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Parsing Events In Iran


Iranian riot policemen stand guard outside Noavar private University in Tehran during protests by supporters of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Musavi, Tehran on June 14.

Iranian riot policemen stand guard outside Noavar private University in Tehran during protests by supporters of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Musavi, Tehran on June 14.

A couple of insightful U.S.-based links regarding the debate over the Iranian election results so far.

One is from Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com. It's helpful to recall that Silver's a self-confessed stat geek, so his "Statistical Report Purporting to Show Rigged Iranian Election Is Flawed" should be read in that context.

His conclusion is:

My point, I suppose, is this. Out of all the things you'd need to do to rig an election, coming up with a set of results that managed to avoid easy statistical detection would probably be one of the easier ones. So I'm skeptical that statistical analysis alone is going to turn up evidence of fraud. But I'll be keeping an eye out for other approaches, particularly from those who have a deeper understanding of the Iranian state than I do.

And the National Iranian-American Council is translating Farsi tweets about the election situation into English to help foreigners follow the chatter.

-- Andy Heil
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