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Qishloq Ovozi

Amid an uptick in fighting near the Amu-Darya River, Afghan-Tajik cross-border trade has been badly hit. Some days the frontier is even closed because the security situation is so bad. (file photo)

About 1,000 years ago, on the territory of modern-day Afghanistan, Mahmud, the ruler of the Ghaznavids, ordered his engineers to build a boat-bridge across the Amu-Darya River. Mahmud used the bridge to invade Transoxania, in what is now modern-day Central Asia.

For the last two years there has been fighting in northern Afghanistan, just across the Amu-Darya River. The situation has gradually grown worse. Central Asia is in no danger of being invaded, but the governments of bordering Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are concerned about the potential implications of Afghanistan's problems for their own security situations, even more so since some of their nationals are members of the militant groups in Afghanistan.

The breakdown in security in northern Afghanistan has coincided with a severe downturn in the economies of Central Asia, so the frustration is rapidly mounting in Ashgabat, Tashkent, and Dushanbe.

In the last week there has been plenty to worry about along the Afghan border.

RFE/RL's Uzbek Service, known locally as Ozodlik, and RFE/RL's Tajik Service, known locally as Ozodi, and RFE/RL's Turkmen Service, known locally as Azatlyk, have been closely following recent events along the Central Asian-Afghan border.

Since July 26, there has been fierce fighting in the Qoshtepa district of Afghanistan's Jowzjan Province, which borders Turkmenistan and is very close to the southwestern tip of Uzbekistan.

Jowzjan Governor Rahmatullah Azizi told RFE/RL's Uzbek Service there were some 500 militants involved in the attacks in Qoshtepa. Azizi said most of the militants were (Afghan) Taliban, but there were also Pakistanis and Uzbeks.

According to Azizi and Haji Ubaidullah, an Arbaky paramilitary commander in the Qoshtepa district, these Uzbeks are remnants of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). But that is no longer what they call themselves. These Uzbeks are from a new organization called the Termezi group. There appear to be only about 50 of them but they are playing leading roles among the militant groups in Jowzjan, acting as instructors and teaching how to build improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

From Bad To Alarming

The day after fighting started in Qoshtepa, Uzbek President Islam Karimov chaired a meeting of the country's Security Council. The topic was security along the southern border. There were subsequently unconfirmed reports that the order was given to strengthen forces along the Afghan border.

RFE/RL's Gandhara website reported recently about Uzbek security forces crossing into Afghanistan and taking Afghans back into Uzbekistan. The areas just south of Tajikistan are where the security problems began several years ago. The situation in northeastern Afghanistan since then has alternated between bad and alarming.

RFE/RL's Turkmen Service spoke with some locals in Afghanistan's Kunduz Province who live in villages along the Amu-Darya, across from Tajikistan but also very near Uzbekistan. They told RFE/RL's Turkmen Service there are militants sheltering on some of the islands in the Amu-Darya. They were sure, they said, because some of the militants regularly cross the river to Afghanistan to get food.

The city of Kunduz, the capital of Kunduz Province, briefly fell to Taliban and militant forces at the end of September 2015. There has been fighting around the city all this year and some local officials have voiced concerns that the militants could capture Kunduz city again.

Heavy fighting has also taken place in the Qala-i Zal district of Kunduz Province, which borders Tajikistan's Khatlon region.

Local Arbaky commander Muhammad Nabi Kechi said the "Taliban and foreign mercenaries" partially or fully controlled 45 of about 50 villages in Qala-i Zal district. He said they had not yet reached the Amu-Darya but they were close.

Further east, in the neighboring Dasht-i Archi district, there has also been fighting for weeks and militants now seem to control most of the district. That fighting has spilled over into the Hojagor district of the neighboring Takhar Province, which also borders Tajikistan's Khatlon region. The militants have already captured some villages in Hojagor.

Takhar Province Governor Muhammadyosin Ziyo told RFE/RL's Uzbek Service that Afghan government forces are preparing an operation against the militants to drive them out, but there have been no reports saying that operation has started. Information from RFE/RL correspondents in the area suggest there are not even any preparations being made for this security operation.

Wary Truck Drivers

As to claims that the Taliban has actually captured and occupied villages in these northeastern provinces of Afghanistan, it is worth mentioning that the Taliban has not claimed this in any statements.

Tajikistan has been strengthening its border with Afghanistan for several years with help from Russia, China, the United States, NATO, and the European Union. The border is far from being 100-percent sealed but Tajik forces are well positioned and provisioned to repel any attempted incursions.

The more immediate problem is that the fighting has shut down what had been growing cross-border trade between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, easily the most vibrant trade Afghanistan has with any Central Asian country. Some days the border is closed. In Tajikistan, there are a dwindling number of truck drivers willing to take the risk of making the trip into Afghanistan because of the breakdown in the security situation.

Similarly, Turkmenistan's plans to build a railway and a gas pipeline through Afghanistan have been stymied by the outbreak of fighting just across the border. Turkmenistan has also taken to increasing the guard and establishing new fortifications on its border with Afghanistan.

Trade with Central Asia was supposed to have helped Afghanistan recover economically and bring stability back to the country. Instead, the continued fighting in northern Afghanistan is forcing its Central Asian neighbors to further close themselves off.

Sirojiddin Tolibov from RFE/RL's Uzbek Service, Mirzo Salimov from RFE/RL's Tajik Service, and Toymyrat Bugaev and Shahmardanqul Muradi from RFE/RL's Turkmen Service helped in preparing this report.
Central Asia leaders have traditionally looked to Russia, but China has emerged as the economic driver of the region.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has welcomed the foreign ministers from the five Central Asian states -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan -- to Washington. Their meeting, dubbed the C5+1, follows up on the inaugural session of the group, which was held last year in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

With its involvement in Afghanistan winding down, the United States is attempting to restructure the relationship it has had with Central Asia for the last 15 years -- where for Washington, security had been the priority.

Washington is hoping to open new trade ties with Central Asia, a difficult task at a time when Central Asia's neighbor China has come to dominate the region economically during the last decade.

The United States is also seeking to reemphasize the need for the Central Asian governments to show greater respect for basic human rights and take more credible and visible steps toward establishing and developing democratic institutions. Washington was active in prodding Central Asian governments towards democratic reforms in the 1990s, but after the September 11, 2001, attacks its focus shifted to counterterrorism efforts in neighboring Afghanistan.

Some critics have said that the U.S. change in policy was unpopular with the governments and many people in Central Asia and changed the region's view of the United States.

While Kerry is likely to encourage the five foreign ministers to move toward greater regional integration and cooperation, the reality on the ground in Central Asia is the opposite. The five countries have been drifting further apart since they became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991.

That might mean Washington will choose to focus on its relationships with the individual countries.

Talking Democracy

For Western governments, including the United States, Kyrgyzstan still remains the great hope for democracy taking root in Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan is holding a presidential election next year and the incumbent, Almazbek Atambaev, has repeatedly said he will abide by the constitutional one-term limit and step down. Peaceful transitions of power and strict observance of constitutional term limits are something Washington would like all the Central Asian governments to embrace, so U.S. officials will likely hold lengthy discussions with Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Erlan Abdyldaev.

On the agenda might also be the case of Azimjon Askarov, an ethnic Uzbek rights activist and journalist jailed in the wake of interethnic riots in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010. The United States has criticized the jailing and the U.S. State Department gave Askarov its Human Rights Award in July 2015. That recognition immediately soured ties between the two countries, with Kyrgyzstan renouncing a 1993 cooperation agreement with the United States.

Separate meetings with Kazakh Foreign Minister Erlan Idrisov will likely focus on economic ties. The largest U.S. investment in Central Asia is Chevron's participation in Kazakhstan's massive Tengiz oil field. The TengizChevroil project in western Kazakhstan has provided a basis for U.S.-Kazakh ties for more than two decades.

However, Kazakhstan has regressed in recent years in its attempts to implement democratic reforms. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev has amended legislation to allow himself to remain president until he dies. Snap parliamentary elections earlier this year excluded any genuine opposition parties and reestablished a subservient parliament bound to do the bidding of the president. Nazarbaev just turned 76 at the start of July and has no apparent successor. Kazakhstan doesn't have a system designed to produce a second president genuinely chosen by the masses.

Individual meetings with the foreign ministers of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are likely to cover the same ground. All three states have entrenched presidents, repressive political systems, and all three are vulnerable to security threats emanating from their neighbor to the south, Afghanistan.

Afghan Insecurity

With Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, security will likely remain the focus, with their foreign ministers undoubtedly seeking guarantees that the United States will not withdraw from Afghanistan -- and leave the problem of Afghanistan's worsening security situation on their doorsteps.

For a while, Washington has been engaged in ongoing consultations with all three countries about the situation in Afghanistan and has provided military aid and infrastructure support, particularly to Uzbekistan, which in early 2015 received more than 300 mine-resistant ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles to help guard its frontier with Afghanistan.

Most likely, Washington will be seeking some indications that the three governments are open to moving forward on long-stalled political reforms. That might be a futile hope at this point, as all three countries are led by presidents who show no sign of ever leaving office and are resistant to altering their political systems to allow the inclusion of opposition voices.

Washington officials will likely discuss with Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov the Uzbek-U.S. car-making joint venture GM Uzbekistan, which has been mired in scandal after it emerged that the Uzbek management at the plant had allegedly embezzled millions of dollars. Those officials are in custody and facing trial in Uzbekistan but the incident will damper any enthusiasm from other U.S. companies to invest in Uzbekistan.

There is also the question of what to do with the approximately $800 million of Uzbek assets frozen by U.S. authorities, which Tashkent is attempting to get back. The frozen millions are connected to Gulnara Karimova, the eldest daughter of Uzbek President Islam Karimov. Karimova is under house arrest in Uzbekistan after a series of bribery and money-laundering scandals became public in several European countries.

With Russia still the major guarantor of security in Central Asia and China the dominant economic power, the United States is attempting to craft a role that includes security and trade, but crucially offers something those two great powers can't.

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About This Blog

Qishloq Ovozi is a blog by RFE/RL Central Asia specialist Bruce Pannier that aims to look at the events that are shaping Central Asia and its respective countries, connect some of the dots to shed light on why those processes are occurring, and identify the agents of change.

Bruce Pannier
Bruce Pannier

Content draws on the extensive knowledge and contacts of RFE/RL's Central Asian services but also allow scholars in the West, particularly younger scholars who will be tomorrow’s experts on the region, opportunities to share their views on the evolving situation at this Eurasian crossroad.

The name means "Village Voice" in Uzbek. But don't be fooled, Qishloq Ovozi is about all of Central Asia.



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