Predicting a troubled future for Afghanistan appears to be the new trend in some of the Western writing about the country. Think tanks, newspaper op-eds, and blogs in Europe and North America are warning about a range of scenarios, from a division of the country to a Taliban takeover, a civil war, and increased ethnic strife among the country's various groups.

The most discussed among these is a report called "Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition" by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG). It warns that Kabul is heading towards a potentially devastating crisis is 2014 when most NATO forces would leave the country:


A recent editorial in "The New York Times" aptly titled "Time to Pack Up" advocated a precipitous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. It says that prolonging the Afghan war will "only do more harm." It also paints a very bleak picture of Afghanistan after the departure of the Western troops:


The most worrying conclusions, perhaps, are drawn by Sarah Chayes, a journalist and former special assistant to senior U.S. military leaders. In an op-ed in the "Los Angeles Times" she reads deeply into the dismissal of Afghan security ministers in August. She essentially sees Afghanistan's future in the rearview mirror:


Afghans, however, strongly reject such predictions. The Afghan government and sections of the Afghan press condemned the ICG report. They called it part of a "psychological war" and even linked it to a Western effort to pressure the Afghan government into making concessions in future security pacts.

A more sobering view is presented by informed Afghans. Writing for "Foreign Policy,"   Afghan researcher Haseeb Humayoon warns against seeing his country's future in stark terms:


Independent international observers tend to agree. Francesc Vendrell, a former EU and UN representative in Afghanistan, is widely respected among Afghans for understanding the complexities of their country. In a recent interview, he told me that no one can destroy some of the things built during the past 12 years, including a better health-care and education system and phenomenal growth in the urban population. "Afghans are not going to revert into the kind of system that the Taliban imposed between 1996 and 2001," he said.

Vendrell, however, said that credible elections in 2014 are a must for a peaceful future for the country. "If those elections lack credibility, or if for whatever reason they couldn't take place, that definitely could lead to a major conflict," he said. "It will be a loss of legitimacy for the government and it will also be inevitably a bonus for the Taliban."

-- Abubakar Siddique

So where do all the security measures and the claims of victory against the Taliban in Swat stand following the attack on Malala Yousafzai? Is the attack, triumphantly claimed by the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a slap in the face for the civilian and military leadership? And how might religious apologists tailor their statements vis-a-vis Taliban attacks on innocent civilians?

The answers are clear. Calm has been returned to Swat, but that's a far cry from peace. The country's powerful military establishment still appears to be pinning its hopes on so-called strategic assets, and it seems confused about the good and the bad among the Taliban. And religious apologists are campaigning for general elections and hence less likely to offend the Taliban.

So innocent Pakistani civilians -- particularly those who want Pakistan a modern, developing and peaceful country -- are the victims. Fourteen-year-old Malala is one of them.

While the Taliban boldly claimed responsibility for the attack on Malala and warned of another if she survives, religious apologists either stayed silent or issued face-saving statements. After much foot-dragging, bland generalizations like "we condemn terrorism" and "whoever is responsible for the attack must be punished" were issued by leaders and officials of political and religious parties like Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI), Jamat-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), and various factions of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML).

Hardly two days before the attack on Malala, cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan led a rally of his party workers and activists toward Waziristan to drum up sentiment against drone strikes targeting Al-Qaeda and Taliban targets and demanded an end to military operations. There, at the periphery of Waziristan in the district of Tank, Khan called for talks with the Taliban.

"But how can we hold talks with people who are out to kill even our children and boldly claim responsibility for such attacks?" Bashir Ahmad Bilour, a minister in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, demanded to know hours after Malala was shot.

Bashir Bilour's question casts a pall over the Pakistani government's past negotiations and peace deals with Taliban in Swat, Waziristan, and Khyber. All of those deals fell apart within few months and, in the eyes of their most strident critics, further emboldened and strengthened the militants, leading to more bloodshed in those areas.

Accounts from locals in Swat suggest that the military has a vast network of informers across the valley and that even once-powerful men -- khans or landlords -- can't so much as cough without the security forces' knowledge. How Taliban militants enter Swat and carry out occasional attacks like the one on Malala raises major questions for the people of Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the rest of Pakistan.

While prayers are being directed and praise poured on Malala and her father, Ziauddin, both of whom were on the Taliban hit-list as a result of their battle to ensure girls' education, young Malala has revived the history of Malalai of Mewand, popularly known as Malalai Anna, who rallied Pashtuns against the British during the second Anglo-Afghan war in 1880 at Maiwand, in Afghanistan.

While the Malalai of Maiwand played a heroic role in winning the battle by tending the injured Pashtuns and supplying water and weapons, the Malala of Swat fought with her pen and tongue to encourage her countrymen to send their children to school despite threats from the Taliban. Born in 1998, Malala was only 11 years old when she started her jihad (holy war) against ignorance and oppression.

The power of her unarmed jihad instilled so much fear among the so-called armed jihadists that they tried to kill her, an act both forbidden in Islam and considered a shameful and dishonorable act in Pashtun culture and tradition. Malala's attackers perhaps did not know that the attempt to silence her would produce such a serious repercussion.

Malala's rallying cry has proven stronger and more lasting than the gunshots from her would-be assassin and is resounding in every corner of Pakistan, inspiring her countrymen to stand up and emancipate themselves from the thugs who are out to steal the future of coming generations and snatch their individual and collective freedoms. Yesterday's Malala of Swat has become the Malala of Pakistan and the Malala of the wider civilized world.

-- Daud Khattak

It is not news anymore that Malala Yousafzai, a 14-year-old children's rights activist and education advocate, was on her way back from school in Swat when gunmen opened fire on her and two other girls in her school van.

The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) took responsibility for the attack, accusing her of "secular" thoughts, "propaganda against the group," and "considering U.S. President [Barack] Obama as her ideal."

For her courage and determination in fighting for girls' right to education, Malala Yousafzai is being compared by many to the Afghan heroine Malalai of Maiwand, who helped lead Ayub Khan's army to victory against the British troops in the second Anglo-Afghan war in 1880. The difference is that then the enemy was foreign troops, while this time it was Malala's own countrymen, who tried to justify attacking Malala for being "pro-Western," popularizing Western culture, and speaking against the Taliban.

A comic drawn by Bill Mauldin depicts Mahatma Gandhi addressing Martin Luther King, Jr. and saying, "The odd thing about assassins, Dr. King, is that they think they've killed you." Similarly, the insurgents think they can kill a cause by killing a person. But in fact, be it Malala Yousafzai of Swat or Malalai Kakar -- the most high-profile policewoman in Afghanistan, who was assassinated in Kandahar in 2008 -- their legacy will never die.

The assault on Yousafzai has deeply saddened people on both sides of the Durand Line and across the globe. As soon as the news of the attack spread, Afghans in a massive numbers, showing solidarity with Yousafzai, changed their Facebook and Twitter profile pictures to that of Yousafzai. Since Afghans have a rich culture of literature, as seen on many such occasions, writers and poets from both sides of the border have been writing in condemnation of the attack on Yousafzai. Famous Pashtun poets paid tribute to Yousafzai through their touching poetry.

Most of the poems applaud Malala's courage, naming her the second Malalai and condemning the Taliban as barbarians. One of the examples of such poetry is by renowned Afghan poet Abdul Ghafoor Lewal, "Flag and Lamp":

Bounties abound in Pakistan these days. And the bounty setters -- mostly prospective candidates for the upcoming general elections -- are trying to cash in on anti-Western populism in the wake of the objectionable film "Innocence of Muslims."

But that's not their sole objective. There's something more important: winning the support -- or at least sympathy -- of the Taliban militants who might well regard political leaders and their election events as soft targets once the campaigning is under way.

Ghulam Ahmad Bilour, minister for railways in the central Pakistani cabinet and a stalwart of the nationalist and secular Awami National Party (ANP), led the way by offering a $100,000 bounty for killing the reported producer of the "Innocence of Muslims." Even Al-Qaeda and Taliban can claim the lucrative sum.

Ironically, Bilour's ANP stands out in Pakistan for its nonviolence and secularist ideology. Moreover, the party defiantly brandishes the number of ANP workers and leaders who've been targeted or killed by Taliban militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The figure also includes attacks on the party's central and provincial presidents, Asfandyar Wali Khan and Afrasiab Khattak, both of whom narrowly escaped with their lives, and the killing of two provincial legislators, Shamsher Ali Khan in Swat and Alamzeb Khan in Peshawar.

But Bifour has benefited in a way that he, and perhaps his secular nonviolent party, might have been calculating: The Taliban has removed his name from its hit list and potentially paved the way for further rapprochement with his secular party ahead of the general elections slated for March 2013.

Maybe more importantly, Bilour proudly took the stage on September 28 at the historical Mahabat Khan Mosque in Peshawar, the minister's home constituency, to the chagrin of rivals from the pro-Taliban Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam. The appearance was bound to be met with praise irrespective of the performance of his ministry over the past few years.

With the general elections just a few months away and anti-Western sentiment running high, who knows better than the religious parties of Pakistan to strike while the iron is hot? Thus Ikramullah Shahid of the JUI-S tried to outdo Bilour by announcing a $200,000 bounty on the head of "Innocence of Muslims" producer.

Bilour might have boosted his popularity rating with the bounty, but it must have come as no surprise that someone tweeted him as "Ayatullah Bilour al-Cinimayee" -- "Ayatullah" in a reference to the fatwa by Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini 23 years ago against "The Satanic Verses" author Salman Rushdie, and "al-Cinimayee" in a reference to the Bilour family's cinema business, deemed haram (forbidden) by some strict Islamists. Members of Bilour's own party also expressed alarm at his bounty announcement. One among them, female senator Bushra Gohar, termed it a "criminal" act.

But why single out Bilour? Another sitting minister of the central Pakistani cabinet, Sheikh Waqas Akram, declared during a television talk show that he'd kill the producer if he could. The central Pakistani government declared September 21 a public holiday in reaction to the outrage over the amateurish film. One year ago, Shahbaz Sharif, the chief minister of Pakistan's largest province, Punjab, appealed during a public meeting to Taliban not to carry out attacks inside his province as his government was not touching them. The minister for law in Sharif's cabinet, Rana Sanaullah, was accused of supporting members of the banned Sipah-e Sahaba to browbeat opponents within his constituency.

Pakistani officials describe the country as a victim of Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorism and say terrorists pose a serious threat to the country. But ruling and opposition parties alike appear willing to close their eyes to that threat as they pursue short-term political gain.

Bounties might briefly prop up parties or individuals, but they won't inspire confidence when the future of 180 million Pakistanis is at stake.

-- Daud Khattak

As the dust was settling last weekend after violent demonstrations in Pakistan against an anti-Islam film, students and members of civil society could be seen tidying streets and painting damaged walls in Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi.

The cleaning of streets and the whitewashing of burnt buildings by scores of Pakistanis, mostly young men, showed an altogether different image of Pakistan than that portrayed by local and international television channels on September 21.

It's a contrast that highlights the existence of two Pakistans. One of these Pakistans was overtaken by a religious frenzy after Friday Prayers on September 21, while the other is a moderate and tolerant country where young men pick up rubble, broken glass and used teargas shells from streets that witnessed daylong running battles between police and protesters expressing their anger over the controversial film.

At least 23 people were reported dead and dozens more injured in several Pakistani cities as angry protesters ransacked property and clashed with police.

The amateur film "Innocence of Muslims" drew widespread condemnation from across the globe -- including the United States, where it was produced -- but the international censure did little to calm the Muslim world.

This was especially true of Pakistan, where the government announced a public holiday to express love for the Prophet Muhammad in a move to appease the religious right.

Twitter Mobilization

Just a day after the violent protests, it took Faran Rafi a single tweet to collect thousands of young men for "Project Cleanup for Peace." Rafi, a student at the Lahore University of Management Science, came up with the idea in order to let the world know about the "other Pakistan."

"I thought that this was the right time for the educated youth to stand up and clean the streets littered with pieces of stones and glass and let the world know that all Pakistanis are not violent," Rafi told Radio Mashaal's Maliha Amirzada. "A five-to-six hour campaign on social media helped gather 5,000 people, including children, men, and women up to 60 years of age."

The violent protests on September 21 were viewed with awe and fear by the international community, but many Pakistanis were equally taken aback by the inability of the state authorities to control a few hundred hooligans and ensure the safety of public and private property.

However, the fact that Project Cleanup for Peace mobilized thousands of people in no time shows that there is hope for the "other Pakistan" and gives grounds for optimism amidst all the gloom and despair that prevailed in the wake of the violence.

While "ratings conscious" Pakistani television channels struggled to get more and more live coverage of the protesters as they went berserk, all the TV commentators, newspaper columnists, and editorials condemned the September 21 protests and deemed it an inappropriate reaction that benefited no one except for the film's producer.

The response from Pakistan's civil society, intelligentsia, and media to the violent protests is not the only indication that voices are now being raised against extremist elements in the country.

Days before the unrest, widespread concern had also been voiced over the arrest of a 13-year-old Christian girl on charges of blasphemy.

Such was the force of the public outcry in support of Rimsha Masih that police arrested the prayer leader who had accused the minor of blasphemy and a court has charged him with fabricating the case.

Glass Half Full?

It seems unlikely that this sort of outcome could have been possible in a sensitive case like this in Pakistan only a year ago, especially as a provincial governor and federal minister sacrificed their lives for speaking out against the country's blasphemy laws in 2011.

These latest developments give us cause to wonder whether the proverbial glass is "half full" or "half empty" with respect to the direction Pakistan is headed.

While the glass may appear half empty for a majority of analysts looking at a nuclear-armed Pakistan from thousands of miles away, it is certainly half full for youths such as Faran Rafi and Miran Rahmat Khan.

Islamabad student Khan was also among hundreds of youths who helped clean the streets on a call from Rafi.

Project Cleanup for Peace gives optimism for the future of Pakistan and the talent its youth possesses.

"Of course, we condemn the film insulting the Prophet, but we need to show patience and calm," he says. "Amid all the darkness, [Pakistan's] youth is carrying a message of hope. With projects like this, we want to show the world that those conveying the extremist image of the country to the world comprise only a fraction of the population."

Khan's assertion is borne out by the fact that religious parties and like-minded extremist elements have never actually won a majority in Pakistan's parliament.

The Pakistan of Rafi and Khan offers an alternative to the vision of the country that is being presented by religious zealots and extremist-jihadists.

Last weekend's cleanup indicates that it does not take much apart from some focused and inspired leadership to mobilize this moderate, civic-minded Pakistan.

Can this sort of leadership come to the fore in Pakistan?

Only the future can answer that question.

-- Daud Khattak

Rimsha Masih, the 14-year-old Christian girl accused of blasphemy and currently in police custody in Pakistan, has stirred public sentiment on both sides of the divide -- right and left -- in the highly polarized Pakistani society.

At the same time, the case has focused unprecedented international concern on Pakistan's blasphemy law being used by religious fanatics among the Muslim majority to frighten and intimidate their non-Muslim compatriots (3 percent).

The latest reaction is a statement from the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) and the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan demanding the immediate release of the girl.

ALSO SEE: Court Grants Bail In Masih Case

Keeping in mind the reaction on the local and international levels, the case is unique mainly because the religious groups best-known for their hard-line views when it comes to "blasphemy" either stayed silent or called for investigations into the case to ensure that justice was done.

One among such voices is the chief of Pakistan's Ulema Council, Tahir Mahood Ashrafi, who demanded bail for the Christian girl and stressed the need for a thorough investigation into the case.

Going a step further, the chief of the Ulema Council -- which is known for its support for the blasphemy law -- appeared in a live television debate and pressed the need for action against the prayer leader of a mosque in the neighborhood where Masih allegedly burned the pages from the Koran.

The prayer leader, Khalid Jadoon Chishti, is currently in police custody for "fabricating" the blasphemy case against Masih by "deliberately stuffing pages of the Holy Koran in the bag" containing burned pages from a book used to familiarize children with Arabic words before they study the Koran.

Since August 16, the day the young girl was arrested, the case has proven to be a watershed for a number of reasons. Never in its history has Pakistan seen such a vociferous response on an issue as sensitive as the burning of the Koran, and by a Christian besides.

Let's look at a few examples from the recent past.

When a police guard gunned down Salmaan Taseer, the governor of Punjab, Pakistan's largest province, in January 2011 and his bodyguard-turned-killer, Mumtaz Qadri, confessed before a television camera, people from some religious groups and other walks of life showered the killer with rose petals.

"How could they do so?" asked Taseer's eldest son in an article for the British newspaper "The Daily Telegraph." Taseer was maligned and ultimately killed because he demanded clemency for another Christian woman, Aasia Bibi, who was condemned to death by a local court for her alleged blasphemy. Bibi's trouble began following a dispute with a fellow Muslim woman over water sharing in June 2009.

Three months after Taseer was killed, Shahbaz Bhatti, the federal minorities minister, was shot dead by armed men in the country's capital, Islamabad. The motive was the same: silencing a voice against the blasphemy law.

Again, with the exception of a few silent protests by human rights activists, no political party or group -- not even the ruling Pakistan People's Party, to which both Taseer and Bhatti belonged -- dared to speak a word in support of the two political stalwarts who laid their lives on the line to secure the rights of minorities promised by Pakistan's founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, in his first address to his newly independent country's constituent assembly on August 11, 1947.

Not only have minorities accused of blasphemy since 1986 (the year when the blasphemy law was introduced by military ruler General Zia ul-Haq) not been given a proper opportunity to defend themselves in a court of law; the successive governments shied away from investigating the charges that many believe are usually motivated by family and land disputes, personal rivalries, disputes over money, or hatred for a minority member or the whole sect.

However, the Rimsha Masih case is different: Not only because the cleric who accused the young girl of blasphemy was arrested and charged under the same law, but clerics as well as common Pakistanis demanded a full probe into the case to ensure justice for both parties.

Unlike in the past, not a single demonstration has so far been held in any Pakistani city or town to condemn the girl. The Pakistani media and intelligentsia have heartily endorsed the government's decision to arrest the cleric and to ensure transparent investigations.

And more encouraging is the fact that, at least so far, no one -- not even the factions known for their religious fanaticism -- has made any threats as opinion leaders on live TV talk shows and op-ed articles in leading newspapers ask for amendments to the blasphemy law.

Not too long ago, calling for amendment of the blasphemy law was seen as a case of blasphemy in itself. It seems that sanity speaks -- and change is coming in Pakistan -- but very, very slowly.

-- Daud Khattak

Shahid Afridi, one of Pakistani cricket lovers' favorite players, is set to join the struggle to persuade his fellow tribesmen to administer polio drops to their children.

Hailing from the Khyber tribal district and currently living in the mega-city of Karachi, Afridi's hallmark in cricket is his aggressive style, which is the key reason for his popularity among fans of the game.

The decision to bring in Afridi to support the antipolio campaign in the tribal areas came weeks after the Taliban banned polio-vaccination teams in parts of Waziristan.

The Taliban in North and South Waziristan, the two tribal districts known for their Taliban and Al-Qaeda activity, warned people against administering polio drops to their children.

The militant leaders Maulvi Nazir (South Waziristan) and Hafiz Gul Bahadar (North Waziristan), on separate occasions, said polio teams would be permitted in the areas only when the United States put an end to drone strikes.

Most tribesmen believe the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are the most lethal weapons to hit the Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership in their safe havens in the unruly tribal region.

Health officials in Peshawar say the Taliban ban would deprive 241,000 children -- 161,000 in North Waziristan and 80,000 in South Waziristan -- of polio immunization during the current drive, set to kick off on July 17.

One case of polio has been registered both in North and South Waziristan this year, and health officials believe the virus can spread rapidly for a number of reasons. Of the 22 polio cases registered in Pakistan during the current year, 11 were reported from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Interestingly enough, nine out of the 11 cases from FATA were recorded in Khyber Agency, the tribal district which is the birthplace of cricketer Afridi.

Fighting Disease -- And Ignorance

Afridi's energetic style, charisma, and his Pashto language with the typical Afridi accent would be a boost for parents to register their children for polio immunization, not only in the tribal region but in the rest of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.

Officials say efforts have already got under way to prepare advertisements for the UNICEF-supported program to convey the message to the people that polio drops and vaccination do not carry any harmful chemicals and are not against religious teachings.

The polio vaccination drives in the conservative parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also suffered a heavy blow following the reportedly fake immunization campaign by Dr. Shakeel Afridi in the city of Abbottabad to locate Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

A study published in "The Lancet" medical journal has expressed concern over the increase in polio cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The study says polio cases in Pakistan are on the rise because of the vaccination refusals, while the conflict in Afghanistan has contributed to the increase in the spread of the polio virus.

A record number of polio cases (198) were registered in Pakistan last year. Aside from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nigeria are the only two other countries where the polio virus still exists.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and the adjacent tribal areas, the local authorities often use local religious scholars to persuade parents to administer polio drops/vaccines to their children. However, the weak writ of the government, particularly in the tribal areas, and the presence of militant groups often impede efforts to eradicate the virus.

Looking at his popularity, Afridi's appointment as a promoter of the polio-awareness drive is believed to be very helpful.

-- Daud Khattak