PRAGUE, 22 February 2006 (RFE/RL) -- Although the Iranian delegation left the negotiation table rather abruptly, Russia maintains the talks ended "as scheduled."
Addressing reporters after the meeting, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a guarded assessment: "We will, of course, inform you about the outcome. But I would refrain from using such terms as 'collapse,' 'absence of success,' or 'failure' until the talks are actually over."
The reaction of Ali Hosseinitash, the head of the Iranian delegation, contrastedwith that of Lavrov: "We discussed Russia's [enrichment] offer. As we said before, we view this proposal positively. But we agreed that the plan should be widened in the framework of a broader formula to which we will agree [at a later date]."
Critics will likely take Hosseinitash's comments as further evidence that Iran is playing for time in a bid to delay the referral of its nuclear dossier to the United Nations' Security Council.
International Pressure
The United States and the European Union are pressing Tehran to stop all suspicious nuclear activities and are looking ahead toward 6 March, when the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency is due to report on Iran to the Security Council. Russia is also concerned about Iran's suspected nuclear plans, but is trying to avoid referral before the Security Council.
Aleksei Arbatov heads the International Security Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences' World Economy and International Relations Institute (IMEMO). He tells our correspondent that, as Hosseinitash indicated, Tehran has plenty of reasons to be satisfied with the Moscow talks.
"To the Iranians, any talks are positive because they give them an opportunity for diplomatic maneuver. They see these negotiations on the possible creation of a plant specialized in uranium enrichment outside Iran as a way to ease the pressure exerted by the United States, Western Europe, and even Russia," Arbatov said. "As a matter of fact, Iran is not looking forward to seeing anything [concrete] come out of these talks. What Iran wants is to have its own nuclear fuel cycle. Why? That's another question."
To alleviate international concerns that Tehran may be seeking to develop nuclear weapons, Russia has offered to enrich Iran's uranium on its soil. The enriched uranium would then be shipped to Iran and the spent fuel sent back to Russia for reprocessing.
Iranian negotiators have made contradictory signals about the Russian offer, saying alternatively they were interested and not interested. More recently, they said they were seeking additional guarantees.
Tajik-born Rajab Safarov heads the Moscow-based Center for Studies on Modern Iran. He tells RFE/RL's Tajik Service that Tehran insists on three things: "First, [Iran would like] to enrich part of its uranium on its soil. Second, it would like its specialists to participate in the enrichment process in Russia. Thirdly, it would like to give this joint venture an international character with the inclusion of countries other than Russia. That would give it more reliable guarantees that it will not depend on the will and mood of one single party because [should Russia decide] to stop shipping [nuclear] fuel to Iran, it would have to secure the consent of several countries."
Opening Up The Proposal
Among countries Iran would like to see take part in the future joint venture is China.
Economic ties between Tehran and Beijing have been rapidly developing, especially in the energy field. China currently imports nearly one-fifth of its oil from Iran and both countries are expected to sign a major oil-development project next month.
Officially at least, Moscow is not objecting to Beijing's participation in the project. Russian analysts, however, believe it will never agree to letting Iranian experts access to highly sensitive nuclear technologies. Because of that, they say Tehran is unlikely to accept Moscow's offer as it stands.
But Arbatov of IMEMO believes Russia has several options to make its enrichment proposal attractive to Iran. "Possible topics for discussion are multiple, starting with the extension of the Bushehr [nuclear plant] project. I suspect Russia is trying to make Iran understand that, should it give up plans to have a full nuclear fuel cycle, it could supply it with not just one reactor -- which is nearing completion -- but five, 10, or even 15," Arbatov said.