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Steve LeVine at "The Oil And The Glory" has a good analysis of the gas dispute (again) between Ukraine and Russia.

The dispute has more bite than previous rows because of the economic times. Ukraine is in an economic fix, as is Gazprom.

Regarding the latter, Gazprom's troubles go far. It doesn't produce much of the gas it ships to Europe, but markets gas it buys mostly from the Central Asian state of Turkmenistan. In order to obtain long-term rights to that gas, and not have it siphoned off by a covetous West, Gazprom has agreed to pay the Turkmen about $340 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Given market prices, that means that Gazprom might be forced to sell to Europe this year at a loss, unless it unilaterally cuts the price it pays to the Turkmen, who in that case could respond by withholding supplies.

"Gazprom is in a tough spot," says Kenneth Medlock, a natural gas expert at Rice University's James A Baker Institute for Public Policy, who helped me with the calculations for this article. If Gazprom loses the Turkmen supplies, Medlock said, "they are going to have trouble meeting their contractual commitments" to Europe.

Read the full post here.

-- Luke Allnutt

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