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Kyrgyz Prime Minister Sooronbai Jeenbekov has been nominated as the Social Democratic Party's candidate for president. (file photo)

Campaigning has not even started for Kyrgyzstan's presidential race, in fact the registration process for candidates is not even finished yet, but it already seems clear this is going to be a wild ride.

Two of the biggest parties in the country, one of them the president's former party, seem to be on the verge of splitting less than three months before polling stations open on October 15.

The number of people who have declared they wish to be candidates, as of the writing of this report, had reached 35 (RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service has a list here), though by election day most of these presidential hopefuls will certainly be long out of the race.

And although campaigning has not yet started, the specter of nationalism is already hanging over the presidential race.

One of the most unexpected twists of the presidential election so far is the seeming rifts in the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) and the Ata-Jurt party.

These two parties won the most seats in the 2010 and 2015 parliamentary elections, albeit in the 2015 election Ata-Jurt teamed up with the Respublika party in a union that has since broken up (though the Respublika-Ata-Jurt faction in parliament remains intact).

The SDPK was the party of current President Almazbek Atambaev, who was forced constitutionally to break ties with it after he was elected president in 2011.

Many people in Kyrgyzstan continue to identify the SDPK with President Atambaev, however, and it seems like Atambaev will return to the party after his term in office expires later this year.

'One Vacancy'

The SDPK officially forwarded Prime Minister Sooronbay Jeenbekov to be the party's candidate for president at the party congress on July 15 and Atambaev has clearly indicated that he backs Jeenbekov to be his successor.

The same day, the speaker of parliament, Chinibay Tursunbekov, who is also a member of the SDPK, announced he intended to run for president as an independent candidate.

Ata-Jurt has actually nominated two presidential candidates -- Kamchybek Tashiev and Ahmatbek Keldibekov -- both nominated by the party on July 18.

The move was a surprise to many in attendance at the party congress, among them well-known Kyrgyz politician Azimbek Beknazarov.

Azimbek Beknazarov
Azimbek Beknazarov

Beknazarov took the podium and questioned the nomination of two candidates.

Addressing Tashiev and Keldibekov, Beknazarov said: "There is only one vacancy for [the post of] the president, and you are two."

He repeated that sentence, adding that "you have to decide which of the two of you will run for president."

'Pure-Blood Kyrgyz'

Beknazarov seems not to have mentioned at that time that he had also declared his intention of running for president.

But what he said next has caused some commotion in Kyrgyzstan.

First Beknazarov extolled the virtues of the two Ata-Jurt candidates, noting they were "pure-blood Kyrgyz."

Then he said: "Kyrgyzstan is needed for the Kyrgyz people and the state is for the Kyrgyz people," adding that "we have to build a home of the Kyrgyz people."

Kyrgyzstan is home to more than 80 ethnic groups and unsurprisingly many in the country, including many ethnic Kyrgyz, objected to the remark, saying it incites interethnic hatred.

Beknazarov's comments have been referred to Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security for review and charges could be filed against the fiery politician.

Not that a legal battle would prevent Beknazarov from campaigning.

Kyrgyzstan's Central Election Commission has informed Keldibekov that he is ineligible to run in the presidential race because technically he still has a criminal record, something Qishloq Ovozi mentioned in an earlier post.

Two other people who have declared their intention to run for the presidency -- Ata-Meken leader Omurbek Tekebaev and former parliamentarian Sadyk Japarov -- are currently being detained while courts consider criminal charges against them.

And remember, campaigning has not even started yet, so stay tuned, there's plenty more excitement to come in Kyrgyzstan in the coming months.

Gulayim Ashakeeva of RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service contributed to this report.
The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL.
Plans to build hydropower plants along the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan have been around for decades. (file photo)

It has definitely been difficult for Kyrgyzstan to realize construction of the Upper Naryn Cascade hydropower project.

One complication after another has put the project on hold.

On July 10, information was posted on the Kyrgyz president's website that a Czech company had been found to construct at least part of the Naryn Cascade and several other smaller hydropower plants (HPP).

Celebrations were short-lived as, just a few days after the announcement, a scandal over the deal started in Kyrgyzstan and the Czech Republic that has become more confusing and aggravated with each day.

Since it is so confusing let's start with some information that is certain.

The plan for the Naryn Cascade project dates back to 1986, when Kyrgyzstan was a Soviet republic.

The project calls for the construction of four HPPs along the Naryn River, in the northern half of Kyrgyzstan, which flows westward eventually joining and providing badly needed refreshment to the Syr-Darya, one of Central Asia's two great rivers.

The four HPPs are – Akbulun with a planned capacity to generate some 87.4 megawatts (MW) of electricity, Naryn HPP-1 with a capacity of 47.7 MW, Naryn-2 with 47.6 MW, and Naryn-3 with 55 MW.

According to a Kyrgyz government presentation for investors in 2014, the total project should cost some $727.65 million.

The idea to construct the Naryn Cascade, and also the much larger Kambar-Ata-1 HPP (capacity 2,000 MW) along the Naryn River, came to nothing after the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991.

Lack Of Funds

Kyrgyzstan has never had the funds needed to construct the Upper Naryn Cascade or Kambar-Ata-1, the latter with an estimated cost of some $3 billion.

In 2003 and 2004, Kazakhstan showed some interest in helping construct the HPP projects along the Naryn River (and the Rogun and Sangtuda HPP projects in Tajikistan) but that faded.

In late 2004, Russia started talking about the Naryn River projects and Russian company RusHydro (also seen as RosGidro) became Kyrgyzstan's partner in the project in the Upper Naryn Cascade project.

Although work started on the Naryn River hydropower projects, Russian investors were less than enthusiastic about the chances of a return on their investment. (file photo)
Although work started on the Naryn River hydropower projects, Russian investors were less than enthusiastic about the chances of a return on their investment. (file photo)

In early 2009, then-President Kurmanbek Bakiev announced Russia was providing Kyrgyzstan with a $450-million loan and would later extend an additional $1.7 billion for construction of Kambar-Ata-1.

Unfortunately, Bakiev's son Maksim, then in his early 30s, had been put in charge of Kyrgyzstan's economy and chose to use some of Russia's initial $450-million loan to invest in other projects.

The Kremlin quickly discovered the scheme and launched a soft-power attack on Bakiev using Russian television, which is widely available in Kyrgyzstan, particularly in the north.

Negative coverage of Bakiev on Russian television played a role in Bakiev's ouster in April 2010.

Plans for Kambar-Ata-1 and as a result, the Upper Naryn Cascade project, were put on hold again.

But Russia was back in 2011 and the Naryn River HPP projects seemed ready to advance.

Work did start but neither RusHydro nor RAO UES, which was the Russian partner in the Kambar-Ata-1 project, were enthusiastic about working in Kyrgyzstan, where the chances of showing a profit on their large investments was unlikely for possibly decades to come.

Falling Oil Prices, Sanctions

When Russia's economy started to suffer from falling oil and natural-gas prices and international sanctions imposed against Russia in response to the Kremlin's role in fighting in eastern Ukraine, RusHydro and RAO UES essentially stopped working on Naryn River HPP projects.

Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev said at the end of 2015 that it was clear "our Russian friends would not be able to implement these projects" and, in January, Kyrgyzstan's parliament annulled the HPP agreements.

Again, the Upper Naryn Cascade project was suspended, and worse, Russia insisted that Kyrgyzstan owed $37 million for work that the Russian companies had done.

That brings us to July 10, and the announcement that Czech company Liglass Trading was prepared to pay the $37 million to Russia, effectively buying out RusHydro's shares in the Upper Naryn Cascade project, and build Akbulun and Naryn HPP-1.

Liglass's somewhat uninspiring premises in the Czech Republic.
Liglass's somewhat uninspiring premises in the Czech Republic.

The seemingly good news did not last long.

Already by July 14, the Czech news outlet reported on July 14 that Liglass was an "unknown company with little turnover."

The report said in 2014 that Liglass "had sales of only 345,000 crowns (about $15,000) and the loss of 1 million crowns."

Bankruptcy Claims

Later reports in Czech and Kyrgyz media would claim Liglass was bankrupt in 2016.

Kyrgyz website reported on July 17 that the Kyrgyz embassy in Austria had sought information about Liglass.

A March 10, 2017, letter from the embassy said that, despite claims on Liglass' website that it had implemented hydropower projects in Slovakia, Italy, Great Britain, and cooperated with China, "the Kyrgyz Republic's Embassy in Austria could not find any facts confirming the successful realization of [Liglass] investment projects abroad."

On July 18, Liglass representative Jiří Vojtěchovský offered assurances that the company was prepared to invest some $500 million in the Upper Naryn Cascade project.

On July 17, the Czech news-site posted a September 8, 2016, letter purportedly from Vratislav Mynar, the head of the office of the Czech president, which says Liglass had "successfully finalized the project of construction of solar and hydroelectric power plants" and "is well-established not only to our Czech but also in the European market…"

Some reports say banks are prepared to help Liglass with financing of the Kyrgyz HPP project, other reports say banks turned down or never received any requests for financial help from Liglass.

The Czech newspaper Hospodarske Noviny provided RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service with photographs of Liglass's main office in Železny Brod which do not inspire much confidence in the company's financial state.

The chairman of Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for Industry, Energy, and Exploration, Duyshenbek Zilaliev, said on July 17 that Liglass has 50 days to start fulfilling its financial obligations or the deal with the Czech company will be scrapped.

Zilaliev also called for an end to the hysteria that is already surrounding this deal.

Whatever the outcome of this latest development, it is another example that construction of the Upper Naryn Cascade project, which is an important project for Kyrgyzstan, seems fated to be accompanied by complications.

RFE/RL Kyrgyz Service Director Venera Djumataeva and freelance correspondent in Kyrgyzstan Ryskeldi Satke contributed to this report.
The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect the views of RFE/RL.

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About This Blog

Qishloq Ovozi is a blog by RFE/RL Central Asia specialist Bruce Pannier that aims to look at the events that are shaping Central Asia and its respective countries, connect some of the dots to shed light on why those processes are occurring, and identify the agents of change.

Bruce Pannier
Bruce Pannier

Content draws on the extensive knowledge and contacts of RFE/RL's Central Asian services but also allow scholars in the West, particularly younger scholars who will be tomorrow’s experts on the region, opportunities to share their views on the evolving situation at this Eurasian crossroad.

The name means "Village Voice" in Uzbek. But don't be fooled, Qishloq Ovozi is about all of Central Asia.



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