Monday, September 22, 2014


Caucasus Report

Abkhazia Heads Into A Turbulent Summer

Demonstrators on May 27 storm the building where the de facto president of Abkhazia, Georgia's breakaway republic, is office is located in Sukhumi.
Demonstrators on May 27 storm the building where the de facto president of Abkhazia, Georgia's breakaway republic, is office is located in Sukhumi.
The June 1 resignation of Aleksandr Ankvab as de facto president of Georgia’s breakaway Republic of Abkhazia has resolved one major domestic political standoff. But there is little likelihood that the run-up to the preterm presidential ballot scheduled for August 24 will be smooth, and its outcome is currently impossible to predict.
 
One of the demands put to Ankvab in late April by the Coordinating Council of 11 opposition parties established last year was the passage of constitutional amendments that would transfer to the parliament and prime minister some of the powers currently invested in the president. This is now impossible, however, because the acting president is not empowered by the Abkhaz Constitution to initiate such amendments.  It will therefore be up to whoever wins the August ballot to initiate those amendments, after which he risks playing second fiddle to whichever of his supporters he has appointed as prime minister.
 
That constitutional conundrum may partly explain why none of Abkhazia’s most influential political figures has yet expressed the intention of putting forward his presidential candidacy. Ankvab’s longtime rival, Forum of National Unity of Abkhazia Chairman Raul Khajimba, who played a leading role in the events of the past week that culminated in Ankvab’s resignation, has said that at present he has no intention of running. Khajimba placed second to incumbent Sergei Bagapsh in the December 2009 presidential ballot and third in the August 2011 election necessitated by Bagapsh’s untimely death in May 2011. On the first occasion, he garnered 15.4 percent of the vote; on the second, 19.83 percent.
 
Valery Bganba, the agronomist and former parliament speaker whom lawmakers chose on May 31 as acting president, has similarly made clear he will not run. Bganba placed last of five candidates in the December 2009 presidential ballot with just 1.5 percent of the vote.
 
Other possible candidates are former longtime Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba, who served during Bagapsh’s second term as premier and who placed a distant second to Ankvab in the August 2011 ballot; wealthy businessman Beslan Butba, who heads the Party of Economic Development of Abkhazia; and Vitaly Gabnia, chairman of the organization Aruaa representing veterans of the 1992-93 war that ended in Georgia's loss of control over Abkhazia.
 
The second potentially destabilizing factor is tactical disagreements within the opposition as a whole, which brings together "young idealists and bureaucrats from the previous government," and specifically the 21-member Provisional Council of Popular Trust set up last week and headed by Khajimba. Writing for the website kavpolit.com, Anton Krivenyuk does not rule out the emergence within the Coordinating Council of new rival power groupings.

-- Liz Fuller
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Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Konstantin from: Los Angeles
June 03, 2014 10:48
Orhan Gemal answered "why" in his interview, but it is a twisted versus of Russian blackmail, pinning on Ukraine and Georgia "move to the West (Betraying Russia)" as reason for Russian expansion and use of secret USSR armies of GRU-Spetcnaz for "USSR security".
Meliton Kantaria didn't move to the West, Gemal - your stinky Russia did genocide and annexing Abkhazia.
Ukraine didn't move to the West, but, being squeezed by Russia to kneel, protested - Russia answered with sniper fire and invaded - to repopulate Ukraine, as they trying for three Centuries anywhere.
________________________________________
Gemal is wrong - it is Russia that always doing first aggressions and bandit squeezes.
Russia force "Custom Union Iron Curtain" of total repossession of land, property and people of nations by "giving it under ownership of Moscow Custom Union government" - to make them slaves of Russian pomesh'iks and breed Russian Tyranny.
It is why Ukraine went to Maidan.
It is why Georgia asked for help.
It is why both seek free trade with EU and Russia.
It is why Russia lie and respond by more bullets and expediting cleansing of Ukraine and Georgia, which Russia is doing anywhere.
AGAINST RUSSIAN FUTURE - RUSSIA EXPANDS EVIL.
RUSSIAN TYRANNY THINKS NON-RUSSIANS DARE NOT RESIST.
RUSSIAN TYRANNY THINKS NO EINSHTEIN OR KARTVELY DARE HELP CIVILIZED WORLD TO STOP RUSSIA OR ADVISE THE WEST - RUSSIAN TELEPATHS CONTROL THEIR MIND AND BLADDERS.
DARE WE RESIST RUSSIAN EVIL?
EVENTUALLY WE WELL.
In Response

by: Konstantin from: Los Angeles
June 04, 2014 05:20
Putin is mind-controlled by madmen that I knew from childhood,
they were demanding since 1954-56 that Russia must expand
in each generation into non-Russian countries to breed there
ethnic Russians. If Putin will not repopulate more of Ukraine
by Russian bloody macaques, will he grab more of Georgia,
like South Ossetia and Abkhazia?
Putin, or his handlers, are dangerous criminally insane evil
Varag-Prussak macaques!

by: Eugenio from: Vienna
June 03, 2014 11:44
Are Hillary's pro-EU losers still dying in the Ukraine? Watch this video:

by: @sephiakarta from: Taklama.com
June 03, 2014 12:06
Re: Valeri Bganba placing a distant fifth in 2009's election, I think you're confusing him with Vitali Bganba.

About This Blog

This blog presents analyst Liz Fuller's personal take on events in the region, following on from her work in the "RFE/RL Caucasus Report." It also aims, to borrow a metaphor from Tom de Waal, to act as a smoke detector, focusing attention on potential conflict situations and crises throughout the region. The views are the author's own and do not represent those of RFE/RL.