Thursday, October 02, 2014


Caucasus Report

Report Of Thwarted Bid To Assassinate Chechen Leader Fails To Convince

It seems far-fetched that only two fighters would be sent to assassinate Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (second from right).
It seems far-fetched that only two fighters would be sent to assassinate Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (second from right).
A report that Chechen police killed two insurgents dispatched by self-styled Caucasus Emirate leader Doku Umarov to Grozny to assassinate Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov is less than convincing, for several reasons.

That report claims that the pro-Moscow Chechen authorities received warning of the planned assassination attempt from an informer infiltrated into the insurgency ranks. The two fighters were reportedly shadowed from the moment they "came out of the forest" until they reached Grozny, where they were intercepted and killed in a gunfight by five Chechen police under the command of Kurchaloi district police chief Khamzat Edilgiriyev.

All of those statements are questionable. First, assuming such an operation to kill Kadyrov was indeed planned, it would have been kept secret from all except a very small number of senior commanders; it would not have been common knowledge.

Second, if the pro-Moscow Chechen leadership  indeed has a "mole" within the insurgency ranks who is close enough to Umarov to know top-secret plans, why has that informant not communicated Umarov's whereabouts to his superiors to enable them to capture or kill him?

Third, Edilgiriyev contradicts himself. First he says the "mole" informed his superiors that the two men's assignment was to perpetrate a terrorist attack targeting Kadyrov. Then he claims that it only became clear after the two men were being shadowed that they were planning to stage a terrorist act.

Fourth, two fighters is almost certainly too few to get close enough to Kadyrov to kill him, bearing in mind the large-scale security precautions he always takes.  At least one, possibly more fighters would be needed to create a diversion (as during the three-man attack on the Chechen parliament in October 2010), plus two or three more to ensure that at least one of them got close enough to Kadyrov to detonate explosives that would kill them both.

Five, by the same token, five police officers is too few to be certain of neutralizing two seasoned fighters.  Six years ago this weekend, hundreds of Russian troops and Chechen police were deployed in an operation that lasted several hours to kill then-Chechen Republic Ichkeria President Abdul-Khalim Sadulayev. 

In fact, the only point in the entire account that rings true is that Umarov has come to the conclusion that without killing Kadyrov, no other attacks or assassinations would have any effect on the situation in Chechnya.

A more plausible scenario is that the Kurchaloi police intercepted two insurgents by chance, killed them in a routine shoot-out, and took advantage of the opportunity to circulate a fictional account of the operation that would demonstrate, on the one hand, their own vigilance and on the other, Umarov's incompetence as a military commander.

Tags: Chechnya,Ramzan Kadyrov

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Sascha from: Frankfurt
June 16, 2012 12:19
All these stories are nonsense. In reality the Kadyrovites killed two more innocent civilians!!! This is the truth and nothing else!!!! Only in the month of May eight innocent young men were executed by Kadyrov´s militias. They earn a lot of money by killing "Pseudo-rebels". Why should two young rebels simply walk around in Grozny without any military reason???? And why should five Kadyrovites from the Kurchaloy-ROVD meet them in Grozny???

It´s true,that the rebels want to kill Kadyrov,but he is constantly being surrounded by 500-600 bodyguards from the Kadyrov-clan! It´s almost impossible to kill him right now and Umarov wouldn´t waste the lives of young rebels senselessly on the streets of Grozny

by: aba from: A.
June 18, 2012 11:22
Everything makes sense
if Doku himself is the mole.

Two fighters would be enough if Doku told them he had a contact to get them near their target, and five police officers are just enough if the plan was to trick the two fighters in believing they would lead them to the attack.



by: Sergey from: Suburban Chicago, USA
June 18, 2012 11:44
"Fourth, two fighters is almost certainly too few to get close enough to Kadyrov to kill him, bearing in mind the large-scale security precautions he always takes. At least one, possibly more fighters would be needed to create a diversion (as during the three-man attack on the Chechen parliament in October 2010), plus two or three more to ensure that at least one of them got close enough to Kadyrov to detonate explosives that would kill them both."

Is this article an instruction manual on assassination ? No sympathy to either Kadyrov or Umarov, but I wonder whether you also plan to write manuals to suicide bombers, airplane hijakers and so on ?
In Response

by: Jack from: US
June 18, 2012 13:53
what is the big surprise here? RFE/RL is the CIA-operated US government propaganda outlet. US government is the major sponsor of terrorism. RFE/RL is in its supporting role, publishes instructions for suicide bombers, and other Wahhabi peaceful activists.
In Response

by: Demetrius Minneapolis from: Jack's House
June 19, 2012 21:51
And yet again you continue to read RFE (shhhh! CIA sponsered RFE) day after day.
You're either a glutton for punishment or mentally incompetent to understand the situation here.

by: Alex from: Britain
June 18, 2012 17:01
Oh my god,with the exception of Sascha three members of the Putin-youth make anti-american propaganda,LOL. Russian dumbasses,you are so poor in your brains!!!
In Response

by: Anonymous
June 19, 2012 06:15
Where is the "M" little Magas, from İngushetia. :) Arabs were teach him not to use that non-sense İngush-Chechen names.
In Response

by: M from: Ingushetia
June 19, 2012 13:07
Anonymous Russian, I am sorry I was not clear about the origins of my nickname let me assure its not Magas, it is the other M. Kapish?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M_(James_Bond)

by: Marc from: USA
June 19, 2012 10:36
Amazing! The rebels try to kill Kadyrov,while Kadyrov tries to kill Isa Yamadayev,who is hiding in Moscow. Interesting months ahead of us!

by: Ivan Solshuk from: Moscow
June 19, 2012 13:05
Well,Marc,"Kadyrov vs rebels","Kadyrov vs Yamadayev," "rebels vs Yamadayev", this all are bloody episodes in the brutal world of Chechen Clan-fighting. We russians don´t understand it. Not interesting for the Rest of the world. The Caucasus should be independent from Russia,i am fed up of this never-ending war,like most russians today
In Response

by: Sascha from: Germany
June 19, 2012 14:38
I must laugh,Ivan! WHO has brought criminals like Kadyrov and Yamadayev to power? YOUR GREAT LEADER PUTIN!!!! Dont lament,that Kadyrov´s killers are hunting Isa Yamadayev in Moscow and don´t lament,if some civilians will be killed in the crossfire,should they find him one day. Your own president has encouraged guys like Kadyrov and Yamadayev!!! Now they are shooting it out in your capital,well,bad luck for you russians

by: Anonymous
June 19, 2012 13:16
It is funny that neither Russians nor others understand that the hell is going on in the North Caucasus. The game of blaming CIA, FSB and other services. Yet none of the authors are willing to admit that Chechens are very smart people. They are playing you like fools. If they weren't smart they'd never defeat Russian armies centuries in the row. I bet if they were granted independence they'd declare neutrality and live as good as Switzerland.

by: Ivan Solshuk from: Moscow
June 19, 2012 14:32
as you could see in my last comment,i SUPPORT Independence for the Caucasus. I simply have problems with guys like Kadyrov and Yamadayev,who are shooting each other on the streets of Moscow. We Russians don´t want this

About This Blog

This blog presents analyst Liz Fuller's personal take on events in the region, following on from her work in the "RFE/RL Caucasus Report." It also aims, to borrow a metaphor from Tom de Waal, to act as a smoke detector, focusing attention on potential conflict situations and crises throughout the region. The views are the author's own and do not represent those of RFE/RL.