Moscow, May 24 (RFE/RL) -- A report prepared by leading Russian policy
analysts says re-creation of a Moscow-led union of former Soviet states
early next century looks "quite feasible" in the form of a voluntary
The report, first obtained and summarized last month by the American
news magazine "Newsweek," is titled: "Will the Union Revive? Outlook for the
Post-Soviet Space." The report was published in full yesterday in the
independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The authors include a number of reform-oriented analysts.
The report assesses "probability" of confederation, saying the
"probability is fairly high" for Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia. Probability, according to the
report, is also relatively high for Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Georgia and
Moldova, a bit lower for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, while Latvia is
very low, but the possibility of re-integration is not excluded.
The report says the probabilities for Estonia and Lithuania are almost
The report is signed by Sergei Karaganov, the Deputy Director of the
Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Among other
authors are: Vitaly Tretyakov, editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya
Gazeta; and prominent State Duma deputies Alexei Arbatov, Irina
Khakamada and Sergei Shakhrai. Others include members of the National
Security Council, the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Institute
of Strategic Studies.
The study says that only the formation of a new confederation could
halt Russia's shrinking global influence.