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Commentary

Don't Envy The Next High Representative In Bosnia

Miroslav Lajcak, like the other high representatives before him, will leave the job without being able to deliver improvements in the lives of the country's people.

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By Nenad Pejic

February 26, 2009

The soon-to-be-appointed international high representative to Bosnia-Herzegovina is not much more likely to be successful than his worthy predecessors. The new envoy will certainly take office on a wave of positive rhetoric and verbal commitments, but that wave will soon crash against the hard realities on the ground in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

In order to deliver results in Bosnia, the high representative needs at least three things: the unwavering commitment of the international community, the goodwill of local political leaders in the country and the region; and the support of the Bosnian population for change. He or she will find none of these.

Consider the touching term "international community." That sounds almost like a happy little family. In reality, what we refer to as the international community is really a hodge-podge of differing -- and sometimes directly conflicting -- interests and values. Constantly shifting interests and values, at that. These conflicting interests time and again result in compromises that do nothing more than maintain an uneasy status quo in Bosnia. The EU has allocated 8 billion euros ($10 billion) in support for the western Balkans for the period 2007-10. And most of that just ends up covering EU expenses or lining private pockets.

Theoretically, the high representative has almost unlimited power in Bosnia. But one after another they have all left, frustrated by their inability to move the country forward. Carl Bildt (1995-97), Carlos Westendorp (1997-99), Wolfgang Petritsch (1999-2002), Paddy Ashdown (2002-06), Christian Schwarz-Schilling (2006-07), and Miroslav Lajcak (2007-09) -- all of them could have used the power of their position much more actively, but because of the international community's lack of clear goals, they were stymied.

Local leaders in Bosnia were quick to identify and exploit this weakness. While the high representative has failed time and again to deliver on promises, they have been coming through with pledges designed to keep the country divided along ethnic lines -- and to keep themselves in power. These efforts have been stepped up in recent weeks since High Representative Lajcak announced he would be resigning. Reasoning correctly that he wouldn't begin laying down the law in his last weeks in Bosnia, local leaders used the power vacuum to put forward a proposal to carve the country up into four separate, ethnically based enclaves. That is, they are exactly where they were when the war ended in 1995: drawing maps and reinforcing divisions instead of building a unified country.

They have no time for reducing Bosnia's 40 percent unemployment rate or raising the country's average salary, which remains about $600 a month. They haven't even been bothered to comply with one of the basic demands of the 1995 Dayton peace accord -- that they sit down together and hammer out a constitution for the country. In the last few days, representatives of the Republika Srpska, Bosnia's ethnic-Serbian entity, threatened to leave all national institutions, while representatives of all sides accused one another of arming themselves for a possible future conflict. A "threat assessment report" by the CIA says starkly that ethnic tensions in Bosnia are "perhaps at the highest level in years" and that Bosnia is the biggest threat to stability in Europe.

Forcing Hard Decisions

And what about average Bosnians? A Gallup poll conducted last year found that less than half of Bosnians are enthusiastic about eventually joining the European Union. "No politician will dare to speak against the EU," Lajcak said in October. "But the people should become aware that nationalist politicians are an obstacle to EU membership...and send them packing. But such a change of mind has not yet been reflected in elections."

RFE/RL reported recently that remittances from abroad in Bosnia are 70 percent higher than direct foreign investment. A friend of mine who regularly sends money to her parents in Bosnia told me that real change will come to the country only "when we stop sending money to our relatives and friends." Only then, she argues, will Bosnians be forced to work together and accept change in order to survive. Now, it is as if Bosnians in the West are paying them to maintain their endless animosities, subsidizing the collapse of their homeland.

The result of this situation is an uneasy and unsustainable status quo, a situation where no one has to take responsibility and no hard choices have to be made. And this situation was perhaps an inevitable result of the Dayton process. How could the same ideologies that tore the country apart and threw it into war now be expected to bring it together and lead it to peace? Those who were responsible for the collapse of the country can hardly be made responsible for rebuilding it.

The new high representative's problems will be further complicated by the global economic crisis and recession in Bosnia. EU member states are so preoccupied with their own problems that they will have little time or energy for Bosnia. Rather than redoubling their commitment to Bosnian unity, they will likely take a second look at the resources they have already pledged. Likewise, the new administration in the United States can be expected to have little time to spare for far-off Bosnia. The EU will most likely be able to do nothing more than stave off collapse, rather than promoting progress.

Since December 1995, the international community has sent six of its most talented and prominent diplomats to Bosnia. The new high representative will be the seventh. Most likely, he or she will be in office to mark the 15th anniversary of the creation of the post of high representative with the task of supervising postwar normalization and the transition to stable democracy. But after 15 years of trying, Bosnia is neither stable nor democratic. Rather than serving as midwife to a new democracy, the EU high representative is just a nanny to a sickly patient who refuses to take his medicine.

Nenad Pejic is associate director of broadcasting for RFE/RL. The views expressed in this commentary are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL

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Comments

by: Brazilian Man from: São Paulo - Brazil

February 26, 2009 14:20

The problem is the Dayton Accord. He freezed the conflict, maintaining in power the same people who created the ethnic-religious hatred that fomented the war, instead of solving it.

It was not a peace accord, but an armistice created to appease the then all-powerful Slobodan Milosevic.

“How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas masks here because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing.” — Neville Chamberlain about Czechoslovakia.

by: Abdulmajid

February 27, 2009 23:51

Of course the problem lies in the Dayton armistice. Kenneth Galbraith not long ago said that it had been a colossal blunder not to let the Bosniaks inflict military defeat on the Serbs, as the Croats did in their country, and he is right. Unfortunately this came about because certain European powers said "A Muslim community in its own sovereign country on European soil is just not on, we must let the Serbs and Croats keep them in check." But they don't want to keep them in check, they want to erase them off the map. Because 1.) they only believe that might makes right, and Dayton only confirmed to them that they could actually get away with land grab and genocide. 2.)They know perfectly well that in a few years they will be outnumbered in Bosnia-Herzegovina (as in Kosova; they said the Kosovars breed like rabbits). And they are very afraid of the Muslims, for they know that they will be held accountable for their deeds. Also, because of their Orthodox mentality they only have contempt and hate for Muslims, an arrogant, prepotent and hateful attitude(there was this story about an Orthodox village priest who said "I can't read or write, but at least nobody in my village became a Muslim."), total disregard and lack of empathy for the suffering of others, utter lack of respect for anybody who doesn't happen to share their views (in the postings of all the little Karadzics out there you can read all this between the lines, and the "facts" they come up with have long ago and often been refuted or exposed as lies, yet they keep repeating it because they believe all others to be stupid.) There is no way honest, Anti-fascist people in Bosnia can overcome these fears. To think that the partition of the cpountry could be overcome over time if all refugees return to their pre-war homes is just a pipe dream, for as long as the very people who expelled and murdered them in the first place remain in power, a return to the pre-war conditions will just not happen. The present situation like an unbalance in kinetic energy or electric charges or a pressure gradient will have to straighten itself out. Because human nature, as nature in general, does not allow for an unbalance.
Unfortunately I see for the Bosnian Muslims no other alternative than to stay alert, be watchful and prepared. Unfortunately, what with the leadership they have, and that Muslims are looked down upon and feared and resented among the Western peoples, in the end, it will be every man (and woman and child) for himself.
They must know that from their enemy they can only expect: humiliation, destruction, exile, ghettoization, death. And from the "concerned" West: to be stabbed in the back. If they don't look this bitter,bleak reality in the eye and are ready to act appropriately, then they will be turned into the Palestinians of Europe, and Europe will have its own version of the Palestinian conflict on its door.
The responsible leaders in Serbia, (in Croatia for the moment it seems not) but also among the European powers seem to be blind to the fact that this is in nobody's interest. Not in Europe's, not in the Bosnians' and certainly not in Serbia's and Croatia's , because then they would have to spend most of their budgets solely to put down the Bosniaks, exactly like the Israelis are now doing with the Palestinians.
And I have no illusions as to how this will be solved. The best solution would be a unified Bosnia-Herzegovina for all her honest and industrious peoples, with equal rights for all, as corresponds to a modern, not backwards, nation. But it will not happen. Because those who have the clout and pull the strings only pursue their own agendas, not the best interests of their people, let alone other peoples. (especially in the former communist countries, they think "I have been publicly elected and this is enough legitimacy for me to line my pockets.")

by: The end is near!

March 02, 2009 17:38

Former Yugoslavia was the last "multi-ethnic" country in the Balkans. Bosnia will not survive with an outdated rhetoric, that's obvious. Just read readers' comments in various Bosnian media and you'll find out how separated that country is. Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital is no longer multiethnic neither. Your article doesn't mention that the bigger and bigger number of Serbs and Croats are actually leaving Sarajevo. Unfortunately, this is what's left of the former Yugo. A bunch of "banana republics" created by the Western intelligence and arrogance.

by: Abdulmajid Bosnavi

March 03, 2009 21:07

Yes indeed, the end is near - for "RS" not for Bosnia-Herzegovina. With 70.000 Serbs between Sarajevo and the Drina, and 400.000 Bosniaks in Sarajevo alone I wonder with what they think they can stand up to them. Particularly knowing that the Serbnian army of today is no longer what the JNA of the 1990s used to be...
And while in is undoubtedly so that a large proportion of the Bosnian Serbs openly loathes BiH, the Bosniaks love their country, and when they will be the majority they will very well be able to manage it, thank you very much, and who doesn't like it is free to go, and that's in fact what a lot of Bosnian Serbs are actually doing. They are voting with their feet, leaving the "RS" for Serbia. So, by and large the "100% Serb" territory in Bih is more likely to disappear than Bosnia-Herzegovina itself. Why should the Bosniaks give up or sign away thgeir homeland, just because about 27% of its population say so (plus 12% if we consider the Bosnian Creoats as well) What would they do with the majority, the Bosniaks? Lock them into a Balkan version of the Gaza Strip, now would you? And besides that, Serbia itself is not 100% Serb either. There are Hungarians, Slovaks, Romanians, Bosniaks, Albanians and even Bulgarians and Ruthenes living in it. So what is so objectionable about a unified Bosnia-Herzegovina with majority role by the Bosniaks?It will probably be less multiethinc than it was before it pleased Slobodan Milosevic to unleash the "Doogs of war" Karadzic and Mladic who for very particular reasons of their own had the crazy and evil idea of destroying the Bosnian Muslims. Only those who followed that vile and rotten idea have a reason to be afraid of the Bosniaks. So it is through their own doings that a large part of the Bosnian Serbs and Croats have forfeited their right of living in BiH, while it is the unalienable right of every Bosniak (except for the traitors on the side of the traitor Fikret Abdic) to live anyplace in Bosnia-Herzegovina where his ancestors have lived for as much as the last 600 years! In Baljvina, northwest of Jaje, Serbs and Muslims stood together, and this is the only place in all of the "RS" where no Muslim was killed and where the mosque was not razed. I bet those Serbs are not leaving Bosnia. And I am certain that Gen. Jovan Divjak and his family have no plans to leave Sarajevo or BiH for Serb-held territory anytime soon either. And so I think do all Bosnian Serbs and Croats who stood and stand for Bosnia-Herzegovina. Who has a reason to fear the Muslims or has a bad conscience for what he did to them or what was done to the Bosnian Muslims in his name, we're not holding them back.

by: Abdulmajid Bosnavi

March 15, 2009 22:03

Bosnia-Herzegovina is not an “artificial country” (1)
Some people claim that Bosnia-Herzegovina is as artificial a country as was the former Yugoslavia. This is utterly false. There was a Kingdom of Bosnia a thousand years ago. Those same people claim that there is no such thing as a Bosnian people or nation. There were and there are enough people in BiH who feel as Bosnians. And while it may be so that some of the Bosniaks are descended from Catholics who embraced the Muslim faith about 500 years ago or from Orthodox who did the same (and it was the Ottomans who allowed Serbs to settle in Bosnia in larger numbers), the Bosnian Muslims have had 500 years, that is, more than enough time to develop a national identity. So any claims to the contrary are utterly FALSE, and who still claims them is to me as bad as Karadzic or Mladic.
Now why is BiH in its form of today a failed state: because the Dayton armistice precludes any normal function of the country.
The Bosnian Serb leadership want the "Anschluss" with Serbia, as a first step in the creation of Greater Serbia, and so that Dodik can become President of that Greater Serbia (how they think they can get back Kosova when the majority Albanians are aginst it is beyond comprehension for me): The Bosniaks know what they want, but don't seem to know how to achieve it. as for the Bosnian Croats, there are some who wish for an own entity. If that happened, if Bosnia is not reunified then the Bosniaks will be forced into a Balkan version of the Gaza Strip, and become the Palestinians of Europe. And since it seems to be that that is the intention of the Europeans, it is of course clear that they will not follow up on the reunification of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Even though this would be the only sensible solution. But if they admit it they would acknowledge that in the 1990s they did the wrong thing. And they fear that Russia would hit the ceiling! the idiots! Is having a second Palestinian conflict, and right on Europe's doorstep, a better solution?

by: Abdulmajid

March 15, 2009 22:11

Bosnia is not an "artificial country" (2)
Of course it would be better that Bosnia-Herzegovina was reunified. If the Europeans really cared about their values they would make sure that the Constitution of a unified Bosnia-Herzegovina would ensure equal rights for all - which in the end is what the Bosnians too want, and that includes most of the Bosnian Muslims. After all, the majority of them are not Wahhabis or Taliban. That's what the European leadership always conveniently forget. But I fear that instead they will continue to pursue their policies of "hostile neutrality" towards the Bosniaks. The Bosniaks stand alone. But they will prevail, because they soon will be the the majority in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Will they want to keep them from joining Europe forever? Because if they did recognize Bosnia-Herzegovina as the national state of the Bosnian Muslims and all others who live in it, the same way Croatia is the national state of the Crfoats and all others who live in it, Serbis ais the national state of Serbs and all others who live in it: because of the war, and since a lot of non-Muslims are leaving Bosnia for Serbia or Croatia or abroad because they don't see it as their true homeland. So a unified Bosnia-Herzegovina would be less multiethnic than it was before the war but it will certainly not be 100% Muslim. So what is so objectionable about a majoritary Muslim unified Bosnia-Herzegovina? Except to Islamophobes!
On the contrary, if Europe admitted a unified majority-Muslim Bosnia it would be a very positive signal to the Muslims worldwide, and it would invalidate all the justifications the Islamist terrorists always use.

by: Abdulmajid

March 15, 2009 22:29

Bosnia is not an "artificial country!" (4)
And besides that, if Europe is ready to admit Albania and Kosova, and these countries also have a majoritary Muslim (but not extremist) population, so where is the problem? And "centuries-old ethnic hate", that too is false. After all, in Albania there too are Muslims, Orthodox and Catholics and there is no hate between them as religious groups. If there is ethnic hate among Bosnians, it was initiated by the pro-Greater Serbs, and exacerbated by the criminal policies of Milosevic, Karadzic and Mladic (who had all different motives and goals but used the same ends to achieve them). It could ber overcome, even in Northern Ireland peopl eare sick and tired of it, and but for a few evil fanatics, most people seem now to stand together in their condemnation of the last attempts by the "real IRA".
So what must be done is:
1.) Mladic and Hadzic must be brought to justice.
2.)Bosnia-Herzegovina must be unified, with a new constitution that states equal rights for all its inhabitants and citizens.
3.) A new and comprehensive peace treaty between Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro must be concluded, in which all parties solemnly renounce military means as a means of politics, all claims on the other countries' territorial integrity and populations, and solemnly pledge to maintain good neighborly relations, and liberty of circulation across their borders.
4.) A Truth and Reconciliation Commisssion analogous to that of South Afrtica is to be established, but no one who was involved with the "RS" or with certain sectors of the SDA may be part of it. It has to be composed of neutral and non-nationalist individuals like Mirsad Tokaca or Savo Heleta.
Everybody who has at least average intelligence should know that this is true, and that it is the only reasonable, fair and just solution.
And if someone who posts here or who reads this dismisses it all as pipe dreams or worthless or false well then everybody knows what they are: islamophobic fascist racist morons!