Wednesday, November 26, 2014


The Power Vertical

Navalny Wins A Round

Aleksei Navalny speaks outside the Moscow Election Commission shortly before being briefly detained by police.
Aleksei Navalny speaks outside the Moscow Election Commission shortly before being briefly detained by police.
One has to wonder whether the Moscow police aren't secretly working for Aleksei Navalny.

Accompanied by hundreds of supporters and with video cameras rolling, the anticorruption blogger and opposition figure walked down the capital's central Tverskaya Street to the city's election commission on July 10 to register as a candidate.

When Navalny came out of the building to address his supporters and speak to journalists, he was inexplicably seized by police and hauled into a waiting paddy wagon. Chanting "shame," "Navalny is our mayor," and "release him," the crowd surrounded the bus.

And then, after a tense standoff, the police let Navalny go -- and reportedly apologized to him.

"Thus begins our spectacular election campaign," he told his cheering supporters, who then fanned out to stump for their newly minted candidate.

"Thank you everyone! Thank you that you didn't disperse and didn't leave me alone in this. Because of you they let me go. Let's be like this for everyone. One for all!" he said.

And the crowd chanted back: "And all for one!"

It could easily be turned into an advertisement -- and perhaps will be. The video, in any event, is clearly destined to go viral. (You can watch the whole thing from start to finish here or here.) 

WATCH NAVALNY BEING DETAINED HERE:


AND WATCH HIM SPEAK TO SUPPORTERS AFTER BEING RELASED HERE:



As a metaphor for -- and a microcosm of -- the battle Navalny finds himself in, the whole incident was pretty fitting.

Today he started his campaign for Moscow mayor, an uphill struggle under the best of circumstances.

And next week, on July 18, a court in Kirov Oblast is due to issue a verdict in Navalny's highly politicized trial on embezzlement charges widely viewed as trumped-up. If the expected guilty verdict comes down, Navalny could find himself incarcerated for a lot longer than the brief stint he spent in a paddy wagon. 

But with thousands of people already pledged to take to the streets in his defense, locking up Navalny for the six years prosecutors -- and thus the Kremlin -- are asking for will not be without cost.

Which gets to the heart of the asymmetrical tactics Navalny has long deployed.

If I'm right about him, and I think I am, he's playing a long game, building up a reservoir of goodwill and street cred that make him the clear eventual alternative to Vladimir Putin's regime.

In his closing statement in court last week, when he vowed to "liquidate the feudal system that is stealing from us all," Navalny acted like someone who knows he owns the future.

"Despite the fact that you sit in judgement of me and can imprison me, I will fight for you," he said.

"And if anybody thinks I am afraid of this six years I am threatened with and will run away abroad or somewhere, they are seriously mistaken. I will wait it out. I cannot run away from myself. I don't want to do anything but help my fellow citizens."

This is a man who just might be even more dangerous to the Kremlin in prison than he is on the street.

NOTE TO READERS: I wasn't planning on blogging on Navalny for the second day in a row, but today's events left me little choice.

Tags: Aleksei Navalny

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Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Eugenio from: Vienna
July 11, 2013 03:59
One has to wonder whether Navalny is just a stooge of NATO, a Zionist pawn on the road to irrelevance.
In Response

by: Alex from: Baltimore
July 11, 2013 17:06
No need to wonder about you - an anti-Semitic, anti-American left wing fool already made irrelevant by the spectacular global failure of communism and socialism. Stop maligning Russian dissidents, you pathetic, conspiracy-mongering pro-Putin troll. Navalny has nothing to do with NATO, Israel, or the US - he's just a Russian fighting Putin and his gang of crooks and thugs. More power to him.
In Response

by: shay from: boston
July 11, 2013 19:30
Alex – I like your response to that clown, but please don't be so hard on socialism. The Soviet Union was never socialist, instead look at present-day Sweden, or Norway where 90% of their oil profits are funneled directly back to the people. Even France has an acceptable model. In America I challenge you to defy the manifesto of avowed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders in Vermont, a lone voice of reason in a broken political system.
In Response

by: Eugenio from: Vienna
July 14, 2013 19:30
Aha, I am the clown who has spent more than two years promising the "endgame" for Bashar al-Assad, and I am also the clown who is currnetly making a complete fool of himself by trying to "pressure" all sorts of countries into handing Edwars Snowden to the US to "face the music". Just laugh into my face, as long as it is my criminal activities of spying on everyone all over the world that have recently been exposed :-)).
In Response

by: Shay from: Boston
July 11, 2013 19:23
One has to wonder if Putin is just a stooge of the cleptocracy of elites who have robbed Russia blind, a figurehead for the KGB/FSB thugs who rely upon imagined enemies in order to justify their existence, with no safe exit planned due to the endless enemies he has spawned throughout the world.
In Response

by: Asehpe from: The Netherlands
July 12, 2013 01:22
Always designed to maximize laughing.

Have a good weekend! :)

by: La Russophobe from: USA
July 12, 2013 12:02
I find it kind of troubling that there is not one single critical word said about Navalny in this piece. I reads much more like a piece of campaign propaganda produced by Navalny himself than like journalism or critical analysis.

And then there's the wishful thinking! It's rather naive to suggest that Navalny is dangerous to the Kremlin. This is exactly the kind of thing that used to be written about Khodorkovsky before it turned out that the latter was never going to let out of jail and that the people of Russia didn't care. Long game? You must be kidding.

Don't forget that a big part of the street support for Navalny came from Nazis and Commies, and even then it wasn't that substantial. Navalny is no King, Mandela or Gandhi.

Navalny isn't going to get more powerful or well known by spending time in prison. He'll be permanently disqualified from holding elective office and he'll be forgotten. It's now very clear he has no real electoral support even in Moscow, much less elsewhere in Russia. Meanwhile, who is going to front the opposition while he's in prison? Is there any reason to think it won't degenerate further into the same type of squabbling we've always seen?

by: Eugenio from: Vienna
July 14, 2013 19:55
VIDEO: 'No justice, no peace!' Angry protests sweep Russia over Navalny trial - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XojO_N2E3M&feature=youtube_gdata_player

by: Zackery from: USA
July 16, 2013 03:24
It's becoming clear that it is only a matter of time before the Russian people throw the failing Putin system out.

You can sense in it the crowds everywhere.
In Response

by: Eugenio from: Vienna
July 16, 2013 09:05
:-))) Aha, that is probably also the sense of Gérard Depardieu and Edward Snowden: that's probably the major reason why they left their native France and USA and moved to Russia.
By the way, will the Russian people throw Putin out before or after the so often promised "endgame" for Bashar al-Assad has finally come :-))?
In Response

by: La Russophobe from: USA
July 17, 2013 10:53
Sure! Just like it was only a matter of time for the Communists.

And how long did that take, exactly?

The Power Vertical Feed

In this space, I will regularly comment on events in Russia, repost content and tweets I find interesting and informative, and shamelessly promote myself (and others, whose work I like). The traditional Power Vertical Blog remains for larger and more developed items. The Podcast, of course, will continue to appear every Friday. I hope you find the new Power Vertical Feed to be a useful resource and welcome your feedback. More

19:16 November 21, 2014

POWER VERTICAL PODCAST: A YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY

On this week's Power Vertical Podcast, we use the one-year anniversary of the Euromaidan uprising to look at how it changed both Ukraine and Russia. My guests are Sean Guillory and Alexander Motyl.

09:14 November 21, 2014
09:11 November 21, 2014

AND AS TENSIONS RISE IN THE BALTICS...

09:09 November 21, 2014

MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

UKRAINE MARKS START OF EUROMAIDAN PROTESTS WITH NEW HOLIDAY
By RFE/RL
Ukrainians are marking a new national holiday on November 21 -- the anniversary of the start of Kyiv’s Euromaidan protests that led to the ouster of the country’s former pro-Kremlin regime.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed decree on November 13 that declared the holiday for annual “Day of Dignity and Freedom” celebrations.
The protests began with a few hundred people who met spontaneously on a vast square in central Kyiv of November 21, 2013 – disappointed by then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of a landmark deal with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia.
After that first night, as the protests quickly swelled to tens of thousands of demonstrators, brutal police efforts to disperse the crowds with batons and teargas backfired.
As the crowds got bigger, the protesters began to call for Yanukovych’s ouster – which came in February 2014 after more than 100 people were killed in clashes with police that failed to end the demonstrations.

BIDEN TO MEET UKRAINIAN LEADERS, ANNOUNCE NONLETHAL U.S. AID
By RFE/RL
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was expected to announce an increase in nonlethal U.S. military assistance to Ukraine on November 21 as he meets in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
The talks come on the first anniversary of the start of the Euromaidan protests in Kyiv that toppled Ukraine's former pro-Kremlin regime.
As Biden arrived in Kyiv on the evening of November 20, U.S. officials told reporters that he will announce the delivery of Humvee transport vehicles that are now in the Pentagon’s inventory of excess supplies.
They said Biden also would announce the delivery of previously promised radar units that can detect the location of enemy mortars.
The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not specify a dollar value for the assistance. 
Russia on November 20 warned the United States not to supply weapons to Ukrainian forces.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Aleksandr Lukashevich cautioned against "a major change in policy of the (U.S.) administration in regard to the conflict" in Ukraine. 
He was commenting on remarks by U.S. President Barack Obama's choice to fill the number two spot at the State Department, Anthony Blinken, who told a congressional hearing on November 19 that lethal assistance "remains on the table. It's something that we're looking at."
The U.S. State Department's Director of Press Relations Jeffrey Rathke on November 20 told reporters that "our position on lethal aid hasn't changed. Nothing is off the table and we continue to believe there's no military solution."
He added, "But, in light of Russia's actions as the nominee mentioned [on November 19] in his testimony, as he indicated, this is something that we should be looking at."
The aid expected to be announced by Biden on November 20 falls short of what the Ukrainian president requested during a visit to Washington in September when he appealed for lethal aid - a request echoed by some U.S. lawmakers in response to what NATO allies say is Russia's movement of tanks and troops into eastern Ukraine.
In September, Washington promised Ukraine $53 million in aid for military gear that includes the mortar detection units, body armor, binoculars, small boats, and other nonlethal equipment for Ukrainian security forces and border guards in the east.
The United States and its European allies have imposed several rounds of economic sanctions on Russia for its seizure of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine.
(With reporting by Reuters, AP, AFP, dpa, and TASS)

RUSSIAN OLYMPIAN CHARGED WITH SPOUSAL ABUSE IN UNITED STATES
Russian Olympian hockey player Slava Voynov – who plays with the Los Angeles Kings NHL hockey team – has been charged with felony domestic violence against his wife.
Voynov faces one felony count of spouse abuse with a maximum penalty of nine years in prison. If convicted, he also could be deported.
Prosecutors say Voynov “caused his wife to suffer injuries to her eyebrow, check, and neck” during an argument at their home in October.
Voynov has been suspended from the NHL since his arrest early on October 20 at a California hospital where he took his wife for treatment.
Voynov’s attorney, Craig Renetzky, says his client didn’t hit his wife.
Renetzky blames the charges on a misunderstanding between police and Voynov’s wife, who speaks very little English.
Voynov – who played on Russia’s team at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics -- faces arraignment on December 1.
(Based on reporting by AP and Reuters)

NATO: RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN BALTICS POSES RISK
NATO says Russia's growing military presence in the skies above the Baltic region is unjustified and poses a risk to civil aviation.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Tallinn on November 20 that the aircraft regularly fail to file flight plans or communicate with air controllers and also fly with their transponders off.
Speaking at the Amari air base, he said alliance fighters have intercepted planes more than 100 times in the Baltic region alone so far this year, a threefold increase over 2013. 
He did not say how many of the intercepted aircraft were Russian.
Stoltenberg also said that, overall, NATO aircraft have conducted 400 intercepts to protect the airspace of its European alliance members in 2014 -- an increase of 50 percent over last year.
(Based on reporting by AP and AFP)

 

16:55 November 19, 2014

MORE ON THE SOURCES OF RUSSIAN ANTI-AMERICANISM

Konstantin Eggert has a commentary in "Kommersant" on Russia's anti-Americanism. He opens like this:

"Sometimes I have this feeling that there are only two countries in the world - Russia and the United States. Of course, there is Ukraine, but it either to join us or the Americas. Russian politicians and state television are constantly in search of the 'American hand' in all spheres of our life. In Soviet times, the United States was formally considered to be our number one military and ideological enemy. But even then it didn't occupy such a large space in the minds of the political leadership and citizens. And the paradox is that, on one hand, officials and the media regularly talk about the decline of America as a great power, and on the other declare it to be the source of all evil in the world. This contradiction does not seem to disturb anybody."

And closes like this:

We still have not been able to use the opportunity that we were given with the collapse of the communist regime - to arrange our lives based on liberty and civic virtue. And today, we, as a people, want to go back to the starting point, to beat everyone. And the Soviet Union, with its absence of sausage and freedom, again suddenly seems sweet and dear. But it won't happen. I will put it banally: you can't go into the same river twice.

Read the whole thing here (in Russian, with audio)

15:53 November 19, 2014

UNDERSTANDING THE INFORMATION WAR

MIchael Weiss, editor-in-chief of The Interpreter magazine, appearing on Hromadske TV to talk about Russia's information war.

Michael and Peter Pomarantsev recently co-authored an excellent report "The Menace of Unreality: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture, and Money." Both also appeared recently on The Power Vertical Podcast to discuss the report.

15:42 November 19, 2014

WHY IS PUTIN PICKING A FIGHT WITH THE U.S.?

Oleg Kosyrev has a snarky and clever blog post on the subject up on the Ekho Moskvy website. 

1) The United States is the ideal opponent. "It is big and strong and your self-esteem increases when you fight somebody really influential."

2) The United States is not fighting with Russia. "They aren't really interested. They have enough of their own problems and dreams. It's nice to fight somebody who is not fighting you."

3) It is a substitute for the authorities' inability to benefit Russians. "How convenient. Who is to blame for rising food and gas prices? The U.S.A.. Who is to blame for the fact that Russian has political prisoners? The U.S.A. Who is to blame for people demonstrating on the streets? The U.S.A. Who is to blame for the fact that independent international courts denounce the Russian court system? The U.S.A. You can even blame the U.S. for the fact that the light doesn't work in the entrance to your apartment building."

Read it all (in Russian) here.

15:23 November 19, 2014

UKRAINE SAYS MHI7 SHOT DOWN BY RUSSIAN CREW

14:47 November 19, 2014

AFTERNOON NEWS ROUNDUP: THE SEQUEL

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

KYIV, WEST SAY RUSSIA CANNOT BAR UKRAINE FROM NATO

Ukraine says it will not tolerate pressure from any other country over whether or not it seeks to join NATO.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyynis spoke made the remark to reporters in Kyiv on November 19, after the BBC quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying in an interview that Moscow wants "a 100 percent guarantee that no-one would think about Ukraine joining NATO."

Hitting back with a reference to Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Perebyynis said Kyiv would like guarantees that Moscow will not interfere in Ukraine's internal affairs, send in troops, or annex Ukrainian territories. 

The U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, told journalists on November 19 that any decision on seeking to join NATO could be made only by the Ukrainian people, not by Russia, Europe, ar the United States.

The Canadian Ambassador to Ukraine, Roman Waschuk, made a similar statement on November 19.

(Based on reporting by UNIAN and Interfax)

PUTIN TELLS U.S. ENVOY TIES MUST BE BASED ON EQUALITY

President Vladimir Putin says that Russia is ready for cooperation with the United States as long as Washington treats Moscow as an equal, respect its interests, and refrains from interfering in its affairs.

Putin spoke November 19 at a Kremlin ceremony during which he received the credentials of foreign envoys including John Tefft, the new U.S. Ambassador to Moscow.

Putin said, "We are ready for practical cooperation with our American partners in various fields, based on the principles of respect for each other's interests, equal rights and non-interference in internal matters." 

The remark echoed a formula Putin set out in a foreign policy decree at the start of his third term in 2012.

Tefft, 64, is a career diplomat who previously served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Georgia and Lithuania. 

His posting starts at a time when ties are badly strained over the Ukraine crisis. 

Tefft replaces Michael McFaul, who was ambassador from January 2012 until February 2014. 

(Based on reporting by Reuters and TASS)

RUSSIA SAYS 2010 NUCLEAR ARMS PACT STILL IN RUSSIA'S INTERESTS

By RFE/RL

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has signaled that a landmark nuclear arms treaty with the United States is not in jeopardy despite severe tension over Ukraine.

Speaking to Russian lawmakers on November 19, Lavrov said the 2010 New START treaty "meets our basic strategic interests and, on condition of its observance by the United States, we are interested in its full implementation."

The treaty, one of the main products of President Barack Obama's first-term "reset" of ties with Russia, requires Russia and the United States to have their long-range nuclear arsenals under specific ceilings by 2018.

But Lavrov said the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, which President Vladimir Putin suspended in 2007, is "dead" for Moscow. 

NATO has refused to ratify a revised version of the CFE treaty without a full withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova and Georgia.

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The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It covers emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or