Saturday, May 26, 2012


The Power Vertical

Putin And Kudrin: Russia's Real Tandem

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and former Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin, who resigned in late September after a spat with President Dmitry Medvedev.
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Amid all the showmanship and bravado on display during Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's live call-in program yesterday, there also came a rare moment of sincerity.

This happened when Putin was asked to comment on former Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin, who resigned under pressure following a public spat with President Dmitry Medvedev in late September.

"Aleksei Leonidovich Kudrin has not left my team," Putin said. "We are old comrades, he's my friend. He did a lot for the country. I'm proud that this man worked in my government. Such people are needed and will be needed in current and future governments."

On one hand, Putin's comments can be viewed as a subtle dig at President Dmitry Medvedev, who demanded Kudrin's resignation after the finance minister criticized his plans to increase military spending by $65 billion over the next three years. (The rare public dust-up came just days after Putin announced that he intended to return to the Kremlin next year and planed to make Medvedev his prime minister. Kudrin was reportedly not happy about the job swap.)

But there is probably more to it than that. The prime minister's remarks also a sign that Kudrin remains influential despite his resignation three months ago.

It's not clear whether Kudrin will return to serve in the government -- a move that would certainly cheer nervous investors -- or go on to form a liberal political party.

But he remains a player -- and one who is not going to be shy about speaking his mind about Russia's current political impasse.

In comments to reporters hours after Putin spoke on Thursday, Kudrin made it clear that at the moment his sympathies lie with the tens of thousands of anti-Kremlin protestors who took to the streets on December 10 to protest electoral fraud -- and plan to do so again on December 24.

"I myself support honest elections," Kudrin told reporters. "The elections just held took place with major violations and we have not yet heard an adequate answer from those responsible, and in general from the powers that be."

He also took Putin to task for disparaging remarks he made about the mass demonstrations. "I don't agree with this attitude towards the protesters...there is no need to provoke them," Kudrin told reporters.

Kudrin is the most senior member of Putin's team thus far to come out so strongly -- and publicly -- in favor of the protestors. And he is in a prety unique position to make his voice heard.

Putin and Kudrin are indeed very close friends, dating back to their time working together in the St. Petersburg government under Mayor Anatoly Sobchak in the 1990s. (As I have noted on numerous occasions, Kudrin is widely rumored to be the only official allowed to use the familiar "ty" form with Putin in private conversations.)

In addition to personal affinity, Putin also has a great deal of professional respect for Kudrin, whom he tasked with keeping Russia's fiscal house in order while he consolidated political power and strengthened his power vertical.

Kudrin's vigilance and insistence on fiscal discipline often put him in conflict with other members of the ruling circle, most notably Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who oversees the energy sector and is the informal leader of the siloviki clan of security service veterans close to Putin.

Sechin -- who is far less enamored of fiscal discipline than Kudrin -- tried on numerous occasions to get the finance minister sacked. But each tme Kudrin came under threat, at least until the public feud with Medvedev, Putin backed him up.

For most of his public life, Kudrin steered clear of politics, preferring to play the role of the competent technocrat and economic manager. That all changed earlier this year, when he began calling for political reform, arguing that without it, true economic modernization would be impossible.

Speaking at the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum in February, Kudrin said Russia needed open and inclusive elections, arguing that in order to make difficult and painful economic choices, the government will need a "mandate of trust" from the Russian people.

And in March, during an appearance at the forum "Russia and the World: Looking For An Investment Strategy," Kudrin made the case again:

"This country needs an institution that will make sure that we participate in formulation of these rules and their application," he said. "As matter of fact, we already have such an institution, and by that I mean elections."

Putin failed to heed Kudrin's earlier calls for political liberalization, which now look prophetic. Will he listen to the advice of his old friend and colleague now?

-- Brian Whitmore

NOTE: THIS POST WAS UPDATED ON DECEMBER 17
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Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: piccola bee from: oregon
December 17, 2011 17:30
Thanks for the insightful article which goes beyond reactionary journalism. One potential benefit of the protests in Moscow and Russia over the last several weeks is the upspike in commentary and analysis of the Russian political dynamic, which at least to this observer, has seemed murky and at times tawdry, e.g. the 'strip for Putin' videos released this year. Best wishes.

by: Marisa from: Boston
December 18, 2011 02:42
I am not really sure Putin is listening, or perhaps he is pretending not to listen. It seems he hopes the people just get tired of protesting, go home, and sip their vodka. This is what every dictator wants - blind docility from the people. I believe what Putin fears most is being thrown in jail like some deposed Arab leader. I personally think he deserves to sit behind bars for some time to reflect on how he lead Russia down such an authoritarian path. My thought is this: who in the hell Putin, Assad, Mugabe, Hu Jintao, Nazarbayev, Kim Jong-il, Khomeini, etc. think they are? As if people should have so much power or other individuals, especially for the purpose of controlling their destinies. It is a kind of illness that can only be remedied by the reality of time sitting in prison. I simply hope the protesters continue and the numbers swell to give Putin the message that "we really don't want you telling us what to do!"

by: Mark from: Victoria
December 20, 2011 04:01
"As if people should have so much power or other individuals, especially for the purpose of controlling their destinies. It is a kind of illness that can only be remedied by the reality of time sitting in prison."

Hallelujah!! That's just the kind of spine I like to see displayed. Down with dictators!!!

This is exciting. So there's no time to waste; I'd like you to get hold of your lawyer tomorrow morning (probably too late tonight) and swear out a warrant for the arrest of George W. Bush, for shameless misuse of the unitary executive provisions. Bush used these vaguely-defined powers to listen in on your telephone conversations, read your email, and obtain your library records to see what books you were reading. The librarian wasn't allowed to tell you somebody was looking into your private business, or she could be arrested. If he didn't like what he heard, Bush claimed the power to declare you an enemy combatant, and to imprison you for as much time as he saw fit without benefit of legal representation, and to try you by military tribunal.

I imagine you took to the streets to demonstrate when you heard about these misuses of presidential power, did you? Good for you!!

Meanwhile, you managed to hit on just about every stereotype. You may be amazed to learn that not every Russian starts and ends every day with a shot of vodka, any more than every American has a Big Mac for breakfast and a pizza for supper.
In Response

by: Brian Whitmore from: Prague
December 20, 2011 15:15
Just a reminder: This is a blog about Russian politics and foreign affairs. It is not a blog about U.S. politics. It is not a blog comparing Russia and the United States. I would respectfully request that those participating in the comment threads here keep their remarks on topic. If you are interested in U.S. politics, I can suggest many fine blogs (if your politics run left of center, I would suggest Daily Kos; if they run right, try Red State, for example). Using this forum to vent about U.S. politics (either pro- or anti-) does nothing to further our understanding of Russian affairs, which is the Power Vertical's goal. Thank you.
In Response

by: Mark from: Victoria
December 22, 2011 16:29
I see. So when someone from the United States posts some nonsense about Putin being a dictator who fears being thrown in jail, the appropriate way to put that in context would be to compare it with someplace else in Russia? Since Vladimir Putin is the leader of all of Russia, I hope you'll allow it makes it a tad difficult to defend his position if comparison with the critic's regime is off limits?

Numerous "scholarly" articles ramble on about Russia's declining population, for example. If one is forced to debate that without comparison, then one would be forced to acknowledge that well, yes; the birth rate is below replacement rate, and concede the point. Once it's pointed out, though, that most of the world's populations are in decline and that inward immigration is a compensator for most of the west as well, the situation looks considerably different.

If the aim is to suggest Russia should not be a WTO member because of its grievous human rights situation, to use another example, it puts the suggestion in a different light to point out that Zimbabwe is a member, and furthermore does not suffer daily press castigation for its human-rights violations. If that's not permitted, then anyone who wishes to discuss Russia from a realistic standpoint would have to just scuff the floor with their toe and admit that yes, Russia does have a human-rights problem.

The abuses of American privacy listed above certainly make the government sound authoritarian and dictatorial, don't they? In my opinion, they make the Russian government sound less so through comparison, as these violations would certainly be front-page news and hotly debated if they occurred in Russia. The furtherance of an understanding of Russian affairs is not well served if it grows in a vacuum, in which the daily debate is simply a Greek chorus of Kremlin-bad-liberals-good. It serves excellently to nourish resentments and uninformed beliefs.

I understand you believe Vladimir Putin is doing a horrible job running Russia, and that Russia would take a prompt turn for the better if he were replaced, preferably with a liberal like Boris Nemtsov. I just happen to disagree, but you make it very difficult to do anything but go along with your viewpoint if context is forbidden.
In Response

by: Brian Whitmore from: Prague
December 22, 2011 18:01
Mark, all I am asking is that those participating in comment threads on this blog keep their comments civil and on topic. Just because somebody commenting here is from the United States does not mean they represent the United States government or agree with all of its policies. And replying to said person's comments about Russia with a rant about the United States is not only irrelevant, it also does nothing to further our understanding of Russia -- which is the goal of this blog. So if you wish to continue commenting on the Power Vertical's threads, please keep your remarks civil and on topic. Thank you.
In Response

by: Mark from: Victoria
December 23, 2011 00:09
All right. Fair enough.

About This Blog

The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It covers emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or

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