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January 27, 2006

Uzbekistan: Playing Russia Against The West

Russian President Putin (center) flanked by the leaders of the five Central Asian countries in St. Petersburg this week (epa)

On 25 January, RFE/RL Uzbek Service correspondent Alisher Sidikov spoke with Ira Straus, founder and U.S. coordinator of the Committee on Eastern Europe and Russia in NATO, about Uzbekistan and its influence on relations between Russia and the West.

RFE/RL: Is it possible for the West to cooperate with Russia considering its policy toward Uzbekistan now?


Straus: I think the possibility is still there but it is much more difficult because the game has been played out ever since the massacre [of demonstrators by Uzbek troops in Andijon in May] -- and even before that -- on the basis that Russia will support the dictatorship and the United States will oppose it. Russia has made great gains by this game. It is still possible, but that would be the precondition -- that some bargains have to be made and Russia has to see that it gets something.


RFE/RL: You say that the game over Uzbekistan is over. Who succeeded in this game?


Straus: It's the success of [Uzbek President Islam] Karimov playing us both off one another. He can claim a success.


RFE/RL: Do you think that Russia's image or its relationship with the West, the EU, will be somehow affected by supporting dictators in Central Asia?


Straus: Yes, it is affected. This causes the relationship to deteriorate somewhat, but not catastrophically. The real, deeper disillusionment with Russia in the West is because of Russian domestic policy and because of Ukraine, which is very close to the West. In Central Asia, the West is cautious because we don't have an absolutely clear idea of what to do or of how things could be done easily.


RFE/RL: Do you think that Russian President Vladimir Putin still has some concerns in Uzbekistan. For example, the Uzbek leader is widely viewed as an unreliable ally?


Straus: [Putin] is very afraid that any changes in regimes will destabilize things, first, and, second, that any changes in regimes will lead to a further decline in Russian influence. So, he's afraid of change. But, I agree with you that it would be in Russia's interests actually to have a different regime and what happened in Kyrgyzstan shows that Russia can actually gain rather than lose from change.


RFE/RL: What’s your prediction on the future of Russian policy toward Uzbekistan?


Straus: If I am to predict, it is that Russia will continue to support him and the situation will remain as it is -- very unstable -- for some time. By coming closer, [Russia] makes itself suffer more when [Karimov] falls. Because of that, it will stick even closer to him to try to prevent him from falling. So it is a vicious circle in that also.


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