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East: EBRD Issues Projections On Eastern Growth

  • Ron Synovitz

London, 23 April 2001 (RFE/RL) -- The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says the global economic slowdown will mean lower growth than last year across Central and Eastern European and the former Soviet republics.

Forecasts released by the EBRD yesterday (22 April) say that the Gross Domestic Product for the region as a whole will grow by about 3.7 percent. That compares to about 5.4 percent overall GDP growth last year.

EBRD Chief Economist Willem Buiter says the favorable economic environment that propelled the region for most of last year is fading. He says falling world oil prices and the rising real value of the ruble means the pace of GDP growth in Russia will slow to about 3.4 percent for this year. Russia's economic performance could impact the growth of other former Soviet republics that are closely tied to the ruble.

Meanwhile, with the global economy deteriorating, it could be more difficult for Eastern countries to obtain external financing than in the past.

The forecasts were released as officials from across Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics gather in London for the EBRD's annual board meeting. Plenary sessions start today.

Regional and Country-by-Country breakdown on GDP Forecasts for 2001

The following table shows the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's economic growth forecasts for 2001 and economic performance last year (2000).

The EBRD says that overall GDP growth for Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic States, Southeastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States will fall to 3.7 percent this year from 5.4 percent last year. Here is the EBRD's regional and country breakdown:

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Central-Eastern Europe and Baltic States as a region: 2000 = 4.1 percent GDP growth; 2001 = 3.7 percent GDP growth.

Czech Republic: 2000 = 3.1 percent; 2001 = 3.5 percent GDP growth.

Estonia: 2000 = 6.4 percent; 2001 = 4.5 percent GDP growth

Hungary: 2000 = 5.2 percent; 2001 = 4.5 percent GDP growth.

Latvia: 2000 = 6.6 percent; 2001 = 4.0 percent GDP growth.

Lithuania 2000 = 2.9 percent; 2001 = 3.4 percent GDP growth.

Poland: 2000 = 4.1 percent; 2001 = 3.5 percent GDP growth.

Slovak Republic: 2000 = 2.2 percent; 2001 = 3.0 percent GDP growth.

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Southeastern Europe as a region: 2000 = 4.4 percent; 2001 = 4.0 percent GDP growth.

Albania: 2000 = 0.0 percent; 2001 = 6.0 percent GDP growth.

Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2000 = 10 percent; 20001 = 10.0 percent GDP growth.

Bulgaria: 2000 = 5.0 percent; 2001 = 4.5 percent GDP growth.

Croatia: 2000 = 3.6 percent; 2001 = 3.0 percent GDP growth.

Yugoslavia: 2000 = 10.7 percent; 2001 = 8.0 percent GDP growth.

Macedonia: 2000 = 5.1 percent; 2001 = 2.0 percent GDP growth.

Romania: 2000 = 1.6 percent; 2001 = 2.5 percent GDP growth. Eastern Growth

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Commonwealth of Independent States as a region: 2000 = 7.3 percent; 2001 = 3.6 percent GDP growth.

Armenia: 2000 = 6.0 percent; 2001 = 5.0 percent GDP growth.

Azerbaijan: 2000 = 10.5 percent; 2001 = 8.5 percent GDP growth.

Belarus: 2000 = 5.8 percent; 2001 = 2.0 percent GDP growth.

Georgia: 2000 = 2.0 percent; 2001 = 4.5 percent GDP growth.

Kazakhstan: 2000 = 9.6 percent; 2001 = 6.0 percent GDP growth.

Kyrgyzstan: 2000 = 5.1 percent; 2001 = 4.0 percent GDP growth.

Moldova: 2000 = 0.0 percent; 2001 = 2.5 percent GDP growth.

Russia: 2000 = 7.7 percent; 2001 = 3.4 percent GDP growth.

Tajikistan: 2000 = 8.3 percent; 2001 = 4.5 percent GDP growth.

Turkmenistan:2000 = 17.6 percent; 2001 = 6.0 percent GDP growth.

Ukraine: 2000 = 6.0 percent; 2001 = 3.5 percent GDP growth.

Uzbekistan: 2000 = 1.5 percent; 2001 = 1.0 percent GDP growth.

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