Prague, 2 January 2006 (RFE/RL) -- The New Year's hangovers may have gone, but, for those involved in the gas dispute, the headaches will continue for some time.
There is still no end in sight for the quarrel about the price Ukraine pays for Russian gas. The row culminated in Russia's state-run gas monopoly Gazprom making good on earlier threats and reducing pressure in its pipeline on 1 January.
Since the cutoff, the war of words has intensified.
In a statement today, Ukraine accused Russia of blackmail, saying Moscow was trying to destabilize the economy of its neighbor.
Speaking to journalists in Kyiv yesterday, Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko accused the Russian side of breaking previous agreements. "The reduction of gas supply took place not on 1 January but on 31 December, which is a violation of previous agreements and contracts on Russian gas transit and supplies," he said. "We consider this to be a form of direct economic pressure on Ukraine."
The Russian side has accused the Ukrainians of siphoning off gas meant for European consumers.
"We have information from the ground that Ukraine has started unsanctioned siphoning of Russian gas meant for European consumers," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said yesterday. "Tomorrow we will be able to provide information about the precise volume of gas that has been stolen."
And today Gazprom produced its statistics, saying that Ukraine took around 100 million cubic meters of Russian gas bound for Europe on 1 January.
Ukraine has denied these allegations, saying it is not using a cubic meter of Russian gas. However, Kyiv has said previously that it has the right to take 15 percent of the remaining supplies in the pipelines as payment for transporting the gas to Western Europe.
The finger pointing is nothing new. The gas dispute has burned for months between the two countries.
Gazprom wants Ukraine to pay $230 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas instead of the current $50. Ukrainian leaders have said the country is prepared to pay more, but want to institute the changes gradually. The average EU charge is $240.
Hopes for a last-minute resolution were dashed when Ukraine on 31 January rejected an offer from Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone the price increases if Ukraine agreed to new terms. Ukraine has called for more talks.
Already European gas consumers are beginning to feel the pinch.
Austria, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia have all reported reduced gas deliveries from Russia. The Austrian natural-gas company OMV said today that "around a third of the volume has been cut" in supplies flowing from Russia via Ukraine.
The European Union gets about 25 percent of its gas from Russia and 80 percent of all gas exports to Western Europe go through Ukraine.
Most likely to be affected will be industry and big business, rather than ordinary consumers. Most countries will be able to draw on reserves and alternative energy sources to cover the deficit -- but only for so long. It is the potential consequences of a prolonged cutoff that is so worrying for the international community.
Germany, Italy, France, and Austria have made a joint appeal to Ukraine and Russia to ensure that gas flows to Western Europe remain steady.
Speaking yesterday to journalists in Vienna, German Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed for an end to the dispute. "We hope that a sensible arrangement can be found in this dispute [between Russia and Ukraine] and, beyond that, we hope for common sense in neighborly relations between Russia and Ukraine," she said.
A panel of EU energy experts will meet on 4 January to discuss the crisis.
The U.S. State Department has said it regrets Russia's move to cut supplies to Ukraine, noting its potential effects on gas supplies elsewhere in Europe.
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said yesterday that such an "abrupt step" creates insecurity in the energy sector in the region and "raises serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure." He said Washington has told both nations it supports a gradual move toward market pricing for energy supplies.
Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been strained since Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution ushered in Westward-leaning President Yushchenko.
Some analysts have said the cutoff is an attempt by Russia to reassert its power in the region. But others have said that Russia is just responding to market conditions and protecting its interests.
Andrei Illarionov, who resigned last week as Russian President Vladimir Putin economic adviser, told Ekho Moskvy radio on 29 December: "The head of the Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, [Konstantin] Kosachev, has essentially said that these talks will go on at least until the parliamentary elections in Ukraine [in March]. By saying this he has revealed probably one of the most important secrets of this campaign: that the goal of these talks is not to eliminate subsidies for gas consumers in Ukraine -- which under any other circumstances would be the right thing to do, but only if subsidies for Belarus and other consumers, including Russian, were eliminated at the same time -- but obviously these talks have some other goal that is not directly related to the elimination of subsidies."
If no settlement is reached, Ukraine could take the case to the Stockholm-based international arbitration court.