Thursday, November 20, 2014


The Power Vertical

Vladimir The Weak

Vladimir Putin clearly likes to keep an eye on his enemies. Perhaps he should be taking a closer look at his friends.
 
Consider, for example, Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov.
 
The KGB veteran was widely considered the odds-on favorite to be Putin's successor back in 2007 until he was passed over for the more pliant Dmitry Medvedev. Now Kremlin-watchers say he is gearing up for another round.
 
"Ivanov wants the throne," Moscow-based political analyst Vladimir Pribylovsky wrote on his blog recently.
 
And the first step of "Project President Ivanov" is to get Medvedev sacked as prime minister and Ivanov appointed to that post. And toward this end, Pribylovsky writes, Ivanov and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin have launched a stealth campaign against Medvedev and his close allies.

The main targets have included Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, Medvedev press secretary Natalya Timakova and her husband, Aleksandr Budberg, and others.
 
The main medium has been a series of online films released on YouTube, Live Journal, Twitter, and Facebook under the label "politmovies," accusing Medvedev's allies of corruption and of collusion with opposition figures like Aleksei Navalny.
 
According to the daily "Nezavisimaya gazeta," the campaign, which is aimed more at elite opinion than the general public, has already cost Budberg his job as an adviser to the president of the state-owned bank VTB.

"According to legend, in the spring of 2007 Vladimir Putin promised Ivanov that he would be his successor and the next head of state. But it did not work out," political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky wrote recently in "Sobesednik."  "Since becoming Putin's chief of staff, Ivanov has now decided to fight back."

It's not clear how successful Ivanov's campaign will be. But such succession maneuverings, which have been going on for months, are a signal that people in the elite's upper echelons are already thinking about -- and planning for -- life after Putin.
 
If this continues, and it is showing no signs of abating, it could quickly turn Putin into a lame duck. At the very least, it makes him look weak by comparison to the figure who towered over Russian politics from 2000-08.

The campaign to sack Medvedev is just one area where the siloviki wing of the elite is attempting to push the advantage it gained when Putin -- spooked by the protests that accompanied his return to the Kremlin -- threw his lot in with them and shunned technocrats seeking political reforms.

In essence, when Putin abandoned his traditional role as arbiter among Kremlin clans and sided with the most hard-line elements, he also became their prisoner.

Another area where the siloviki seem to be pushing Putin where he doesn't want to go is in the corruption case against former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov.

In this case, according to analysts, it is an alliance joining Ivanov together with Sergei Chemezov, head of the state-controlled, defense-procurement conglomerate Russian Technologies, and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin.

In the eyes of this cabal, Serdyukov's sins are many. As defense minister, he sought to purchase foreign armaments, angering Chemezov and Rogozin, who have an institutional (if not financial) interest in domestic arms procurements. His proposed reforms of the armed forces would have reduced the size of the officer corps.

And perhaps most significantly, he appeared to favor Medvedev staying in the Kremlin for a second term.

The 3 billion ruble ($95 million) defense-procurement scandal that cost him his job was, no doubt, easy for his enemies to dig up. Any Russian official at his level is bound to have plenty of skeletons in his closet.

In a recent interview with RFE/RL's Russian Service, military analyst Aleksandr Golts noted that Serdyukov "led the life of any of Putin's high-ranking nobles and his sins can also be attributed to anybody else in the president's entourage."

Golts added, however, that Putin does not appear to favor prosecuting Serdyukov.
 
"I don't have the impression that Putin is behind this case," Golts said. "Several times he has given signals to the effect that the case against Serdyukov should be stopped. But the way things are at this stage, the warring bureaucratic clans don't feel the need to listen to the supreme leader."

How the case turns out, Golts adds, will be a barometer of how much control Putin has over his courtiers.

"The Serdyukov story shows how dramatically the rules of the game have changed in the upper echelons of the state," he said.

And the new rules seem to indicate that Putin is losing the mojo that came with being the elite's indispensable arbiter.

-- Brian Whitmore

Tags: Vladimir Putin,Dmitry Medvedev,Anatoly Serdyukov,Sergei Ivanov

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Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Babeouf from: Ireland
March 18, 2013 20:45
Well I'm amazed because I thought Putin a dead cert for a fourth term as President. After he finished the third. Now I discover that his end is nigh ,according to the latest reports from the world of wishful thinking. In the real world people are considering whether he will be President when he's seventy one.

by: Konstantin from: Los Angeles
March 19, 2013 02:42
Article testing-provoking the trivial - place of the military.
Since late USSR, when army turned on people and nations,
Budapest and Tbilisi in 1956, it isn't trivial anymore.
Article doesn't question secret pact of 1954-56, when ethnic Russians usurped army and unleashed influx, imperial expansion and genocide - from Hungary and Checks through Afghanistan
and from Chechnya through Abkhazia.
Article questions, beside intrigues and rumors, the triviality of
Army of one of two superpowers being geo-strategically conservative.
Is it conservative geo-strategically?
That is the problem - army supports despotic Varaga-Prussaka
To breed-out instead of other nations in former USSR space and
Eastern Europe, also being corrupted in their nazi GRU games,
while being beyond approach geo-strategically.
So, Russia and its army have it both ways:
"rybku s'est' i na penechek sest..."

In Response

by: Konstantin from: Los Angeles
March 20, 2013 05:22
PS:

The same one might say about "NATO" defense measures,
installed in Poland and some other Eastern Europe countries.

I would wish Russia wouldn't threaten its neighbors with
invasions, genocides, influx, enslavement and, in long run,
repopulation by ethnic Russian Varaga-Prussaka and alike,
Just as they did during Russian Empire and former USSR
and still occupying and squeezing their neighbors,
waiting for more, "D" day - the day of the devil.

It would be easier for everybody if Russia would repent, return everything, pay for its deeds fairly, sign international treaties
with neighbors, UN and international community, to make it legal and obligatory.
Than neighbors wouldn't Ask for help and "NATO" wouldn't have to help.

However, the only things we still hear from Russia is expansion,
at least to ever maximum borders of their "Empire" and beyond.
However, it is what Russia hungers for - to breed to 50 billions -
starting with enslaving neighboring nations, kill third, die another
third in slave camps, plagiarize-exploit the best third in Ghettoes,
gasing at them with nerve gas "Cheremushka" smaller doses
and breed Russians in their land and property.

by: Robert from: Prague
March 19, 2013 08:10
Isn't it way too early to be jockeying to replace Putin, even if he doesn't go for a fourth term? Russia's recent past shows that anyone seen as a front-runner this early in the process is sure to be shot down by the time the choice needs to be made. Seems to me very dangerous to become prime minister now.

by: Mamuka
March 19, 2013 11:18
Reports of the demise of Vladimir Vladimirovich may be greatly exaggerated. He is still The Big Dog and controls most of the levers of power, at least more than anyone else. Certainly people are thinking about life after Putin but he is not going anywhere in the immediate future.

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16:55 November 19, 2014

MORE ON THE SOURCES OF RUSSIAN ANTI-AMERICANISM

Konstantin Eggert has a commentary in "Kommersant" on Russia's anti-Americanism. He opens like this:

"Sometimes I have this feeling that there are only two countries in the world - Russia and the United States. Of course, there is Ukraine, but it either to join us or the Americas. Russian politicians and state television are constantly in search of the 'American hand' in all spheres of our life. In Soviet times, the United States was formally considered to be our number one military and ideological enemy. But even then it didn't occupy such a large space in the minds of the political leadership and citizens. And the paradox is that, on one hand, officials and the media regularly talk about the decline of America as a great power, and on the other declare it to be the source of all evil in the world. This contradiction does not seem to disturb anybody."

And closes like this:

We still have not been able to use the opportunity that we were given with the collapse of the communist regime - to arrange our lives based on liberty and civic virtue. And today, we, as a people, want to go back to the starting point, to beat everyone. And the Soviet Union, with its absence of sausage and freedom, again suddenly seems sweet and dear. But it won't happen. I will put it banally: you can't go into the same river twice.

Read the whole thing here (in Russian, with audio)

15:53 November 19, 2014

UNDERSTANDING THE INFORMATION WAR

MIchael Weiss, editor-in-chief of The Interpreter magazine, appearing on Hromadske TV to talk about Russia's information war.

Michael and Peter Pomarantsev recently co-authored an excellent report "The Menace of Unreality: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture, and Money." Both also appeared recently on The Power Vertical Podcast to discuss the report.

15:42 November 19, 2014

WHY IS PUTIN PICKING A FIGHT WITH THE U.S.?

Oleg Kosyrev has a snarky and clever blog post on the subject up on the Ekho Moskvy website. 

1) The United States is the ideal opponent. "It is big and strong and your self-esteem increases when you fight somebody really influential."

2) The United States is not fighting with Russia. "They aren't really interested. They have enough of their own problems and dreams. It's nice to fight somebody who is not fighting you."

3) It is a substitute for the authorities' inability to benefit Russians. "How convenient. Who is to blame for rising food and gas prices? The U.S.A.. Who is to blame for the fact that Russian has political prisoners? The U.S.A. Who is to blame for people demonstrating on the streets? The U.S.A. Who is to blame for the fact that independent international courts denounce the Russian court system? The U.S.A. You can even blame the U.S. for the fact that the light doesn't work in the entrance to your apartment building."

Read it all (in Russian) here.

15:23 November 19, 2014

UKRAINE SAYS MHI7 SHOT DOWN BY RUSSIAN CREW

14:47 November 19, 2014

AFTERNOON NEWS ROUNDUP: THE SEQUEL

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

KYIV, WEST SAY RUSSIA CANNOT BAR UKRAINE FROM NATO

Ukraine says it will not tolerate pressure from any other country over whether or not it seeks to join NATO.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyynis spoke made the remark to reporters in Kyiv on November 19, after the BBC quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying in an interview that Moscow wants "a 100 percent guarantee that no-one would think about Ukraine joining NATO."

Hitting back with a reference to Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Perebyynis said Kyiv would like guarantees that Moscow will not interfere in Ukraine's internal affairs, send in troops, or annex Ukrainian territories. 

The U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, told journalists on November 19 that any decision on seeking to join NATO could be made only by the Ukrainian people, not by Russia, Europe, ar the United States.

The Canadian Ambassador to Ukraine, Roman Waschuk, made a similar statement on November 19.

(Based on reporting by UNIAN and Interfax)

PUTIN TELLS U.S. ENVOY TIES MUST BE BASED ON EQUALITY

President Vladimir Putin says that Russia is ready for cooperation with the United States as long as Washington treats Moscow as an equal, respect its interests, and refrains from interfering in its affairs.

Putin spoke November 19 at a Kremlin ceremony during which he received the credentials of foreign envoys including John Tefft, the new U.S. Ambassador to Moscow.

Putin said, "We are ready for practical cooperation with our American partners in various fields, based on the principles of respect for each other's interests, equal rights and non-interference in internal matters." 

The remark echoed a formula Putin set out in a foreign policy decree at the start of his third term in 2012.

Tefft, 64, is a career diplomat who previously served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Georgia and Lithuania. 

His posting starts at a time when ties are badly strained over the Ukraine crisis. 

Tefft replaces Michael McFaul, who was ambassador from January 2012 until February 2014. 

(Based on reporting by Reuters and TASS)

RUSSIA SAYS 2010 NUCLEAR ARMS PACT STILL IN RUSSIA'S INTERESTS

By RFE/RL

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has signaled that a landmark nuclear arms treaty with the United States is not in jeopardy despite severe tension over Ukraine.

Speaking to Russian lawmakers on November 19, Lavrov said the 2010 New START treaty "meets our basic strategic interests and, on condition of its observance by the United States, we are interested in its full implementation."

The treaty, one of the main products of President Barack Obama's first-term "reset" of ties with Russia, requires Russia and the United States to have their long-range nuclear arsenals under specific ceilings by 2018.

But Lavrov said the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, which President Vladimir Putin suspended in 2007, is "dead" for Moscow. 

NATO has refused to ratify a revised version of the CFE treaty without a full withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova and Georgia.

12:45 November 19, 2014

AFTERNOON NEWS ROUNDUP

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

RUSSIA BLAMES WEST FOR UKRAINE CRISIS

By RFE/RL

Russia has lashed out at the United States and European Union over Ukraine, saying the conflict there is the product of what Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called 25 years of selfish Western expansionism.

Addressing Russia's lower parliament house on November 19, Lavrov said the West "must support the process of mutually acceptable agreements instead of supporting the party of war in Kyiv, closing its eyes on outrageous human rights violations, lawlessness, and war crimes." 

Lavrov repeated Moscow's denials of involvement in an armed conflict between government forces and pro-Russian separatists that has killed more than 4,100 combatants and civilians since April.

He said the conflict is an internal issue for Ukraine and "all attempts to turn Russia into a party to the conflict are counterproductive and have no chance of success."

His address to the State Duma, which was broadcast live on state television, appeared aimed to assure Russians that the Kremlin is in the right and fend off growing Western accusations of direct Russian military support for the separatists, who hold large parts of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk provinces.

"The Ukraine crisis is a consequence of the policy Western states have pursued for a quarter-century of strengthening their own security at the expense of the security of others and broadening the geopolitical space under their control."

It came a day after President Vladimir Putin, who has used anti-Western words and actions to strengthen his grip on the country, said that the United States wants to "subordinate" Russia to itself and "solve its problems at our expense." 

Lavrov tempered the anti-Western message by saying that there is no alternative to cooperation between Russia and the European Union, long its biggest trade partner.
 
But he blamed the EU for the strains and said Russia's relations with the West must be based on the assumption of equality, echoing a demand Putin set out in a foreign policy decree at the start of his third term in 2012.

"Russia's constructive course toward integration is running up against the desire of the United States and its allies to divide and rule, to push their tactical plans."

Russia banned a broad range of food imports from the EU and the United States in August in retaliation for sanctions they imposed on Russia over the Ukraine crisis.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has raised fears among Russia's neighbors that it could seek control of more territory, and has brought Moscow's relations with the West to post-Cold War lows.

Ties had already been badly damaged by Russia's annexation of Crimea in March, which followed the flight of a Russian-backed president from Ukraine after months of protests over his November decision to spurn a political and economic pact with the European Union and turn toward Moscow instead.

Kyiv and the West accuse Russia of sending weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine to aid the separatists, who consolidated their hold on parts of eastern Ukraine's industrial Donbas region with November 2 elections denounced by Ukraine, the United States, and the EU as illegal.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said on November 18 that there had been a "serious military buildup" both in eastern Ukraine and on the Russian side of the border, and urged Moscow to pull back its forces.

Kyiv and Western governments are concerned that Putin may want pro-Russian separatists to seize more ground in Ukraine or solidify control over the territory they hold, creating a "frozen conflict" that could destabilize the country, drain its economy, and crimp its pro-Western government for years.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who met with both Putin and Lavrov in Moscow on November 18 after talks in Kyiv, said during his visit that he saw "no grounds for optimism in the current situation."

Steinmeier warned of a "dangerous situation developing" in Ukraine and appealed to all sides to stick to an agreement signed in Minsk on September 5 on a cease-fire and steps toward peace.

The cease-fire is violated daily, but Steinmeier said the Minsk accord must not be abandoned and called for the swift completion of a plan for the "disengagement" of the conflicting sides.

RUSSIA WILL NOT PUSH 'ALLIES' ON CRIMEA RECOGNITION

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow will not pressure its "allies" to recognize Crimea as a part of Russia or to join it in recopgnizing Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions as independent states.

In a question-and-answer session following an address to Russia's lower parliament house on November 19, Lavrov said the security and economic groupings that Russia is currently building with other former Soviet republics are aimed to "protect the legitimate interests of our countries' security."

He said that "on some issues, including the status of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, or Crimean history, we are not making our partners share our assessments 100 percent, as we do not want to put them into an awkward position if for some reason it is uncomfortable for them."

The remarks appeared aimed to assuage concerns among ex-Soviet republics that Russia, which annexed Crimea in March in a move that Kyiv and the West say was illegal, wants to diminish their sovereignty or control their foreign policy.

10:09 November 19, 2014

A SCENE FROM LUHANSK

10:04 November 19, 2014

MORNING NEWS UPDATE

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

LAVROV ADDRESSING STATE DUMA ON UKRAINE

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to focus on the crisis in eastern Ukraine when he addresses the State Duma on November 19.

Ahead of his speech before Russia's lower house of parliament, Lavrov met with visiting German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Both reportedly agreed on the need to return to the so-called Minsk protocol, a dialogue that involves the warring factions in Ukraine, as well as Russia and the OSCE.

But Steinmeier said he was not optimistic the Minsk protocol could change the situation on the ground in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are battling pro-Russian separatists.

Steinmeier traveled to Moscow from Kyiv where President Petro Poroshenko told him Russia had failed to uphold a September 5 cease-fire agreement.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on November 18 accused Russia of a "serious military build-up" both inside eastern Ukraine and on the Russian side of the border.

(Based on reporting by Tass and Reuters)

A Russian journalist who runs an online support group for LGBT teenagers is to be charged under the country's controversial law on promoting "gay propaganda" to minors.

LGBT TEEN SUPPORT GROUP TO BE CHARGED IN RUSSIA

Russia's media watchdog said it had received more than 150 complaints from "citizens and organizations" about Deti-404 (Children-404), which was founded and is run by Yelena Klimova.

The number "404" refers to the "page not found" error code in Internet searches.

Roskomnadzor did not specify what on the project's pages constituted "gay propaganda," and suggested Klimova was not fit to counsel LGBT teenagers.

Klimova slammed the country's "gay propaganda" law, and accused authorities of failing to provide support to LGBT teenagers in a country where homophobia is widespread.

"If those 'problems' should be handled by 'professionals' … and not amateurs like myself, then where are they?" she said on her LiveJournal page.

(Based on reporting by the Moscow Times and the Calvert Journal)

EKHO MOSKVY EDITOR WANTS TO BUY STATION

The chief editor of the "Ekho Moskvy" radio station Aleksei Venediktov has said he was preparing to make an offer to purchase the embattled station.

Venediktov met on November 18 with Mikhail Lesin, the chairman of board of directors of the state-controlled entertainment giant Gazprom Media, the owner of Ekho Moskvy.

Venediktov told journalists he would have a proposal for purchasing the station "before the end of the current year."

Lesin said a verbal offer had already been made but he did not disclose any details.

Lesin on November 14 called for a vote of Ekho Moskvy's board of directors that could determine the future of one of the last independent media outlets in Russia.

The absentee voting by the board of directors, set for November 21, will determine the editor-in-chief of the station, the staff and the format of the broadcasting.

(Based on reporting by Interfax and TASS)

RUSSIAN, GERMAN FMs DISCUSS UKRAINE CRISIS

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier flew from Kyiv to Moscow and met with his Russian counterpart during the evening of November 18.

Steinmeier and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed the deteriorating situation in Ukraine.

Both reportedly agreed on the need to return to the so-called Minsk protocol, a dialogue that involves the warring factions in Ukraine, as well as Russia and the OSCE.

Steinmeier said he did not "see reasons for optimism" that the Minsk protocol could achieve a breakthrough on the ground in eastern Ukraine where more than 4,000 people have been killed in fighting since March.

But he said "it would be a huge loss" to abandon the protocol at this time.

Steinmeier and Lavrov also called on Kyiv and the separatist leadership in Donetsk and Luhansk regions to start direct talks aiming at pulling their military forces back.

(Based on reporting by Interfax, TASS, and Reuters)

PUTIN SAYS U.S. WANTS RUSSIA 'UNDER ITS INFLUENCE'

President Vladimir Putin has said he does not believe the United States wants to humiliate Russia but does want Russia to be under Washington's influence.

Putin was responding to a question at the Action Forum sponsored by the All-Russia Popular Front political movement, a core Kremlin support group, on November 18.

He said the United States does not "want to humiliate us, but they want to bring us into subjugation, they want to resolve their problems at our expense, and to get us under their influence."

Putin added, "Nobody has ever been able to do so in Russian history and nobody ever will."

(Based on reporting by Interfax and Reuters)

09:56 November 19, 2014

LAVROV STATES THE OBVIOUS -- MAKES IT SOUND OMINOUS

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says the Ukraine crisis is the result of what he calls 25 years of efforts by Western countries to strengthen their own security at the expense of others.
(Live broadcast, RIA Novosti) 

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The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It covers emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or