Saturday, May 26, 2012


The Power Vertical

The Fire This Time?

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin taking part in fighting wildfires in Ryazan Region aboard a BE 200 amphibious aircraft.
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It was pokazukha on steroids.

In one of his trademark stunts, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin climbed into the cockpit of a firefighting plane and helped the crew dump water on wildfires plaguing western Russia. 

"Is it ok?" he asked after pushing a button to release the water as the television cameras rolled.

"It was a direct hit," the pilot responded.

The same cannot be said for the government's overall response to the ongoing crisis. After reacting slowly to the raging fires, Putin and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have been going to great lengths to show that they are on the case and the situation is under control.

Last week, Russian television broadcast a telephone conversation between Medvedev, sitting in his Kremlin office, and Putin, in shirtsleeves on the scene of forest fires in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, discussing which measures need to be taken.

Putin and Co. have been pulling pr stunts like this for so long that it must be like second nature to them. But all the carefully stage crafted set pieces in the world cannot obscure the fact that the Kremlin was caught flat footed by the fires of August.

A more telling video, that did not make its way on to state-controlled television (but which has been burning up the Internet) shows Putin being accosted by furious residents of from Verkhnyaya Vereya, a village destroyed by the fires.

As Nikolai Petrov, a political analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Center points out in today's "Moscow Times," the authoritarian top-down administrative system Putin has built over the past decade is ill equipped to handle emergencies that require a fast and nimble response:

What lessons can Russia learn from this summer’s fires and the government’s reactions to them? First, the country needs to improve techniques for putting out fires. Second, it needs to re-examine the Forest Code and whether the number of firefighters is sufficient for a country that has the world’s largest forest reserves. Third and most important, it needs to address the problem of the country’s overly centralized and highly ineffective government institutions.

But it goes even deeper than that.

As RFE/RL correspondents Anastasia Kirilenko and Daisy Sindelar show in a recent story, Putin's decision in 2007 to gut the Forestry Service -- slashing the number of rangers and increasing the number of bureaucrats -- left the authorities woefully ill equipped to deal with the fires.

The 2007 Forestry Code, which Putin signed into law as president and which critics say heavily favors the timber industry, also took responsibility for protecting Russia's forests away from the federal authorities and gave it to ill-prepared regional and local governments. The code was supported by the timber industry and real estate developers, but was reviled by environmentalists.

The results of that policy are now laid bare for all the world to see.

A series of public opinion polls conducted in July and released this week showed that even before the fires, both Medvedev and Putin were losing standing with the public. Medvedev's rating, for example, has dropped by as many as 10 percentage points since the start of the year, while Putin's has fallen by up to 6 percentage points. Analysts say both can expect to lose more popularity as a result of the fires.

Sometimes a crisis like this is cathartic, sparking and focusing the kind of public outrage that forces a government to rethink its policies and priorities. But then again, sometimes it isn't.

-- Brian Whitmore

Tags: Vladimir Putin , medvedev , Russia

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Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Ray F. from: Lawrence, KS
August 11, 2010 16:31
I relayed this story to one of my common-sense friends in Russia, hinting to him that I thought this was the most grotesque form of political theater, and that Putin appeared to be 'using' this fire to gain electoral support. He wrote back that most Russians look upon Putin as a normal guy (muzhik) who is trying his best to manage this huge country. He went on to say that it has been only 20 years since his country was released from slavery, and that for 100 years prior to this, the country was ruled poorly. He understands that Putin may be trying to gather political points, but give him a break. Without even this flawed vigorous leadership, the situation could be far worse. Granted, VVP has made some mistakes, but in his defense, at least he's not vacationing in France.
In Response

by: Anonymous from: USA
August 11, 2010 20:04
Ray-
Doesn't sound to me like your friend has any common sense at all. As for VVP's "flawed vigorous leadership" you are correct, the situation could be worse. But Putin's growing authoritarian power is not setting up the country for a democratic transition to a new ruler. Eventually, VVP will die and the next ruler to take his place could threaten the entire world or tear Russia to pieces. Czarist Russia has had unstable rulers before, it is not impossible that another could surface in the 21th century. The backstabbing, scapegoating, no-rule-of-law, live-for-today performance of the current clan-based Russian government makes me think that Russia may not exist 50 years from now (at least not in its current form).
In Response

by: BS Buster
August 12, 2010 14:16
This kind of wishful thinking of Russia haters thru the generations has fallen short.

In Response

by: Anonymous from: USA
August 13, 2010 01:21
Wishful? Hateful? BS, when in my statement did I mention either of these? It is a FACT that others in the Russian government get blamed for the Kremlin's policy errors. I fail to understand how anyone can be loyal under those circumstances. In fact, traitors are often produced when people become disloyal. There are some excellent examples of this happening during the Soviet Era. Also, it is no secret that different clans are battling for power in the Russian government. Putin is the only one who keeps them from killing each other, so if he died tommorrow, the "Violent '90's" would probably return.
In Response

by: BS Buster
August 13, 2010 10:13
Not exclusively a Russian or even Soviet trait.

Fire the manager in baseball over other issues is one of many examples that include aspects of corpporate American and American government.
In Response

by: Anonymous from: USA
August 13, 2010 20:10
No, not exclusively Russian or Soviet, but in the US there is what's called "wrongful termination" that allows a person to sue their employer (business or government) for being unfairly fired. there is also protection for whistleblowers like the woman who brought down Enron...completely non-existent in modern Russia. If Russians complain loudly about corporate or government corruption, they can expect to be harrassed or intimidated into silence. It happens almost every week....
In Response

by: BS Buster
August 14, 2010 12:53
Among other sources, a Russian based attorney I know says that on matters like suing a business (small claims), the situation has improved.

Rather than write off the crackdown on oligarchs as "suppression," some good has come out of it in terms of a greater corporate responsibility.

As for the selectivity of the crackdown, there's a global human relations factor involved, having to do with how the SOB who is against you becomes more of a sore spot and target for justice than the **** who doesn't bother you.

In Response

by: Anonymous from: USA
August 14, 2010 19:51
Greater corporate responsibility? I'd be interested to know where you got such an idea, since Russia is one of the most corrupt, least transparent countries in the entire world. I was astounded to read a PriceWaterhouseCoopers report from January 2010 about the pitfalls of doing business in Russia with no rule-of-law and lack of property rights. Transparency International doesn't rank Russia very high in its list of transparent nations (it's near the bottom). The selectivity of the crackdown on oligarchs is politically motivated, plain and simple. Those who are allied to Putin are allowed do business in Russia, those are are not face jail or exile. All the oligarchs are criminals, so they should all face jail, not just the ones Putin doesn't like.
In Response

by: BS Buster
August 15, 2010 09:52
There has been some heady second guessing on some of TI's claims. Are you familiar with any of them?

Given what Russia was like during Communism and the 1990s chaos it experienced, I don't expect that country to be on par with nations considered as the leading capitalist democracies over an extended period.

I think that Russians at large are understandably hesitant about policies like the proposed "shock therapy" of the 1990s and Stalin's idea of a brutally enforced rapid implementation of economic advancement


by: Senjo
August 12, 2010 02:14
This is what politicians DO. They engage in senseless PR stunts to show the people they care, then act in the interets of their financial supporters. It's the same everywhere. If Obama could have boarded a submersible to cap the spill, you can be sure he would have done so.

by: Jay Banks from: Vancouver, CA
August 12, 2010 12:55
Every critical situations need to be held with a vigorous leadership. I understand that the dimension of this ecological (and economical) disastrous is getting far behind anything comparable to that. Putin knows his influence on common people and he is probably just trying to save what has left – devastated nature and distressed people. I guess this is going to be more then a political matter.

About This Blog

The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It covers emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or

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