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The Power Vertical

Podcast: The Empire Strikes Out

July 19, 2013

After months of speculation about the fate of opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, it looks like the Kremlin decided to show its teeth -- or at least it did at first.

In a courtroom in the city of Kirov on July 18, Judge Sergei Blinov sentenced Navalny to five years in prison on embezzlement charges widely viewed as trumped up.

Navalny was immediately handcuffed and taken into custody, ending speculation that he might get a suspended sentence -- and apparently ending his run in Moscow's mayoral elections.

So the Kremlin decided to play rough. Or did it?

It wasn't long before cracks began to appear in the monolith.

As thousands braved police cordons and took to the streets in protest in Moscow and elsewhere,the Prosecutor-General's Office announced that it was, in fact, illegal to detain Navalny in court and he should be free on bail pending appeal.

And that's exactly what happened. On July 19, Navalny was released less than 24 hours after he was detained and was soon on a train back home to Moscow.

Navalny's saga has reached a critical juncture. But does the Kremlin even have a strategy?

In the latest "Power Vertical Podcast," I discuss this ongoing political drama with New York University professor Mark Galeotti, author of the blog "In Moscow's Shadows," Kirill Kobrin of RFE/RL's Russian Service and a contributor to Polit.ru, and Sean Guillory of the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Russian and Eastern European Studies and author of "Sean's Russia Blog."

Enjoy...

Power Vertical Podcast: The Empire Strikes Out
Power Vertical Podcast: The Empire Strikes Outi
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Tags: Aleksei Navalny

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by: La Russophobe from: USA
July 19, 2013 18:45
The Kremlin convicted Navalny and sent him to jail for five long years, permanently depriving him of the right to seek political office and putting him on ice at the time of the next presidential election. It then cagily arranged it so Navalny can't cry foul over the mayoral election. It is going to let him run and have his head handed to him by voters, exposing his profound lack of support with mainstream Russians. You call this striking out? I call it hitting a grand slam (of evil).

The Kremlin itself is the one that raised the issue of letting him out to run while he appeals. It's pushing things far beyond the bounds of reason to suggest that the Kremlin following the law is somehow a basis to attack it. The Kremlin can use this as proof that the trial itself was legitimate, and it may well have orchestrated the proceedings for just this purpose (and to show Navalny how it can toy with him in cat-and-mouse fashion).

The notion that Navalny is somehow winning in all this defies common sense. He's losing. On Facebook, he invited over 50,000 people to attend the street demonstration in Moscow. Only a tiny fraction, reported 3,000 or so, showed up. It is a sign of sheer desperation to seek some type of "victory" in the Kirov proceedings.
In Response
by: Asehpe from: The Netherlands
July 20, 2013 00:49
Let's put it this way: in case this happens, I'm sure you're going to say "I told you" many times. But if it doesn't? If Navalny actually gets so many votes that allowing him to participate in the mayoral election actually turns out to be a bad move -- will you then apologize?

I'm just curious. Playing Juvenal is tiring, after a fashion, I suppose.
by: Konstantin from: Los Angeles
July 20, 2013 04:13
It's what Russia always did, since 9 Century AD.
They strangulate all, but Varagas and Prussians,
Especially the non-submissive to them Russians,
But if Foreign Powers dislike the particular dead,
They let him leave prison with tape on his kisser.
by: parsley from: London
July 20, 2013 07:58
I have to agree with La Russophobe. The Kremlin's tactics here are worthy of the chess grand master in From Russia with Love. Navalny's supporters were revealed and exposed in a damp squib protest in Moscow after the verdict; now he's been released to face the electorate where, by fair means or foul, he'll be snuffed out. the kremlin is having its cake and eating it. wondering whether it's handling this incompetently, or facing questions it cannot answer, reeks of complacency. it's a trap.
by: Ray F. from: Lawrence, KS
July 20, 2013 17:24
I enjoyed the podcast and thanks for your thoughts. Regarding the Kremlin’s use of fear-tactics, I suspect that they have more than a few other cards up their sleeves. As Navalny commented earlier, most of us are cowards when it comes up to confronting the state/police/steel-toed boot. Kremlin pressure to avoid politics and look the other way could become more insidious.

My other comment deals with Navalny’s funding. I listened to a program on RFE where Sergey Markov insisted that Navalny was being funded by William Browder (who, as I understand, has assumed the role of chief villain for the Kremlin media attack dogs). Yet, knowing how modern politics is played, I wondered if there is any truth to these allegations.
by: Vakhtang from: Moscow
July 23, 2013 05:49
Putin has not closed the criminal case against Navalny and he is in a suspended position.
This situation is more convenient for Putin than a suspended sentence to Navalny.
On the other hand, Putin realized that he went too far with Navalny given the increasing number of Putin's opponents, who are convicted.
The fact that Putin has realized his mistake too late is his miscalculation, so he had to make a decision that suggests the idea that he was afraid corny .

In Response
by: Eugenio from: Vienna
July 23, 2013 12:23
Vakhtang, man, you are back? Look, condemning Navalny and then letting his go was not as mistake - it was a calculation. Now he will lose the mayoral election - as long as losing is the only thing that friends of the US do well :-) - and will join his prison cell afterwards :-)).
In Response
by: Vakhtang from: Moscow
July 24, 2013 05:57
Navalny is raises mixed feeling
He is a man of xenophobia and nationalism
If we imagine that Navalny comes to power, I'm very doubt that he will be much to change all that Putin has done.Of course there are people who at Putin earned a lot of money and they do not want a new person and change but major changes in policy and the course will not be.
Therefore, the main noise make people who are afraid of losing money and privileges or fools, who beggars and think that when Navalny will come to power, they can to earn more money
To man in the street there is no difference between Putin and Navalny.
I know that my question mr. Navalny will not solve...
In Response
by: Eugenio from: Vienna
July 24, 2013 10:36
Ah, Vakhtang, the perspective of Navalny EVER coming to power in Russia is just as realistic as that of Sen. McCain EVER winning anyhting at all, be it the Vietnam War or a US presidential election :-)).
by: Eugenio from: Vienna
July 23, 2013 12:21
It was pretty smart of Putin to let this guy get condamned by the court for theft - and then let him go free. This pro-US loser will now get his 5 % in the upcoming mayoral elections in Moscow, will thus show his complete political bankruptcy - and will THEN join his fellow Khodorkovsky in a labour camp :-)).
By the way, guys, what happened to Bashar al-Assad? I thought he was going to be killed and pro-US terrorists were going to take over Syria - and in fact it looks like the US friends are being exterminated in Syria and Bashar is just as much in power as he was 2-5-10 years ago :-)).

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The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It offers Brian's personal take on emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or

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