Qishloq Ovozi (Archive)

Foreign forces in Afghanistan will complete their "drawdown" by the end of this year. Though several thousand troops will remain for a while, as of 2015 the Afghan government is in charge of maintaining security throughout the country on its own.

Central Asia's governments have been dreading January 1, 2015, for many months. Many remember the last half of the 1990s, when the Taliban was stretching its rule along Afghanistan's northern border and the problems of the country seeped into Central Asia.

This is the first in a series of articles that will regularly track what measures the Central Asian governments are taking to ward off the potential threat from the south, which outside players are aiding them in their efforts, and who is sounding the alarm.

This part looks at what happened in July.

We'll start with the meeting of foreign ministers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on July 30-31.

And for anyone unacquainted with SCO, the members are: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

Interestingly, Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov attended and had well-publicized separate meetings on the sidelines with his Kyrgyz and Tajik counterparts. The relationship between the Uzbek government and the governments of all the other Central Asian states has not been good since they all became independent in late1991. But Uzbekistan's recent relationships with eastern neighbors Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan could be said to represent the lowest level since independence.

The last time Tashkent reached out to Bishkek and Dushanbe was after the Taliban seized Kabul in September 1996. The presidents of the three countries, plus Kazakhstan, even used to meet regularly with each other during that time (without any Russian or Chinese leaders in the same room), and they created several regional organizations (that Turkmenistan never joined).

So Komilov's meetings with Erlan Abdyldaev and Sirojidin Aslov deserve some attention. It could be the start of a shift in Uzbekistan's regional security policy.

At the SCO meeting, one of the main topics was Afghanistan, but that has been true for many years now. The ministers also had to finalize the agenda for the SCO summit in Dushanbe, scheduled for September 11-12, which, it is rumored, could include the induction of a new member (Hello, India!).

But other meetings on the sidelines were more interesting.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Tajik counterpart Aslov to remind, in front of the media, that Russia is in the process of rearming Tajikistan's military and that the Russian military base in Tajikistan is vital for maintaining Central Asia's regional stability.

Ahead of the SCO foreign ministers' meeting, SCO Secretary-General Dmitry Mezentsev was in Dushanbe (July 28) to meet with Aslov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and discuss the fight against terrorism.

Visiting Tajikistan on July 31 was the head of CENTCOM, U.S. Army General Lloyd Austin. According to President Rahmon's website, he and Austin discussed the "current situation and developments in Afghanistan, specifically, after the withdrawal of the international peacekeeping forces, and on continued support for relevant Tajik agencies to step up protection of the country's lengthy border with its southern neighbor."

Before arriving in Tajikistan, Austin was in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent. Austin left Uzbekistan amid rumors, especially in Russian media, he was negotiating use of a base in Uzbekistan (I guess no one remembers Navoi and Termez).

In Kyrgyzstan, the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization held military exercises -- Unbreakable Brotherhood -- from July 29 to August 2. According to Kyrgyz Television 1, "about 700 troops from CSTO member states attended...three battalions from Russia and Kazakhstan each, and one battalion from each of the remaining countries -- Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Tajikistan."

According to ITAR-TASS, "Belarus and Tajikistan are represented at the exercise by operative groups and peacekeeping platoons, while Russia has put up commanding post staff and a 60-men-strong task force. Kazakhstan sent an operative group to the drills, a battalion, an air assault company, an engineer platoon, a medical platoon and combat aviation. Armenia is represented by an operative group and an infantry platoon and hosts Kyrgyzstan provided for the drills a mountain infantry battalion and combat aviation."

The exercises were held near Tokmok, some 60 kilometers from Bishkek. Kyrgyz Television reported the soldiers "conducted five tactical episodes: repelling an attack on a convoy; releasing hostages; protecting a key government facility; dealing with a mass disturbance; and escorting humanitarian aid."

Prior to the Unbreakable Brotherhood exercises, the CSTO held the Frontier-2014 at the Chebarkul firing range in Russia, from July 15-18. Frontier-2014 was a command exercise to practice assembling the CSTO's Rapid Deployment Forces at an area of hostilities and confronting an enemy. The hypothetical area of deployment was the Tajik-Afghan border, according to the Tajik Defense Ministry's press service.

Coming up, the CSTO has another exercise scheduled in Kazakhstan from August 18 to 22 and the SCO will be holding a military exercise in Inner Mongolia from August 24 to 29.

Individually, Tajikistan conducted an antiterrorist exercise in the Romit Gorge, scene of fighting from September 2010 to April 2011 between government forces and Islamic militants led by commanders from Tajikistan's civil war days. Tajikistan's Internal Affairs Ministry said, "methods of destroying terrorist groups in mountainous areas were practiced" during the 17-day drill.

The ministry noted the "staff of the police task force detachment, a police rapid-reaction regiment, the task force of the National Guard, as well as the Alfa [task force] group of the SCNS [State Committee for National Security] successfully conducted an operation to destroy a simulated terrorist group during the final phase of the drills on 19 July."

Kazakhstan's Defense Ministry reported on July 29 that it conducted live-fire night training with Mi-17 and Mi-24 helicopters to practice "finding the positions of a simulated enemy."

Lastly, the court cases.

The governments of Central Asia have always been keen to clearly demonstrate to the public the consequences for joining or helping banned Islamic groups. Reports about convictions and sentencing of alleged militants are common in Uzbek and Tajik media and are becoming more frequent in the media of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. It is not always clear the people convicted are really guilty. But they are meant to be an example of the penalties awaiting anyone who associates with Islamic radicals and militants.

In Uzbekistan, six people, three of them women, were convicted on July 23 of being members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the bête noire of the Uzbek government. The regional court in Kashkadarya Province handed down sentences ranging from nine to 15 years in prison.

Kashkadarya Province does not border Afghanistan, but it is very close.

Some recent quotes about Central Asia, Afghanistan, and security:

CSTO chief Nikolai Bordyuzha at the July 29 opening of the "Unbreakable Brotherhood" exercises:

"These exercises should act as confirmation of the readiness of the anti-terrorism potential of the organization."

Chief of the General Staff of Kyrgyzstan's Armed Forces General Asylbek Alymkozhoev speaking at the opening of the "Unbreakable Brotherhood" exercises:

"In the lead-up to the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan, the situation in region is becoming tense due to the threats of terrorist attacks..."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Dushanbe on July 30:

"The situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating and could have a negative impact on security in the Central Asian region."

Tajik President Rahmon on June 19 addressing Tajikistan's border guards about the situation in Afghanistan:

"Tajik border guards' responsibilities will double after the withdrawal foreign troops in 2014 because the threats of terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking can increase."

Uzbek President Islam Karimov, speaking to CENTCOM commander Austin:

"In view of all the changes that are taking place in Afghanistan, to what extent will the U.S.A. keep its presence [in Afghanistan]? How will the U.S.A.'s current role in Central Asia change if you are going to withdraw your troops from Afghanistan?"

-- Bruce Pannier, with contributions by Tohir Safarov of RFE/RL's Tajik Service

Few people now would recognize the name Viktor Kazimirchuk but it has undoubtedly returned to the thoughts of some people in Kazakhstan lately, including President Nursultan Nazarbaev.

Since pro-Russian separatists started their activities in eastern Ukraine, there has been speculation about which, if any, of the former Soviet republics might receive the Kremlin's unwanted attention next. Invariably Kazakhstan, still with a sizeable population of Russian/Slavic people, is among the first mentioned.

But Kazakhstan differs from the other potential candidates because there already was an attempt by Russian separatists to seize an area in Kazakhstan.

Moscow-resident Viktor Kazimirchuk was arrested and convicted in the Central Asian country for being the leader of a Russian separatist group nearly 15 years ago.

According to investigators and security officials, in late 1999 and early 2000, Kazimirchuk and his small group called "Rus" planned to take over the administration of Kazakhstan's northeastern city of Oskemen (formerly Ust-Kamenogorsk), near the Russian border, declare the region Russian territory, and appeal to Moscow to incorporate the area into the Russian Federation.

Some dismissed the charges against Kazimirchuk, or Viktor "Pugachev" as he preferred to be called -- after the 18th century insurrectionist who led a Cossack revolt against Catherine II. They pointed out that the 22 people in the group, 12 of them Russian nationals, were mostly young, and when the group was detained their weapons consisted of a few grenades, hunting rifles, ammunition for automatic weapons, and some Molotov cocktails.

Kazimirchuk's group could not have been more obvious about what they intended to do. A newspaper in the Russia's Siberian city of Omsk published reports on the activities of "Rus" in Kazakhstan before the group was detained. Some people claimed Kazimirchuk and some of his band openly spoke about their plans on the streets of Oskemen.

Appeals From Moscow

Kazimirchuk claimed he had support from the Russian population in northern Kazakhstan and from officials in the Russian government, though he did not name anyone specifically. However, the Russian government did take an interest in the situation around Kazimirchuk and his group.

The Russian Embassy in Kazakhstan offered to hire Moscow attorneys for the accused, Russia's ministries of Foreign Affairs and CIS* Affairs tried to have the Russian national repatriated and Russia's human rights commissioner at the time appealed to President Nazarbaev to show compassion for the group as their trial date approached.

After the detention of Kazimirchuk's group, Aleksandr Shushannikov, a leader of the now defunct Russian nationalist group in Kazakhstan "Lad," was quoted in an interview as saying that "the population here has gotten to the point where any extremist in the region who describes himself as a defender of the Russian people can count on the support of the entire population of East-Kazakhstan province."

Shushannikov was exaggerating quite a bit but he hit a sensitive nerve for Kazakhstan's government, which had feared moves from the Russian and Cossack population in northern Kazakhstan. Roughly one-third of Kazakhstan's population was Russian/Slavic at that time and most were in the northern regions near the Russian border.

A 'Bright Path' For Returnees

There were groups like Lad, and Cossack groups in the 1990s that openly spoke about sectioning off their territories and joining Russia.

Many believed then, and still do believe, that the main reason President Nazarbaev decided to move Kazakhstan's capital in 1997 from the pleasant mountains of Almaty in the south to Astana in the frozen steppe land of the north was to cement Kazakhstan's hold over its northern regions where the Russian/Slavic population was at least equal to the ethnic Kazakh population.

The move forced many unhappy ethnic Kazakh government officials to relocate to the new northern capital.

Kazakhstan's government also used a repatriation program to bolster the ethnic balance in the north.

Not many years after independence Kazakhstan started the "Nurli Zhol" (Bright Path) program for the Oralman.

An Oralman is an ethnic Kazakh who was living outside Kazakhstan, and usually outside the U.S.S.R., when Kazakhstan became independent in late 1991.

Many such Kazakhs moved back to their "homeland" from China and especially from Mongolia.

In March this year, an official order was issued that all the Oralman who returned were to be settled in the Akmola, Atyrau, West-Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Pavlodar, North-Kazakhstan, and East-Kazakhstan provinces.

With the exception of Atyrau and Akmola, all those provinces border Russia.

More than a few people saw the move as being prompted by events in eastern Ukraine.

That order has just been rescinded and the Oralman can now settle in any of Kazakhstan's 14 provinces.

RFE/RL's Kazakhstan Service, Azattyq, spoke with the deputy chairman of Kazakhstan's Committee for Migration, Aslan Karzhaubaev.

He explained the original reason for restricting the Oralman to northern regions was the tendency of those repatriated to settle in southern regions where the population was already dense. But after a review, he said, the Oralman were free to settle wherever they wanted in Kazakhstan.

Zamirichuk's Eerie Remarks

Because this tale started with Russian separatists in Kazakhstan it will end with them also.

Viktor Kazimirchuk was sentenced to 18 years in prison, but was released from prison in Kazakhstan in 2006. He returned to Russia and in December 2007 gave an interview to the Zavtra.ru website, which had printed some of Kazimichuk's appeals to Kazakhstan's Russian population before the Rus leader was arrested.

What the Russian separatist said then is eerie when viewing the situation in eastern Ukraine today.

Zamirichuk claimed there was discrimination in East-Kazakhstan not only against Russians, but against Russian speakers, whom he claimed accounted for 70 percent of the population of the province.

"The opinion of everyone was that we did not have anything in common with Kazakhstan, that this was Russian territory and that the situation was like that, say, in the Pridnestr [Transdneister], or in Crimea, which up until now is located in Ukraine," Kazimirchuk said.

Kazakhstan is far more prosperous now than it was 15 years ago and many of the Russians who have stayed are far more integrated into the society of the country.

But Russians/Slavs still account for about one-quarter of Kazakhstan's population and that puts President Nazarbaev in an unenviable position where he must appease the Kazakhs of Kazakhstan and simultaneously be careful not to provoke any of the Russian population into appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help.