Saturday, November 01, 2014


The Power Vertical

Why Navalny Is Winning

Vladimir Putin submerging into the depths in a submarine. Aleksei Navalny being greeted by an adoring crowd as he triumphantly returned to Moscow.

Something old, something new.

The two images bookended what was a remarkable -- and highly consequential -- week in Russia. As the Navalny saga was unfolding -- from his conviction and detention, to the street protests that followed and his subsequent release and arrival at Moscow's Yaroslavl railway station -- Putin was largely invisible, save for one of his tired old macho photo-ops.

And even with that, someone in the Kremlin clearly forgot to think through the optics. "The long descent begins," one Twitter user wrote, in reference to a photo of Putin's submarine stunt. 

Optics are, indeed, important and Navalny clearly won last week's image war.

Inevitable comparisons have already been made between the heroe's welcome he received in Moscow on July 20 to that of Andrei Sakharov when he arrived at the very same train station in December 1986. And some have compared Navalny's fiery comments to supporters with Soviet founder Vladimir Lenin's famous speech upon returning from exile at Finland Station in Petrograd in April 1917.

Navalny, of course, isn't Sakharov -- and he certainly isn't Lenin. But 2013 is beginning to have the feel of a time, like the early 20th century or the late 1980s and early 90s, when the tectonic plates of Russian politics are shifting. And Navalny is quickly assuming the role of the figure in tune with the new zeitgeist who is able to ride the turbulent wave to a new political epoch.

Checkers, Chess, And Pumpkins

In an interview with the daily "Moskovsky komsomolets" just days before his conviction, Navalny said that if he wins the Moscow mayorship, "Putin's regime will turn into a pumpkin."

And he is right. There is no office in Russia save the presidency with so much power and independence as mayor of the capital. Which is why the authorities will never allow Navalny -- or any opposition figure for that matter -- to come close to winning it.

Indeed, as soon as Navalny was released on July 19, after less than a day in jail, the theories of a dark Kremlin conspiracy appeared. The authorities needed him in the September 8 Moscow mayoral election. Otherwise, Kremlin-backed incumbent Sergei Sobyanin's inevitable victory would appear illegitimate. As soon as Navalny has fulfilled this purpose, they'll imprison him again.

This is probably true, but it misses the point about what is going on right now. Navalny is playing chess and the Kremlin, it appears, is playing checkers -- and playing quite poorly at that.

Despite the rhetoric in his fledgling election campaign, Navalny knows he has little chance of winning the Moscow mayorship. But Navalny's long game is not about winning an election inside the confines of the Putin system. It is to erode, wear down, and ultimately replace that system by patiently and efficiently chipping away at the monolith -- attacking its weak points, building up his street cred, and expanding his base of support in the process.

The events of the past week advanced that goal considerably. The Kremlin has just given him the aura of a martyr, and he only had to spend one night in a holding cell to get it.

And the opportunity Navalny has now to openly campaign in Moscow -- which means rallies that will no doubt draw big crowds and television appearances that will boost his name recognition -- will advance it further still, even in defeat.

Navalny's July 19 release, after being convicted the previous day on what are widely seen as trumped-up embezzlement charges, marked the second time in just over a week that he was taken into custody and then set free to make a made-for-YouTube speech. 

Several prominent Russian lawyers have noted that the prosecutor's decision to take a reverse step and free such a high-profile prisoner pending appeal was unprecedented.

And if Navalny performs reasonably well in the Moscow election and expands his base of support, it will be harder still -- and costlier still -- for the authorities to incarcerate him yet again.

'We Are Citizens!'

One of the most poignant moments of Navalny's speech upon arrival in Moscow wasn't even spoken by Navalny. It came from the crowd in response to him.

"You have destroyed the main privilege that the Kremlin has claimed -- its alleged right to arrest anyone in court and cause that person to disappear," Navalny said as he thanked his supporters for taking to the streets after his sentencing.

"It's because of you that we were released the next day. Thank you! We are a huge mighty force and I am glad that we are realizing this and I am glad to be one with you."

"We are citizens!" came a single -- and clearly audible -- voice from the crowd.

WATCH: Navalny's arrival in Moscow after his release (in Russian):
Алексея Навального встречают на Ярославском вокзалеi
X
July 20, 2013
Сотни сторонников встречали Алексея Навального и Петра Офицерова на Ярославском вокзале в Москве. Навальный обратился к собравшимся с короткой речью, поблагодарил их за поддержку и сказал, что он оказался на свободе только потому, что после приговора люди вышли на улицы.

Which gets to the heart of why Navalny is winning his long battle with a Kremlin that doesn't quite know what to do with him.

"Navalny showed Russians how not to be afraid," Julia Iofe wrote in a recent article in "The New Republic."

Estimates varied on how many people took to the streets of Moscow (as well as other cities) on the night of July 18-19 in support of Navalny. Police said 2,500 came out in the capital, the opposition said 10,000, and journalists more or less split the difference and said 5,000.

In fact, it was a hard crowd to count because it so diffuse, fanning out around the center of Moscow -- and even up the walls and onto the ledge of the State Duma. 

But the point wasn't the numbers. It was the intensity and the bravery of people who were willing to take to the streets for an unsanctioned protest amid a heavy police presence in full expectation of a crackdown -- albeit one that didn't materialize.

Navalny has indeed shown Russians how not to be afraid.

This was also on display on the morning of July 20, when police, in a lame attempt to clear the crowd from Yaroslavl Station, warned of a bomb threat. "Ooh, a bomb. We're really frightened," one man mockingly told a police officer

Navalny, of course, probably wasn't freed due to pressure from the streets. As Gazeta.ru recently pointed out, deep splits in the elite over how to handle him -- and the ongoing political crisis -- go a long way toward explaining the Kremlin's vacillation.

But optics do matter. And as my co-host Mark Galeotti of New York University pointed out in the most recent "Power Vertical Podcast," Navalny can now claim that it was because of the power of the "Russian street" that he was set free. And just as importantly, his growing cadre of supporters believe this to be the case.

-- Brian Whitmore

Tags: Aleksei Navalny

This forum has been closed.
Comment Sorting
Comments
     
by: Ray F. from: Lawrence, KS
July 22, 2013 20:51
Nice post, and perhaps the Russian political ice is beginning to crack. However, the notion that one person, no matter how capable, is going to transform lead Russia into a ‘new political epoch’ might be a bit of wishful thinking. In a fairy-tale world, the righteous and noble Prince Navalny would remove the evil King Putin and everyone would live happily after. I hope I’m wrong, but I see this particular story ending on a more tragic note.

by: Konstantin from: Los Angeles
July 22, 2013 21:07
It is all staged, like "Baron Munhauzen" himself wrote scenario,
Remind the Western World about Sakharov, to be good donkey
And move alone with Russia's play of "Russia will change, I-O",
You got again wig of democracy - like donkey with a monkey.

It never ends for condemned "strana rabov strana skotov",
Russia - a straw of hey before a nose of Western donkey.
Russian themselves need not even that, reminded to bow
Before dictator Lenin and Red Terror master Dzerzhinsky,
With military putting Putin into some military hardware bot.

Why Navalny said Putin regime would turn into a pumpkin,
If elected? Modern Russia, usurping Superpower weapons
Of former USSR is not a pumpkin, it is what Putin's witches
Or orders placed on Navalny made him appear confronting.

Not chess game, if he elected he must consider such reality
Of two Superpowers, but fighting for democracy and legality
Against Russian aggression and breeding in invaded lands.
Let Russia return everything, pay for its crimes and put end
To expand of Empire of Russ-Pruss, annulling other nations.






by: Babeouf from: Ireland
July 22, 2013 21:52
No Navalny can't win elections in Russia because he has no political base there. And almost nobody bothered to demonstrate (140,000,000 approx population of Russia) and that doesn't matter because ' the point wasn't the numbers.'. No what matters is that the Tooth Fairy has guaranteed it will all turn out for the best. Here is an alternative analysis. He was released so he could loose the election for Mayor of Moscow in spectacular style. And having discredited the whole idea of opposition by his inept performance he will then be locked up for four or five years.
In Response

by: Jack from: US
July 23, 2013 13:54
you have to agree, being locked up for four-five years in Russian jail is not as bad as being burned alive by US government in Waco, TX for daring to oppose the same government

by: Jack from: US
July 23, 2013 13:50
still waiting for "Brian Whitmore" to tell everyone when will finally evil "Putin regime" collapse... waiting and waiting .. while US government keeps winning and winning, in Afghanistan (like it won in Iraq), in Syria, in Egypt..
In Response

by: Anonymous
July 24, 2013 13:08
Still waiting for "Jack" to tell us when he will stop repeating the same things and actually show evidence of some critical thought... I won't hold my breath though.

Of course you don't like what he says. And indeed he's too much of an optimist for your taste. (And in some sense, even for mine -- I think the future of Russia is more likely to be darker than Mr Whitmore thinks.) But that you complain about him having an opinion and expressing it... that is indeed funny. Especially since the exact same comment (with reversed polarity) so wonderfully describes your own beliefs!... Ah, if only people looked in mirrors before condemning the appearance of others...

by: La Russophobe from: USA
July 23, 2013 18:17
"But the point wasn't the numbers. It was the intensity and the bravery of people who were willing to take to the streets for an unsanctioned protest amid a heavy police presence in full expectation of a crackdown -- albeit one that didn't materialize. Navalny has indeed shown Russians how not to be afraid."

This simply isn't true. Navalny invited over 50,000 to go to the streets on Facebook and 47,000 of them (no way was there more than 3,000 on the street) WERE afraid and did not show up.

It's pretty hard to see how a man who is going to spend five years in jail for a crime he did not commit is "winning" when he has such a pathetic level of popular support even in his own home town. And let's not forget that there are THREE more sets of charges coming at Navlany, which could keep him in prison as long as Khodorkovsky or longer.

I certainly agree with you that IF Navlany gets over 15% of the vote the Kremlin will have miscalculated and created a Frankenstein. But WHEN he gets less than half that, the Kremlin will have destroyed Navalny's political credibility and legitimized both the Sobyanin administration and the Navalny prosecution all at one shot.

Navalny is not winning, that is wishful thinking and cheerleading of the same kind we saw when Navalny's street demonstrations began. Some thought they would grow, but they shrank and disappeared. No political change of any kind was achieved.

The Kremlin is winning. And imagining otherwise only helps the Kremlin.
In Response

by: Asehpe from: the Netherlands
July 24, 2013 13:12
Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see WHEN the 'when' becomes now and stops being written in all caps. At that moment perhaps we'll see if you're right or wrong.

You say this about Brian, but then again, you are also a foreign analyst opining on Russia. If you happened to be wrong, you wouldn't be the first foreign analyst to be wrong about Russia...

Let's wait and see. And then we'll talk.
In Response

by: La Russophobe from: USA
July 26, 2013 21:50
No. I said, loud and clear and often, from the beginning, that the street protests were an illusion, would change nothing and would disappear. I was proved right, and those like Julia Ioffe who said otherwise were proved wrong. Where was your "talk" then?

You are nothing but hot air and moving goal posts. The longer we wait to see who Navalny really is, the stronger Putin becomes and the weaker the opposition.

by: Anonymous
July 24, 2013 16:48
Can we PLEASE get past the Western wet dream about Navalny (I mean seriously, Brian is SHOCKED that his wife is an intelligent woman. Newsflash, most men marry their equals and wouldn't you be far more surprised if Navalny, especially given his longstanding political ambitions, chose to spend his life and have children with a moron. Can the wives of the 4 podcasters not also form a sentence? Do they not also share your interests?), but I digress.

The real story here isn't Navalny, although he does expose some interesting cracks in the elite, it's Sobyanin. Sobyanin is the one who, by insisting on Navalny's inclusion is pushing for an (exceedingly rare) fair fight. Sobyanin is the one who wants a clean election so he can have a true mandate. He's in essence looking for the legitimacy that Putin lost in 2012. He will be one of the only, if not the only, Russian politician who can claim a true mandate from the people, giving him real power/legitimacy outside of Putin and his system (although he certainly has it inside the system too. That's how he got to be mayor in the first place after all.) Now I wonder what he plans to do with that power.... He's fought too hard to make this election real not to have some serious plans for it.

THAT is the story here, especially given that Russian leaders, Lenin being the big exception, overwhelmingly come from WITHIN the system, not the outside. If you were an elite casting about for an alternative to Putin, whose time has clearly past, a trusted, known pair of hands such as Sobyanin's (bearing in mind that popular consent on some level is necessary for continuing to rob the people blind) who has shown popular likeability and electability would look very attractive as the next in line...

BTW, András Tóth-Czifra also does an excellent job making this point here. http://www.noyardstick.com/?author=1 If the goal is to forecast the next leader of Russia, it makes far more sense to focus on people who have a legitimate shot at the job, vs. the no-hopers don't you think?
In Response

by: Brian Whitmore from: Prague
July 25, 2013 06:58
Dear "Anonymous" (interesting that somebody so opinionated is afraid to post them under his/her real name),
Nobody on the July 19 podcast -- not me, not Mark, not Kirill, not Sean -- was "shocked," as you put it, about the intelligence Ms. Navalnaya exhibited in her interview on Dozhd TV in April or the poise she showed outside the courtroom on July 18. We were simply noting that if he were incarcerated she would probably assume a higher public profile -- and the only interview with her any of us has seen indicates that she is more than capable of doing so. That's all. And none of us was "shocked" by this. Quite the contrary. So please don't distort our words to fit whatever agenda you may have.
Second, "the goal" of this blog/podcast is not to "forecast the next leader of Russia." If that is what you are interested in, I would suggest you look elsewhere. The goal is to understand the dynamics of Russian politics -- both inside the elite and in the broader society. If you don't think Navalny is relevant to that (regardless of what you may think of him), then we haven't been observing the same Russia for the past several years.
Respectfully,
Brian Whitmore

by: Kyle from: Champaign, IL
July 26, 2013 17:57
I certainly understand the popular press's being charmed with Navalny. He is a young, brash, and outspoken Russian citizen who, as opposed to many other critics of Russia, has decided to stay within the country (well, at this point obviously less of a conscious decision...) and challenge the Putin regime from within. And there is no doubt that his story and rhetoric are inspiring and serve as a rallying point around which those already critical of the regime, but previously unwilling to do anything about it, may mobilize. This serves an important function in of itself.

However, huge questions remain about what Navalny is in fact all about. To begin with, outside of serving as a powerful symbol of resistance to the regime, is there any reason to believe that Navalny would be a positive addition to Russia's governing elite? He has almost no experience with institutionalized politics, and the experience that he has had has been within a regime in which these institutions are either or both tarnished and ignored.

Additionally, and as Mr. Whitmore and the more popular Western media organizations (NY Times, etc.) have largely failed to mention, the political following Navalny has gathered is not necessarily a group of the most liberal-minded folks. Instead, many of Navalny's followers are fairly hard-core Russian nationalists who, at the least, support policies discriminating against Central Asian migrants, and at worst participate in violence against members of these groups. Let us just be clear that his charismatic rhetoric was not honed through calls for liberal democracy--it was not until fairly recently that this came about.

Last note: does anybody else remember a relatively young, brash, and outspoken Russian man who rose from relative anonymity to popular acclaim in the last decade and a half? Two in the last 25 years if you can remember back that far. Just a thought--maybe we should stop trying to convince ourselves that "It will be different this time..."

by: Ben
August 02, 2013 12:46
Anonymous.Sobyanin`s independensy and bravery are dubious,because Navalny`s liberation after the trial is in Kremlin`s competence.

The Power Vertical Feed

In this space, I will regularly comment on events in Russia, repost content and tweets I find interesting and informative, and shamelessly promote myself (and others, whose work I like). The traditional Power Vertical Blog remains for larger and more developed items. The Podcast, of course, will continue to appear every Friday. I hope you find the new Power Vertical Feed to be a useful resource and welcome your feedback. More

18:26 October 31, 2014

EVENING NEWS ROUNDUP

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

EUROPE PRAISES GAS DEAL, PRESSES RUSSIA ON REBEL VOTES

By RFE/RL

European leaders have welcomed a deal under which Russia is to restore natural-gas supplies to Ukraine but told Vladimir Putin that elections held by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine on November 2 will be illegitimate.

Russian President Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and French President Francois Hollande spoke in a four-way telephone conversation overnight after Ukraine and Russia sealed a deal meant to guarantee Russian gas supplies to Ukraine through March 2015.

All four leaders welcomed the gas deal signed late on October 30 in Brussels, a German government spokesperson said, and a Kremlin statement called the agreement "an important step in the context of the future provision of uninterrupted transit of gas to Europe."

But a statement from Poroshenko's office said "Ukraine, Germany and France expressed (the) clear common position that they would not recognize the elections planned by separatists."

It said the elections on rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions would contradict an agreement reached in Minsk on September 5 and aimed to end the conflict between Kyiv and the pro-Russian rebels, which has killed more than 3,700 people since April and poisoned East-West ties.

It said Poroshenko, Merkel, and Hollande "urged Russia not to recognize those elections as well."

Merkel's spokesman, Georg Streiter, said that "Merkel and Hollande underlined that there can only be a ballot in line with Ukrainian law."

He said the votes would violate the Minsk agreement and further complicate efforts to find a solution to the crisis in eastern Ukraine.

"The German government will not recognize these illegitimate elections," Streiter told a news conference, adding that European leaders were united on this issue and had agreed on this at a summit last week in Brussels.

Moscow has made no formal recognition of the "people's republics" the separatists have proclaimed in Donetsk and Luhansk, and the Kremlin denies involvement in the conflict despite what Kyiv and NATO say is clear evidence that Russia has sent troops and weapons into Ukraine to help the separatists.

But in comments published on October 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would "of course recognize the results" of the separatists' elections.

The Kremlin statement about the telephone conversation made no mention of the elections.

It also said the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the implementation the September 5 agreement, and underscored the need to observe the cease-fire that was central to the Minsk deal.

The Kremlin said Russia believes the "the establishment of a steady dialogue" between Kyiv and the separatists would "undoubtedly" help stabilize the situation.

Kremlin critics say Russia supported the September 5 agreement because it followed rebel gains that left the separatists in control over large portions of Donetsk and Luhansk, potentially giving Moscow a lever of influence on Ukraine for years to come.

The November 2 balloting in the rebel-held regions comes a week after those areas stayed out of voting in in Ukraine's parliamentary election on October 26, in which pro-Western parties won a sweeping victory.

Poroshenko proposed on October 31 that Arseniy Yatsenyuk stay on as prime minister.

"I have proposed that the Petro Poroshenko Bloc put forward Arseniy Yatsenyuk to the post of prime minister," Poroshenko wrote on Twitter.

Yatsenyuk's People's Front party narrowly beat out the Petro Poroshenko Bloc in voting by party in the October 26 election, according to a nearly complete count.

But Poroshenko's bloc fared better in first-past-the-post voting and was positioned to take more parliament seats than the People's Front, according to election commission data.

Yatsenyuk is a vocal critic of Russia and is popular among Western governments for his support for economic reforms.

He is a target of criticism from Russian officials who say the  government that came to power in Ukraine after former president Viktor Yanukovych fled in February in the face of protests seized control in an illegal coup d'etat supported by the West.

Russia annexed the Crimea region from Ukraine in March, adding to tension that increased still further when the conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted the following month.

The hard-fought gas deal provided what European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger called "perhaps the first glimmer of a relaxation" between Ukraine and Russia.

Russia had raised the price it was asking Kyiv pay for gas after Yanukovych's ouster and then stopped supplying gas to Ukraine in June, citing what it said was $5.3 billion in debt and demanding advance payment for any future supplies.

Oettinger said that under the accord, Ukraine will pay Russia $1.45 billion in gas arrears within "days" for Moscow to resume gas deliveries.

He said Russia will then "immediately" lower Ukraine's gas price by 100 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters.

Yatsenyuk, in figures later confirmed by Moscow, said Ukraine would pay $378 per 1,000 cubic meters until the end of 2014 and $365 in the first quarter of 2015.

Kyiv will subsequently have access to Russian gas deliveries in exchange for pre-payment, according to Oettinger.

He said Ukraine also agreed to settle another $1.65 billion in arrears by the end of the year.

The deal is expected to include EU funding to help Ukraine pay.

Oettinger said, "we can guarantee a security of supply over the winter," not only for Ukraine but also for the EU nations closest to the region.

Ukraine normally relies on Russia for about the half the gas it uses, and the onset of winter made the need for a deal more urgent.

Russia also provides about one-third of the gas consumed in the European Union, with about half of that pumped via Ukraine.

The EU was seeking to avoid a repeat of 2006 and 2009, when Russia halted supplies to Ukraine amid price disputes, disrupting deliveries to Europe during two cold winters.

News of the agreement appeared to bring relief in Europe, with British wholesale gas prices for November and December falling to their lowest ever levels on October 31.

(With reporting by Reuters, AP, and AFP)

RUSSIA EXTENDS DETENTION OF ESTONIAN POLICE OFFICER

A Moscow court has extended by two months the detention of an Estonian police officer charged with espionage.

Lefortovo Court spokesperson Yulia Sotnikova said on October 31 that a judge had "granted a request from investigators to prolong the period of detention until January 5" of Eston Kohver.

Kohver was detained on September 5 on espionage charges.

Moscow claims Kohver was seized inside Russia, while Estonian officials say he was captured at gunpoint in Estonia near the border.

The case has strained relations between Russia and Estonia.

The European Union and United States have called for the immediate release of the Estonian security official.

(Based on reporting by Interfax and TASS)

EU FILES WTO TRADE COMPLAINT AGAINST RUSSIA

The European Union has launched a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Russian import duties on some European agricultural and manufactured goods.

The Geneva-based international arbitration body said on October 31 that the EU accuses Russia of levying tariffs on several types of goods that are above the legally binding tariff ceilings that Moscow has agreed to within the WTO mechanism.

Those goods include paper and paperboard, palm oil, and refrigerators.

Under WTO rules, the parties have 60 days to work out a mutually agreed solution. After that, the EU could ask the WTO to adjudicate.

The dispute is the fifth involving Russia and the EU at the WTO.

The European Commission's spokesman for trade issues, Wojtek Talko, said the case was not a complaint against the recent ban on Russian food imports from Europe.

(Based on reporting by Reuters and dpa)

RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK RAISES INTEREST RATES

The Russian central bank said it would raise interest rates from 8 percent to 9.5 percent as Western sanctions and falling oil prices have sent the Russian ruble plummeting.

The Bank of Russia's board of directors made the decision to raise interest rates at an October 31 meeting.

The central bank had increased the rate to 8 percent in late July, following increased to 5.5 percent in March and 7.5 percent in April.

The United States, European Union and other nations have imposed successive rounds of sanctions on Russia over its role in the Ukraine crisis.

Russia annexed the Crimea region from Ukraine in March, and Kyiv and NATO accuse Moscow of aiding pro-Russian separatists with troops and arms during a conflict in eastern Ukraine that has killed more than 3,700 people in eastern Ukraine since April.

(Based on reporting by TASS, Interfax, and AFP)

U.S AMBASSADOR TO KYRGYZSTAN WARNS OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE

By RFE/RL

The U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan says that the Central Asian nation's "growing partnership with Russia" presents a challenge to U.S. efforts to support democracy in Kyrgyzstan.

In an article published on the website of the Council of American Ambassadors, Pamela Spratlen (eds: a woman) said the "strong partnership" that Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev has forged with Russian President Vladimir Putin "has had its impact on our efforts."

"It remains an unanswered question how Kyrgyzstan can maintain its democratic trajectory while pursuing this partnership," she said.

Spratlen also said that many in Kyrgyzstan get their news from Russian media, and that in the case of the Ukraine crisis "the strident anti-American tone taken by Russian propaganda has crystallized local public opinion around Moscow's narrative of events there."

Kyrgyzstan has seemed to follow Moscow's lead on several issues recently, including drafting laws that legitimize discrimination against homosexuals and would require foreign-based organizations to register as "foreign agents."

(Based on Spratlen article: https://www.americanambassadors.org/publications/ambassadors-review/fall-2014/democracy-in-central-asia-supporting-kyrgyzstan-s-island-of-democracy)

RUSSIAN ACTOR FIRES MACHINE GUN IN DONETSK

Ukrainian authorities have filed charges and Russia's Union of Journalists is demanding an apology after a prominent Russian actor was filmed firing a machine gun near the Donetsk airport while wearing patches that identified him as a member of the press.

Ukraine's Interior Ministry on October 31 filed criminal charges against Mikhail Porechenkov for the pictures taken with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on his Facebook page, "Mikhail Porechenkov, present in Donetsk, personally took part in firing on units of Ukraine's armed forces using an automatic weapon."

Pavel Gutiontov of Russia's Union of Journalists called the incident "irresponsible behavior on the part of the actor" and demanded an apology.

Porechenkov said that it was a staged scene, that he was firing blanks, and that the only bullet-resistant vest and helmet he could find were labelled "press."

(Based on reporting by UNIAN, TASS, and Interfax)

09:54 October 31, 2014

50 RUBLES TO THE DOLLAR?!?

Writing in Slon, Yakov Mirkin, chairman of the Department of International Capital Markets at the Russian Academy of Sciences Insititute of World Economy and International Relations, argued that the ruble could easily sink to 50 to the dollar.

The reasons? 

1) The ruble is overvalued anyway;

2) The dollar is rising against major currencies and this upward cycle is likely to continue;

3) Oil prices are falling;

4) A combination of Western sanctions and diversification of energy supplies

5) Capital flight from Russia continues apace.

And in light of Mirkin's argument, it is worth noting that he has consistently been arguing that the ruble is overvalued. Here he is speaking back in August 2013:

09:41 October 31, 2014

UKRAINIAN HOSPITALITY

Russian journalist Ivan Sukhov writing in "The Moscow Times" on working in Ukraine:

"Russian journalists encounter no personal aggression while working in Ukraine. Only the rare local politician refuses to speak to Russian reporters.

And in place of perfectly understandable aggression, Russian journalists encounter only gentle Ukrainian hospitality along with a sizable share of condescending sympathy.

It is as if they want to tell us, 'We will stay here, where we have taken the responsibility for our future into our own hands, whereas you will fly home to Russia's stifling political atmosphere, to a country that futilely reconsiders the outcome of the Cold War and the people are caught up in a mass euphoria over the bloodshed in the Donbass.'"

Read it all here.

08:56 October 31, 2014

MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

RUSSIA, UKRAINE SIGN EU-BROKERED GAS DEAL

By RFE/RL

Moscow and Kyiv have signed a landmark agreement that will guarantee Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine throughout the winter despite tense relations over the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The EU-brokered deal, which extends until March 2015, was signed at a ceremony in Brussels by the energy ministers of the two countries, Aleksandr Novak and Yuriy Prodan, and European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger.

Outgoing EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, who oversaw the signing, hailed the agreement, saying, "There is now no reason for people in Europe to stay cold this winter."

The hard-fought deal followed months-long EU-mediated negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv amid a long and bitter dispute over payments.

The agreement was reached after two days of marathon talks that had stalled before dawn on October 30 when Russia demanded that the EU first agree with Ukraine how to pay Kyiv's outstanding bills and finance gas deliveries through to March.

Oettinger said that under the accord, Ukraine will pay Russia $1.45 billion in gas arrears within "days" for Moscow to resume gas deliveries.

He said Russia will then "immediately" lower Ukraine's gas price by 100 dollars to around $385 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Kyiv will subsequently have access to Russian gas deliveries in exchange for pre-payment, according to Oettinger. He said Ukraine also agreed to settle another $1.65 billion in arrears by the end of the year.

The deal is expected to include EU funding to help Ukraine pay off its debts to Russia's state-owned gas giant Gazprom.

Oettinger said, "we can guarantee a security of supply over the winter," not only for Ukraine but also for the EU nations closest to the region.

He added that the deal "is perhaps the first glimmer of a relaxation" between Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine's Prodan said the "decisions taken today will provide energy security for Ukraine and the EU."

Moscow cut off gas deliveries to Ukraine in mid-June, citing a $5.3-billion debt and demanding that Ukraine settle its outstanding bills and pay up front for any future deliveries.

The dispute occurred amid Russia's conflict with Ukraine and Western sanctions imposed on Moscow for its annexation of Crimea in March and its subseqent military and political support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

With Ukraine relying on Russia for around 50 percent of its gas, the onset of winter made the need for a deal more urgent.

Russia also provides about one-third of the European Union's gas, about half of which is pumped via Ukraine.

The EU was seeking to avoid a repeat of 2006 and 2009 when Russia halted supplies to Ukraine, disrupting deliveries to Europe during two very cold winters.

But Russia's Novak said after the signing that Moscow will remain a "reliable supplier" of energy to Europe and the deal struck with Ukraine will ensure stable gas deliveries over the winter.

In reaction to the deal, the French and German leaders said in a joint statement that the EU will "fully play its role" to implement the gas deal.

Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel said they had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko earlier October 30, and all four "have welcomed the conclusion of negotiations on the delivery of Russian gas to Ukraine, achieved thanks to the mediation of the European Union."

(Based on live broadcast, with additional reporting by Reuters, AP, and AFP)

AIR ARMENIA BLAMES RUSSIA FOR FLIGHT SUSPENSIONS

By RFE/RL’s Armenian Service

YEREVAN -- Air Armenia, a passengar and cargo airline based in Yerevan, has suspended all passenger flights until at least December 20 over financial difficulties that the firm is blaming on Russia.

Air Armenia says it is unable continue regular passenger services because of a “panic” among investors and customers over a statement by Russia's federal air navigation service.

Russia's Rosaeronavigatsia announced on September 11 that it would ban Air Armenia from operating flights to Russian cities unless the company paid its outstanding debts by September 21.

Air Armenia said ihe statement damaged its business reputation and that, as a result, its fleet was reduced to one aircraft.

Other than Russian cities, the airline had been flying to Paris, Frankfurt, and Athens.

Air Armenia was founded as a cargo airline in 2003 and began operating commercial passenger flights in 2013 after the bankruptcy of Armavia.

COURT ORDERS NATIONALIZATION OF OLIGARCH'S BASHNEFT SHARES

A Moscow court has ordered the nationalization of a stake in an oil company owned by a detained tycoon.

The Moscow Arbitration Court ruled on October 30 the stake in Bashneft held by billionaire Vladimir Yevtushenkov's holding company Sistema would be returned to the state.

Prosecutors claimed the stake was illegally privatized by officials in Russia's Bashkortostan region.

The court said new claims could be filed after the worth of Sistema's stake in Bashneft was ascertained.

Yevtushenkov was arrested last month on charges of money laundering related to the acquisition of Bashneft.

His arrested sparked speculation that Russia's largest oil company, state-run Rosneft, would acquire Sistema's Bashneft shares.

Yevtushenkov is one of Russia's richest businessmen, with assets estimated to be worth some $9 billion.

(Based on reporting by AFP, rapsinews.ru, and Interfax)

LATVIA-BASED RUSSIAN NEWS PORTAL BLOCKED IN KAZAKHSTAN

By RFE/RL's Kazakh Service

An online Russian news portal based in Latvia has been blocked in Kazakhstan over an article described by Astana as "inflicting ethnic discord."

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Investments and Development said on October 30 that the Meduza.io website published an article "propagating ethnic discord and threatening the territorial integrity" of Kazakhstan.

The article about ethnic Russians living in Kazakhstan's eastern city of Ust-Kamenogorsk (aka Oskemen) is titled: "Ust-Kamenogorsk People's Republic. Are Locals Ready For Polite Green Men?"

‘Green Men’ refers to the deployment in foreign countries of Russian military forces wearing unmarked green uniforms – as Russia has done in the past in regions of Georgia and Ukraine.

The ministry also has filed a lawsuit against Meduza.io in connection with the article.

It says the website will remain blocked in Kazakhstan until a local court rules in the case.

(With reporting by Interfax)

KYRGYZ WILL NEED PASSPORTS TO ENTER RUSSIA

By RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service

Kyrgyzstan's State Registration Ministry says that as of January 1, 2015, Kyrgyz citizens will no longer be able to enter the Russian Federation using their national identification documents.

Since 2007, Kyrgyz labor migrants have been travelling between the two countries with internal identification documents. Now they will have to obtain travel passports.

The regulation, announced on October 29, will affect hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz labor migrants who work in Russia and periodically travel between the two countries.

Moscow announced earlier this year that it wants to tighten by 2015 the regulations for entering Russia by nationals of former Soviet republics that are not members of the Russia-led Customs Union and Eurasian Economic Union.

In May, Kyrgyzstan signed a road map under which it is to join the Customs Union, which currently comprises Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, by the end of 2014.  

NATO REPORTS UNUSUAL RUSSIAN WARPLANE ACTIVITY AROUND EUROPE

NATO said on October 29 that it tracked and intercepted four groups of Russian warplanes “conducting significant military manoeuvers” in international airspace close to the borders of the European Union during the previous 24 hours.

NATO’s SHAPE military headquarters in Mons, Belgium said: “These sizeable Russian flights represent an unusual level of air activity over European airspace.”

It said the planes included strategic bombers, fighters, and tanker aircraft.

They were detected over the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Black Sea on October 28 and 29.

Russian bombers flew south all the way to international airspace west of Portugal and Spain.

Norwegian, British, Portuguese, German, Danish, and Turkish fighters were scrambled to intercept and identify the Russian planes.

Planes from the non-NATO nations of Finland and Sweden also responded.

Since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, tensions between NATO and Russia have risen to the highest level since the Cold War.

(Based on reporting by AP and AFP)

18:33 October 29, 2014

EVENING NEWS ROUNDUP

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

KREMLIN MOVES TO QUASH PUTIN HEALTH RUMORS

Vladimir Putin's spokesman said on October 29 that the Russian president is in good health, seeking to quash rumors of an illness.

Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow that "everything is okay" with Putin's health, Russian news agencies Interfax and TASS reported.

"They will wait in vain. May their tongues wither," Peskov said of those who claim Putin is ill.

Peskov spoke after a spate of Russian media reports referring to an October 24 column in the tabloid "New York Post" whose author, Richard Johnson, cited unidentified sources as saying Putin had pancreatic cancer.

Putin and the Kremlin have strongly discouraged reporting about the 62-year-old president's private life.

(Based on reporting by TASS and Interfax)

ROSNEFT THREATENS TO SUE NEWSPAPER OVER SANCTIONS REPORT

Russia's largest oil company, Rosneft, is threatening to sue the Russian daily "Kommersant" for a report alleging Rosneft sent President Vladimir Putin proposals for countersanctions against Western companies and individuals.

"Kommersant" reported on October 29 that state-run Rosneft's proposals include limiting cooperation aboard the International Space Station, prohibiting burial of U.S. and EU nuclear waste in Russia, and possible confiscation of property in Russia owned by Western countries or their citizens.

Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, denied there were any Rosneft proposals for sanctions, but presidential aide Andrei Belousov and Economy Minister Aleksei Ulyukayev seemed to contradict this.

State-run TASS reported Peskov said reports Rosneft had sent such proposals were untrue.

Peskov said decisions on imposing sanctions were made "in line with the relevant departments, and taken on the level of the government and president."

A different TASS report quoted Belousov as saying, "We are closely studying Rosneft's proposals."

Belousov went on to say, "I would say the radicalism of the proposals for now exceeds the current level of tensions."

The Interfax news agency quoted Ulyukayev as saying the proposals were a "very complex document" and adding, "I don’t think it is grounds for making any decisions."

The "Kommersant" report said "Russian government officials" had provided information about the alleged proposals.

A statement from Rosneft said the company was "deeply shocked" by the "Kommersant" article and might sue the newspaper.

Western governments have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia over its annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

The sanctions target key Russian industries and individuals close to Putin, including Rosneft and its head, Igor Sechin, who is a former Kremlin deputy chief of staff.

The sanctions have hurt Rosneft, which has already requested additional funding from the Russian government to make up for losses incurred due to sanctions.

British oil company BP reported on October 28 that its income from its operations with Rosneft dropped from $808 million in the third quarter of 2013 to $110 million in the same period this year.

(Based on reporting by TASS, Interfax, Reuters, and Kommersant)

WHITE HOUSE DETECTS SUSPICIOUS CYBER ACTIVITY, REPORT BLAMES RUSSIA

The White House says it has taken measures to counter suspicious activity detected on its unclassified computer network.

A White House official would not say who might have been responsible for the activity on what was described as an unclassified computer network used by employees of the Executive Office of the President.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the authorities had taken "immediate measures to evaluate and mitigate the activity."

In a report on October 28, the "Washington Post" cited sources as saying hackers believed to be working for the Russian government breached the unclassified computer network in recent weeks.

The White House has declined to comment on the "Washington Post" report.

A U.S. administration official said there were no indications that classified networks had been affected.

(Based on reporting by Reuters, AP, and dpa)

VICTIMS OF STALIN TERROR REMEMBERED IN MOSCOW CEREMONY

By RFE/RL

Activists are gathering near the former KGB headquarters to honor the memory of thousands of men and women executed by Soviet authorities during Josef Stalin's "Great Terror."

Speakers at the daylong ceremony at the Solovetsky Stone memorial on Moscow's Lubyanka Square read out aloud the names, ages, occupations, and dates of executions of some 30,000 people killed by Soviet authorities in 1937-1938.

Muscovites and others brought flowers, pictures of victims and candles to the site of the "Returning the Names" commemoration, which began at 1000 (local time; 0800 Prague time) and was to end at 1000 (local time; 0800 Prague time).

The annual ceremony is organized by Memorial, Russia's oldest and best-known human rights organization, which is under pressure from the government.

On October 10, Russia's Justice Ministry appealed to the Supreme Court to close Memorial.

Memorial has held the ceremony every year since 2006 at the site near the headquarters of the Federal Security Service, the KGB's main successor.

Ceremonies were also being held in other Russian cities.

(Based on live broadcast by october29.ru)

SEPARATISTS SHELL UKRAINIAN TROOPS

Pro-Russian separatists reportedly shelled the position of Ukrainian government troops in southeastern Ukraine on October 29, despite an almost two-month-old cease-fire agreement.

Authorities in the port city of Mariupol say military positions located near the village of Talakovka were targeted on October 29 by conventional artillery and Grad rockets that were fired from from the separatist-controlled region of Donetsk.

Casualties were reported among troops.

The cease-fire agreement signed in early September ended most fighting between the two sides -- although battles at the Donetsk airport, in Mariupol, and in villages near the city of Luhansk continue on an almost daily basis.

The UN says more than 3,700 people have been killed in six months of fighting between government forces and separatists in eastern Ukraine, with hundreds of thousands fleeing their homes.

(Based on reporting by Interfax and UNIAN)

RUSSIAN AIRLINE PLANS YEREVAN-CRIMEA FLIGHTS OVER kYIV'S OBJECTIONS

By RFE/RL's Armenian Service

The Grozny Air civil aviation company, based in the Russia's Chechnya region, is pressing ahead with plans to launch regular flights from Yerevan to Crimea, despite protests from Kyiv.

Timur Shimayev, an executive officer for Grozny Air, told RFE/RL on October 29 that the firm's inaugural flight to Crimea is scheduled for November 17.

But Ukraine's Ambassador to Armenia, Ivan Kukhta, told reporters in Yerevan on October 29 that any commercial flights between Yerevan and Crimea must first be approved by Kyiv.

Kukhta's statement came five days after a spokesman for the Armenian government’s Civil Aviation Department, Ruben Grdzelian, said that a Russian regional airline had not been allowed to launch flights between Armenia and Crimea since the Ukrainian penninsula was annexed by Russia in March.

Moscow's annexation of Crimea has been condemned as illegal by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations General Assembly.

 

12:55 October 29, 2014

SANCTION THIS!

The Russian daily "Kommersant" reports that the state-run oil giant Rosneft is calling on President Vladimir Putin to impose new sanctions on the West. The new moves reportedly include limiting cooperation aboard the International Space Station, prohibiting burial of U.S. and EU nuclear waste in Russia, and possible confiscation of property in Russia owned by Western countries or their citizens.

12:41 October 29, 2014

AND IN THE FALLOUT DEPARTMENT...

Just a few things I've noticed this morning:

Russian-German Trade Down

German exports to Russia have dropped by more than a quarter, "The Moscow Times" reports. In August, exports from Germany to Russia were 2.3 billion euros, a 26.3 percent decrease from a year ago. Moreover, German exports to Russia fell by 16.6 percent from January-August 2014.

Russian Elite More Cohesive -- For Now

According to a report by Reuters, sanctions have had the "opposite effect to the one intended" among the elite. "Far from dividing those closest to President Vladimir Putin, they have forced the main players in the energy sector to rally behind him. This circle has by necessity become more focused, Western and Russian businessmen, diplomats and politicians said," according to the report.

Sweden Is Warming Up To NATO

Foreign Directors Bail On Russian Firms

Since the start of the year, 14 percent of foreigners serving on the boards of Russian firms have left their posts, "The Moscow Times" reports. "Western sanctions have forced some foreign directors to step down or curb their activities on the boards of publicly traded Russian companies, leaving a critical gap that few domestic candidates are equipped to fill," according to the report.

09:17 October 29, 2014

MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP

From RFE/RL's News Desk:

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE TO RESUME GAS TALKS

Russia and Ukraine are set to resume talks over a gas dispute on October 29 in Brussels.

The new round of negotiations comes after inconclusive talks October 21, when European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger announced some progress, but said a final deal has yet to be agreed.

Russia cut off gas deliveries to Ukraine in mid-June, citing a $5.3-billion debt.

Oettinger said that, as part of tentative deals, Ukraine planned to purchase some 4 billion cubic meters of Russian gas before the end of this year.

Russia on October 21 said the it would sell gas to Ukraine for $385 per 1,000 cubic meters, much lower than the $485 that Russia's state-controlled Gazprom was demanding just weeks ago.

Moscow said that price would be in force from October 2014 until late March 2015 -- but only if Ukraine pays in advance.

(Based on reporting by AFP and AP)

KYIV CONDEMNS MOSCOW'S SUPPORT FOR SEPARATIST ELECTIONS

Ukraine on October 28 condemned as “destructive and provocative” Russia’s support for elections organized by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, while the United States said a vote by separatists in eastern Ukraine would be unlawful.

The November 2 vote was scheduled by rebels in defiance of Ukrainian national elections on October 26, which were won by pro-Western parties.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on October 28 described the vote planned by rebels as "pseudo-elections," saying they "grossly contradict the spirit and letter" of international agreements reached in Minsk in September.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow plans to recognize the elections that are being organized by separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that the the vote "will be a clear violation of the commitments made by both Russia and the separatists that it backs in the Minsk agreements."

(Based on reporting by Reuters, AP, AFP, and TASS)

GAZPROM NEFT CHALLENGES EU SANCTIONS IN EUROPEAN COURT

Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russia's state-controlled natural gas monopoly Gazprom, said on October 28 that it has challenged European Union sanctions against the firm in the EU’s Court of Justice.

The sanctions against Gazprom Neft were imposed as part of wider restrictions against Russia over its illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine and its support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

The EU sanctions restrict the ability of Gazprom Neft, Russia's fourth biggest oil producer by output, to raise funds on European markets.

The United States also has imposed sanctions against Gazprom Neft in response to Russia’s role in Ukraine’s crisis.

The West says Moscow is supplying arms and troops to help pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine battle Ukrainian government forces.

Moscow denies that, despite increasing evidence to support the charges.

(Based on reporting by Reuters, AP, and TASS)

18:54 October 27, 2014

THE BIG CHILL

Sam Greene, Director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London and author of "Moscow in Movement: Power & Opposition in Putin’s Russia," has a depressing (and must-read) blog post up about his recent trip to Moscow titled: "Russia's Tomorrow, Today."

It opens like this:

The news and the invitation were waiting for me, both, when I got off the plane from London to Moscow. I saw the invitation first—from a long-time colleague, to attend a workshop on the future of Russian politics later this month at Memorial, the venerable Russian historical society and human rights organization. I saw the news two hours later: 17 days after that workshop, Russia’s High Court will hold a hearing on the government’s demand that Memorial be liquidated.

That is the condition of life in Russia these days: two hours in which an invitation takes on a funerary pallor, 17 days in which the world becomes immeasurably smaller. Rarely has the distance between today and tomorrow been so great and so fraught as it is now.

And it concludes like this:

The tomorrow whose arrival now seems inevitable is one in which the archives of Memorial and the Sakharov Center disappear, to be replaced with a single national history textbook and a single national literature textbook, so that the past may have no bearing on the future. It is one in which policy analysis disappears from the public space, along with honest reporting, so that the present may also have no bearing on the future. Tomorrow, when it arrives, will bring one sole purpose: to preserve and protect the status quo. It is a tomorrow after which there are meant to be, politically speaking, no more tomorrows at all..

What the designers of this new tomorrow may not realize, however, is that, once freed from the paralysis of a pointless today, the despair of disaffection becomes the desperation of dissent. Dissidents, pitted against a regime that can never fall, take risks that are unnecessary in a more fluid system. They speak at all costs to demonstrate that they have no voice, and they go to jail to demonstrate that they are not free. Once today becomes tomorrow, and there are no more tomorrows for which to wait, the imperative of immediate action reemerges. 

Is the Kremlin ready for an opposition that, because everything is already lost, has nothing left to lose?

Read it all here.

And a h/t to Ben Judah for flagging.

 

15:42 October 27, 2014

FROM THE YOU-CAN'T-MAKE-THIS-STUFF-UP DEPARTMENT

The Russian health and consumer watchdog Rospotrebnadzor has issued a dire warning: SEFIES CAUSE HEAD LICE!

No, really. I'm serious! It is actually on their official website:

"One reason for the spread of lice among teenagers, in the opinion of experts, is because selfie photographs have become more common. In these group photos, lice are transfered due to the touching of heads."

And it is causing a lot of laughs on the Twitter:

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The Power Vertical is a blog written especially for Russia wonks and obsessive Kremlin watchers by Brian Whitmore. It covers emerging and developing trends in Russian politics, shining a spotlight on the high-stakes power struggles, machinations, and clashing interests that shape Kremlin policy today. Check out The Power Vertical Facebook page or