Qishloq Ovozi (Archive)

Afghanistan's problems are now clearly visible from Turkmenistan's side of their border, and despite Ashgabat's efforts to keep its neighbor's affairs from spilling over the frontier, fighting has now reached Turkmenistan's doorstep.

Afghan forces under the command of Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum reportedly chased Taliban militants from villages in the northern part of Jowzjan Province in an operation that started on October 21 and on October 23 were said to have been preparing for an assault on several dozen Taliban fighters on an island in the Amu-Darya river that divides Afghanistan from Turkmenistan.

RFE/RL's Turkmen Service, known locally as Azatlyk, interviewed officials on the Afghan side of the border to learn about the situation as of October 23.

Dostum spokesman Sultan Faizi said that some of the militants who had recently occupied villages in Jowzjan's Hamyab district that borders Turkmenistan were forced from the villages when Dostum's forces launched an assault from the south.

Faiz said that "the Taliban fled and took shelter on that island, then Vice President Dostum ordered his forces to get ready to force the Taliban to either surrender or fight." Faizi added that Dostum's forces had already taken up positions on the southern bank of the river in preparation for the assault.

"We also contacted the Turkmen side; they were told to get ready because those terrorists are not only threatening Afghanistan... they are a threat to the region," Faizi told Azatlyk. "Turkmenistan is being made fully aware of what is happening and they told us they've made necessary preparations for this."

Faizi said it was important that the "terrorists" not escape. "If Turkmenistan does not allow them [Taliban] to cross into its territory, it is a big victory."

The problem is, Dostum has a reputation for being less than gentle with enemy combatants captured by his forces, dating back to allegations of atrocities against Taliban prisoners in late 2001. As a result, the Taliban fighters on that island might be unlikely to surrender to Dostum's forces.

Faizi claimed that half of the island belongs to Turkmenistan and the other half to Afghanistan -- implying that Dostum's forces had the right to attack militants on the island without Turkmenistan's permission.

However, Turkmen authorities have patrolled the island and in recent months arrested and sometimes jailed Afghan citizens found on the island grazing their livestock after fording from the Afghan side.

While Faizi expressed certainty that Ashgabat had been informed of what Dostum was planning, he hinted that Turkmen authorities had not given any clear indication of their intentions when he said that "they [Taliban] are enemies of the entire region -- that is why we are expecting a positive response from Turkmenistan."

Jowzjan Deputy Governor Abdulrahman Mamudi agreed that Dostum's forces had chased the Taliban from the Hamyab district and that some of the militants had made their way to the island. He added that Turkmenistan had promised to help, but "at this moment the terrorists are on the Afghan side [of the island]."

Azatlyk noted that Dostum's forces routed militants from northern areas just a few weeks back but the militants returned after Dostum left the area. Mamudi responded that this time the situation would be different. Dostum, he said, had ordered him and other officials to return to Hamyab and promised to reconstruct damaged administration buildings. Mamudi said Dostum was also working with local militias, Arbaky, to ensure the Taliban could not return to Jowzjan and capture towns and villages.

Azatlyk Director Muhammad Tahir contributed to this report.

When Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev said on October 19 that a "real crisis is coming" to his country, it must have sent chills down the spines of Kazakhstan's people.

Many people in Kazakhstan are already in a crisis situation and for more than a year they have been listening to government officials downplay the severity of the economic problems, only to learn later that those problems were worse than they had been led to believe. And now the president says the "real" trouble is about to begin.

RFE/RL's Kazakh Service, known locally as Azattyq, has been reporting regularly on the worsening economic situation in Kazakhstan.

On October 20, Azattyq reported on Anar, a schoolteacher, who together with her husband, a driver in Almaty, is raising six children on a combined monthly budget of some 100,000 tenge.

"Our income is barely enough for daily meals, not to mention school supplies or clothing," Anar told Azattyq.

Less than two years ago, 100,000 tenge per month would have been an adequate amount of money, somewhere around $650. The government devalued the tenge to about 180 to $1 in February 2014. At the time the government promised there would be no second devaluation.

However, Kazakhstan's economy is dependent on oil exports. The falling price of oil hit Kazakhstan hard but Russia, one of Kazakhstan's leading trade partners, allowed its currency, the ruble, to fall and this also put strains on the tenge. Kazakhstan's government fended off the pressure on the tenge by staging currency interventions.

But it became increasingly clear a second devaluation was inevitable, so it was not so surprising when the presidential election was moved forward from 2016 to April 2015. Many assumed Nazarbaev wanted to secure a fresh term in office before the full impact of economic difficulties hit the country.

In July, Kazakhstan's National Bank widened the trading corridor, allowing the tenge to slide a bit to as low as 198 to $1, but just a month later the anticipated second devaluation was implemented and the tenge fell to 255 to $1. Some Kazakh officials suggested the exchange rate would correct shortly and the tenge would strengthen. Instead it weakened and was 277 as of October 22. And now there is talk of a third devaluation being necessary.

Already Anar and her family have gone from making the equivalent of $650 to $350 a month. But since the government promised to hold down prices for basic goods, in theory the tenge's loss of value shouldn't have such a great impact on the ability to buy food using the national currency.

Suspicious Price Hikes

Azattyq spoke to merchants selling food and they all said their suppliers have raised the prices. According to these merchants, who requested their names not be used, before the second devaluation, sunflower oil was 300 tenge, now it costs about 440, rice went from 240 to 280, the average price of milk increased by 20 tenge, the price of sugar by 30 tenge.

One merchant who gave his first name, Gulsym, said, "We don't get milk from America. Sugar and rice we also produce ourselves in the country...I can't understand why these became more expensive."

On October 21, Adel Kaliev, a top official in the investigative department of Kazakhstan's antimonopoly agency, said the agency had also learned of suspicious hikes in prices for basic goods and would be hunting for violators.

Others in Kazakhstan are in a more desperate situation. They have recently lost their jobs as the country's enterprises lay off employees to cut costs.

Azattyq sent a request for information about job cuts to the Health and Social Development Ministry's Committee for Labor, Social Protection, and Migration. The committee provided some figures for the first nine months of 2015.Data showed that, in 381 businesses surveyed in Kazakhstan that employed more than 189,000 people, 5.8 percent of workers (11,039) were laid off. That is three times the number of workers laid off during the January-September period last year (3,663), according to the committee's figures.

And, of course, as President Nazarbaev just said, the real crisis is coming. At that same time he also told Prime Minister Karim Masimov that the government's Nurly Zhol (Bright Path) economic program included funds for retraining those out of work because of job cuts so they could find employment in other sectors.

No Vacancies

Almaty resident Gulbanu Orazalieva told Azattyq she had been working at a local bread factory for 10 years but was recently dismissed without any warning as the factory implemented cuts.

"If we had heard about the impending cuts a month ago, we would have started looking for other work," Orazalieva said. "I have four children, I have debt. How am I going to survive?" she asked.

Orazalieva said she could not even find work as a dishwasher at a cafe since those jobs were all going to younger women.

Bektur told Azattyq that he worked for 17 years at a local television station and even when he was laid off he was confident he would be able to find employment at another station.

"I have been [to all of the stations], and they tell me they are expecting to make cuts soon or don't have any vacancies. In the end I lost all hope that I would find a job in my field," Bektur said.

Timur Nazhanov, the chairman of the Almaty Independent Association of Entrepreneurs, said the country is already in an economic crisis. And he pointed to Russia as having contributed to Kazakhstan's economic woes.

"We are in the Eurasian Economic Union. That has complicated getting supplies of goods from Europe. Russia's goal is to defend its goods. Kazakhstan imports a large part of its goods. Russia increased the number of obstacles for imports to Kazakhstan…at the start of the year Russian goods arrived at a very low price, sales of products from our enterprises -- vehicles, agricultural goods -- weakened," Nazhanov explained.

And now, according to the president, the "real crisis" is about to hit.

Based on material from RFE/RL's Kazakh Service, with contributions from its reporter Yerzhan Karabek