Uzbekistan will hold elections to its parliament, the Oliy Majlis, on 26 December 2004, and presidential elections sometime in 2007. Neither election is likely to offer any serious departure from the established order of politics in the country.

Amendments to the constitution in 2002 changed the structure of the Uzbek parliament. In the upcoming elections, the current 250-seat unicameral parliament will be replaced by a bicameral parliament (the Senate, or Upper House, will have 100 seats; the Legislative Assembly, or Lower House, will have 120 seats).

There are five officially registered political parties in Uzbekistan, and all support the policies of President Islam Karimov.

Of the five, the two newest parties -- Fidokorlar and the Liberal-Democratic Party -- seem to enjoy the greatest official favor. The majority of members in both parties are in their 30s and early 40s and seem poised to become the next generation of Uzbekistan's leaders.

Fidokorlar was formed less than a year before the 1999 parliamentary elections but still managed to win the second-largest number of seats in parliament in that election. The party that received the third-highest number of votes, Watan Taraqqiyoti, merged with Fidokorlar in 2000, giving Fidokorlar the largest faction in parliament. Though all five parties nominated incumbent Karimov for re-election in 2000, Karimov chose to officially accept Fidokorlar's nomination.

Fidokorlar was the newest official political party in Uzbekistan until the registration of the Liberal-Democratic party in late 2003.

In a sign that this newest party enjoys official support, Karimov spoke of it highly at a session of parliament in April 2004. After criticizing the other political parties -- he said they "do not have a solid, independent platform, to the point where they differ little from one another" -- Karimov described the Liberal-Democratic party as "being created not to compliment each other and the authorities, but for criticism."

The rise in fortunes of these two new parties has come at the expense of the People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (Halq Demokratik Partiyasi, or HDP), the country's oldest registered political party and the successor to the Communist Party of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic. The HDP still claims some 580,000 registered members but its leader lost to Karimov in the last presidential election, and the party seems to have fallen out of official favor in recent years, despite the fact that Karimov was once its chairman.

There are also three unregistered, secular opposition parties or movements in Uzbekistan. The Erk Democratic Party and Birlik Democratic Movement already existed when Uzbekistan became independent. Both renewed their public activities in 2003, in a test of the possibilities afforded by the increased amount of international media attention on Uzbekistan since it became a key country in the campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan.

Though Erk and Birlik managed to hold some public meetings and briefly staged unsanctioned demonstrations, neither was successful in their attempts to register with the Justice Ministry and participate in parliamentary elections. In early November 2004, Erk called for a boycott of the upcoming parliamentary elections. Key leaders from both opposition groups remain outside the country, having fled Uzbekistan in the 1990s.

The Free Peasants' party (Ozod Dehkonlar Partiyasi)f also reappeared in late 2003, and also failed to gain registration with the Justice Ministry.

Upcoming elections feature same players as before, promise few surprises

Five parties competed in the 1999 parliamentary elections, but in their party platforms and support for Karimov's policies, they differed very little. Five parties will again compete in December 2004, and again, in their party platforms and support for Karimov's policies, they differ very little.

Similarly, the presidential election scheduled for 2007 appears headed down a familiar path. There is no clear successor to Karimov or any clear rival to the incumbent.

Uzbekistan's last presidential election, in January 2000, was most notable for the fact that Karimov's rival, Abdulkhafiz Jalolov of the People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan, said publicly in the run-up to elections that he supported Karimov, and on election day, proudly told reporters that he had cast his own ballot for his opponent.

The OSCE released a statement just after the 1999 parliamentary elections noting that "hakims (mayors and governors) exercise overwhelming influence on the electoral process...including nominations of candidates and conduct of elections." The statement said that in some cases, hakims may have interfered because of "deficient legal provisions" but it also noted that more than 70 hakims, their deputies, and staff were candidates. The OSCE also said "the absence of diverse and independent media further stunted the development of a genuine political debate and campaign during the elections."

The OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights also released a statement on 11 January 2000, two days after the presidential elections, saying it regretted the absence of democratic competition during the election and that the election fell far short of Uzbekistan's commitment to the OSCE.

The following day, U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin said the elections were "neither free nor fair, and offered Uzbekistan's voters no true choice." He added, "The government of Uzbekistan refused to register truly independent opposition parties, nor did it permit members of these parties to run for president." He also noted that "the sole candidate permitted to oppose President Karimov was a public supporter of Karimov's policies and leadership, and was quoted during the campaign as stating he himself intended to vote for Karimov."

In early November 2004, the OSCE chairman-in-office's personal envoy for Central Asia, Marti Ahtisaari, visited Uzbekistan and said he was sorry that "it will not be possible at this stage to hold the elections with [a] greater participation of different political views." Ahtisaari noted that a number of opposition parties tried to register to participate in elections but were rejected by the Justice Ministry. Without genuine opposition parties running, he said, "the elections will be seen as an internal exercise of the government."

The OSCE will send a limited observer mission to the December parliamentary election.