Friday, May 25, 2012


The Power Vertical

Dancing In The Streets?

Rocker Yury Shevchuk gives an earful to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at a charity event in May.
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Word emerged this week that the Moscow city authorities have OKed a concert on downtown Pushkin Square in support of the activists and citizens who are protesting against the destruction of the Khimki forest. The August 22 concert is expected to include headliners such as DDT (whose front man, Yury Shevchuk, has been much in the news lately with his aggressive pronouncements against the Kremlin; at a concert in March, Shevchuk slammed Russia’s “brutal, cruel, and inhumane” system), Televizor, Barto, and others. It will be hosted by outspoken journalist Artyom Troitsky and could possibly include the red-hot rapper Noize MC.


It was nothing less than jaw-dropping news. Why would the authorities give their blessing to allow thousands -- possibly tens of thousands -- of young people to gather in the center of the city for such a politically charged event? After all, until now they have been almost comically afraid to allow even handfuls of people to demonstrate in Moscow. This video shows scores of police deployed to prevent one elderly man from entering a downtown square and then bodily hauling him off after he does.


It should be noted, of course, that Moscow gives and Moscow takes away. There is a lot of time between now and August 22, so don’t be surprised if the authorities suddenly discover that Nashi has already booked the square for a tag sale to raise money to buy copies of Vladislav Surkov’s latest book for victims of the recent fires.


On top of this came the news today that Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov has returned to his vacation, which was rudely interrupted by the fact that no one in the capital could breathe. If the concert gets out of hand while Luzhkov is off having his tennis elbow looked at, it is hard to imagine how he’ll hang on to his job. Of course, being out of town can provide plausible deniability if the plan is for some sort of crackdown or violent provocation.


So, the $64,000 question is: Why?


We have ruled out the possibility that the authorities are counting on the veracity of this report from Emmy-nominated RT television asserting that “Earth’s natural resources will run out in four days.” That is, on August 21, one day before the concert, life on earth will come to a grinding halt and the Kremlin’s problem will be solved. “We wanted to allow the concert,” a concerned spokesman will intone, “but the lack of water and oxygen and energy on the planet simply makes this impossible.”


Or are the authorities counting on the event going off smoothly and therefore being a demonstration that Moscow supports democracy and civil society? Could the authorities be counting on Troitsky, who although a liberal, remains a mainstream cultural figure who has been moderate in his criticisms of the authorities, to keep a lid on things?


Or are the Moscow authorities simply in such disarray over the seemingly inevitable removal of Luzhkov (and are some of them bent on accelerating that process?) that they don’t know what they are doing? That seems unlikely, since as recently as the attempted demonstrations on August 12 and 15, they seemed to know just fine.


Or is it part of the conflict between Luzhkov and Moscow Oblast Governor Boris Gromov? Could the municipal authorities be thinking the event will remain focused on the Khimki confrontation and will make the oblast authorities look bad?


All this seems unlikely. In its August 16 press release announcing the concert, the opposition Solidarity movement seemed pretty open about their intention to expand the political dimension of this event. “The demonstration/concert on August 22 is not just an action of solidarity with the defenders of the Khimki forest, but part of a broad civic campaign against bureaucratic and police arbitrariness.”


“The action of August 22 is intended to demonstrate that civil society in Russia has developed to the point where it can, when necessary, mobilize itself to defend its constitutionally guaranteed rights, including the right to clean air,” the press release concludes.

Televizor leader Mikhail Borzykin similarly told RFE/RL's Russian Service that the Khimki situation "has become a symbol of survival in Russia, of the struggle againnst the cutting down not only of a forest, but oall all that is best in the residents of Russia, of all that is human. It has become a metaphor." He characterized the actions of police as "extremist" and as "terrorism practiced across Russia and directed at its own citizens."


So? What do you think? Have the authorities lost their minds? Are they playing a cynical game? Have they suddenly become defenders of the public’s right to assembly freely?


Your guess is as good as mine – we’d love to hear what you think. See comment box below...


-- Robert Coalson

Tags: culture , Khimki protests

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Myron from: Wisconsin, USA
August 18, 2010 15:45
My guess is that the authorities approved this and will let it get out of hand and understaff the police. After the concert gets out of hand and rowdy, they will attempt to break it up, all while blaming Luzkhov for not keeping the peace in his own city, esp while there are fires raging in the countryside. The authorities felt it was a peaceful good concert and Luzkhov let it turn into a mess. This will then be one of the reasons they use to oust Luzkhov when the time is right.
In Response

by: Nina Ivanovna from: Washington DC
August 18, 2010 20:43
I like that idea. Ousting Luzhkov is much more problematic to the regime than Boos, or even Rakhimov. A case has to be built against Luzhkov in order to prove that he is incapable of governing any longer. The 2 vacations during the wildfires, plus this protest, plus the cases against his deputies, all seem to be part of this case. But I'm not sure it is enough to provoke an ouster. For whatever reason, Luzhkov is still too powerful to remove without some serious consequences for the regime.

As for this protest specifically, it seems more than likely that it is a cynical attempt to prove that the regime are open to alternative points of view, and not afraid of opposition and protests, as long as they are controlled by the regime.

by: Catherine from: Washington, DC
August 18, 2010 19:32
It's August. Something always happens in August.

by: Ray F. from: Lawrence, KS
August 18, 2010 19:59
I have a friend who once went to the doctor, complaining that he could barely walk. Just prior to his appointment, this friend spoke to me of his fears that maybe he had bone cancer or some other debilitating illness. As it turned out, all he had was a hangnail, that the doctor cut off in about 5 seconds. Robert, I think maybe you are over-analyzing this event. One concert does not equal a revolution or the end of the world (or the Putin/Luzhkov forms of government). My guess is that most young Russians will be soaking up the sun, suds, and good vibes. Hopefully, they will return home with a smile and perhaps a more genuine concern for the environment.

by: Robert from: Prague
August 19, 2010 07:47
Thanks all for your comments. While I agree that the concert could be very risky for Luzhkov, it should be remembered that it is the Moscow city government that has given approval for this demonstration/concert. It is always possible, of course, that the central government influenced that decision behind the scenes...

Roland Oliphant ties the concert approval to the Luzhkov/Gromov dispute in this blog post: http://www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?pageid=Politics&articleid=a1282068791 He thinks Luzhkov actually supports the Khimki protesters.

Ray, I'm glad to hear that your friend was OK. But this concert, if it happens, is a radical departure from the Moscow and Russian governments' policies. It is the first time that a major gathering of anyone other than Kremlin-controlled groups has been allowed to take place in Moscow for many years. I definitely think it is worth speculating why.
In Response

by: Ray F. from: Lawrence, KS
August 19, 2010 16:08
Robert, Hi and thanks for the reply. I enjoy your speculations, but sometimes wonder if you have not become infected with that cynicism which you so often attribute to Russia's leaders. Believe it or not, some of them may actually want to improve the lives of the Russian people.

Did you listen to Mr. Ostrovsky's (The Economist) latest comments on Echo Moscow?
http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/704020-echo/comments.html#comments

Like you, he sees the current system as moving toward a dead-end, but does not recognize any would-be Gorbachev reformer within the Kremlin ranks or in the near political vicinity. Evolution might be the better model. I sense that most Russians like Putin and prefer the status quo to another revolution. Given our recent experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, wouldn't you agree that the stability of a minimum-security prison is preferable to a madhouse? Speculation is good; provocation, however, can be dangerous.
In Response

by: Ivan Ivanovich from: Old Russia
August 20, 2010 06:13
Ray, I think you give to much credit to Russian leaders. The notion of "common good" is virtually non-existent in Russia. More and more intelligent people are beginning to realize that some sort of violent eruption is inevitable (I say Amen to that!). Your Western genetically inherent tendency to appease tyrants combined with political correctness niceties have already caused irreversible damage ( q.v WW2 and the Muslim occupation of Europe with the rest of Western civilizations waiting in line). So don't tell us what Russians "prefer"!

The concert is canceled! What a surprise! I Hope it won't interfere with your idyllic hallucinations!



In Response

by: Ray F. from: Lawrence, KS
August 20, 2010 15:12
Ivan, Hi and thanks for your thoughts. You might be right, and Russia again will descend into violet madness. For the sake of the Russian people, however, I hope you are wrong. Given what the US did in former Yugoslavia and Iraq, I don't think that our government can be charged with 'appeasing tyrants.' The point I was trying to make to Robert was twofold: 1. The US does not enjoy any sort of heavenly mandate to police the planet and spread the 'American dream.' We can't afford it, and guess what, our political leaders are nearly as fallible and prone to corruption as yours. We merely have a better system of checks and balances. 2. In the debate between freedom and security, I suspect that most humans would prefer the latter. If you are afraid to leave your home because of roadside bombs and snipers, what good is the freedom of assembly (i.e. at an outdoor concert)? Not sure what your snide Muslim remark refers to, but my understanding is that Islam, like most other religions, is one of peace.
In Response

by: Ivan Ivanovich from: Old Russia
August 20, 2010 20:30
Ray, I didn't notice that you were American so you can disregard what I said about Europe and Muslims (although it may apply to U.S in the near future).

If the U.S revokes its mandate to "police" the world you gonna witness some serious wars between states and not just between rag tag terrorists.

As regards corruption, its everywhere, but in U.S you can't tip off cops to leave you alone, lecturers to give you good grades, state officials if you want to open your own business not to mention the mob and this list is endless, one really should live here for a while to comprehend the scale of it, and the most horrific thing is that it's considered NORMAL.

As for the debate of freedom vs. security, are there any snipers now in the streets of NY or LA the cities of the freest of country on earth? NO. Are there any in Pyongyang the capital of the most cruel tyranny? NO. This whole security myth designed to turn the masses attention away from domestic issues and it's very successful in doing so.

Lastly, apparently your understanding of Islam is lacking, Religion of peace? That's nice propaganda but not the reality, tell me this: when you here about terrorist attacks anywhere in the world, what do think? WHO did this? We both know the answer but you are shackled by post-modern conventions and afraid to voice your opinion.

To conclude, your line of thought has lost it's legitimacy in the reality of the 21st century, the problems are mounting but if we follow your way the solutions will never come.
In Response

by: Ray F. from: Lawrence, KS
August 21, 2010 12:50
Ivan, Hi and thanks again for your thoughts. As my eldest son just returned from our glorious mission in Afghanistan (where he saw some of his best friends wounded or killed), I'm of the opinion that this country can simply no longer afford to play the role of global cop. If states want to fight among themselves, let 'em go for it. Don't want to sound callous, but this might be a solution to the problem of excess population, and certainly not worth the life of one American soldier.

You are right, corruption in Russia is endemic and will likely have to be 'institutionalized' to be cured. Also agree that all politicians use 'fear' for domestic purposes. Snipers may be in short supply, but there is a latent fear of criminality in most large US cities after dark. This country is not quite as 'free' as foreigners might believe.

I'm not a theologian and know very little about religion, particularly Islam. From my reading of history, however, all religions have occasionally provided the pretext to kill one's neighbor and steal his property. Cynical politicians/theocrats use/abuse religion for their selfish ends. Makes me sick to recall presidents like George W. Bush proclaiming "God bless America."

I don't claim to have any formula for solving the problems of this world or bringing world peace. This world has always been a vale of tears and will remain so. Man's fundamental, fallible nature remains unchanged. I fear, however, that using 'your line of thought' (pinning blame on one brand of religion) we will not make it to the 22d century.

by: Robert from: Prague
August 19, 2010 14:12
Well, as might have been (and was!) predicted, the Moscow authorities have now said they won't allow the concert: See RFE/RL's Russian Service coverage here: http://www.svobodanews.ru/content/article/2132261.html

by: Kathrine Berntsen from: Oslo
August 24, 2010 08:10
Just a short remark to your comment Ivan Ivanovich about ones initial reaction to terrorist attacks:

EUROPOL (the European Union's criminal intelligence agency) recently released their "Terrorism Situation and Trend Report" which concludes that only 0.4% of terrorist attacks (including failed attacks and successful ones) in Europe between 2007 and 2009 could be attributed to islamists (report available at http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TE-SAT/TESAT2009.pdf).

Another study released by Duke University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill earlier this year concludes that only 6% of the terrorist attacks on U.S soil from 1980 to 2005 were commited by muslims - comparatively, 7% by jews and 42% by latinos (http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/01/06/muslim.radicalization.study/).

Best regards from Oslo

About This Blog

The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It covers emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or

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