Friday, November 28, 2014


The Power Vertical

Free Elections Are Coming To Russia! No, Really!

Anticorruption blogger Aleksei Navalny will be running for a seat on the opposition's Coordinating Council.
Anticorruption blogger Aleksei Navalny will be running for a seat on the opposition's Coordinating Council.
Russia will have free and fair elections in October.
 
There will be real choice with multiple, viable candidates. There will be vigorous televised debates. The vote will be open and transparent, with clear rules of the game.
 
No, I'm not delusional. And no, I am not talking about the local elections scheduled for 73 Russian regions on October 14. Those, I expect, will be as fraudulent as ever.
 
What I'm talking about are the online primary elections the Russian opposition movement is holding a week later, on October 21-22, to choose a 45-member Coordinating Council.
 
The council will decide things like which candidates the opposition will back in future elections and when, where, and why to hold protests. In a nod to the diversity of the opposition movement, it will have five seats each reserved for liberals, nationalists, and leftists -- while 30 will go to at-large candidates.
 
An opposition Electoral Commission is already in place to register candidates and monitor the vote. The online television station Dozhd TV is hosting live debates among any candidates who want to participate. 
 
Some predictable names -- Boris Nemtsov, Garry Kasparov, and Dmitry Gudkov -- are running for seats on the council. So are some relatively fresher opposition figures like anticorruption blogger Aleksei Navalny, socialite-turned-activist Ksenia Sobchak, writers Dmitry Bykov and Lyudmila Ulitskaya, journalist Filipp Dzyadko, comedians Mikhail Shatz and Tatyana Lazareva, and the popular blogger Rustem Agadamov.
 
So why do we care about elections to a council that will be essentially powerless?
 
I think the opposition primaries are important, and merit attention, for a number of reasons.
 
Opposition figures themselves say they will be a dress rehearsal for free and fair elections in a post-Putin Russia. Along those lines, they are also setting an example by creating an alternative civil society where decisions are arrived at democratically.

The primaries are also important because the opposition clearly needs to move on from its street-protests stage.
 
The early demonstrations after December's disputed State Duma elections were widely interpreted as a show of strength by the rejuvenated opposition -- proof that true dissent was real and blossoming in Russian society and that the Kremlin's foes could consistently put people on the streets in large numbers.
 
But after the latest rally earlier this month -- which had a bit of a pro forma feel to it -- many in the media, including outlets sympathetic to the opposition, began to question the utility of street protests as a vehicle for change.
 
Successfully holding primaries to elect its leaders will be a powerful sign that the opposition is serious and maturing.
 
In a video recently posted on his blog, Navalny said the elections will be important in establishing the legitimacy of the opposition.

"The problem of the opposition's legitimacy needs to be decided through elections, [especially] if we are going to accuse the authorities of lacking legitimacy," he said.
 
But the new Coordinating Council will also present an important test for the opposition. Can figures as diverse as Navalny, Nemtsov, and Left Front leader Sergei Udaltsov, as well as their supporters, agree to abide by common rules of the game, even when they don't like the results? Will liberals support a nationalist or leftist candidate the Coordinating Council decides to back in some future election, or vice versa?
 
If the answer to these questions is yes, then next month's primaries will send an important message and represent something of a milestone for Russia's famously fractured opposition.  

-- Brian Whitmore

NOTE TO READERS: Tune in to the next edition of "The Power Vertical Podcast" on September 28, when my co-host Kirill Kobrin and I will discuss the issues raised in this blog post.

Tags: Russian opposition,primaries

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Jack from: US
September 27, 2012 19:11
apparently RFE/RL makes an implicit claim there are free elections in US. There are fewer and fewer people in US who actually believe the official myths, especially what concerns the "elections" here. US elections are nothing else but staged sham shows where ruling mafia "elects" each other, or rather "selects" yet another bafoon president
In Response

by: William from: Aragon
September 28, 2012 00:06
US citizens have the right to vote for the Republ-ocrat duopoly again, Jack. Anything outside of that would be unthinkable.
In Response

by: Sergio from: The Netherlands
September 28, 2012 19:29
Oh, another conspiracy theorist. OK.

by: Eugenio from: Vienna
September 28, 2012 09:21
The Huffington Post published a slide-show of PHOTOS of the street battle that took place in Moscow on September 25th. Here you will find the full photo-account of the event: http://www.huffingtonpost.es/2012/09/28/la-jueza-libera-a-34-de-l_n_1921931.html?utm_hp_ref=spain#slide=1569072
In Response

by: Jack from: US
September 29, 2012 13:46
good point Eugenio. The photos of a NATO minion Spain beating their own people to blood punch is not something US propaganda outlets like RFE/RL would like to promote. After all a NATO minion ought to be "democratic"
In Response

by: Eugenio from: Vienna
October 01, 2012 16:31
Exactly, Jack, and the most appolling of all is that this Radio "Free Europe" - i.e. the one that claims to promote freedom on this continent - did not find it necessary TO EVEN MENTION in some of their short news stories the fact that hundreds of thousands of Spaniards went to the streets on Sept. 25th to protest against the economic genocide imposed on them by Frau Merkel and the Germans and that the Spanish riot police WAS SHOOTING AT PEOPLE with rubber bullets in the Madrid Subway - something that did not happen there since the 1970s when the country was governed by the great friend of the US, the fascist General Francisco Franco. So much to the RFE/RL's committment to "free Europe".
VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZ8yNywAOEk&feature=relmfu
In Response

by: Jack from: US
October 01, 2012 18:58
that's right Eugenio! RFE/RL only spreads US government propaganda. It is against US government to show NATO minions shoot at their own people

by: Sean from: Pittsburgh, PA
September 28, 2012 14:05
You're far more optimistic, even a bid too uncritical of this effort than I am. True, it should be applauded because at least the "opposition" is trying to create something of an organizational body, and doing it through a democratic process. That said, as the chatter on the Runet suggests there is a great fear that this committee will simply be a "parade of stars" rather than anything of real political substance, let alone organizing force. Also, the committee is carved into ideological blocks. Granted, many of the big names have eschewed running under an ideological block and instead opting for the general civil category (which is the majority). This does two things it seems to me. First, the ideological blocks while on the surface maintains representation for the disparate ideological groups, but it also kicks the problem down the road rather than it be solved democratically through the election. Second, sure this is a sign of maturation, but I think that movements real maturity will come after the committee meets and begins to hammer strategy and positions. Lastly, indeed this has the potential to establish the legitimacy of the opposition. But to whom? A low voter turnout can also reveal that it remains after 10 months to still be talking to itself. So yes by all means praise the form, but display reticence toward the content.
In Response

by: Brian Whitmore from: Prague
October 01, 2012 09:32
What do I see here? An on-topic, thoughtful, and intelligent (not to mention intelligible) comment! Thanks Sean! Your points are well taken and I plan to follow up on this post and the subsequent podcast on the topic with a fresh post today. I see Oct. 21-22 as both a test and an opportunity for "the Other Russia." In essence, not just the "opposition," but a whole segment of society, is choosing its leaders.

by: Mark from: Victoria
September 28, 2012 22:00
In the Russia after Putin, Boris Nemtsov will be 64 years old. Garry Kasparov will be 61. Gennady Zyuganov will still be leading the Communists, although he will have died 4 years previously without anyone noticing. And if Putin is sclerotic and "not the dynamic man he once was" - as you keep saying - at 60, what will Nemtsov and Kasparov be like at 64 and 61 after more than a decade of futile complaining and constantly reinventing political parties that poll less than 5% of the vote?

Alexei Navalny's star has reached and passed its zenith, and he is struggling to stay relevant against a growing wave of skepticism among the hamsters; you have only to read the comments on his blog to see that. These are realities, not candy-cloud dreams of opposition glory.

An energized opposition which has its own plans for the country and openly disagrees with the government without being disloyal to national objectives is just part of a healthy democratic model. Russia doesn't have it, and the state owns disproportionate power, largely because the western media swoons over every newcomer as if he or she were a savior while maintaining a stable of aging pet dissidents who are supposed to mentor the "new firebrands". It never works, but the west keeps trying it, and I'm pretty sure there is already established wisdom on the principle of trying the same technique over and over and expecting different results.

And it's only going to get harder as NGO's are regulated or kicked out.
In Response

by: Frank
October 01, 2012 13:09
What do I see here? An on-topic, thoughtful, and intelligent (not to mention intelligible) comment! Thanks Mark! Your points are well taken, much unlike the kind of slant exhibited by the overall selection/non-selection of "Russia watchers" listed at the top right of this RFE/RL blog.

by: Vakhtang from: Moscow
October 02, 2012 03:02
I understand, mister Whitmore, you can not write the truth, there are certain frames..
Step aside, and Mr.Whitmore will get a headache-))))
-------------------------------------
Who is Mr.Putin? Mr.Putin is appointee ..He was appointed by drunk Yeltsin and corrupt gang around him..
Since then, he is in power in Russia thanks to polit.technologys and falsifications.
You list the members of the opposition...there is not one honest man or woman-))))
All of them were involved in illegal activities:
tax evasion
raud
bribes
blackmail
extortion and much more-))))
without this gentleman's set you can not live in Russia a normal life..
Putin and opposition-this is a gangs of rogues who are fighting for power and privileges from the point of view of an honest man-whom to power in Russia will never allow and who will be killed...
No free elections in Russia, Mr.Whitmore but gang wars for their machinations and crimes
and of course your job, Mr.Whitmore strain your brain and come up with the correct names of political thugs and other criminal mischiefs...this is the fate of the journalist who wants to eat..

by: La Russophobe from: USA
October 06, 2012 17:48
Oh Brian! Tsk, tsk, tsk. Shame on you! I'm as tough a critic of Putin as there is, but I'm offended by your decision that elections which haven't happened yet will be free and fair. Isn't such prejudgment totally inconsistent with advocacy of the principle? Let's not forget that whatever else Navalny, Nemtsov and Kasparov are, they are Russians. They come from a country that is the most corrupt of any major nation on the planet. The notion that they are as pure as the driven snow and that these elections will be pristine is not just naive, its farcical. Did you do ANY investigative reporting to determine what measures are being taken to secure the ballot by the opposition organizations? What's more, There's no basis for believing that as much as 0.1% of the Russian population will participate in these elections. Even if they were pure, they just wouldn't matter. The opposition has totally failed to galvanize even a noteworthy minority to support them, and the vast majority of Russians continue to support evil and oppression, just as they did in Soviet times.

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15:34 November 26, 2014

SIBERIAN AVIATION FOLLIES

So by now, we've all seen how passengers in Krasnoyarsk had to get out and push their flight out of the snow...

...and we've all seen the snarky Twitter memes this has inspired...

...but have you heard about onboard drunken onboard brawl that grounded a flight in Novosibirsk?

12:41 November 26, 2014

MIKHAIL ZYGAR OF DOZHD-TV HONORED

12:33 November 26, 2014

NO MISTRAL, NO FRENCH WINE!

Via The Moscow Times:

A lawmaker on the State Duma's Defense Committee has proposed banning the import of French wines in response to Paris' decision to suspend delivery of the first of two helicopter carriers to Russia.

"Let's ban the sale of French wine in Russia," Deputy Vladimir Bessonov told Russian News Service radio on Tuesday. "Even talking about this can bring about desired results," he said, without specifying what these would be.

France, under pressure from its Western allies to cancel a 1.2 billion euro contract ($1.58 billion) with Russia for Mistral-class warships, said earlier Tuesday that it was suspending delivery of the first of two carriers because of Russia's meddling in eastern Ukraine.

MEANWHILE, IN UKRAINE...

12:21 November 26, 2014
12:20 November 26, 2014

BAD NEWS AT SBERBANK

12:18 November 26, 2014

MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

INDEPENDENT JOURNALIST ESCAPES RUSSIA, SEEKS ASYLUM IN U.S.

By RFE/RL's Russian Service

The editor-in-chief of an independent Russian news website says he will seek political asylum in the United States.

Oleg Potapenko told RFE/RL on November 26 that he has arrived in the United States despite efforts by Russian authorities to prevent him from leaving the country.

Potapenko is editor of Amurburg.ru, a news site in the Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk that has reported about the presence of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.

On November 12, the openly gay Potapenko and his partner were prevented from boarding a flight from Khabarovsk to Hong Kong after border guards said a page was missing from Potapenko's passport.

Potapenko says the page was cut out by a police officer who requested his passport for a check earlier that day.

He told RFE/RL that he had managed to leave Russia from another city, Vladivostok, on November 16.

MERKEL SAYS RUSSIA TRAMPLING ON INTERNATIONAL LAW

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says Russia's actions in Ukraine are a violation of international law and a threat to peace in Europe.

Speaking bluntly in an address to Germany's parliament on November 26, Merkel said, "Nothing justifies the direct or indirect participation of Russia in the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk."

She told the Bundestag that Russia's actions have "called the peaceful order in Europe into question and are a violation of international law."

But she suggested there was no swift solution, saying, "Our efforts to overcome this crisis will require patience and staying power."

Germany has become increasingly frustrated over Moscow's refusal to heed Western calls to stop supporting pro-Russian separatists who have seized control of large parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in eastern Ukraine.

Close ties between Russia and Germany have been strained by the Ukraine crisis.

(Based on reporting by Reuters)

UKRAINE SAYS MORE RUSSIAN MILITARY IN EAST

Ukraine has leveled fresh charges that Russia is sending military support to pro-Russian separatists in the east.

A foreign ministry spokesman said five columns of heavy equipment were spotted crossing into Ukrainian territory on November 24.

Evhen Perebyinis told journalists on November 25 that a total of 85 vehicles had been detected in the five columns that entered at the Izvaryne border crossing point from Russia.

"The Russian side is continuing to provide the terrorist organizations of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics with heavy armaments," said Perebynisis.

Separately, the Ukrainian military said one soldier had been killed and five others wounded in the past 24 hours as a shaky cease-fire declared on September 5 continued to come under pressure.

The six-month conflict in the east of Ukraine has left more than 4,300 people dead, according to the United Nations.

(Based on reporting by AFP and Reuters)

RUSSIA SAYS IT WON'T ANNEX ABKHAZIA, SOUTH OSSETIA

By RFE/RL

Russia has rejected accusations that it is planning to annex Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told RFE/RL’s Current Time program on November 25: “There can be no question about any annexations.”

Georgia and the West have criticized a "strategic partnership" agreement between Russia and Abkhazia signed on November 24.

Tbilisi condemned the pact as an attempt by Moscow to annex the region.

Karasin also said Russia will “continue sparing no effort, nerves, financial expenses” to make sure its neighbors “do not feel endangered.”

"As a large state and a powerful country, Russia is constantly responsible for stability on its borders and everything that is under way along its borders," he added.

Under the "strategic partnership," Russian and Abkhaz forces in the territory will turn into a joint force led by a Russian commander.

 

19:16 November 21, 2014

POWER VERTICAL PODCAST: A YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY

On this week's Power Vertical Podcast, we use the one-year anniversary of the Euromaidan uprising to look at how it changed both Ukraine and Russia. My guests are Sean Guillory and Alexander Motyl.

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About This Blog

The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It covers emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or