The luxury automobile of Iranian ex-President and current presidential hopeful Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is once again the focus of hard-line attention in connection with next month's vote.

As we reported last week, such websites recently posted compare-and-contrast-style images of Rafsanjani's bright blue Mercedes next to the Kia subcompact of another presidential hopeful, top nuclear negotiator Said Jalili, after the two registered almost simultaneously for the vote. Jalili's model, a Pride, is among the most common of cars in Iran and has a decidedly working-class image attached to it.

On May 17, hard-line cleric Ahmad Jannati, the chairman of the powerful Guardians Council that vets all election candidates, said without naming Rafsanjani that the country's next president should lead a simple life. He added that such a man (for female candidates appear to be excluded) shouldn't ride around in a Mercedes.

"He must lead a simple life. He should start with himself -- if his clothing is simple, his house is simple, his furniture is simple, he can expect others to have a simple life. In other words, he can't go around in a Mercedes, have such a house and furniture, and expect people to live modestly," Jannati said during his Friday Prayers sermon in the capital, Tehran.

He also said that the president should have management skills, fight corruption, and take a stand against "sedition," a term that hard-liners use to refer to the mass street protests against the reelection of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in 2009 and the resulting Green opposition movement.

Modesty is considered a virtue among Iranian leaders, who all claim to lead very simple lives.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also said that the country's president should be a man of the people who leads a modest life.

The Guardians Council is expected to announce the final list of approved presidential candidates on May 21. Council member Ayatollah Mohammad Momen has suggested that the body might approve more than 10 of the 686 individuals who registered to run in the June 14 vote.

The 78-year-old Rafsanjani has come under fire by hard-liners over his criticism of the 2009 postelection crackdown.

--Golnaz Esfandiari

Is Iran’s presidential hopeful Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf a hard-liner or a moderate? It depends on his audience, apparently.

Recordings of two starkly different accounts given by Qalibaf of his role in the crackdown against protests have emerged online.

One recording was allegedly made at a meeting Qalibaf is said to have held a few weeks ago with hard-line Basij students.

In it, Qalibaf, Tehran's mayor and a former Revolutionary Guards air force commander, appears to take credit for cracking down on Iran’s student movement. He says he personally beat up students with batons in the 1999 crackdown in Tehran and obtained permission from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to shoot at student protesters in 2003. The Basij forces in recent years have been accused of being actively involved in repressive measures against students.

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Yet, a few weeks later, in another meeting with students at Tehran’s Sharif University, Qalibaf had a very different account of the same 2003 event: He said he received the order to shoot at students but refused to do so.

Qalibaf's contradictory accounts appear to be part of an attempt to appeal to voters from different sides of the political spectrum as the June 14 presidential election approaches.

Burnish His Credentials

The 51-year-old Qalibaf is a member of the so-called Coalition of Three conservative presidential hopefuls loyal to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Analysts say that by highlighting his role in the crackdown, Qalibaf is seeking to burnish his conservative credentials and win the approval of Khamenei and his powerful hard-line allies, who are believed to be more inclined to support nuclear negotiator Said Jalili in next month’s vote.
In his meeting with Basij students, Qalibaf allegedly talks about the crackdowns in 1999 and 2003 and in 2009, after the last presidential election.

Of the 2003 student protests, Qalibaf, who was then national police chief, claimed that by making harsh statements and intimidating members of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, he managed to obtain permission to shoot at student protesters.  

“In that meeting, through my behavior, I was able to get permission from the country’s security council for the police forces to have a military presence at the university dorm and shoot [at protesters],” he said.

But speaking on May 13 to students at Sharif University, one of the centers of student activism, Qalibaf said others had issued the shooting order, while he had refused to enforce it.  

“I was the commander of the police forces during the events of 2003 that happened because of the anniversary of the 18 Tir incident (the 1999 student protests). Then, at a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council, the reformists issued an order that the police force which I headed had the right to shoot and enter the university dormitory. But I didn’t do that,” he says.

Confident Of Authenticity

The transcript of Qalibaf’s alleged comments with Basij students was first released by the opposition website Kalame after Qalibaf accused the reformist government of President Mohammad Khatami of having issued the order to attack students in 2003.

Kalame reported that Qalibaf’s meeting with Basij members was held privately. The meeting with Sharif University students was public.

The apparent audio of Qalibaf’s meeting with Basij students was later released online by several sources, including the U.S.-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran.

Hadi Ghaemi, the campaign's executive director, told RFE/RL that his group is confident about the authenticity of the audio recording.

Ghaemi says the recording exposes Qalibaf as a violent politician. His group has called on the European Union and the United States to add Qalibaf to their list of sanctioned human rights violators.

"I think for the past 12 years he’s been trying to give the image of a kind, moderate leader, but indeed he is one of the leading agents of repression in Iran," Ghaemi says. "What he refers to in that tape is very clear. He even claims there are photographs of him committing those acts in the streets, beating up protesters. He even refers to people who can [verify this]."

'Not A Single Bullet'

Qalibaf has been silent about the controversy. But his campaign spokesman Parviz Esmaili told the semiofficial Mehr news agency that during Qalibaf’s tenure as national police chief “not a single bullet” was fired on university campuses. He accused Iran’s enemies of conducting a psychological war in the run-up to the election.

The recording in which Qalibaf claims he had a key role in state repression has led to anger on social media. Some say he showed his true face, while other say he is merely trying to please Khamenei, who has the last say in all state affairs in the Islamic republic.

“Mr. Qalibaf, flattering Khamenei will not take you far. Look at Ahmadinejad," wrote one user on Facebook, in a reference to the current Iranian president who fell out of favor with the supreme leader.

Former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the country’s top nuclear negotiator Said Jalili are believed to be among the main contenders in the June 14 presidential election.

And there is increasing speculation that Jalili could be the establishment’s candidate to face Rafsanjani in the upcoming poll.

Long before the vote, hard-liners had begun campaigning for Jalili to run, while portraying him as a pious man. They have been presenting him as a devotee of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and as someone who leads a simple and modest life.

Rafsanjani, on the contrary, is considered to be one of Iran’s wealthiest men and has faced allegations of financial corruption.

This could be used by his opponents against him if he is allowed to run by the Guardians Council. 

In recent days, photos of the cars Rafsanjani and Jalili used on May 11 to come to the Interior Ministry to register for next month’s vote have been posted side by side on a number of hard-line, pro-establishment websites.

The photos appear to show Rafsanjani being driven to the registry office in a polished, dark blue Mercedes. Jalili came in a Kia Pride, which is the most common car in Iran.

A caption on one of the websites highlighted the disparity, inviting readers to spot “the difference between Said Jalili’s car and Hashemi Rafsanjani’s!"

-- Golnaz Esfandiari

The surprise decision by former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to enter Iran’s presidential race poses a challenge to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s plans to bring a loyalist to power, analysts say.

The June 14 vote, the first since the disputed 2009 reelection of Mahmud Ahmadinejad which led to mass protests, was expected to be mainly a competition between conservative politicians from Khamenei’s camp, the so-called "principlists."

But as New York-based Iranian journalist Roozbeh Mirebrahimi notes, by entering the race Rafsanjani -- who is at odds with Khamenei over his criticism of the 2009 postelection crackdown -- has disrupted the establishment's plans.

“[Rafsanjani’s candidacy] secures to a great extent Khamenei’s goal for a high participation," Mirebrahimi says, "but it creates problems for his plan to have a peaceful vote that would bring to power an obedient president. Rafsanjani’s decision brings back to the scene a large part of the forces that the establishment was trying to eliminate."

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Instead of competing against each other, analysts say, the Khamenei loyalists might now seek to unite behind one candidate in a bid to prevent Rafsanjani's return to the presidency.

Among the most prominent loyalists to Khamenei are Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf; former Foreign Minister and current Khamenei adviser Ali Akbar Velayati; former parliament speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel -- together known as the Coalition of Three; and Said Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator.

Second-Round Likely

Emad Hosseini, a former conservative lawmaker, was quoted by the Fararu website as saying that the result of the election will be decided by the candidate the principlists choose to support.

He suggested Qalibaf is a likely choice, saying, "The polls show that Qalibaf is ahead of others by a significant margin.”

Another conservative political observer, Hossein Kanani Moghadam, said that the vote is likely to go to a second round, which he speculated would be a runoff between Rafsanjani and Qalibaf.

“In the second round, Rafsanjani and a candidate from the principlists will compete against each other," Moghadam says. "I think Qalibaf is the only person who can get votes against Rafsanjani.”

However, Mirebrahimi believes that Jalili is likely to be the establishment’s final candidate.

“Before the registrations, I believed that Ali Akbar Velayati would be the favorite candidate of the leader's camp," he says. "But things changed after the last day of the registrations, including the fact that I don’t think Velayati can compete against Rafsanjani or be the representative of the movement against him because in 2005 he dropped out of the presidential race in favor of Rafsanjani, and for years he’s believed to have been close to him. Therefore, I think Velayati will leave the race. Khamenei’s camp is likely to reach a consensus on Said Jalili.”

'Positive Force'

Haddad Adel, one of the Coalition of Three, himself indicated as much on May 12 when he was quoted as saying that the group may support Jalili for the June vote.

Like Rafsanjani, Jalili registered for the race in the final minutes of the five-day registration period. Jalili, who is reportedly trusted by Khamenei, is criticized by some for a lack of experience in state affairs.

Former conservative lawmaker Hosseini described the 47-year-old Jalili as a “positive force” who has proved himself in the nuclear negotiations.

But he added: “His ability in the economic sector is unclear and we don’t see any work in the economic or cultural sector in his past record.”

But Mirebrahimi says if the establishment decides to throw its weight behind Jalili, then economic experience would not be a must.

“Ahmadinejad also didn’t have much experience when he came to power," Mirebrahimi says. "He was Tehran’s mayor and he was largely unknown. But he presented a current that Khamenei supported. Therefore, I don’t think it really matters in the Islamic republic who has the most experience. What matters is to what degree that person can enforce Khamenei’s orders. Currently, Jalili is the representative of Khamenei's [policy] of resistance in the nuclear issue.”

Approval By Guardians Council

To be sure, some analysts in the Iranian media have speculated that Rafsanjani’s main rival could be someone else entirely -- Ahmadinejad’s right-hand man, Esfandiari Rahim Mashaie.

Mashaie also surprised many by joining the race at the last minute. But given the hard-liners' dislike for him, some believe it is unlikely that he will be allowed to run.  

To make it to the final list of candidates, presidential hopefuls still need the approval of the Guardians Council.

The hard-line oversight body is due to announce its decision next week on the 686 individuals, including more than 30 public figures, who have registered to be presidential candidates.

Prominent Iranian union leader Mansur Osanlu, who recently fled that country, has told RFE/RL that death threats from inside government security circles drove him out of Iran.

Osanlu, who is described by some as “Iran’s Lech Walesa” after the labor leader who helped bring free trade unions and, ultimately, democracy to Poland, was speaking by phone from Turkey in one of his first media interviews since arriving there months ago.

He warned that the atmosphere in the Islamic republic is becoming more repressive “day by day.”

The president of the Syndicate of Workers of Tehran and Suburb Bus Company told RFE/RL that he had upset authorities recently because he had increased his organizing activities.

“We were trying to bring unity among various workers groups in order to reach a solidarity society or a workers federation, I had become very active in this since last year and It didn’t remain secret from [authorities] who would send me all kinds of messages and threats," Osanlu said. "They had told my two bailsmen who had secured my release from prison in 2011 that I should present myself at the prosecutor’s office or at the prison. All of these events in addition to the information I received that there were discussions to kill me, hit me with a car, or do some similar to the chain killings [of intellectuals] -- I was also told by friends that it wasn’t right for me to stay in Iran -- made me reach the conclusion [that I had to leave]."

Hadi Ghaemi, the spokesman for the U.S.-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, said he believes Osanlu will remain critical to the effort of bringing attention to the plight of Iranian workers, whose situation is reportedly worsening because of mismanagement of the economy and international sanctions over Iran’s controversial nuclear work.

“Mansur Osanlu is perhaps the most important labor activist to emerge in Iran over the past decade, and his ability to organize the bus drivers of Tehran -- and their consecutive activities -- was really a rejuvenation of the labor movement," Ghaemi said. "I believe he will continue to be a very articulate and important voice of Iranian workers."

Osanlu has paid a heavy price for his labor activities in Iran and for spearheading protests for better pay and conditions. Such protests are often met with harsh measures by authorities. He was detained a number of times, subjected to beatings, and spent some five years in jail on charges that included “acting against national security” and spreading “propaganda against the government.”

International organizations including Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the International Transport Workers' Federation called for his release and condemned the harsh treatment he received.

Osanlu said his interrogators subjected him to physical and psychological torture, including long periods in solitary confinement.

He said he learned about the campaigns for his release and calls for his freedom through relatives and other prisoners.

“The families who were visiting would tell us or prisoners who were transferred to court or to the hospital would hear such news and inform other prisoners upon return to prison," Osanlu said. "It was [important] for prisoners to find out that they were not forgotten -- these measures have an impact inside of Iran.”

He said he wants to continue his work from exile, which he acknowledges might be difficult. Other activists who have left Iran have struggled to remain relevant, and many are quickly forgotten.

Forcing activists into exile appears to be a strategic tactic by Tehran. In recent years, and especially since the bitterly disputed 2009 election and the ensuing crackdown, the regime has intensified pressure on many of those pushing for change.

Osanlu said he’s not discouraged.

"Being inside or outside the country is not a determining factor, I think," Osanlu said. "What is important is what conditions you’re facing and what possibilities you have and what price you’re ready to pay."

If Iran's supreme leader were to write a job description for the country's next president, loyalty and obedience to the Islamic establishment would be high on the list of requirements.

Iran observers are quick to point this out when considering the type of characteristics Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- the highest authority in Iran, whose influence will play a large role in determining whose names make the ballot -- is looking for as potential candidates officially register this week.

To this point the supreme leader has made scant mention of how the future president should fit into Iran's theocratic structure, however.

"Those who lead the executive branch should resist against our enemies' pressure," Khamenei was quoted as saying in an April 27 speech to workers. "They shouldn't be afraid and should not leave the scene quickly."

In a May 6 speech to election officials, Khamenei expanded on his desired candidate profile, saying the president should be a man of the people, a hard worker, and someone who is wise and strong.

His use of the word "principlist" -- a political camp that in general embodies the highly conservative views of the supreme leader and clerical bodies -- was the closest Khamenei came to revealing what side of the spectrum the ideal candidate should come from.

Analysts believe that Khamenei's desired candidate will be a hard-liner who shares Khamenei's deep commitment to revolutionary values as well as his anti-Western sentiments and deep distrust toward the United States.

They also see a need for a pragmatist capable of pulling the country out of an economic crisis spurred by crippling international sanctions and domestic mismanagement.

Is There A Mr. Right?

Khamenei has said on a number of occasions that the country needs to move toward a "resistive economy" to fight the sanctions and free itself from its dependency on oil revenues.

Ultimately, says Karim Sadjadpour, Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the supreme leader is looking for the best of both worlds: "a hand-kissing revolutionary ideologue who is a good manager and has popular support."

Finding that candidate could prove illusive, however. "I don't think there is any individual who checks off all of these boxes," says Sadjadpour, the author of an in-depth political profile of Iran's supreme leader.

Abbas Milani, the director of the Iranian studies program at Stanford University, concurs, saying that Khamenei is interested in conflicting traits that are difficult to find in one person.

"On the one hand he wants someone who is fully obedient -- like a facilitator or even less -- at the same time he believes that person should be able to solve people's economic problems and also carry some minor weight on the international scene," Milani says. "He wants to be the main figure himself."

A Relationship Gone Sour

Ironically, the perception in 2005 was that Khamenei had found a president he could get along with. The surprise winner of that year's presidential election, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, was widely believed to have come to power with the backing of the Iranian leader and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Likewise, Ahmadinejad's hotly disputed reelection in 2009 is also believed to have been sealed with Khamenei's approval.

Khamenei publicly acknowledged in 2009 that Ahmadinejad's views were closer to his than those of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was considered a pragmatist. Despite the emergence of cracks in their relationship, in 2010 Khamenei was said to have made comments that signaled his continued support for Ahmadinejad.



"In the current situation there are differences of opinion, and I don't agree with some issues," Khamenei was quoted as saying in 2010 by Hojatoleslam Eslamian, a member of the Society of Seminary Teachers. "But now when the supreme leader says something, the president accepts it and acts accordingly."

Of course, those comments came before the well-documented power struggle with Khamenei and his allies that led to Ahmadinejad's fall from grace.

The outgoing president's repeated attempts to carve out more influence for the executive office; his support for Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, a presidential aide who has been accused of trying to undermine Iran's powerful clergy and who is reputedly Ahmadinejad's preferred successor; and his confrontational style both at home and abroad have turned most of his former supporters against him.

ALSO READ: Rafsanjani Gets More Vocal On Iran's Policies, Presidential Run

In the end, Khamenei's former protege turned into a headache for the supreme leader, who appears to be doing his best to ensure Ahmadinejad's political influence ends with the completion of his second term in office.

The experience boosts expectations that Khamenei will take pains to ensure that the mistake is not repeated. In a March speech, he said the country's next president should have the strengths of the previous one, while staying away from his weaknesses. He has also said he prefers a president who won't create "problems" or offer "baseless promises."

As Iran comes under unprecedented international pressure, Khamenei more than ever needs unity within the establishment and an end to the internal rifts that have been exacerbated by the divisive Ahmadinejad.

Khamenei wields significant influence over the Guardians Council -- a body whose members are appointed by the supreme leader and comes up with the final list of presidential candidates -- and on Iran's Central Election Board, which oversees the elections.

An Electorate Of One

Considering this reality, it appears likely that the next president will be chosen from an array of politicians close to Khamenei's camp.

Any candidates seen as close to Ahmadinejad, including Mashaei, have virtually no chance with Khamenei. It can also be expected that no reformist candidates will receive the backing of the supreme leader, who has managed to effectively eliminate the reformist faction from the political scene.

Even among conservative figures known for their loyalty to the establishment, only those whom Khamenei feels he can fully trust will have a chance, according to Mehdi Khalaji, an Iran expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who is working on a biography of the supreme leader. "Khamenei wants to make sure that they lack personal and factional ambition, he wants to make sure that they will act as his manager and as the executor of his orders," he says.

Sadjadpour says it will be interesting to see whether presidential hopefuls focus primarily on attracting Khamenei's vote, or the popular vote. "The slogans you would use to please a 73-year-old revolutionary ideologue are very different from the slogans you'd use to appeal to a predominantly young and modern electorate," he notes.

When Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad delivered a speech at a highly anticipated government rally last month, Tehran's Azadi Stadium was nearly empty.

At least that's how it appeared in footage aired by Iran's state-controlled television.

If one were to judge by a video posted on Ahmadinejad's website, however, they would get a much different picture. That video shows a stadium with a capacity of 100,000 more than half full. Some moderate websites and news agencies estimated that between 60,000 and 70,000 attended the gathering.

The discrepancy highlights the battle for influence that is being waged in the Iranian media ahead of the country's June 14 presidential election.

Scores of politicians will officially file their names as candidates this week, with the preliminary registration process taking place from May 7-11. From the initial list the number of names is expected to be whittled down to a select few by the Guardians Council, which has the final say in approving candidates.

As candidates prepare to try their luck in the political game, the media environment has already turned foul, pitting the combative outgoing Ahmadinejad against powerful rivals close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

'Deviant Current'

Reports in some state-controlled media show Ahmadinejad in an unflattering light, depicting the president as grooming a handpicked successor -- his right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei -- in an attempt to maintain influence. Under Iran's constitution, Ahmadinejad cannot run for a third consecutive term.

Iranian media have been always closely connected to politics, with each political faction controlling several outlets.

The state broadcast is under the direct control of Khamenei and his allies, as is the ultra-hard-line daily "Kayhan," which is said to be the mouthpiece of the supreme leader. Ahmadinejad and his government control the state news agency IRNA, the daily "Iran," and a number of websites and blogs. Other factions and centers of power, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), have their own media outlets.

Ahead of the June 14 vote, media on one side have taken to describing Ahmadinejad and members of his close circle as the "deviant current." Ahmadinejad, through his outlets, has spread warnings about official electioneering and has made thinly veiled threats to leak damaging files about Iranian authorities.

A report aired by state television in March provides a window into the concerns Ahmadinejad's rivals have about him influencing the presidential race, even if they don't mention him by name.

"Some are not candidates themselves. According to the law, they cannot run in this term. It is said that they have plans for the elections," the announcer says. "This group has a main candidate and several secondary ones. If the main candidate is disqualified, the group will create a [crisis]."

Coverage Meant To Embarrass

State television, watched by millions of Iranians, has become the main platform for attacks against the president. In recent weeks, it has aired talk shows attended by critics of the president who have blasted his economic policies and accused him of mismanagement. Coverage of recent trips Ahmadinejad has made to Iran's provinces, which are believed to be part of his strategy to promote Mashaei, are also clearly aimed at embarrassing him.

Manuchehr Honarmand, editor in chief of the Iran-related video portal Lenziran, follows Iran's state broadcasts closely. He says the tide has clearly turned against Ahmadinejad, a former Khamenei protege who fell out of favor due to a power struggle with the supreme leader.

"First of all, [state TV] doesn't have live coverage of Ahmadinejad's trips to the provinces anymore, and it airs footage [of Ahmadinejad events] that shows empty stadiums and squares," Honarmand says. "Ahmadinejad's team has retaliated by posting videos of the speeches he gives during his provincial trips on his website."

On April 28, state television was accused in reports by IRNA of "childish" behavior and biased coverage aimed at preventing citizens from welcoming Ahmadinejad to their provinces and attending his events.

"Unfortunately, the state broadcast of the province dismissed the dense crowd that had come to Imam's Square to welcome the president," Isfahan Governor Zaker Esfahani was quoted as saying by IRNA. "It showed the empty spaces around the square."

All Criticism Permissible

Aside from state media, websites close to some of Ahmadinejad's opponents have joined in the apparent effort to discredit the president by posting pictures of poorly attended speeches, conducting interviews with his critics, and reporting polls that show dissatisfaction with his policies.

The opposition Kalame website, addressing the question of who might be behind the alleged effort, reported on April 25 that the Intelligence Ministry told the country's media that any amount of criticism against Ahmadinejad ahead of the June vote was permissible.

The website Baztab, which is said to be close to former IRGC commander and presidential candidate Mohsen Rezai, last week posted a report based on rumors that Ahmadinejad is in possession of an audiotape that reveals fraud in the 2009 vote.

The report said the audiotape documents a telephone conversation between Ahmadinejad and top officials in which the president is told that he actually won far fewer votes than the official results showed.

The president's office has called the report baseless, while Baztab's editor in chief later said the report had taken the government by surprise and "neutralized" its plans for the upcoming vote.

Germany-based Behnam Gholipour, chief editor of the Digarban website that monitors Iran's hard-line media, says the media battle is likely to become even more heated. He says it could result in the publication of some information that might not otherwise become public.

"Until not long ago, the atmosphere was not right for the criticism of the government because Ahmadinejad and his government had the support of the establishment, and the hands of his conservative critics were tied," Gholipour says. "But the current atmosphere allows them to criticize his performance and make public some of the realities of [his presidency]."