Friday, July 25, 2014


Qishloq Ovozi

Central Asia's New Best Friends Cement Relations

Turkmenistan's Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov (left) and Tajikistan's Emomali Rahmon in Dushanbe on May 5 -- new best friends forever?
Turkmenistan's Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov (left) and Tajikistan's Emomali Rahmon in Dushanbe on May 5 -- new best friends forever?
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov visited Tajikistan on May 5-6 in the latest sign of what's becoming the best bilateral relationship in Central Asia.

The focus of Berdymukhammedov's meeting with Tajik counterpart Emomali Rahmon was energy and transportation. Those two topics are the basis for the growing friendly ties between Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.

Construction of Line D of a network of natural-gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to China is scheduled to start soon and new line, unlike the previous three lines, will transit (after Uzbekistan) the territories of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will not receive any gas from the pipeline but will receive transit fees, which Chinese officials have assured Kyrgyzstan, at least, will amount to some $1 billion annually.

Turkmenistan is anxiously trying to sell its gas in all directions, particularly a direction that doesn't lead through Russia. Unfortunately Turkmenistan does not have many options and the Trans-Afghan (TAPI) and Trans-Caspian pipeline projects remain on paper.

When Line D, the last of the four, is completed Turkmenistan will be exporting some 65 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually. That is more gas than Turkmenistan has ever exported in a year.

Rail Transit Around Uzbekistan

Another topic of the Berdymukhammedov-Rahmon meeting was the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan railway project, which Tajikistan is keenly interested in.

Former Tajik railroad chief Amonullo Hukumatullo summed up the importance of the new railroad at the end of January when he said: "Uzbekistan is creating all kinds of obstacles to transit transportation of our goods. If this road is built, there will not be such problems. We will not have the problem of blocking of the railway by Uzbekistan...and we will also not have to pay Uzbekistan for transit of our goods at the high price set by Uzbekistan." *

All railway routes to Tajikistan pass through Uzbekistan. For several years, Uzbekistan has been stalling railway traffic from Russia and particularly from Iran from entering Tajikistan. Iran has been supplying, or attempting to supply, Tajikistan with construction materials for hydropower plants, one of which an Iranian company is building. Uzbekistan opposes the plants, claiming they would reduce water to Uzbek fields downstream.

The railway from Turkmenistan would give Tajikistan a route that does not transit Uzbek territory.

China is also backing a plan to extend that railway line at both ends, westward in Iran and eastward into China. There is an existing railway (Mashhad-Serakhs-Tejen) line built in the mid-1990s between Iran and Turkmenistan, which lies several hundred kilometers west of the new line.

Though the railway appears to benefit Tajikistan the most, Turkmenistan also stands to gain, as one of the topics during the meeting of the two presidents was mining. Mountainous Tajikistan has an abundance of mineral resources while the largely desert terrain of Turkmenistan offers little.

Tajikistan has also been anxious to again receive electricity from Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan was exporting electricity to Tajikistan via transmission lines that ran through Uzbekistan. Uzbek authorities shut those lines down several years ago, at first citing the need to repair the lines. They haven't worked since.

Turkmenistan's state information agency reported that Berdymukhammedov offered to supply electricity from power stations being built in Turkmenistan's Mary and Lebap provinces to Tajikistan during the autumn and winter months.

Like the railroad, the power lines would run through northern Afghanistan. Some electricity would also go to Afghanistan.

Autumn and winter are critical times for Tajikistan, since the country's hydropower plants are running at reduced capacity.

The railway and the electricity lines are dependent on stability in Afghanistan and that may be another reason Berdymukhammedov is warming ties with Tajikistan. Ethnic Tajiks have been key players in the Afghan government before and after the Taliban was in power and Tajikistan's government has traditionally had good relations with the Tajiks of Afghanistan.

Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have never had bad ties since independence. Several thousand Tajiks fled to and were taken in by Turkmenistan during the 1992-97 Tajik civil war.

There simply has not been much opportunity for interaction between the two countries. Until Berdymukhammedov came to power in late 2006 both governments had bad relations with the country that lies between them, Uzbekistan.

Berdymukhammedov's predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, did not get along with Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov, whom Niyazov accused, with good reason, of being behind a plot to kill him. Tajikistan's President Rahmon has not been on good terms with Karimov for more than 15 years for a variety of reasons.

It is, perhaps, therefore natural that this newfound friendship is built in part on cooperation that avoids Uzbekistan.
 
* Ironically, the importance of the railway to Tajikistan was underscored when Hukumatullo was dismissed a few days later, in part to assuage the anger of the Turkmen government.

Hukumatullo mentioned in those late January comments that he spoke with Afghan counterparts about altering the railway route at the Turkmen-Afghan border. Turkmenistan's Foreign Ministry quickly issued a statement complaining, "The approval of the section of the railway track with exit to the Turkmen-Afghan border without the participation of Turkmenistan is tendentious and absolutely unacceptable for the Turkmen side."

-- Bruce Pannier, with contributions from Salimjon Aioubov, Iskander Aliyev, and Tohir Safarov of RFE/RL's Tajik Service and Muhammad Tahir of RFE/RL's Turkmen Service
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Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Feridoun
May 08, 2014 12:58
Could this arrangement open up these two closed societies? Through Afghanistan?

by: Ivo from: €urope
May 08, 2014 20:25
The shortest path for Turkmen gas and Azeri gas/oil to the biggest and closest market (=Europe) is through Iran and Turkey, but hey! Let's sanction Iran, leave Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan with little to no sales markets, buy Russian gas (even if that means nearly 100% reliance on it for some EU members), let Russia blackmail and tear Ukraine apart etc etc.

After all, it's Iran who's the big bad villain, right?

by: American Tolerast
May 09, 2014 00:25
Gotta love Eurasian politics. All it takes for two of their states to be friends is other states between them. Besides these two, think Russia/Armenia, Albania/Turkey, Greece/Serbia and more. Speaking of which, if Hungary had kept Slavonija and/or Vojvodina, then Serbia and Croatia would be lovers too. Inversely, if Macedonia was still southern Serbia, then the only tourists at Lake Ohrid would be Serb and Greek troops chomping at the bit to kill each other. Even now, the entire region is constitutionally incapable of peace without common threats, even if a threat needs to be invented. We mistake it as cultural mediocrity because It's All About Honor And History™.

Meanwhile, Europe and North America cruise along in our unmanly, liberast, decadent, egalitarian manner with our unguarded borders and inexplicable tolerance of anyone not hellbent on killing entire groups of people because of something that happened centuries ago. Surely we'll all collapse any minute now. We've been told so for decades. After all, we're really exactly like them and only pretend to have different values. That's why Golden Dawn and Front National and the Tea Party all have 90+% support in their countries, right?
In Response

by: LG from: USA
May 10, 2014 21:11
What is your point? Did you only intend to make a simplistic remark about geopolitics?

About This Blog

Qishloq Ovozi is a blog by RFE/RL Central Asia specialist Bruce Pannier that aims to look at the events that are shaping Central Asia and its respective countries, connect some of the dots to shed light on why those processes are occurring, and identify the agents of change. Content will draw on the extensive knowledge and contacts of RFE/RL's Central Asian services but also allow scholars in the West, particularly younger scholars who will be tomorrow’s experts on the region, opportunities to share their views on the evolving situation at this Eurasian crossroad. The name means "Village Voice" in Uzbek. But don't be fooled, Qishloq Ovozi is about all of Central Asia.

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