China In Eurasia

Welcome back to the China In Eurasia briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter tracking China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish and here's what I'm following right now.

Beijing, Moscow, And An Eye On Afghanistan

In the latest display of their deepening ties, Beijing and Moscow held military exercises this week in western China, with a focus on security in Central Asia and Afghanistan.

Finding Perspective: As I reported here, the drills come amid big changes taking place in the security environment across Eurasia that are increasingly on the radar of both China and Russia.

Afghanistan In Turmoil: Full Coverage On Gandhara

Read RFE/RL's Gandhara website for complete coverage of developments in Afghanistan. Gandhara is the go-to source for English-language reporting by RFE/RL's Radio Azadi and its network of journalists, and by RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal, which offers extensive coverage of Pakistan's remote tribal regions.

More than 10,000 troops from the Chinese and Russian militaries participated in the Zapad/Interaction 2021 exercises in a training that marked the fourth consecutive exercises between Beijing and Moscow and the first joint drills held in China.

China and Russia have been growing closer over the years, but especially since 2014, when Russia found itself hit by Western sanctions. The exercises are part of this larger trend and they highlighted growing interoperability between both countries' militaries.

The focus on Central Asia and how the situation in Afghanistan could destabilize the wider region also points to another area of mutual concern for both countries.

While the Chinese and Russian analysts I spoke with were quick to note that neither Beijing or Moscow is intent on forging a formal military alliance, the way both countries respond to security challenges in the region will define how their relationship matures in the coming years.

Why It Matters: The Taliban's dramatic sweep to power this week is just the beginning of what's to come.

Refugee flows into Central Asia and beyond are likely to be a major issue moving forward and Uzbekistan has shown how it will defend its borders, detaining fleeing Afghan soldiers and shooting down an Afghan Air Force plane it says illegally entered its air space.

Russia's ambassador to Afghanistan has already met with the Taliban since they took Kabul, and China had stepped up its engagement with the militants as they advanced across the country.

What comes next is still very uncertain, but Afghanistan will continue to be a major test for both China and Russia.

Read more

● My colleague Frud Bezhan has a good article breaking down what happened this week in Afghanistan and where things might be headed next for the Taliban and the country. Read it here.

● For a deeper look at Moscow's calculus toward the Taliban's takeover, RFE/RL's Mike Eckel has a sharp piece breaking things down.

● To follow the latest in Afghanistan, check out RFE/RL's Gandhara website, which is full of reporting on the ground.

Expert Corner: Is China After Afghan Resources?

Readers asked, "Does China have its sights on Afghan resources now that the Taliban is in charge?"

To find out more, I asked Raffaello Pantucci, a senior associate fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute.

"Chinese companies have long looked at untapped mineral resources in Afghanistan as opportunities...[but] they will have also observed that the two previous large extractive investment projects in Afghanistan have encountered substantial difficulties. It is difficult for me to see how this situation becomes easier now that we have a Taliban-led government in charge."

"So far, much of the actual investment and projects that have taken place in Afghanistan have been company- or individual entrepreneur-led. I have seen little evidence of the Chinese government pushing its companies into projects in the country."

"Undoubtedly, Chinese companies will see that their government seemingly has some understanding with the Taliban and will be willing to explore opportunities, but they will think very carefully before jumping in."

Do you have a question about China's growing footprint in Eurasia? Send it to me at StandishR@rferl.org or reply directly to this e-mail and I'll get it answered by leading experts and policymakers.

Three More Stories From Eurasia

1. China's Uyghur Dragnet Goes Global

China has used its massive economic clout in Pakistan to gain Islamabad's cooperation in its transnational campaign targeting Uyghurs, according to a new report from the Oxus Society for Central Asian affairs and the Uyghur Human Rights Project.

What's Important: Pakistan was the first country to actively collaborate with Beijing in monitoring and extraditing Uyghurs to China and cooperation has only deepened as the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has been built up.

The key assertion of the report is that this is part of a deliberate Chinese strategy centered upon "offering extravagant development projects while deepening security ties," which has been effective in influencing the Pakistani government to help target the country's Uyghur community.

This model for cooperation built with Islamabad is also a template that Beijing is looking to export elsewhere in Asia and the Middle East. You can read more about it here in my article where I spoke with the report's authors.

In another sign of this regional trend, AP reported about the existence of a Chinese secret detention facility operating in Dubai, where a Chinese woman says she was held for eight days along with at least two Uyghurs.

2. The Baltics Vs. Beijing

A diplomatic spat between Lithuania and China over Taiwan has pushed Europe's relations with Beijing back into the spotlight as the European Union struggles to define its increasingly shaky relationship with Beijing. Read the full article here.

What Happened: Things kicked off on August 10, when China recalled its ambassador to the Baltic country in response to Lithuania's decision to set up a diplomatic office in Taiwan. This was followed by China demanding that Vilnius recall its ambassador from Beijing.

Things have since escalated further as Beijing has banned freight trains from China going to Lithuania.

Beijing's anger centers around Lithuania's move to open a representative office in Taipei under the name Taiwan. (Most representative offices use Taipei, the capital, in the official name.)

China's tough response is meant as a warning shot to other countries in Europe looking to follow suit and comes amid changing sentiment toward Beijing across the EU.

The Bigger Picture: This isn't an isolated incident.

Vilnius and Beijing had a previous spat in the spring, when Lithuania left the "17+1," a Beijing-led format for engaging with Central and Eastern European countries, and the Baltic country has been vocal in its criticism of China over Hong Kong and its treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

The episode comes as many countries in the EU are readjusting their China policies and the spat with Lithuania could have broader ripple effects, especially in Central and Eastern Europe.

While Lithuania is unlikely to steer the EU, it could be a harbinger of what's down the line for Beijing. One looming event that could start a shift is Germany's September elections, which could set the stage for a far more pragmatic approach to China across Europe.

3. China Road and Bridge Corporation In the Spotlight

The National Council for the Fight against High-Level Corruption in Montenegro announced that the current Montenegrin government must criminally prosecute those responsible from the previous government for the devastation of the Tara River, RFE/RL's Balkan Service reported.

Digging Deeper: Calovic Markovic, who heads the council, which functions as an independent oversight body, also said that the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), which is building a section of the almost $1 billion Bar-Boljare highway, should not be allowed to leave Montenegro until it compensates for the environmental damage caused to the river.

Markovic also called to publicize all sections of the contract signed with CRBC by the previous government, an election promise by the current government that is unfulfilled.

The highway, which is financed by a loan taken out by the previous government from the Export-Import Bank of China, has been a source of controversy in Montenegro and internationally.

The project has also long been a target for anti-corruption activists in the Balkan country and the push from the council is a sign that the Chinese-funded highway will continue to be a thorny issue in Montenegrin politics.

Across The Supercontinent

No Man's Land: An ethnic Kazakh man from Xinjiang is detained in Ukraine after trying to cross the border into Slovakia, RFE/RL's Ukrainian and Kazakh services reported.

The man had previously held temporary asylum in Ukraine and was sent back by Slovak authorities after he attempted to enter the country. He is currently in a detention facility in Ukraine and has reapplied for asylum.

Chinese Apps On The Rise: Didi, the Chinese ride-sharing app, is growing its footprint across Russia and undercutting its competitors, my colleague Elina Yagudina of RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service reported.

Islamabad Investigates: Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said that Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies were behind the July 14 bus blast that killed 13 people, including nine Chinese workers, and that the Pakistani Taliban carried out the attack. Indian officials have said the claim is "baseless."

Practice Run: China and Tajikistan kicked off military exercises outside the capital, Dushanbe, on August 17, RFE/RL's Tajik Service reported.

One Thing To Watch

Chinese hacking and digital surveillance are on the rise across Eurasia.

A U.S. firm accused the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei of requiring it to set up a safe city system that gives Huawei access to sensitive national security information, including data on citizens and government officials in Pakistan.

That accusation comes after another report by the cybersecurity firm FireEye that said that Chinese hackers broke into computers across Israel's government and tech companies in 2019 and 2020 and planted code in Persian to disguise themselves as an Iranian group.

Another recent report from the Group-IB security consulting group said that they believed a 2019 cyberattack against Russian federal authorities was also likely carried out by Chinese hackers.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments, or tips that you might have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

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A diplomatic spat between Lithuania and China over Taiwan has pushed Europe's relations with Beijing back into the spotlight as the European Union struggles with how to define its increasingly shaky relationship with the world's second-largest economy.

The latest episode between Vilnius and Beijing kicked off on August 10, when China recalled its ambassador to the Baltic country in response to Lithuania's decision to set up a diplomatic office in Taiwan. This was followed by China demanding that Vilnius recall its ambassador from Beijing.

Beijing's anger centers around Lithuania's move to open a representative office in Taipei under the name Taiwan. While Taiwan has a diplomatic presence in more than 70 countries, most representative offices use Taipei, its capital, in the official name.

China views the island of Taiwan as part of its territory and asserts the right to unify both sides, with Beijing pushing countries to renounce ties with Taipei as a condition of establishing relations under what it calls the "one-China principle." Consequently, only 15 countries recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state.

Beijing's tough response to Lithuania is seen as a warning shot to other countries in Europe looking to follow suit and comes amid changing sentiment across the 27-member EU toward China.

Brussels has found it increasingly difficult to balance growing concerns about human rights in China and the bloc's desire to gain deeper access to China's lucrative markets. But many of the EU's smaller countries -- such as the Baltic states -- and Romania have led the charge toward a deeper shift in how to engage with China.

"Lithuania has been at the forefront of this trend," Frank Juris, an expert at the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute under the International Center for Defense and Security, told RFE/RL. "The traditional Chinese approach of singling out small states and pressuring them is proving to be counterproductive."

The recent escalation with Beijing comes after a previous diplomatic row between China and the Baltic country of 2.7 million in which Vilnius quit the "17+1" platform -- a Beijing-led format for engaging with Central and Eastern European countries -- and could have ripple effects across the wider region.

SEE ALSO:

Chinese Summit Gets Chilly Reception From Central, Eastern European Countries

Vilnius has also been an increasingly vocal critic of China's actions in Hong Kong and its western province of Xinjiang -- the country's parliament described Beijing's treatment of its Uyghur minority there as "genocide" in May -- and has donated vaccines to Taiwan throughout the pandemic.

"What has been happening is part of an evolution in foreign policy that is several years in the making," Konstantinas Andrijauskas, a China expert at Vilnius University, told RFE/RL. "The economic promises of engagement with China have not come and [Beijing's] behavior is seen as threatening the rules-based international order that Lithuania has benefited from."

The New Era

In an August 15 interview with the Financial Times, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said his country would not back down from its dispute with Beijing. "We would like to also have relations with China based on the principle of mutual respect," Nauseda said. "Otherwise the dialogue turns into unilateral ultimatums, requirements which are not acceptable in international relations."

Additionally, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman expressed solidarity with Vilnius during an August 13 phone call with Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, and EU foreign affairs spokeswoman Nabila Massrali said the episode could impact wider EU-China relations and that Brussels stood behind its member state.

"We do not regard the opening of a representative office in or from Taiwan [as opposed to an embassy or consulate] as a breach of the EU's one China policy," Massrali said in a statement.

In May, the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to freeze the process for ratifying the EU's investment pact with China unless it lifts sanctions against the bloc's lawmakers that were imposed after Brussels placed sanctions on Chinese officials over the mass internment of Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang.

SEE ALSO:

Europe Signals Harder Line On Beijing With Frozen EU-China Trade Deal

Since then, debate in Brussels has continued over where the EU should place itself amid an intensifying global rivalry between Beijing and Washington and a more aggressive posture from China.

Amid the current diplomatic spat between Beijing and Vilnius, Lithuania has found itself as a target of China's state-run media, which has characterized the Baltic country as a U.S. proxy intent on derailing relations between China and the EU.

An August 13 editorial from the Global Times, an outlet controlled by China's Communist Party, criticized Lithuania's policies towards Beijing and went on to call for a joint effort with Belarus and Russia to "punish" Vilnius as a warning to other countries. "China and Russia should take proper opportunities to strike against a country that has lost its mind. This should be the new content and guidance for China-Russia strategic cooperation," the editorial said.

"Moscow is seen as the main threat for Lithuania, and Russia and China's closer relationship is a cause for worry among policymakers [in Vilnius]," Andrijauskas said. "Whether or not China and Russia would actually work together against Lithuania, this rhetoric is confirming some of the worst fears about Beijing."

The New Limits

Despite the harsh words from Beijing, Lithuania has limited economic exposure to the world's second-largest economy -- China is the country's 12th-largest trading partner -- which has allowed it more room to maneuver in its dispute with China. Similar situations exist for other smaller countries in the EU that have signaled their displeasure with Beijing.

During the 17+1 summit in February, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovenia chose to send ministers instead of their head of state or government, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping chairing the meeting for the first time. The move was seen as a rebuke of the grouping and a sign of growing skepticism toward China in Central and Eastern Europe.

Romania is another country that has taken a tougher line against China recently, with Bucharest pushing out Chinese companies from core sectors like nuclear power and telecommunications. The moves are partly possible because Romania does not have to defend the interests of large national companies with stakes in China and the government's desire to boost domestic companies.

Andreea Brinza, vice president of the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific, told RFE/RL that while Bucharest enacted policies in regards to Beijing, "Romania hasn't expressed any interest in following in Lithuania's footsteps," pointing to how in contrast to Vilnius, Bucharest has been quiet on human rights issues in China.

According to Brinza, Bucharest -- like many countries in the EU -- is still taking most of its cues on China policy from Brussels and "the big EU countries' positions," mainly France and Germany.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, will hold federal elections in September and Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, a candidate for chancellor -- has pushed for a more China-skeptic foreign policy. Armin Laschet, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union and another chancellor candidate, has also begun to adopt a more pragmatic stance toward China after initially calling for a continuation of Chancellor Angela Merkel's middle path with Beijing.

Tamas Matura, an assistant professor at Corvinus University in Budapest, told RFE/RL that Hungary will be watching the German elections closely. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban maintains close relations with Beijing -- including controversial plans to establish a branch of a Chinese university -- and China looms increasingly large in the country's politics.

SEE ALSO:

'The Underhanded Sale Of Our Sovereignty': How China Became An Election Issue In Hungary

Matura said disputes such as the one with Lithuania and a general worsening of relations between the EU and China may make Budapest "even more important in the eyes of Beijing" as a regional player in the bloc eager to engage with China, but that the outcome of the German vote and other shifts across Europe could cause Hungary to pull back.

"If the pressure gets too high in the long run, especially after the German elections, Budapest may have to reconsider its position as well," Matura said.