its planned Bushehr nuclear plant has signaled a delay over delinquent payments. He suggests the real problem lies on the Russian side and that he hopes the plant is not being "politicized."
5 March 2007 -- IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei says Tehran has not convinced the UN nuclear watchdog of the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program and an investigation into that program remains at a "stalemate" until Iran provides full cooperation.
26 February 2007 -- The United States says it is seeking "incremental" steps to pressure Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.
25 February 2007 -- President Ahmadinejad says Iran's nuclear program is unstoppable and, in a show of its growing technical prowess the same day, Iran reportedly fires a rocket into space for the first time.
23 February 2007 -- U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney says Washington will "do everything" it can to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons and has not taken "any options off the table," spurring further speculation that U.S. officials would consider military intervention.
22 February 2007 -- The IAEA issues a report confirming that Iran has failed to halt uranium-enrichment activities, as demanded by the UN Security Council. The report also notes that Iran has expanded the program, installing two cascades with many dozens of centrifuges at Natanz and nearing completion on two more cascades.
21 February 2007 - The UN Security Council's 60-day deadline ends for Iran to halt uranium enrichment. Iranian parliamentary speaker Gholam Ali Hadad Adel warns that a delay by Russia in completing the Bushehr nuclear plant would harm bilateral ties. His comments came after Russian nuclear officials' claim that lagging payments from Tehran could delay start-up of the facility.
11 February 2007 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says Iran wants talks to resolve its nuclear dispute and will cooperate with the IAEA, but Tehran will not suspend uranium enrichment. Iranian officials also say they will allow IAEA cameras at its underground nuclear facility at Natanz. French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy calls Ahmadinejad's offer of talks while continuing enrichment "totally unacceptable."
8 February 2007 -- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says that while he does not expect anything as "irrational" as an attack on Iran, his country would strike back at U.S. interests around the world if it were attacked. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council dismisses Khamenei's comment as "unprovoked" and says President George W. Bush "has made it clear we have no intention of going to war with Iran." Bush's chief spokesman says flatly, "We are not invading Iran."
1 February 2007 -- The French president's office essentially retracts a recent suggestion by Jacques Chirac that a nuclear-armed Iran would not be "very dangerous," calling such an eventuality unacceptable and describing Iran's nuclear program as "opaque and therefore dangerous for the region."
31 January 2007 -- Iran's embassy in Moscow denies a British newspaper report that North Korea is giving it technical help to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one carried out by Pyongyang in October.
28 January 2007 -- After talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, visiting Russian security chief Igor Ivanov says "Russia is determined" to finish Bushehr nuclear power plant, in southern Iran, on time.
26 January 2007 -- IAEA chief Muhammad el-Baradei warns that a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could have "catastrophic consequences" and would only encourage Iran to develop an atomic bomb. "Are you going to bomb the knowledge?" he asks.
22 January 2007 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki confirms reports that 38 UN nuclear inspectors have been prohibited from entering the country in a list that was reportedly delivered to the IAEA; the next day, Tehran stresses that cooperation with the IAEA continues, despite the ban. The European Union urges all countries to enforce the recently passed UN sanctions against Iran.
12 January 2007 -- Outgoing U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte tells the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that Iran is capable of weathering shocks to its economy, noting record oil revenues and manageable debt.
10 January 2007 -- The United States urges China to reconsider a $16 billion energy deal with Iran on the development of oil and gas fields whose outlines were affirmed in a memorandum of understanding in December 2006.
27 December 2006 -- Iran's parliament passes a bill that obliges the government to "revise its cooperation level" with the UN's nuclear watchdog and, at the same time, continue to pursue the country's civilian nuclear program.
25 December 2006 -- President Ahmadinejad responds to UN Security Council Resolution 1737 by saying the sanctions will have "no impact" on Iran's nuclear program.
23 December 2006 -- The 15-member UN Security Council unanimously adopts a binding resolution that calls on Iran to suspend its uranium-enrichment activities and to comply with its IAEA obligations. Resolution 1737 directs all states to prevent the supply or sale to Iran of any materials that could assist its nuclear or ballistic-missile programs. It also imposes an asset freeze on key companies and individuals named by the UN as contributors to Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Iran rejects the move as an "invalid" and "extralegal act" outside the bounds of the UN's charter.
6 December 2006 -- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov says that imposing overly tough sanctions on Iran could draw out the nuclear dispute.
5 December 2006 -- Ahead of a major-powers meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue, Iranian President Ahmadinejad warns the international community that "if you continue making efforts to halt the progress of Iran's nuclear program [or] if you take any step against Iran's rights -- either in propaganda or international bodies -- the Iranian nation will consider this a hostile act."
23 November 2006 -- UN diplomats are quoted as saying the IAEA's board of governors shelved Iran's bid for technical aid for a heavy-water reactor project at Arak over fears it could yield weapons-grade plutonium.
20 November 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad reportedly says Tehran wants 60,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium to meet its nuclear-fuel needs within a year. He also is quoted as saying that Israel is currently incapable of launching an effective military attack against Iran's nuclear sites.
17 November 2006 -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says the IAEA should lead efforts to resolve the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, rather than UN Security Council. He suggests that "it was agreed from the beginning that we would seek through the Security Council the swift resumption of negotiations with Iran, and not the punishment of Iran."
15 November 2006 -- U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton says no progress was made in talks on the Iranian nuclear issue involving himself and envoys from Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany.
14 November 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad predicts that Iran will celebrate its "full nuclearization" by the end of the year that concludes in March, and suggests his country's right to pursue nuclear technology will soon be acknowledged internationally. Reports also emerge suggesting the IAEA will soon report that Iran continues to enrich uranium, spurn cooperation over its nuclear program, and that UN inspectors are pursuing their discovery of unexplained traces of plutonium and highly enriched uranium at a waste facility in Iran with officials in Tehran.
13 November 2006 -- U.S. President George W. Bush says after talks with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that "there has to be a consequence" if Iran proceeds with its uranium-enrichment program in defiance of international pressure.
12 November 2006 -- An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman says Tehran is pressing ahead with plans to expand its program to enrich uranium and remains determined to install 3,000 centrifuges by March 2007.
11 November 2006 -- Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Russia wants to restart nuclear talks between Iran and the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.
10-11 November 2006 -- Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani emerges from talks in Moscow divulging no details but saying Iran is ready for dialogue to resolve any disputes over its nuclear program; he reportedly meets with President Vladimir Putin on the second day of his visit.
8 November 2006 -- Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany are reportedly still deadlocked after a meeting at the UN to discuss a European draft resolution to curtail Iran's nuclear program and amendments offered by Moscow and Washington. Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin says there is still a "considerable gap" separating the parties.
5 November 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini says Tehran is ready to consider negotiating with the United States on regional issues, including Iraq, if Washington requests it.
4 November 2006 -- Russia stresses that any punitive measures the UN Security Council agrees to impose on Iran "should have a precise limitation on the period for their being in effect."
3 November 2006 -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says after a meeting in Brussels that a European draft UN resolution on Iran sanctions "goes far beyond [our] agreements."
1 November 2006 -- Foreign Minister Lavrov says a draft UN resolution authored by France, Germany, and Britain to impose sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear ambitions would isolate Iran and Moscow "cannot support measures that are aimed at isolating Iran from the outside world."
31 October 2006 -- Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov says his country has no information "that would suggest that Iran is carrying out a nonpeaceful [nuclear] program," adding that "the possibilities for continuing political discussion...have not been exhausted."
30 October 2006 -- Iran's president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, says Tehran would make an "appropriate and firm" response to UN sanctions, adding that "the Iranian nation is standing strong and it will not retreat even one bit from its nuclear rights."
28 October 2006 -- Mohammad Ghannad, the deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, says that Tehran has stepped up its uranium-enrichment work.
24 October 2006 -- Anonymous diplomatic sources at the UN say major world powers remain split over the details of a draft Security Council resolution to respond to Iran's continuing nuclear work.
21 October 2006 -- Foreign Minister Lavrov says Moscow opposes any attempt to use the Security Council to punish Iran over its nuclear program.
18 October 2006 -- EU foreign ministers express backing for gradual sanctions against Iran's nuclear program.
16 October 2006 -- In his country's first reaction to sanctions targeting North Korea for its apparent nuclear-weapons test on October 9, President Ahmadinejad dismisses the UN Security Council as a tool for "hegemony" and "intimidation."
4 October 2006 -- EU foreign policy chief Solana says four months of intensive talks have brought no agreement on suspension of Iran's sensitive nuclear activities, and he adds that the dialogue cannot continue indefinitely.
3 October 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice suggests the international community will have no choice but to impose sanctions on Iran if it refuses to suspend its uranium-enrichment efforts.
26 September 2006 -- Russia and Iran agree on a September 2007 launch of Iran's nuclear power plant at Bushehr, with electricity production to begin two months later.
25 September 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says nuclear talks with European negotiators are "on track" and a diplomatic solution is possible.
22 September 2006 -- Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi warns that Iran's armed forces will strike back "like lightning" against any attack on the country and destroy "the enemy."
21 September 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says nuclear talks with the EU are "on the right path." He adds that he is "at a loss" as to what more Tehran can do to provide guarantees that it is no trying to develop nuclear weapons.
20 September 2006 -- U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says six major world powers have agreed to back further EU talks with Iran, but he hints that Washington will push for sanctions if Tehran continues sensitive nuclear work. Burns says an unspecified deadline has been set for the current EU-Iranian talks to achieve results.
19 September 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today urged other permanent members of the UN Security Council not to allow their "credibility to decline" by failing to act against Iran.
17 September 2006 -- German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposes the creation of shared, U.N.-monitored uranium-enrichment facilities as an alternative to individual countries acquiring their own enrichment technology.
14 September 2006 -- To "set the record straight," the IAEA protests in a letter to U.S. officials that a recent U.S. report describing Iran's nuclear program as a strategic threat contains "erroneous, misleading, and unsubstantiated information." The IAEA dismisses as untrue a claim that Iran is enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels; Iran is enriching to 3.6 percent, not the 90 percent needed for nuclear weapons.
13 September 2006 -- A spokeswoman for EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana says a second round of EU-Iranian nuclear talks slated for the following day have been postponed. The same day, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan suggested that Tehran's position on the nuclear issue might have softened.
11 September 2006 -- Muhammad el-Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), says he is "encouraged that there is ongoing dialogue" over Iran's nuclear activities.
9-10 September 2006 -- Two days of "productive" EU-Iranian talks end inconclusively, with a vow to meet again the following week.
September 8, 2006 -- U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says the UN Security Council should begin drafting a resolution in the next week on sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. He notes that there is still no consensus on what type of sanctions might be imposed.
5 September 2006 -- The Iranian parliament's Commission for National Security and Foreign Policy approves the outlines of a bill to suspend entry to Iran of UN inspectors in the event of punitive measures by the UN Security Council.
1 September 2006 -- Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami arrives in the United States ahead of a UN conference and several public appearances that make him the most senior Iranian official to visit the United States outside the strict framework of a UN event in more than two decades.
31 August 2006 -- The IAEA reports to the Security Council that Iran has continued to enrich uranium despite UN calls for it to stop its nuclear activities by August 31, adding that its own investigations have been frustrated by a lack of cooperation from Iran.
29 August 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says he thinks the UN Security Council will not punish Iran, but says his country "will not bow to threats and ultimatums." He says Tehran's response to the recent international deadline presents a "very exceptional opportunity" to resolve the nuclear dispute. Ahmadinejad also proposes a live, televised debate with U.S. President George W. Bush.
27 August 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad launches a new phase in Iran's nuclear development with the formal opening of a heavy-water-production plant at Arak. Critics fear the plant will eventually be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium, and the IAEA will later shelve an Iranian request for international technical assistance with the plant. Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says Iran is determined to produce its own nuclear fuel.
22 August 2006 -- Iran responds to a self-imposed deadline by saying an international proposal to curb its disputed nuclear program has "fundamental and serious ambiguities" but adds that Tehran is ready for "serious talks." Iranian officials essentially ignore the demand by the UN Security Council's permanent members plus Germany that Iran halt uranium enrichment.
4 August 2006 -- The United States slaps sanctions on seven international arms dealers, including two major Russian companies, for allegedly providing banned technology to Iran.
31 July 2006 --The UN Security Council adopts Resolution 1696, calling for Iran to suspend uranium-enrichment activites by August 31 or face the possibility of economic sanctions.
18 July 2006 -- The unfolding crisis between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon delays UN consideration of Iran's nuclear program.
16 July 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi says the international incentives package is "an acceptable basis" for further negotiations.
12 July 2006 -- A meeting of foreign ministers of the permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany in Paris decides to refer Iran's nuclear program back to the Security Council for possible sanctions.
11 July 2006 -- The EU announces that it is disappointed with progress in Brussels talks with Iran over the international incentives package.
30 June 2006 -- Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says Iran will not respond to the international incentives package before August, despite U.S. and EU pressure for Tehran to answer by July 5.
16 June 2006 -- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad calls a package of international incentives aimed at persuading Tehran to abandon sensitive nuclear activities "a step forward" and says he has "asked my colleagues to carefully consider it."
15 June 2006-- Russian President Putin says after a meeting with President Ahmadinejad on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit that the talks left him with a "very positive impression." Putin says Ahmadinejad says Iran is "positively" assessing the package of nuclear incentives. Putin also says any country has the right to use nuclear technology so long as it "does not arouse concerns of the international community on the [nuclear] nonproliferation issue."
12 June 2006 -- Supreme National Security Council chief and top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says of the incentives offer that "this proposal contains some positive points, such as the nuclear reactor for Iran." Larijani's comments come as the IAEA board is launching a meeting at which it will discuss the Iranian nuclear standoff.
9 June 2006 -- Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel, who holds the European Union's rotating presidency, says Iran has until the July summit of the Group of Eight leading industrialized countries to respond to an offer of incentives aimed at resolving the crisis over its nuclear program.
8 June 2006 -- A new report by the UN nuclear agency says Iran is continuing to enrich uranium and indicates that nuclear inspectors have made little progress on shedding light on worrying aspects of Tehran's nuclear activities in the past.
6 June 2006 -- EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana meets in Tehran with senior Iranian government officials and presents them with fresh proposals aimed at persuading Iran to abandon its uranium-enrichment program. The proposals have been agreed on by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States -- plus Germany.
17 May 2006 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad says in a televised speech that Tehran will reject a European offer of incentives to give up uranium enrichment, saying acceptance of the proposal would be tantamount to swapping nuts and chocolate for gold.
28 April 2006 -- The IAEA sends its report to the UN Security Council faulting Iran for failing to meet demands to suspend uranium enrichment and improve cooperation with nuclear inspectors. The report marks the end of the Security Council's 30-day deadline for demonstrating that its nuclear activities are only for civilian purposes. U.S. President Bush expresses a desire to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
27 April 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says on the sidelines of a NATO meeting that the UN Security Council "has to act" in order to remain credible if Iran ignores the deadline for halting uranium enrichment. Iranian President Ahmadinejad says Iran will not comply.
25 April 2006 -- Top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani says Iran will cut ties with the IAEA if the UN Security Council imposes sanctions over Iran's nuclear program.
24 April 2006 -- Iranian President Ahmadinejad says Iran's nuclear activities are transparent and he does not think pursuing uranium enrichment will lead to international sanctions.
23 April 2006 -- Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi says Iran's uranium-enrichment and nuclear-research activities are "irreversible."
19 April 2006 -- U.S. Secretary of State Rice says Washington is prepared to use political, economic, and other measures to dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, adding that it has "diplomatic tools" at its disposal.
12 April 2006 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei visits Iran to discuss the country's nuclear program with senior Iranian officials but few details emerge. El-Baradei says he cannot confirm Iranian claims that its scientists have enriched uranium to fuel power stations.
11 April 2006 -- Iranian President Ahmadinejad announces, using Islamic rhetoric in a special ceremony seemingly designed to attract popular support, that Iran has completed the nuclear-fuel cycle. The achievement places Iran among the "nuclear countries of the world."
2 April 2006 -- Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, claims that the more the Security Council is involved, the worse the situation will become.
30 March 2006 -- The five permanent UN Security Council members -- the United States, Britain, France, China, and Russia -- and Germany warn Iran that it must heed the UN statement insisting that it stop its nuclear work or face isolation. Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki dismisses the warning; other officials will also reject the Security Council warning. IAEA Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei urges Iran to be more forthcoming but also says he thinks sanctions at this time would be unwise.
29 March 2006 -- UN Security Council unanimously adopts statement calling on Tehran to halt its nuclear work.
28 March 2006 -- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov demands that Tehran say "unambiguously" whether it will accept or reject Russia's offer to enrich uranium to supply an Iranian nuclear program. Reports emerge that the Iranian Embassy in Moscow has proposed the establishment -- with the involvement of other countries -- of a nuclear-fuel production center in Iran.
25 March 2006 -- Syrian First Vice President Faruq al-Shara and Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki decry Israel's nuclear program as a threat to regional peace.
21 March 2006 -- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says "there is no problem with" direct talks rumored to have been planned between Iran and the United States over the situation in Iraq, as long as those discussions lead Washington to understand Tehran's position. Iranian sources have been quoted as insisting the talks must be limited to the topic of Iraq.
20 March 2006 -- U.S. President Bush says he hopes "to solve this [nuclear] issue diplomatically" with a "united message" from the five permanent Security Council members but adds that Iranian officials' threats against "our strong ally, Israel," are "a threat to world peace." Bush adds that "we will use military might to protect our ally, Israel."
16 March 2006 -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair insists the international community "cannot walk away" from the Iranian nuclear issue and says there was no point turning to the UN "unless something is going to follow as a result of that."
12 March 2006 -- Tehran says a Russian proposal to move Iran's enrichment program to Russia is "off" the agenda and that Iran will not consider any proposal that does not guarantee the country's "right to nuclear research."
8 March 2006 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei says at the end of a three-day meeting that the agency will forward his report -- which accuses Iran of withholding information, possessing plans linked to nuclear weapons and refusing to freeze uranium enrichment -- to the UN Security Council. El-Baradei urges Iran to "be transparent" and "take confidence-building measures." Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad vows in a televised speech that "Iran will not give in to any political pressure, [will] make no compromise, and will go to the end of the line."
7 March 2006 -- Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns says Tehran has "crossed the international red line" with its activities to enrich uranium, adding that unless Iran suspends all nuclear activities, the Security Council must get involved.
3 March 2006 -- European talks with Iranian officialsfailto provide a nuclear compromise ahead of the IAEA's March 6-8 meeting.
2 March 2006 -- Reports say Russian-Iranian talks in Moscow fail to produce a "decisive breakthrough" on the basis of a Russian proposal to enrich uranium for Iran. Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani pledges that his country will not stop its enrichment activities.
26 February 2006 -- The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholam-Reza Aqazadeh, says Iran and Russia have reached basic agreement on a Russian proposal to host Iran's uranium-enrichment program.
14 February 2006 -- Ten days after the IAEA voted to report it to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities, Iran confirms that it has resumed work on uranium enrichment.
5 February 2006 -- Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki announces the end of Iran's voluntary cooperation with the IAEA.
4 February 2006 -- IAEA governing board votes overwhelmingly to report Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities.
30 January 2006 -- Foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), plus Germany, concur that Iran should be reported to the council for its nuclear activities, but action should be delayed until after the March meeting of the IAEA governing board. Tehran counters with a threat to end all cooperation with the IAEA and adherence to international accords, as called for by an earlier parliamentary decision.
24 January 2006 -- Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani visits Moscow to discuss a December proposal that nuclear fuel enriched in Russia will be shipped to Iran for use, then returned to Russia for storage. Larijani indicated a lack of enthusiasm on 27 January, telling reporters at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport that Moscow's idea does not conform fully with Tehran's needs. He said the proposal should be revised in future discussions. The next round of Iran-Russia talks is scheduled for 16 February.
11 January 2006 -- Leaders from the United States, Russia, and EU countries roundly condemn Iran for its resumption of nuclear-fuel activities. The leaders renew calls for referring the dispute to the UN Security Council.
3 January 2006 -- Iranian Atomic Energy Organization deputy head Mohammad Saidi told state television that Tehran will resume its nuclear-fuel research. The Iranian government confirmed the report on 9 January.
25 December 2005 -- Tehran formally rejects an offer from Moscow to enrich uranium for its nuclear program in Russia. Iranian officials insist upon Iran's right to enrich uranium on its own soil.
24 November 2005 -- A meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors postpones any action on Iran's nuclear program. The move is aimed at reopening negotiations on a Russian proposal for a compromise that would allow Iran to enrich uranium, but only in Russia and under strict controls.
15 October 2005 -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice holds talks in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The two officials disagree over Iran's nuclear program, with Lavrov maintaining the Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
12 October 2005 -- The EU issues a statement calling on Iran to continue negotiations with the EU-3 and to improve its human-rights record.
7 October 2005 -- IAEA head Muhammad el-Baradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency are jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, in part for their work in mediating the conflict over Iran's nuclear program.
28 September 2005 -- Iran's parliament votes to expedite a bill that would end voluntary IAEA inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities.
25 September 2005 -- Tehran rejects the IAEA report and Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki says his country remains committed to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
24 September 2005 -- The IAEA governing board adopts a resolution that says the nuclear watchdog, "after two and a half years of intensive inspections," remains unclear on "some important outstanding issues." "Iran's full transparency is indispensable and overdue," it continues, adding that the agency questions Iran's motives for not declaring certain factors and "pursuing a policy of containment." The resolution does not refer Iran to the UN Security Council, but it does hint at this possibility by noting that some of the outstanding questions are "within the competence of the Security Council. The resolution was approved by a vote of 22 in favor, 1 against (Venezuela), and 12 abstentions. (See also, "Iranian Government Reacts To IAEA Nuclear Resolution.")
17 September 2005 -- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad announces the Iranian position on the nuclear issue at the UN General Assembly. "Peaceful use of nuclear energy without possession of nuclear fuel cycle is an empty proposition," he said. He expressed concern about the creation of a nuclear "apartheid," and he calls for a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East. "In accordance with our religious principles, pursuit of nuclear weapons is prohibited," Ahmadinejad said. As a confidence-building measure, Ahmadinejad said, Iran is willing to partner with public and private groups in its uranium-enrichment program. He added that Iran will continue to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, he dismissed promises that other countries will be the source of fuel for the Iranian nuclear program.
The signing of the fuel agreement between Russia and Iran in February 2005 (epa)
August 2005 -- Iran rejects the EU proposal, which includes commercial and political cooperation in exchange for Iran's forsaking efforts to develop nuclear fuel. (See also, "IAEA Draft Resolution Expresses 'Serious Concern' Over Iran's Nuclear Activities.") The European proposal included an offer to help build a light-water reactor and then provide fuel for it. (Fuel for a light-water reactor is cannot be used for weapons.)
July 2005 -- President Khatami says on 19 July that Iran will not forsake the right to produce nuclear fuel and the enrichment suspension will not be permanent. He says on 27 July that activities at the Isfahan UCF could resume in days, depending on the concessions proposed at an Iran-EU meeting. "The system has already made its decision to resume Isfahan's activities," he said.
May 2005 -- Iranian officials repeat that activities at Isfahan UCF will resume "soon," but then Tehran agrees to wait for two months after Iranian and EU officials meet in Geneva.
April 2005 -- Supreme National Security Council Secretary Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani said on 30 April -- after the previous day's negotiations in London with British, French, and German representatives failed to yield substantive results -- Tehran is considering resumption of activities at the Isfahan uranium conversion facility (UCF).
February 2005 -- Iran and Russia sign an agreement on the return of spent nuclear fuel to Russia for reprocessing and storage. This measure is intended to eliminate the possibility that the materials will be used for making nuclear weapons. Fuel delivery will take place six months before the facility's completion, which should occur at the end of 2006.
January 2005 -- IAEA inspectors visit the Parchin military site, which is southwest of Tehran, to investigate allegations that the military tested conventional explosives that can be used to detonate nuclear weapons there.
December 2004 -- Talks between Iran and the EU-3 over political and economic concessions, in exchange for Iran making its enrichment suspension permanent, are scheduled to begin on 13 December (see "How Close Is Iran To The Bomb?").
November 2004 -- Iran holds talks in Paris with the EU-3. On 14 November, Iran signs an agreement to suspend uranium enrichment. The Europeans offer a series of political and economic concessions in exchange. But at an IAEA board of governors meeting from 25-29 November -- which was set to pass a resolution endorsing the deal and agreeing to monitor it -- Iran insists on an exemption for 20 centrifuges for research purposes. Iran eventually backs down, but demands -- and wins -- key changes softening the resolution in exchange. Most importantly, the resolution describes the enrichment freeze as a voluntary, rather than the legally binding commitment as both the United States and the EU sought. (See also, "The Iranian Nuclear Imbroglio.")
October 2004 -- The EU-3 again calls for Iran to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities to avoid its case being brought before the Security Council. The Europeans offer economic and political incentives in exchange. The Iranian parliament passes a bill approving the resumption of enrichment activities.
September 2004 -- An IAEA report calls Iran's claims about its nuclear program "plausible," but voices concern over Iran's decision to resume large-scale production of the feed material for enriching uranium. Claiming enrichment is a "sovereign right," Iran refuses to accept an unlimited suspension and says it will not stop manufacturing centrifuges. The IAEA gives Iran a 25 November deadline to reveal all its nuclear activities. Tehran later announces that it has resumed large-scale conversion of uranium yellowcake ore, a step toward uranium enrichment.
July 2004 -- Iran says it has resumed production of parts for centrifuges that are used for enriching uranium, but insists that it has not resumed its enrichment activities. The announcement appears to put the enrichment-freeze deal worked out between Iran, the EU-3, and the IAEA in jeopardy.
June 2004 -- IAEA says that inspectors found new traces of enriched uranium that exceeded the levels necessary for civilian energy production.
May 2004 -- Iran submits to the IAEA a 1,000-page report on its nuclear activities.
February 2004 -- Abdul Qadeer Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear program, says that he had provided atomic secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea since the late 1980s. IAEA inspectors notice similarities in designs and components for the advanced P-2 centrifuge, adding to suspicions that Khan supplied both North Korea and Iran with same nuclear know-how.
November 2003 -- An IAEA report states that at the moment there is no conclusive proof that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. The United States, seeking to have the matter sent to the UN Security Council, dismisses the conclusion. The IAEA's 35-member board of governors passes a resolution sternly rebuking Iran for covering up 18 years of atomic experiments, but does not send the matter to the Security Council.
October 2003 -- The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Great Britain travel to Tehran and persuade Iran to agree to stop enriching uranium and to sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT. The EU-3 also dangle economic concessions if Tehran cooperates fully with the IAEA. Iran turns over a declaration to the IAEA admitting to 18 years of covert atomic experiments, including the unreported uranium enrichment, although it continues to deny this was for a weapons program.
Students demonstrating in support of Iran's nuclear program at Isfahan in August 2005 (AFP)
July 2003 -- IAEA begins a fresh round of inspections in Iran.
June 2003 -- In a report, el-Baradei says inspections have demonstrated that "Iran failed to report certain nuclear materials and activities" and urges Tehran to cooperate with the agency. The report does not declare Iran in breach of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The IAEA requests that Iran sign the Additional Protocol to the NPT and allow unannounced inspections of its nuclear sites.
February 2003 -- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Muhammad el-Baradei visits Iran to verify Tehran's claims that its nuclear program is peaceful. IAEA inspectors later find traces of highly enriched uranium at Natanz and other sites.
August 2002 -- An Iranian exile opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, accuses Tehran of hiding a uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy-water plant at Arak.
(compiled by RFE/RL)
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Sister Of Iranian Protest Victim Detained By Tehran's Morality Police
The sister of Nika Shakarmi, a victim of the Women, Life, Freedom movement protests, has been detained by Tehran's morality police for failing to adhere to the Iran's mandatory hijab law.
Aida Shakarmi, a university student, was arrested in the Iranian capital on April 17 and remains in custody, her father said on Instagram.
Nika Shakarmi, a 16-year-old from Khorramabad residing in Tehran, was killed by security forces during nationwide protests that broke out following the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini while in the custody of the morality police for an alleged hijab offense.
Nika Shakarmi was missing for eight days after being chased by security officers during a protest before her body was discovered. Authorities attributed her death to a fall from a height, a claim her family disputes.
The Shakarmi family has faced continuous threats and harassment from security forces since as they actively pursued justice for their daughter.
The report of Aida Shakarmi's detention comes amid a new crackdown on women for not adhering to the hijab law. Enforcement intensified after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a directive during the recent Eid al-Fitr prayer sermon to step up measures against what he called "religious norm-breaking" within Iranian society.
Khamenei also emphasized the mandatory hijab law as a "definite religious decree," underscoring the obligation of all to adhere to this law the same as other legal decrees.
The resurgence of the morality police has sparked increased tensions and confrontations across various cities.
The hijab became compulsory for women and girls over the age of 9 in 1981, two years after the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The move triggered protests that were swiftly crushed by the new authorities. Many women have flouted the rule over the years and pushed the boundaries of what officials say is acceptable clothing.
Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By RFE/RL
U.S. Announces New Sanctions On Iran In Response To Attack On Israel
WASHINGTON -- The United States has announced new sanctions on Iran targeting its drone production capabilities after its attack on Israel, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement on April 18.
The sanctions designate 16 individuals and two entities enabling Iran’s drone production, including engine types that power Iran’s Shahed drones, which were used in the April 13 attack.
“These actors work on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), its UAV production arm, Kimia Part Sivan Company (KIPAS), and other Iranian manufacturers of UAVs and UAV engines,” the Treasury Department’s statement said.
The department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is also designating five companies in multiple jurisdictions providing component materials for steel production to Iran’s Khuzestan Steel Company (KSC), one of Iran’s largest steel producers, or purchasing KSC’s finished steel products.
Also targeted were three subsidiaries of Iranian automaker Bahman Group, which OFAC said had materially supported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department is imposing new controls to restrict Iran’s access to technologies, such as basic commercial grade microelectronics.
U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States and its allies had helped Israel beat back the April 13 missile and drone strike and were now holding Iran accountable with the new sanctions and export controls.
“The sanctions target leaders and entities connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran’s Defense Ministry, and the Iranian government’s missile and drone program that enabled this brazen assault," Biden said in a statement. "And our allies and partners have or will issue additional sanctions and measures to restrict Iran’s destabilizing military programs."
He added that the Group of Seven (G7) leaders are committed to acting together to increase economic pressure on Tehran.
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G7 industrial democracies on April 17 said they would "ensure close coordination of any future measure to diminish Iran's ability to acquire, produce, or transfer weapons to support destabilizing regional activities."
The Treasury Department’s statement noted that Britain is imposing sanctions targeting several Iranian military organizations, individuals, and entities involved in Iran’s drone and ballistic missile industries.
Britain said these sanctions included the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the IRGC Navy.
Tehran says it carried out the April 13 attack in retaliation for a presumed Israeli strike on April 1 on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus that killed two generals and several others.
With reporting by Reuters
- By AFP
German Foreign Minister Says G7 Needs 'Response' To Iran's Unprecedented Attack
The G7 must respond to Iran's attack on Israel, Germany's foreign minister said on April 18, adding that measures were being discussed with her counterparts at a meeting in Italy.
"We are also discussing further measures here at the G7, because of course there must be a response to this unprecedented incident," Annalena Baerbock said from the island of Capri.
She added however that "there must be no further escalation in the region; that would be fatal for its people."
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on April 18 painted a dark picture of the situation in the Middle East, warning that spiraling tensions over the war in Gaza and Iran's attack on Israel could devolve into a "full-scale regional conflict."
Guterres said Israel's military offensive in the Gaza Strip had created a "humanitarian hellscape" for civilians trapped there.
"The Middle East is on a precipice. Recent days have seen a perilous escalation," Guterres told a high-level Security Council meeting.
He said one miscalculation or miscommunication “could lead to the unthinkable --- a full-scale regional conflict.”
Iranian Journalist Arrested After Recounting Assault By Morality Police
Iranian journalist Dina Ghalibaf was arrested after she published a personal narrative about her previous detention by Iran’s morality police for not adhering to the mandatory hijab law.
Ghalibaf, a journalist and student of political science at Tehran’s Beheshti University, disclosed details of her arrest by law enforcement on April 15 for defying the compulsory hijab law, including that she was sexually assaulted during her detention. She was subsequently re-arrested by intelligence forces and taken to an undisclosed location.
Reports indicate that Ghalibaf was arrested at her residence. No information available on her whereabouts has been made available.
Ghalibaf's arrest coincides with the reimplementation of Iran’s Plan Noor initiative, under which the morality police have resumed operations and are strictly enforcing dress codes. This has led to several incidents of violence against women challenging the compulsory hijab, documented through numerous accounts, including Ghalibaf's.
According to Ghalibaf, during her initial detention, she was forcibly moved and subjected to electric shocks while handcuffed. She says a law enforcement officer also sexually assaulted her.
Following the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022, who died while detained by the morality police, and the subsequent nationwide protests it sparked, the presence of morality police vehicles in cities had noticeably decreased. Instead, the Islamic Republic employed individuals referred to as "hijab guards."
The new crackdown on women for not adhering to the hijab intensified after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a directive during the recent Eid al-Fitr prayer sermon to step up enforcement measures against what he called "religious norm-breaking" within Iranian society.
Khamenei also emphasized the mandatory hijab law as a "definite religious decree," underscoring the obligation of all to adhere to this the same as other legal decrees.
The resurgence of the morality police has sparked increased tensions and confrontations across various cities.
The hijab became compulsory for women and girls over the age of 9 in 1981, two years after the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The move triggered protests that were swiftly crushed by the new authorities. Many women have flouted the rule over the years and pushed the boundaries of what officials say is acceptable clothing.
Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Iranian Political Prisoners Launch Hunger Strike Over Wave Of Executions
A group of Iranian political prisoners around the country have launched a hunger strike to protest a wave of death sentences that could push Iran's execution rate even higher, human rights activists reported.
The hunger strike, which includes prisoners at the notorious Evin and Ghezel Hesar prisons, coincides with the 12th consecutive week of the "No to Execution Tuesdays" campaign, which has been ongoing in Iranian prisons to protest against the regime's use of the death penalty.
Sources within the prisons said that in recent days the government has quietly executed a large number of nonpolitical prisoners across the country as Iranians focus on rising tensions with Israel after Tehran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Iran's sworn enemy in an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil.
The sources added that many inmates also have been moved to solitary confinement in Ghezel Hesar and other prisons, a sign more executions could be carried out soon in what the protesting prisoners describe as a "new wave of repression and intimidation by the judicial and security apparatus."
Prisoners in Ghezel Hesar have been actively protesting through the "No to Execution Tuesdays Strike" campaign since February 29, aiming to draw attention to the widespread executions.
The campaign has gained momentum, with inmates from prisons such as Evin, Khorramabad, Karaj Central, Khoy, Naghadeh, Mashhad, and Saqqez joining in support.
The rate of executions in Iran has been rising sharply, particularly in the wake of the widespread protests following the September 2022 death of the 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was being held for an alleged head-scarf violation.
Two weeks ago, Amnesty International highlighted that at least 853 executions were carried out in Iran in 2023, marking a 48 percent increase from the previous year. The organization attributes this rise to the government's strategy of instilling fear among the populace against regime opposition.
In response to these ongoing issues, the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva renewed its special rapporteur's mandate on Iranian affairs on April 4, 2023.
Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Raisi Reiterates Warning As Israel Mulls Response To Weekend Air Attack
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has reiterated his warning to Israel that "the tiniest invasion" would trigger a swift and severe response amid global concerns over how the Jewish state will retaliate following a drone and missile attack on it orchestrated by Tehran over the weekend.
Speaking at a National Army Day parade on April 17 that was relocated without explanation, Raisi called the massive drone and missile attack in the early morning hours of April 14 a "limited action" and that an Israeli response on Iranian soil would be met with a "massive and harsh" answer. He made no further comment on what such a response would entail.
"If we had carried out a heavier operation, nothing would be left of Israel. But it was supposed to be a limited action," he said
Almost all of the more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran were shot down by Israeli defense systems, along with intercepts by forces from the United States, France, Britain, and Jordan.
An attack by Tehran had been widely anticipated in Israel following a suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, early last month that killed two brigadier generals.
Since then, diplomats and politicians around the world, fearing another major escalation of fighting in the Middle East, have urged restraint as they await Israel's response.
Israel and Iran have been bitter enemies for decades, but this was the first direct attack by one on the other's soil instead of through proxy forces or by targeting each other's assets operating in third countries.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on April 17 that Israel will decide how and whether it will respond to the unprecedented attack on its soil.
“I want to be clear: we will make our decisions ourselves. The state of Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself,” Netanyahu said at a cabinet meeting on April 17.
Netanyahu's statement came after the British and German foreign ministers said during separate visits to the Middle East that, while they were in solidarity with Israel in its right to respond, restraint is needed as well.
“Everyone must now act prudently and responsibly. I’m not talking about giving in. I’m talking about prudent restraint, which is nothing less than strength,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said.
“Because Israel has already shown strength with its defensive victory at the weekend,” she added.
Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Iran's Afghan Community Worried About Prospect Of War With Israel
Many in Iran are worried about the prospect of a war with Israel and the possible impact on the country’s faltering economy.
That includes members of Iran’s large community of Afghan refugees and migrants, one of the most vulnerable groups in society.
Experts have warned that a full-scale war is a possibility in the wake of Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel on April 13.
Afghans in Iran, speaking to RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi, described a wartime atmosphere in Iran since Tehran’s first-ever direct attack against Israel.
They also said the authorities have intensified their crackdown on undocumented Afghans, many of whom fled war, poverty, and persecution in Afghanistan.
"This situation is alarming for all Afghan migrants in Iran," said Omid Poya, an exiled Afghan journalist living in Iran. "Those who don’t have legal documents [to stay in Iran] don’t even leave their houses anymore.”
An Afghan migrant, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, said “Iranian cities are in an emergency-like situation” since the April 13 attack, referring to the deployment of additional law enforcement officers on the streets. This, he said, has “forced many of us to worry about our future.”
An estimated 4.3 million Afghans currently live in Iran, according to the UN. More than 1 million have been deported in the past year as part of Tehran’s plan to expel all undocumented Afghans.
Afghans suffer widespread abuse and discrimination in Iran, where they have often been blamed for insecurity and unemployment.
Life More Difficult
Many Afghans are worried that a possible war between Iran and Israel will worsen the already dire economic situation in the Islamic republic, which has witnessed soaring inflation, rising unemployment, and growing poverty in recent years.
Following Iran’s April 13 attack, the national currency, the rial, plummeted to a new record low against the U.S. dollar.
That has had a direct impact on the livelihoods of Afghans and how much money they can send back to their families in Afghanistan.
"Life has become more difficult after the dollar rose against the Iranian currency," said Azizgul Afghan Beg, an Afghan living in Tehran. "Our main concern is where we will escape if a war breaks out here.”
An estimated 70 percent of the estimated 3.6 million Afghans who have fled their homeland after the Taliban seized power in 2021 moved to Iran.
Afghans, including journalists, activists, and former soldiers and police officers, said they fear being forced to flee Iran and return to their homeland.
“Our lives will be in danger," Qadariah Rezaei, said an Afghan rights campaigner residing in Iran. Afghans would pay a “heavy price” if Tehran becomes embroiled in a conflict with Israel, she said.
Other Afghans say they are contemplating returning to Afghanistan.
"It is better to return to our homeland because of the mounting worries over war and the sharp slump in employment,” said Shamsul Rahman, an Afghan living in the southeastern city of Kerman.
Written by Abubakar Siddique based on reporting by RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi.
As Iran And Israel Escalate Conflict, Arab States Stick To Their Guns
As the world anxiously awaited the outcome of Iran's large-scale attack against Israel, some Arab countries had already taken steps to blunt its impact.
When the dust from the April 13 attack settled, the vast majority of the hundreds of drones and missiles launched by Iran had been shot down -- by Israel, its Western allies, and Jordan, despite its strong opposition to Israel's ongoing war in Gaza.
At least two other Arab states -- Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), which have been highly critical of the Gaza war and have joined Iran and other Muslim states in pushing for a cease-fire -- also reportedly played a role in intercepting the Iranian assault by sharing intelligence information.
The actions by the Sunni Arab countries, all of which have tenuous relationships with both Israel and majority-Shi'a Iran, led to speculation that they may have chosen sides. But experts say that their involvement in thwarting Iran's attack does not mark a major shift in their positions -- either for or against Israel or Iran.
Not Taking Sides
"Some went so far as saying that this is an indication that the threat perception among Arab states vis-à-vis Iran is rising, and the equation has changed and the Arab countries may side with Israel against Iran," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "I don't see the picture like that."
Azizi explained that the Arab countries' contribution, whether shooting down Iranian drones or missiles or providing intelligence, "was more about preventing a war than siding with one side against another."
On X, formerly Twitter, geopolitical and security analyst Michael Horowitz said that while several countries participated, directly or indirectly, in the effort to limit the impact of Iran's attack, Jordan clearly "acted out of self-interest."
WATCH: Listeners of RFE/RL's Radio Farda urged restraint on both sides as a Harvard professor of international relations said he didn't expect Israel to respond in the short term.
Noting that Iranian projectiles had flown over Jordanian airspace during the attack, Horowitz, the director of security consultancy Le Beck International, asked: "What sovereign country would let a third party fly hundreds of missiles and drones over major urban centers without budging?"
Others acted following significant pressure by Israel's key ally, the United States, he said, or out of "fear of a regional escalation." This fear, Horowitz said, alluding to recent steps by Saudi Arabia and others to improve ties with Tehran in recent years, "was the same fear of escalation that has led them to renew communication and broker normalization deals with Iran."
Gaza And Security Above All
Through the smoke of the Israel-Iran showdown, observers who spoke to RFE/RL said, Arab countries sent a message that their desire to maintain regional stability and to see a cease-fire in the Gaza war trumps all.
"I don't see any kind of change in the Arab states' approach toward Israel's war in Gaza," said Azizi. "They are still opposed to it and it seems to be still the main priority of the Arab world and the Muslim world, more broadly speaking."
In fact, Iran's attack -- which Tehran launched in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria on April 1 -- may have been seen by Arab states as an unwelcome distraction from the Gaza situation, according to Azizi.
"What might have irritated the Arab countries is not Iran's strike or retaliation, per se, but the timing of it amid all the efforts for bringing a cease-fire to stop the war," Azizi said. "And also in the sense that, you know, the [Iranian] attack has already shifted international focus from basically pressuring Israel into reconsidering its approach in Gaza to the Iran-Israel confrontation."
The other major considerations in the eyes of the Arab countries, Azizi said, were maintaining regional stability and avoiding a war with Iran.
"They simply don't want further instability in the region. They want to focus on their developmental projects. There are a lot of ambitious initiatives that all states separately or together have been pursuing. So, further instability would be a big challenge to that," Azizi said. "And the last thing they would want to have is a war with Iran itself."
Out Of The Shadows
Iran and Israel have long been engaged in a shadow war that followed a general code -- Iran used its proxies and partners in the so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel to strike against its archenemy, and Israel did not hesitate to hit Iran's militant partners.
This was underscored by the events of October 7, when the Iran-backed and U.S.- and EU-designated terror group Hamas launched a deadly assault on Israel that prompted Israel to invade the Gaza Strip to root out Hamas. The war has left tens of thousands of Palestinians dead and has been accompanied by attacks on Israel by Iranian-backed proxies, as well as strikes by Israel against Iranian-backed militants and even members of the Iranian military in the region.
But all the while, Iran and Israel were careful not to strike each other directly.
That changed with the April 1 aerial strike that targeted the grounds of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, which killed Iran's top regional commander and six other members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Blaming Israel for the deadly strike that hit a consular annex building, Iran vowed direct retaliation. And while it telegraphed its response 12 days later with advance warnings to regional states, Tehran's launching of hundreds of missiles and drones was a dangerous signal that Iran's "strategic patience" with Israel had run out and it was willing to take Israel on directly.
Speaking about the options Iran had prior to deciding to launch its barrage against Israel on April 13, experts who spoke to RFE/RL noted that it was Israel that took the first step to engage with its Iranian adversary directly.
"I think the one that [Iran] chose was one that signals that they took this seriously. They were trying to remind Israel that Israel might face military consequences if it continued [such] actions," Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. "But they didn't want to raise the ante to do something even more extensive or more damaging.
"I think the Iranians felt they had to respond, but wanted to do so in a way that didn't provoke a wider war," he added.
Now that Iran and Israel's long-standing conflict has emerged from the shadows, the question is whether it could spiral into a direct war or return to a proxy war.
Both Israel and Iran have suggested that their standoff is not over. Israel has vowed to respond to Iran's attack, without saying how or when. Iran has said that it considers its tit-for-tat with Israel concluded with its unprecedented attack on Israeli territory, while warning that even the "tiniest" retaliation on Iran's territory would bring a "massive and harsh" response.
"We are still in, in a sense, the realm of a shadow war, assuming that Israel does not now respond by hitting Iran back," Walt said. "Assuming it does not now escalate further, then I think we will see a return to the shadow war of the last few months."
Safety In Deniability
Azizi said that is something Iran was comfortable with, even in the event its interests or proxies were hit by Israel, because there was always "some room for deniability" that Iran itself was attacked.
On the other hand, Iran benefited from plausible deniability that it did not direct attacks on Israel carried out by its partners like Hamas, or Huthi rebels in Yemen, or Lebanese Hizballah.
By attacking Israel, Azizi said, "Iran actually abandoned plausible deniability, taking not only responsibility but credit." This, he added, "was an attempt to push Israel toward the old rules of engagement -- to say, let's go back to the gray zone."
None of the actors on the sidelines -- including the United States, which has worked to improve or establish relations between Israel and Arab states, and Russia, which commended Iran's attack on Israel as justified -- wants to see an all-out war.
Those closest to the conflict, the Arab states, have made it clear that they want stability and an end to the Gaza war. Some major players and regional rivals of Iran -- notably Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. -- have in recent years restored their relations with Tehran in an effort to minimize the threat.
While Arab countries have criticized and, in some cases, helped thwart Iran's attack on Israel, they did not condemn Tehran for its actions. Iran, while sending a vague warning that Jordan could be "the next target," has avoided criticism following months of diplomacy with Arab states over the Gaza war and humanitarian crisis.
"I think both sides (Iran and Arab states) are quite clear that they want to continue going toward this path," Azizi said, even suggesting a possible mediation role for an Arab country in resolving the Iran-Israel crisis.
Written and reported by Michael Scollon with contributions by Radio Farda correspondent Saeed Jafari.
- By AP
U.K. Says Israel 'Making Decision To Act' As Iran Vows To Respond To Any Incursion
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on April 17 that Israel “is making a decision to act” in response to Iran's missile and drone attack over the weekend, while Iran warned that even the “tiniest” invasion of its territory would bring a “massive and harsh” response. Israel has vowed to respond to Iran's unprecedented attack without saying when or how, leaving the region bracing for further escalation after months of unrest linked to the ongoing war in Gaza.
- By dpa
Iran Says UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Will Visit Tehran
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, will shortly be travelling to Tehran to resume nuclear talks with the Iranian side, a top Iranian official said on April 17. "We have good cooperation with the IAEA and the IAEA chief will also come to Tehran soon to continue the bilateral talks and update them, so to speak," Iran's nuclear boss, Mohammad Eslami, said, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA. Grossi said in an interview with CNN on April 16 that he was "considering" visiting Tehran.
- By Reuters
Crew Of Ship Seized By Iran Safe, Operator MSC Says
The 25 crew members of the MSC Aries, which was seized by Iran on April 13, are safe, shipping firm MSC said, adding that discussions with Iranian authorities were in progress to secure their earliest release. "We are also working with the Iranian authorities to have the cargo discharged," the company said. Portugal's Foreign Ministry summoned Iran's ambassador to condemn a weekend attack on Israel by Tehran and to demand the immediate release of the Portuguese-flagged container ship. MSC leases the Aries from Gortal Shipping, an affiliate of Zodiac Maritime. Zodiac is partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.
Yerevan Assures Iran That South Caucasus Won't Turn Into Field Of 'Geopolitical Competition,' Envoy Says
Iran says it has received assurances from Armenia regarding its concerns about the potential escalation of geopolitical competition in the South Caucasus stemming from the Armenian leader's recent high-level discussions with U.S. and EU officials in Brussels.
Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mehdi Sobhani said on April 16 that Tehran had a discussion with Armenian authorities about the trilateral meeting on April 5 between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Western powers said the meeting was focused on helping Armenia increase its resilience and diversify its economy, which is still heavily dependent on Russia.
Sobhani said Armenian authorities told him that the meeting was "not directed against any third country" and was meant to "strengthen the economy of Armenia and to receive humanitarian aid and support for those displaced from Karabakh."
Iran does not oppose Armenia’s efforts to develop its economy and solve the problems of the people displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh, Sobhani said at a news conference in Yerevan. This is Armenia's right, he said.
"Our concern is that Armenia and the [South] Caucasus should not turn into an arena for geopolitical competition and that the development of Armenia's foreign relations should not be at the expense of other countries," Sobhani said.
"And the Armenian authorities have informed us that the diversification of their country's foreign policy is not directed against Armenia-Iran relations."
The Iranian ambassador also defined the "extra-regional forces" whose intervention in the South Caucasus would be considered dangerous by Tehran. These would be forces unrelated to any security or geopolitical issues of the region, he said.
“That is, they come here from across the ocean and try to make decisions for the people of this region,” Sobhani said.
Asked whether members of the EU mission who have been monitoring the Armenian-Azerbaijani border since last year are considered "extra-regional forces," the Iranian ambassador said, "Yes, some European countries and the United States are."
Meanwhile, the Iranian diplomat said that Tehran's "red lines" regarding borders in the South Caucasus have not changed.
"Iran has expressed its opposition to the change of internationally recognized borders at the highest level, at the level of the head of the country, and it cannot be ignored," he said.
"We are categorically against the change of any geopolitical and internationally recognized borders. If there are problems on the border, they should be solved on the basis of dialogue, mutual understanding, with the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries respected," Sobhani said.
Baku and Yerevan have been conducting negotiations over their respective borders for decades, but the process took on new urgency after Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh amid a swift military offensive in September 2023.
Unlike in the past, the talks are now being conducted one-on-one without Russian, U.S., or EU mediators.
- By RFE/RL
EU To Begin Work On Expanding Sanctions Against Iran As Israeli War Cabinet Meets Again
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says he will request that the EU’s diplomatic service start work on an expansion of sanctions in response to Tehran's weekend attack on Israel.
Borrell made the comment on April 16 after an emergency video conference of EU foreign ministers called to discuss the repercussions of the attack and as Israel's war cabinet was set to meet again to decide its response to Iran's weekend attack.
Borrell said the EU needs to coordinate the European response to the first-ever attack on Israel launched from the territory of Iran, which he said "certainly represents a major escalation of an already very tense situation in the region."
The ministers "took a strong stance asking all actors in the region to move away from the abyss" during their video conference, he said.
Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi said on April 15 that the launch of more than 300 missiles and drones from Iran at Israeli territory "will be met with a response" but gave no details.
The attack caused no deaths and little damage, but it has increased fears that violence will spread beyond the current war in the Gaza Strip and throughout the Middle East.
Iran launched the attack in retaliation for an air strike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 attributed to Israel. At the same time Tehran signaled that it did not seek further escalation.
President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the weekend that the United States would not participate in an Israeli counterstrike.
Washington instead said it would strive to toughen economic and political sanctions against Iran.
Meanwhile, Israel has begun writing to 32 countries to ask them to place sanctions on Iran's missile program and join Washington in designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist group.
Earlier on April 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi by phone about what the Kremlin called "retaliatory measures taken by Iran." Putin urged all sides to refrain from action that would trigger a new confrontation, which would be fraught with catastrophic consequences for the region, the Kremlin said.
In his first publicly aired comments on Iran's attack, Putin said the root cause of the current instability in the Middle East was the unresolved conflict between Palestinians and Israel.
Raisi's office gave a slightly different interpretation of the call, saying Putin said Iran's response was "the best way to punish the aggressor and show the wisdom and rationality of Iran's leaders."
The statement also said Raisi declared that Iran would respond more severely, extensively, and painfully than ever to any action against Iran's interests.
Also on April 16, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was "the main one responsible" for Iran's first direct attack on Israel.
"Those who have been silent for months about Israel's aggressive attitude immediately condemned the Iranian response," said Erdogan, who regularly criticizes Israel and its leadership. "But it's Netanyahu himself who is the first who should be condemned."
He said Israel's attack in Damascus violated international law and "was the straw that broke the camel's back."
With reporting by Reuters and AFP
- By RFE/RL's Radio Farda and
- Saeid Jafari
'Everyone Is Against Us': Iranian RFE/RL Listeners' War Worries
Senior Israeli government ministers are reportedly still debating how the country will respond to an Iranian attack in which more than 300 missiles and drones were fired directly at the country. Listeners to RFE/RL's Radio Farda urged restraint on both sides as a Harvard professor of international relations said he didn't expect Israel to respond in the short term.
- By Reuters
U.S. To Hit Iran With New Sanctions, Yellen Says; U.S. Looking To Use Russian Assets For Ukraine
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on April 16 warned that the United States intends to hit Iran with new sanctions over its unprecedented attack on Israel, and these actions could seek to reduce Iran's capacity to export oil.
"I fully expect that we will take additional sanctions action against Iran in the coming days," Yellen told a news conference in Washington.
The United States has taken previous action to contain Iran's "destabilizing" behavior by diminishing its ability to export oil, she said.
"Clearly, Iran is continuing to export some oil. There may be more that we could do."
The United States and its Group of Seven (G7) allies are continuing to explore a range of possibilities to unlock the value of nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on April 16.
She said Ukraine needed ongoing streams of support, and that is driving the quest to monetize the frozen Russian assets.
She also said the United States and the G7 were absolutely committed to Ukraine's support and urged Congress to approve military aid, calling it "a humanitarian and moral imperative."
With reporting by Reuters
- By Kian Sharifi
'Nightmare Scenario': The Risks Of Escalation As Israel Mulls Iran Response
Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel has put the Middle East in uncharted territory.
Tehran fired scores of drones and missiles at Israel on April 13, its first-ever direct attack on its archfoe.
In the wake of the assault, Israel has been weighing up its options, which analysts say could range from a diplomatic offensive to isolate Iran to directing military strikes on the Islamic republic.
With the risk of escalation higher than ever, the worst-case scenario of an all-out war between Iran and Israel is a distinct possibility, analysts say.
"Israel will have to take intentions into account, not just results, and this means there is a case that is going to be made in Israel for a response inside Iran -- with all the risks that come with it," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.
While neither Iran nor Israel may want an escalation, "the dance they've engaged in -- trying to 'out-deter' the other -- is a very dangerous one," Horowitz said.
Iran's attack was retaliation for the suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy's compound in Syria on April 1 that killed seven Iranian commanders, including two generals.
Suspected Israeli air strikes have killed at least 18 members of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of Iran's armed forces, in Syria since December.
Iran's April 13 attack appeared to be highly choreographed and not intended to cause significant damage or casualties.
'Nightmare Scenario'
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said Israel has "no choice" but to respond to Iran's attack. Tehran, however, has warned its response will be "stronger" and "more extensive" if Israel retaliates.
The IRGC's chief commander Major General Hossein Salami, on April 14 said Iran's operation -- dubbed Honest Promise -- had "changed the equation" and Tehran would respond to Israeli actions rather than exercise "strategic patience."
"Iran wants a paradigm shift and has said that from now on, every Israeli action will receive a similar response," Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow with the Washington Institute, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.
Any direct Israeli military action against Iran could trigger a full-blown war between Israel and Iran -- what Horowitz calls the "nightmare scenario."
Such a scenario could drag in the United States, Israel's key ally, and trigger attacks on Israel by Iranian proxies and pro-Iranian militant groups in the region, including Lebanon's Hizballah, Yemen's Huthi rebels, and Shi'ite militias in Iraq and Syria.
"If we reach this point, we may see weeks of Israeli strikes in Iran, the full-scale engagement of Hizballah in an attack against Israel, an Israeli ground incursion in Lebanon, and Iranian attempts to close the Persian Gulf," Horowitz said.
Iran has for years threatened to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a major route for world oil supplies.
Even in the absence of a direct Israeli attack on Iran, "a cycle of tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel could get us there, if outside parties don't act as they did so far to de-escalate tensions," Horowitz warned.
'Level Of Uncertainty'
Many global powers and regional actors have called for de-escalation, including the United States, which has called on Israel to show restraint.
U.S. President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington will not support an offensive strike against Iran, according to reports.
"The United States has enormous leverage over Israel, if it chooses to use it," Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda. "It has not been using its leverage.... Now, with the possibility of a wider war looming, it appears the Biden administration has told Israel that if they do anything more, they're on their own."
While it is not impossible for Israel to ignore Washington and take matters into its own hands, Walt said the odds of a regional conflict were slim because "most of the actors in the region do not want this to happen."
He said the only groups that "might have an interest" in a wider war are Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, and Netanyahu's hard-line government.
Even so, there would be no real winners in a broader conflict, according to Horowitz.
"There is just no predicting how any of the warring sides will come out of an escalation, and this level of uncertainty generally isn't good for anyone," he said.
With reporting by Elaheh Ravanshad and Saeid Jafari
- By Reuters
Israeli War Cabinet To Meet For Third Time On Response To Iran's Attack
Israel's war cabinet was set to meet for the third time in three days on April 16, an official said, to decide on a response to Iran's first-ever direct attack, amid international pressure to avoid further escalating conflict in the Middle East. Military chief of staff Herzi Halevi had promised that Saturday night's launch of more than 300 missiles, cruise missiles and drones from Iran into Israeli territory "will be met with a response," but gave no details. While the attack caused no deaths and little damage, it has increased concerns that violence rooted in the Gaza war is spreading.
Wave Of Complaints Follows Police Hijab Crackdown In Tehran
The stricter enforcement of the mandatory hijab law by Tehran police has prompted a wave of complaints from Iranians who say police are using aggressive and sometimes violent tactics in their treatment of alleged violators.
Tehran Police Chief Abbasali Mohammadian announced a ratcheting up of enforcement of the new "hijab and chastity" bill from April 13 even though the legislation had yet to be approved by the country's Guardian Council.
According to reports, some citizens said their car windows were smashed by baton-wielding officers as they sought violators, while others recounted aggressive confrontations with state motorcycle patrols.
It was also reported that Nafiseh Latifian and Negar Abedzadeh, the wife and daughter of legendary soccer goalkeeper Ahmadreza Abedzadeh, were among those detained on Tehran's Fereshteh Street for allegedly violating hijab regulations.
"The two were detained for causing tensions and clashing with officers," the Fars News Agency, which is aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), reported.
Even though the Guardian Council has yet to approve the law, a necessary step in it becoming official, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a directive during the Eid al-Fitr prayer sermon for enforcement of measures against what he called "religious norm-breaking" within Iranian society.
Khamenei also emphasized the mandatory hijab law as a "definite religious decree," underscoring the obligation of all to adhere to this and other legal decrees.
The "hijab and chastity" bill, which passed in parliament last year without public discussion, came in reaction to a wave of protests and defiance by women against being forced to wear the head covering. However, the approval process is still ongoing after some objections by the Guardian Council, including questions over how the law will be enforced.
Ahmadreza Radan, a senior police official, discussed the stepped-up measures, telling the Mehr news agency that in cases involving vehicles, a warning is issued on the first offense.
"On the second, the vehicle is detained on site and then impounded," he added.
Radan also spoke about the Noor Plan, which targets businesses and individuals accused of failing to adhere to hijab norms. He described it as a response to demands from "devout citizens," with businesses facing closure for repeated violations.
The renewed focus on the mandatory hijab enforcement arrives as numerous reports suggest a decline in adherence to the headscarf among Iranian women in Tehran and other cities following widespread protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini while in custody of the morality police in 2022 for an alleged hijab violation.
The hijab became compulsory for women and girls over the age of 9 in 1981, two years after the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The move triggered protests that were swiftly crushed by the new authorities. Many women have flouted the rule over the years and pushed the boundaries of what officials say is acceptable clothing.
The death of Amini released a wave of anger that has presented the Islamic regime with its biggest challenge since the revolution.
The Women, Life, Freedom protests and civil disobedience against the compulsory hijab have swept the country, involving tens of thousands of Iranians, many of whom were already upset over the country's deteriorating living standards.
Campaigns were also launched against the discriminatory law, although many have been pressured by the state and forced to leave the country.
Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda
John Bolton Says Strong Israeli Response To Iran Attack Would Be Justified
PRAGUE -- Former U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton says Israel is entitled to retaliate against Iran for its weekend attack, including destroying its nuclear weapons program, and stands by his comment that President Joe Biden is "an embarrassment" for urging Israel not to respond.
In an interview with Current Time, Bolton said if Iran targeted the United States using hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones as it did on April 13 against Israel, Washington would retaliate at a minimum by destroying the bases and facilities from which the attacks were launched.
"I am firmly of the belief that if the U.S. faced that kind of attack, there's no doubt [what] we would do. Why should we deny the Israelis the right to…react the same way we would?"
Bolton spoke with Current Time from Washington as Israel weighs its response to Iran's attack, which Iran said was in response to a suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, last month that killed two brigadier generals.
Almost all of the missiles and drones were shot down by Israeli defense systems or intercepted by forces from the United States, France, Britain, and Jordan.
Biden has said he wants to prevent the conflict in the Middle East from spreading and urged caution, telling Israel to "think carefully and strategically" before launching a response against Iran that could trigger a wider war.
But Bolton, known as a proponent of American hard power, said that because Israel can't be sure that the next ballistic missiles launched from Iran won't contain nuclear warheads, it is in Israel's long-term interests to consider responding by destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program. And if Israel decided to do so, the United States should support the move, he said.
The April 13 attack has raised fears of another major escalation of fighting in the Middle East, and the risks are high because "we're in uncharted territory," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.
A full-scale war is the nightmare scenario that could be triggered by an Israeli attack on nuclear sites in Iran, Horowitz said in an interview with RFE/RL on April 15.
"If we reach this point, we may see weeks of Israeli strikes in Iran, the full-scale engagement of Hizballah in an attack against Israel, an Israeli ground incursion in Lebanon, and Iranian attempts to close the Persian Gulf," Horowitz said.
The region is now "closer to such a scenario than we were before," and even if there is no specific trigger, a cycle of tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel "could get us there if outside parties don't act as they did so far to de-escalate tensions."
Bolton wrote the book Surrender Is Not An Option: Defending America At The United Nations after serving as U.S. ambassador to the UN from August 2005 until December 2006. As undersecretary of state for arms control and international security from 2001 to 2005, he advocated tough measures against the nuclear weapons programs of both Iran and North Korea.
In his interview with Current Time, a Russian-language network run by RFE/RL in cooperation with VOA, Bolton said Israel is already engaged in a war in the Gaza Strip against Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the EU, and has been attacked by Hizballah militants from the north.
In addition, he noted that Huthi rebels in Yemen backed by Iran have targeted international shipping in the Red Sea and there have been attacks by Iran-aligned militant groups in Iraq and Syria.
Bolton accused the Biden administration of refusing to look at the conflict in the Middle East in a strategic sense. He also said that all the terrorist groups operating in the region are armed, equipped, trained, and financed by Iran, thus as strong response is justified.
"Iran is the puppet master here. That's the wider war we're already in," he told Current Time. "This is not separate battles between Israel and Hamas and Gaza, or the Huthis trying to close the Red Sea in the Suez Canal to international commercial traffic. This is all controlled by Iran," he added.
He defended his criticism of Biden as "an embarrassment," saying the wider war that the U.S. administration and others say they fear already began on October 7, the day that Hamas militants attacked Israeli towns, taking around 250 hostages and killing more than 1,100 people. More than 100 hostages are still in captivity.
Bolton, who spent 17 months as an adviser to former President Donald Trump, said he could not predict what Israel's response will be nor the outcome of an Israeli war cabinet meeting on April 15, but said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows the Iran nuclear threat "better than anyone else in Israel or, frankly, in the United States."
If forced to predict, he said, he would say the response would be "lower level" and would come within a few days.
Bolton, Trump's third national-security adviser, was asked for his resignation in September 2019 after months of division over the direction of foreign and national-security policy.
Bolton wrote a book the following year about his time serving in the White House. The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir angered Trump for portraying him as ignorant of basic geopolitical facts. The White House tried to stop the book's release, but a judge denied its request. Trump reacted to the publication by calling Bolton "incompetent" and "a boring fool."
With reporting by Kian Sharifi
- By Ksenia Sokolyanskaya and
- Current Time
John Bolton: Israel Has Right To Respond To Iranian Attack
Former U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton said in an April 15 interview with Current Time's Ksenia Sokolyanskaya that "if the United States were attacked with more than 320 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, we would retaliate." He added: "Why should we deny the Israelis the right to do that, to respond the same way we would?" When asked if Iran is now a greater threat to world peace than Russia, he replied that Russia will remain a threat until "Putin regime is removed from power in Russia and democracy gets another chance."
'The Best' For Putin: How The Kremlin Stands To Gain From Iran's Attack On Israel
After several hours of silence following Iran’s unprecedented missile-and-drone attack on Israel, Russia issued its first formal reaction: The Foreign Ministry voiced what it said was Moscow’s “extreme concern” over “the latest dangerous escalation in the region.”
There may be some truth to that statement, as analysts say that a full-scale war in the Middle East would not be in the interests of President Vladimir Putin’s government. For now, though, it seems more likely that the Kremlin is enthusiastic about a development that could play into Putin’s hands in several ways, most of them directly connected to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
“The Middle East entering uncharted territory (short of full-blown war) is the best that can happen to Putin now,” Hanna Notte, a senior associate with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Here’s why.
For one thing, it draws attention away from the war in Ukraine at a crucial time when Kyiv is facing major challenges on the front line, which could get worse in the coming weeks and months, and Russia is pounding the country’s energy infrastructure with renewed intensity and bombarding cities including Kharkiv and Odesa.
The outbreak in October of Israel’s war against Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union, had already complicated global perceptions of the war in Ukraine and confounded Western efforts to support its defense against the Russian invasion. The new flare-up in the Middle East -- the first time Iran has openly and directly attacked arch-enemy Israel, or vice versa -- may exacerbate that problem for Kyiv.
'A Chance To Challenge'
For the Kremlin, the potential benefits to be reaped from Iran’s attack on Israel are both broad and quite specific. In over two years since he launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he has increasingly portrayed the war there as part of a wider confrontation in which, he asserts, Russia is defending itself and the rest of the world from the West and, in particular, the United States.
Against that zero-sum backdrop, Iran’s attack on Israel may play into the Kremlin’s propaganda, handing Russia new material it can use to press its public narratives about the war in Ukraine and its showdown with the West.
“There is a certain perception among the axis states -- Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China -- that the West has weakened. And [that] American attitudes and policies can no longer guarantee the security of its allies,” Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies in Kyiv, told Current Time, the Russian-language network run by RFE/RL in cooperation with VOA.
As a result, the Iranian attack provides Russia and like-minded states with “a chance to challenge this unipolar world that Putin, [Chinese President] Xi Jinping, and [Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah] Ali Khamenei have talked a lot about,” he said.
Instability in the Middle East “diverts Western attention and resources away from Ukraine and NATO's Eastern flank, it generates insecurity among U.S. regional allies, and it further fuels a broader, global perception that the West cannot pacify the region, thus amplifying perceptions of the Gaza war,” Notte told RFE/RL in a written exchange on April 15.
“In sum, such instability fuels a global perception that the war in Ukraine is another war among many, one problem amid a proliferation of problems -- a perception which the Kremlin can only value,” she said.
In practice, the array of problems and the attack itself could dilute the case for aid to Ukraine, undermining arguments by champions of such support that the fate of the West and the world hangs in the balance.
Clouds In Congress?
Specifically, the Iranian attack on Israel adds a new element to the uncertainty over the prospects for long-delayed U.S. aid for Ukraine -- even as the prospect of passage of legislation on the matter is finally looming larger.
Nearly six months after U.S. President Joe Biden first proposed a package including more than $60 billion in mostly military aid for Ukraine as well as aid for Israel and other purposes, the current speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, had indicated at the end of March that he would seek to secure support for Ukraine in the coming days or weeks.
However, it was unclear exactly what he would propose, how much it would differ from a bill that was passed with bipartisan support in the Senate in February, and whether the effort to renew U.S. supplies of desperately needed weapons to Ukraine could overcome opposition from staunch opponents of aid for Kyiv in his own party.
On April 15, Johnson provided more clarity, saying he plans to press for separate bills on three of the elements in the Senate legislation -- aid for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan and other allies -- and to placate recalcitrant Republicans by introducing a fourth measure including policies that many lawmakers in his party favor. The fate of the package is uncertain.
Seeking Disbalance
Regardless of the outcome of wrangling over aid in the United States, Putin may see the Iranian attack on Israel as a chance to increase Moscow’s influence in the Middle East, where rebuilding the clout that dried up drastically after the Soviet collapse seems to have been deeply important to Putin since he came to power a quarter century ago.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has tightened its ties with Iran, which has supported the onslaught by providing attack drones and the technology to produce them, but Putin has for years been courting regional foes of Iran, including Israel and Persian Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, as part of his efforts to increase Moscow’s sway in the Middle East and bite into U.S. clout.
The Kremlin may hope that despite the way its sharper turn toward Tehran and its response to the Israel-Hamas war have harmed its relations with Israel, Moscow’s multitentacled Middle East ties could give it a substantial regional role to play in the coming months or years.
“Since Russia is an increasingly close partner to Iran, the Kremlin might…calculate that with Iran stepping up the escalation ladder, Russia's own value to [and] leverage over the Gulf states will increase -- since the Gulf states might look to Moscow (and Beijing) as the only players with some leverage in Tehran, and hence as interlocutors who could help rein in the Iranians,” Notte told RFE/RL.
It’s a classic approach for Putin’s Russia: help create problems, to one degree or another, and then offer help to resolve them -- in a way that benefits the Kremlin. As they have amid the Hamas attack on Israel and the resulting war in Gaza, however, analysts of Russia and the region say that Moscow does not want an all-out war between Israel and Iran.
“That scenario would bring significant risks for Russia,” Notte said. It would complicate Russia’s military presence in Syria, and a heavy hit to Iran could sap some of Moscow’s strength against Ukraine.
Furthermore, “a full-blown war would almost certainly end Russia's balancing act in the region (however tenuous it has become already). It would force Russia to choose sides.”
While Moscow has come ever closer to Iran and its proxies since it launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, she said, “it doesn’t want to go ‘all in’ with Iran, for sure.”
Current Time contributed to this report.
Iran Takes Legal Action Against Analyst, Newspaper Over Criticism Of Israel Attack
Iran's judiciary has initiated legal proceedings against the Tehran-based Etemad newspaper and political analyst Abbas Abdi over comments related to the Islamic republic's interactions with Israel, according to the Mizan News Agency.
Mizan, which is linked to the judiciary, reported on April 14 that the action is aimed at countering those “disrupting societal psychological security.”
Abdi, an analyst considered close to Iranian reformists, commented on Iran's strike on Israel over the weekend in an article published in Etemad saying Israel's recent actions were a reaction, not an act of aggression, and that Tehran did not need to respond.
He also criticized the Islamic republic's strategy of deterrence, saying the use of conventional weapons against a nation whose existence Iran does not recognize or seeks to annihilate is futile and has a disproportionate cost compared to any potential benefits.
Mizan also reported legal actions against the economic newspaper Jahan Sanat and an unnamed economic journalist following their evaluations of the IRGC's missile and drone attacks on Israel and their repercussions on financial markets.
Legal scholar Mohsen Barhani criticized the charges as unfounded, saying the criminal articles used against the publication and author don't exist under current Iranian law.
In a related development, the IRGC's Intelligence Organization issued a warning on social media platforms cautioning users against expressing support for Israel, underscoring ongoing surveillance and potential consequences for users aligning with or endorsing Iran's sworn enemy. The organization also encouraged individuals to report any pro-Israeli activities among their peers.
Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles late on April 13. The "vast majority" were largely intercepted by Israel's air-defense systems and those of its allies.
Written by Ardeshir Tayebi based on an original story in Persian by RFE/RL's Radio Farda
- By Ray Furlong and
- RFE/RL's Radio Farda
Iranians Voice Concern Following Attack On Israel
Despite images of celebrating crowds on the streets of Tehran, RFE/RL listeners in Iran have contacted us to voice apprehension about the possible consequences of their country's massive attack on Israel.
- By RFE/RL
'On The Brink': Leaders Call For Restraint As World Awaits Israeli Response To Iran Attack
Leading diplomats and politicians across the globe, fearing another major escalation of fighting in the Middle East, urged restraint as the world waited for Israel's response after it endured an unprecedented air attack by Iran over the weekend.
Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel late on April 13, almost all of which were shot down by Israeli defense systems, along with intercepts by forces from the United States, France, Britain, and Jordan.
Only a few missiles reached Israeli territory, causing modest damage to an air base and critically wounding a 7-year-old girl.
Israel and Iran have been bitter enemies for decades, but this was the first direct attack by one on the other's soil instead of through proxy forces or by targeting each other's assets operating in third countries.
The Israeli war cabinet met on April 15 as some hard-liners within the right-wing government were said to be advocating a harsh response, while others were pushing for a more moderate decision.
The Israeli military's chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, said the country would respond but provided no details.
"This launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles, and drones into Israeli territory will be met with a response," he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised victory, while an influential member of the war cabinet said the country will retaliate in the "fashion and time" of its choosing.
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed alarm over the situation.
"We're on the edge of the cliff and we have to move away from it," said Borrell. "We have to step on the brakes and reverse gear."
The United States reiterated its "ironclad commitment" to the security of Israel but reportedly told the Jewish state it will not take part in any retaliatory action.
When asked about Joe Biden's call with Netanyahu over the weekend, White House national-security spokesman John Kirby declined to say whether the U.S. president had urged the Israeli leader to exercise restraint in responding to the attack.
"We don't want to see a war with Iran. We don't want to see a regional conflict," Kirby said, adding that it was up to Israel to decide "whether and how they'll respond."
Countries including France, Belgium, and Germany summoned the Iranian ambassadors. The French Foreign Ministry said France was working with its partners to de-escalate the situation.
While Russia, seen as close to Tehran, has stopped short of publicly criticizing Iran for the attack on Israel, the Kremlin said on April 15 that "further escalation is in no one's interests" and called on finding a solution through "political and diplomatic methods."
Iran, which said it was responding to a suspected Israeli air strike on the Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus early last month that killed two brigadier generals, called on Western nations to "appreciate" the restraint it had showed since the embassy attack and warned it will act more "resolutely" if "Israel crosses red lines."
Speaking late on April 14 at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for "maximum restraint" amid fears that Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel could turn into a larger regional war.
“The Middle East is on the brink.... Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate,” Guterres said.
After the meeting ended without any resolution, U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said "there has to be a Security Council response to what happened.”
U.S. officials said Washington had been in indirect contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries before and after the attack, without providing details, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani cautioned on April 15 that no prearranged deal was made with any country regarding how Tehran would approach its military response to Israel.
WATCH: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that his country would emerge victorious following an unprecedented attack from Iran. According to the Israeli military, over 300 drones and missiles were intercepted during the aerial assault by Iran, its first-ever direct attack on Israel.
Israel's retaliatory war in Gaza was sparked by an October 7 raid on Israeli territory carried out by Hamas, which rules Gaza and is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. The raid left more than 1,100 people dead and hundreds of people were taken hostage.
The ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip aimed at destroying Hamas has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinian territory's Hamas-run Health Ministry.
Since the war in Gaza began, Tehran has openly supported militant groups and proxies targeting Israel that are part of Iran's "axis of resistance" against Israel and the West, leading to concerns of a broader Middle East conflict involving archenemies Iran and Israel.
With reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Farda, AP, and Reuters
- By Reuters
Jordan Summons Iranian Ambassador To Protest Interference In Its Afairs
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi on April 14 said his country had summoned the Iranian ambassador to protest against Iranian comments that were interference in the kingdom's internal affairs. In remarks given to the state-owned Mamlaka public broadcaster, Safadi was referring to comments in Iran's official media in recent days that warned Jordan would be the next target in the event it cooperated with Israel in a showdown with Iran.
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