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Western Ukraine Could Decide Presidential Election Outcome

Yulia Tymoshenko (left) and Viktor Yanukovych look set to face off again, this time for presidential office.
Yulia Tymoshenko (left) and Viktor Yanukovych look set to face off again, this time for presidential office.
By Taras Kuzio
After what is widely seen as five years of missed opportunities under incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's three-month election campaign has begun.

Past presidential elections in Ukraine have been a contest for control of the "swing" region of central Ukraine that Leonid Kuchma and Yushchenko won in 1994 and 2004, respectively. But to win nationwide, a candidate needs either western or eastern Ukraine as well.

Kuchma won by winning the east and the center, Yushchenko the west and the center. The last three elections were won by slim majorities of 52-56 percent.

The upcoming presidential elections will be different, and the first in which western Ukraine will play a strategic role in deciding the winner. Central Ukraine continues to be dominated by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whereas opposition Party of Regions Chairman Viktor Yanukovych has a dominant position in eastern-southern Ukraine.

The presidential election is set for January 17, 2010; if no candidate wins outright in the first round, a runoff will take place three weeks later.

Presidential Fragmentation

Western Ukraine's central role in the upcoming elections is the product of five years of infighting and fragmentation of the center-right. The Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense bloc (NU-NS) that entered parliament in September 2007 included nine parties that had promised to merge into a single pro-Yushchenko party that would support his bid for a second presidential term.

Instead, the nine have grown to 14, with the establishment of two new parties, led by Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko (Self Defense) and former chief of staff Viktor Baloga (United Center), plus three NGOs that are embryo parties led respectively by former Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko (Civic Initiative), former parliament speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk (Front for Change), and Vyacheslav Kyrylenko (For Ukraine!).

Of NU-NS's 72 parliamentary deputies, approximately 40, a slim majority, support the democratic coalition underpinning the Tymoshenko government (together with the Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Lytvyn blocs).

President Viktor Yushchenko's public support has dwindled.
Of the remaining 32 deputies, 17 belong to the single pro-Yushchenko group, For Ukraine!, while a further 10 belong to United Center.

President Yushchenko's election campaign is hampered not only by his low popular support, which he routinely dismisses as unimportant, but also his lack of a political machine. Yushchenko is honorary chairman of the People's Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU) party, one of the original nine in the NU-NS bloc, and his chief of staff Vera Ulianichenko is its leader. Both the NS-NU and Yushchenko personally can count on only 2-3 percent support.

The NS-NU has been bankrupt since the spring, when Ukrainian businessmen withdrew their funding after it became evident that he was a lame duck president unable to win a second term.

At least five of the figures who played key roles in the Orange Revolution will be competing for the presidency: Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, Yatsenyuk, Hrytsenko, and Yuriy Kostenko, leader of the People's Party, one of the original nine in the NU-NS bloc.

The nationalist-populist leader of the Svoboda Party (formerly called the Social-National Party) Oleh Tyahnybok, who won a majoritarian seat in 2002 and joined the Our Ukraine faction (only to be expelled two years later for anti-Semitic remarks), will also be competing for the western Ukrainian vote.

Not Easy Breaking In

The two leading candidates in western Ukraine are Tymoshenko and Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk leads among younger and educated voters in the three Galician oblasts, while Tymoshenko leads in the remaining four oblasts of western Ukraine. Overall, Tymoshenko has a 6-7 percentage-point lead over Yatsenyuk throughout western Ukraine.

Yatsenyuk's popularity has catapulted him to third place in national opinion polls, but this should not make him overly self-confident, and his ratings have dropped by a third since the summer. Yatsenyuk's popularity is being squeezed from four directions: Tymoshenko, Ukraine's best election campaigner and most charismatic politician; incumbent Yushchenko, who has the same voter base as Yatsenyuk; Hrytsenko; and Serhiy Tyhipko.

In addition to Yatsenyuk, Hrytsenko and Tyhipko also figure within the "second tier" of candidates. Tyhipko has roots in the Dnipropetrovsk clan's Labor Ukraine Party, but is increasingly challenging Yatsenyuk for the position of the "new face in politics" among disillusioned voters.

Can Arseniy Yatsenyuk sneak into the second round?
Yatsenyuk's western Ukrainian voters could also turn away from him over his inconsistency on issues that they consider crucial to Ukraine's national identity. Although elected to parliament in the NU-NS bloc, Yatsenyuk has de facto ditched key elements in its platform, such as abolishing parliamentary immunity; legal recognition of Ukrainian nationalist partisans who fought against the Nazis and Soviets in the 1940s; NATO membership; and energy independence (Yatsenyuk supports a gas consortium with Russia).

He has also recently become skeptical of EU membership and withdrew his signature from a January 2008 letter to NATO's Bucharest summit (which he signed together with Tymoshenko and Yushchenko) seeking a Membership Action Plan.

These are all issues on which Yushchenko (and to some degree Tymoshenko) are challenging Yatsenyuk. Ironically, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's bitterly critical August letter to Yushchenko will only have served to improve his ratings in western Ukraine and therefore eaten into Yatsenyuk's popularity.

Touted last year as representing the younger generation of Ukrainian politicians and therefore by implication as "pro-Western," Yatsenyuk looked decidedly less so at the September Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit.

YES, an NGO established five years ago by oligarch Viktor Pinchuk, invited Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, and Yatsenyuk to present their platforms to a special "Freedom of Speech" ICTV live program and to European guests (ICTV is one of four television channels owned by Pinchuk). Of the three, Yatsenyuk, according to Ukrainian media reports, was the most disappointing and vacuous.

Tymoshenko Stands Up


Tymoshenko's campaign team have realized the strategic importance of western Ukraine and reached out to the North American diaspora, which retains its influence over the region. Addressing the annual meeting of the World Congress of Ukrainians in Lviv on August 21-22, on the eve of Ukraine's Independence Day, Tymoshenko stressed her support for Ukrainian remaining the only state language, an issue of particular concern to western Ukrainians and the Ukrainian diaspora.

On October 13, the Tymoshenko bloc organized a parliamentary hearing on links with the Ukrainian diaspora. Tymoshenko's reaffirmation of support for the Ukrainian language forced Yanukovych to announce prematurely that, if reelected president, he would elevate Russian to the status of the second state language. This policy, which figured in his 2004 campaign program, will ruin his chances completely in western Ukraine, and to some degree in the central region as well.

The January elections are likely to require a runoff, as in 2004, this time between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. But unlike five years ago, when Yushchenko ran as the united opposition candidate, this time around the former Orange Revolution parties and leaders are fragmented.

Ukrainian intellectual groups are increasingly calling on the "Orange" camp to unite around Tymoshenko, as they had united around Yushchenko. That lack of "Orange" unity in turn improves Yanukovych's chances, so it is likely that this time the bitter second round will pit him against Tymoshenko.

Taras Kuzio is a senior fellow of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Toronto, adjunct research professor at the Institute of European and Russian Studies at Carleton University, and editor of the bimonthly "Ukraine Analyst"
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by: Slawko from: USA
October 20, 2009 03:14
Taras Kuzio has been "carrying water" for Tymoshenko for the past several years. His analysis of politics in Ukraine is little more than a rehash of Ukrainian media rather than a scholarly examination. His school boy infatuation with Yulia Tymoshenko is amusing. I have yet to find one critical or balanced article by Kuzio regarding Tymoshenko.

by: olena from: usa
October 20, 2009 15:44
I have also noticed that a while ago

by: Jaroslaw from: Washington, DC
October 21, 2009 02:25
Slawko and Olena in the USA, besides a personal attack on Taras Kuzio neither of you have pointed out how he has not been balanced or objective. Remarks like "school boy infatuation . . ." are just not serious or responsible. You come across like some sort diaspora proxies for the Party of Regions, and your commets you are divisive and unfounded. Tymoshenko is smart, decisive and eloquent . . . and if not her then who?

by: cherkasy5 from: Kyiv
October 21, 2009 11:42

Why not Tymoshenko?

Because - in addition to being a multibillion dollar gas thief - she is a fifth column of Moscow and Putin. Tymoshenko simply knows how to play the vanities of the Diaspora, when in fact she is Soviet Eastern Ukraine to the core, a 100 percent Russian speaker. She has no true loyalty to the Ukrainian language or nation, or a Westernizing agenda. Tymoshenko's only loyalty is to her own cult, her hunger for power, and a state-centralized economy.

Yuschenko and Yatseniuk need to present a united front against Tymoshenko in Western Ukraine.

by: Slawko from: USA
October 22, 2009 04:25
Jaroslaw misses the point. Kuzio's comments on politics in Ukraine are unbalanced because he criticizes certain politicos such as Yushchenko and Yatsenyuk to the exclusion of Tymoshenko. At one point when Yatsenyuk was seen as a possible threat to Tymoshenko in Western Ukraine, Kuzio mentioned in one of his articles that Yatsenyuk would have to overcome "rumors" about his Jewish heritage. This is a classic "dry snitch" maneuver. To list Kuzio's panegyric musings regarding Tymoshenko would be too numerous for this forum. I suggest that Jaroslaw google Kuzio and Tymoshenko. I challenge Jaroslaw to find a balanced or critical analysis of Tymoshenko written by Dr. Kuzio. All politicians in Ukraine are deserving of honest criticism and analysis. Even professors (real or forged ala Yanukovych) are not beyond criticism. The point , Jaroslaw, is that Kuzio should be less subjective and more scholarly. Otherwise, he can be accused of much worse than "schoolboy infatuation."

by: Ugly BYuT from: Dnipropetrovsk
October 22, 2009 07:26
Kuzio labels Tyhypko as part of a clan, but somehow forgets to label Tymoshenko as belonging to that same clan -- and during the 1990's even being sit rising star. How come Kuzio forgets to mention Tymoshenko's ties to that clan; how Moscow military procurators had an arrest warrant out for Julia for stealing; how she cheated billions in gas shipments during her head a UES; how while her partner in crime Lazarenko is sitting in jail, Julia is pulling the eyes over the diaspora. Take a look at Brodkiy's comments in Pravda or the latest pedofile scandal involving 3 BYUT deputies to learn the true face of Tymoshenko and her political supporters. Kuzio is a paid mouthpiece.

by: Political Dissident
October 22, 2009 12:42
Western Ukraine isn't as populous as eastern Ukraine. Tack on southern Ukraine and western Ukraine gets put back further in influence. Over the past several decades, central Ukraine has seen an increase in folks from western Ukraine.

Regarding Tymoshenko, I've used the term Milosevican in relation to Holbrooke's view that at various times Milosevic utilized different themes for the benefit of advancing himself - over having a sincere set of beliefs.

That said, I'm nevertheless of the impression that Tymoshenko is somewhere between Yanukovych and Yushchenko.

In a one on one runoff vote, she looks to be trouble for Yanukovych.

Should Yanukovych come out on top, he will still have to contend with the tyranny of the minority as reflected by Kuzio thinking Ukrainians.

by: cherkasy5 from: Kyiv
October 22, 2009 17:24

Yulia Tymoshenko is increasing her support in Western Ukraine by using her vast oligarch's wealth to buy up whoever can be bought. Tymoshenko is fooling the North American Diaspora the same way the NKVD fooled Galician Ukrainians in the mid and late 1940's. Throw down some bread and salt, speak in Ukrainian, pretend to be one of them, and buy the loyalty of those who can be bought. Very simple formula. Andriy Shkil of UNA-UNSO is one of those former patriots who sold out to Tymoshenko's money. Shkil was once practically an outlaw for his extreme nationalist views. Now he is enjoying the good life, appearing on television in expensive suits and looking very, very refined.

Unfortunately it is not only Ukrainian citizens who are receiving cash to promote Tymoshenko. Members of the Western community of Ukraine policy scholars are also on the take. I am sure that RFE/RL knows that this is going on. It is totally unethical, and against the very purpose of an organization with such a proud history in supporting free journalism.

As "Our Ukraine" leader Viacheslav Kirilenko (a true West Ukrainian patriot who will never sell out to any pro-Russian scam) stated last week, both main candidates for president are pro-Moscow - one openly (Yanukovich), and one covertly (Tymoshenko). Unless Yuschenko or Yatseniuk can mount a late challenge, patriotic Ukrainians will be left with no choice at all in this election.

Taras Kuzio in this piece barely manages to hide his glee that Yatseniuk and Yuschenko have so far been damaging only each other, to the benefit of Tymoshenko. Taras is right - Western Ukraine is going to play the pivotal strategic role in this election. But so far there isn't much reason for optimism that West Ukrainians will be voting for any candidate who supports their interests. If Tymoshenko becomes president, the interests of Western Ukrainians will be the first to be sacrificed in favor of a policy of moving closer to Russia.

by: Joe from: Vancouver
November 07, 2009 20:28
It's so funny to see that some here believe the Ukraine to be a real country and Ukranians to be a real people. You have always been and will always be nothing but a Russian province, and your language nothing but a redneck form of Russian. What a joke...

by: Peter from: Toronto
November 09, 2009 05:03
I would like to ask that the prior comment be removed by the administrators. The author holds no factual basis for his/her statements and is merely trying to elicit an angry response from other readers. Perhaps if he/she were to read 'A History of Ukraine' (P. Magocsi, U of T press) he/she would be better informed and prepared to make a logical statement in relation to Ukraine, this article, and politics in general.
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