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Wednesday, 20 November 2002 Volume 6 Number 218

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End Note

ENLARGED EUROPE'S BORDERLANDS POSE VAST CHALLENGE

By Christopher Walker

At the precise moment the Euro-Atlantic community is opening its arms to a large group of new NATO and EU candidates, it is simultaneously turning a cold shoulder to certain soon-to-be-neighbors. The West is zeroing in on and looking to isolate the leadership of two problem countries that represent some 60 million people on the future EU's doorstep.

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma (both of whose countries already border NATO) have been told by the alliance that they are unwelcome at this week's Prague summit. In the case of Lukashenka, the Czech Republic rejected the his entry-visa application, and he is now facing a possible Europe-wide travel ban. In response, Lukashenka has suggested he might loosen his own country's border controls and flood Western Europe with illegal immigrants and narcotics.

Ukraine's Kuchma is embroiled in a major controversy connected with his country's alleged transfer of a Kolchuga radar system to Iraq, an act that has put the Ukrainian president squarely in Washington's crosshairs.

Belarus and Ukraine have settled into a particularly alarming pattern of behavior, where one is more likely to hear of illegal arms deals and "disappearances" of opposition figures and independent journalists, than news of credible economic or political reforms. This behavior raises profound questions concerning the shape and character of the new, enlarging Europe: Will countries not on a near-term EU or NATO track manage to strike a reform course to enable their productive and meaningful participation in modern European affairs? Or will these societies remain stuck in place, effectively shutting off the road to stability and prosperity and thus increasing the likelihood of new dividing lines in Europe?

The Baltic states and other candidate countries of Central Europe are proceeding apace with their reform and modernization efforts and soon expect to be full members in the two desired Western clubs (the Czechs, Hungarians, and Poles already became full members in NATO in 1999). Slovenia and Slovakia, which missed out on the first round of NATO enlargement, are this time around expected to receive invitations to join both the trans-Atlantic alliance and the EU. And with a post-11 September push, Bulgaria and Romania also are expected to be welcomed into NATO.

Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova -- none of which is on the Western organizations' short lists -- stand in stark contrast. EU President Romano Prodi offered precisely such a differentiated vision of Europe last month, affirming that the Balkans are "fated to join the European family," while giving a much less generous appraisal of the three lands to the enlarged EU's immediate east.

Belarus, a self-isolated state of 10 million people, has recently refused to extend the diplomatic accreditation of the last remaining member of the OSCE's Advisory and Monitoring Group (AMG), Alina Josan, thereby completing its emasculation of the OSCE representation in Minsk. That mission had been engaged in monitoring Belarus's commitments on political and human rights issues, and Josan's expulsion at the end of October followed the expulsion by the Belarusian authorities of the AMG acting head in April 2002, the deputy acting head in June 2002, and its human-dimension officer in September 2002.

In recent years, former Interior Minister Yury Zakharanka, opposition politician Viktar Hanchar, Hanchar's businessman friend Anatol Krasouski, and journalist Dzmitry Zavadski, all have disappeared and are believed dead. Minsk is suspected of selling dual-use technology to Baghdad. The Belarusian leadership, not eager to build links to the West, has oriented itself toward a set of outlaw states around the globe.

Ukraine has dug itself into a particularly deep hole in its relations with the United States. Washington has said that there is a "crisis of confidence" in bilateral relations and has suspended $55 million in aid in the wake of Kyiv's reported $100 million sale of a Kolchuga radar system to Iraq. A UN report issued in 2002 under the auspices of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) found that in 1999 Ukraine sent two helicopters and spare parts to Belgrade just before the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia began. And there is, of course, the horrifying case of journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, in whose murder the Ukrainian president has been implicated.

By engaging in such behavior, these countries risk acquiring the image in Western public opinion of virtually unsalvageable cases. This is, however, only part of the equation. How Belarusians and Ukrainians view themselves remains an open question. Do they see a place for themselves in the West?

European prosperity and security are not divisible. Therefore, sooner or later, the EU must find a coherent and cohesive policy approach to the unstable lands on its eastern flank, ideally in a coordination and cooperation with the United States.

Discussion of EU and NATO enlargement creating new dividing lines is frowned upon in Euro-Atlantic discourse. But the reality is that forward-looking countries in the Central and Eastern Europe have dedicated themselves to joining the Western family of truly democratic states. The question is not really whether there will be a new dividing line. Instead, it is whether countries on the new Europe's margin -- among them Belarus and Ukraine -- will ultimately choose to take the difficult but very much needed steps to ensure that any new dividing line does not become permanent.

Christopher Walker is head of the Rapid Response Unit at the EastWest Institute. The views expressed in this article are his own.

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