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Is A Russia-Georgia War Off The Table?

Georgian artists welcome the "USS Stout" in Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi.
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By Brian Whitmore
A U.S. guided-missile destroyer docks at the port of Batumi ahead of joint U.S.-Georgian naval exercises near the separatist Abkhazia region.

The day before, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was given a hero's welcome when he paid his first visit as Kremlin leader to a second breakaway Georgian region, South Ossetia.

Medvedev pledged more financial and military aid to the tiny territory, which declared independence from Tbilisi following Moscow's invasion of Georgia last year. From there, Medvedev traveled on to Sochi where he announced the successful test-launch of a ballistic missile from a Russian naval submarine.

The Russian president also told assembled naval personnel that Tbilisi bears "full responsibility" for last summer's war in South Ossetia and predicted the Georgian people would one day "hand down a heavy sentence" on Mikheil Saakashvili's regime.

At first glance, the events of the past two days might indicate that Russia and Georgia might be on the brink of another conflict over the two Moscow-backed rebel regions. A number of Russia-watchers had already laid bets on a repeat summer invasion.

But as often is the case in the Caucasus, appearances can be deceiving. Georgian President Saakashvili, who has warned for months that a Russian invasion was imminent, suddenly pulled an about-face, confidently declaring that the threat of war with Moscow has been reduced.

"All of [Russia's] aggressive plans for the near term have failed," Saakashvili said on June 9 at a televised meeting with his National Security Council

"The war that they had imagined, that they had in their plans and dreams, will not happen. The planned military invasion against Georgia will not be possible to implement due to the new geopolitical reality."

That new geopolitical reality, Georgian officials are suggesting, comes in the wake of U.S. President Barack Obama's visit last week to Moscow -- and ahead of a scheduled visit to Georgia by Vice President Joseph Biden next week.

A Warning From Washington

Publicly, Obama used his Moscow trip to voice mild support for Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. But senior Georgian officials have told RFE/RL that behind the scenes, Obama warned Medvedev in no uncertain terms against starting a new war.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tbilisi was informed by U.S. officials that Obama told Medvedev that any attack against Georgia would have "grave consequences" and that Washington "would not stand aside" in such a conflict as it did during last year's war.

A White House spokesperson declined comment, saying "we don't discuss private conversations."

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev received a warm welcome in South Ossetia.
Analysts say there has been a noticeable change in tone among top Georgian officials since Obama's July 6-8 visit to Moscow.

"The central message was probably delivered in Moscow, no question about that and evidently it was a fairly robust one, because suddenly Georgian officials are absolutely sure that there is not going to be a war this summer," says Lawrence Sheets, head of the International Crisis Group's Tbilisi office.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a military analyst for the Russian newspaper "Novaya gazeta," correctly predicted that Russia would invade Georgia last August and has been warning for months that Moscow was preparing another military incursion this summer.

Felgenhauer is not convinced that warnings from Washington would be sufficient to deter the Kremlin, which he says is determined to remove Saakashvili from power. Russia, he says, is also seeking to prevent the Nabucco pipeline project, which Moscow views as a threat to its energy dominance, from being completed.

"Russia was warned that this was unacceptable but what unacceptable means is another question," Felgenhauer says.

"I'm not sure how strong the American warning was and how seriously it was taken in Moscow. But that was the only possibility left. This summit was the last chance to prevent a war this summer."

After Russia's recent Caucasus-2009 military exercises near Georgia's border, military commanders concluded that their troops were ready for battle, according to Felgenhauer. He adds, however, that "if there is no war by mid-September, then we are out of danger," due to the rugged Caucasus terrain and difficult climate.

"Right now we are in a dangerous time," Felgenhauer says. "We'll see rather soon. Now we just have to sit and wait and see. Militarily, everything is ready. The reason to go is there and the capability to go is there."

'An Unwashed Murderer'

War or no war, any message from Obama was clearly not enough to deter Medvedev from openly visiting South Ossetia on July 13 in the face of strenuous objections from Tbilisi.

Speaking to reporters in Tskhinvali with South Ossetia's de facto leader, Eduard Kokoity, Medvedev promised Moscow's aid and support to rebuild the economy of the "new state," which has thus far only been recognized by Russia and Nicaragua.

"Of course, I want to thank you for inviting me to this new country, the new state of South Ossetia, which came into being as a result of difficult, traumatic events, a country which the Russian people supported in its hour of need," Medvedev said.

"I think this first working visit by the Russian president today will lay the groundwork for future contacts."

Saakashvili, who was in Ankara for a summit on the Nabucco gas pipeline at the time, called Medvedev's visit an "immoral and shameful precedent" and referred to Kokoity as an "unwashed murderer and corrupt criminal."

In Washington, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said on July 14 that the "very fact" of Medvedev's visit to South Ossetia highlights what he called the "fundamental differences" between U.S. and Russian policy.

"We continue to urge Russia to respect Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity and facilitate stability in the region," Kelly said, adding, "I don't think that [Medvedev's visit] was any kind of step forward" in this regard.

Meanwhile in Batumi, the "USS Stout" was greeted with wine and music after dropping anchor on July 14. The "Stout's" commander, Mark Oberly, said the joint naval exercises, scheduled to begin on July 15, "demonstrate the U.S. and Georgian commitment to work together, to cooperate, and maintain maritime security."

The exercises will be held in Georgia's territorial waters between the ports of Batumi and Poti, near breakaway Abkhazia's Black Sea coast.

RFE/RL's Georgian Service contributed to this article
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by: Jacob
July 14, 2009 17:57
This whole talk about Russia supposedly wanting to start another war in Georgia is nothing but a well-orchestrated anti-Russian campaign conducted by Georgia and its allies in the Western media. I would bet $100 bucks that the whole idea was tossed to Saakashvili by one of those think tanks that he likes to hire to improve his country's tarnished image after Georgia started the war in South Ossetia. Why does anyone even listen to what Saakashvili has to say? He had discredited himself. He is a political corpse. No amount of PR will change that. The west has to find a new, more reasonable leader in Georgia to work with.

Russia never had intention of attacking, occupying, or annexing Georgia or its natural resources. Russia does have the obligation and the intention to protect Georgia's ethnic sensationalists with whom it shares a lot in common. Russia's intervention there is more than justified as Georgians have repeatedly tried to use violence to intimidate and even cleanse those ethnic minorities in Abkhazia and Ossetia.

by: Alex Miatti from: San Francisco
July 14, 2009 19:08
Russia already got what it wanted from Georgia. Russia has two big military bases in Georgia while West has Saakashvili and huge bills to maintain that country.

by: Hamik Gregory from: Reno, Nevada USA
July 14, 2009 21:07
I hope the US has no intention of sacrificing precious American lives for the sake of old Georgian monasteries because the only thing Georgians can offer to the world are indeed old Orthodox monasteries. Do they offer anything that the world wants? I don’t think so! I must admit their native dances are very exciting to watch. I enjoy them. Except for the Armenians, everybody in the south-north Caucases dances the same way. So you see, not even their dances are unique!
My suggestion to Washington! Don’t bother, unless, you deliberately want to corner a very angry Russian bear. The Caucases is more Middle Eastern than European. The region is not worth your time.

by: Alex from: London
July 14, 2009 22:02
"At first glance, the events of the past two days might indicate that Russia and Georgia might be on the brink of another conflict over the two Moscow-backed rebel regions". Based on Medvedev lambasting Tbilisi, a visit to SO and a missile launch? I appreciate that the idea is subequently dismissed, but this is pretty lazy journalism.

And for the record, Mr Felgenhauer also predicted that the most dangerous time would be around the time of Obama's visit to Moscow. No war, but no questions asked by the pundits that assumed in advance that he was right.

I assume that in late September, after the snow, someone will go and raise his incorrect predictions with him?

by: Jake from: Wisconsin, USA
July 15, 2009 09:07
The best advice for Georgia is "patience." Their birth rate, while anemic by global standards, is still one of the highest in the CIS. The most devastating condemnation of modern Russian society is its unwillingness to overrun and annex a hostile but tiny country of fewer than five million people. Russia's current crop of eighteen-year-old conscripts, the smallest yet, were the infants born amidst the Soviet collapse.

The conscript pool will only shrink in the foreseeable future until the end of the next decade when Russia will have barely twenty million fighting-age males, some of whom inevitably will be too infirm for service. The "slowing down of Russia's decline" (not even a true turnaround) during the oil-boom middle of this decade was too shallow and brief to alter Russia's downward trajectory.

Tbilisi need only let Moscow squander manpower, resources, and time in these micro-satellites whose own residents, God help them, seem more eager to become Yuri Luzhkov's gastarbeiters and dodge DPNI thugs than remain in their blighted homes.

Georgia, for all its problems (Saakashvili among them), has a viable civic society with functioning democratic institutions and healthy demographics. Russia has neither. These, not bullets and bombs, will win the war for Georgia, though its two lost territories may be uninhabited before their mid-century return to Georgian rule. How, and if, Russia can save itself is another matter.

by: Moe from: Bronx
July 15, 2009 11:42
If possible, please show (a link and excerpt) where Felgenhahuer "correctly predicted" last year's war?

IMO, he comes acroos as an overrated hack.

by: Rasto from: Londn
July 15, 2009 15:01
To Jacob:
Dear Jacob, could you please explain why Georgians do not ethnically clean these 40 000 Ossetians living in Kakheti and around Bakuriani when you are saying "Georgians have repeatedly tried to use violence to intimidate and even cleanse those ethnic minorities in Abkhazia and Ossetia".
...
Check the facts and you will find that actually it was Russian imperialistic politics in Caucasus which casued more than 300 000 Abkhasians fleeing to Turkey.
Regarding Ossetians, maybe you can also explain why Ossetian language is still generally used in South Ossetia that was part of bad Gaorgia and why is almost extinct in North Ossetia governed by good Russia.

by: Rasto from: London
July 15, 2009 15:08
Hamik
..your assumptions are bit pathetic..Geoorgian monastreies,wine, nice food,dances will be there regardless whether Georgia will be defended by US or under Russian influence...What is more important is to secure rights for Georgians and anyone on this planet to choose and decide what is best for their country..
Look to neighbourghing Armenia..do you think that they can choose what they want with Russian Army bases and 70 % of the Russian capitalin teh country ??

by: Konstantin from: Los Angeles
July 16, 2009 03:36
Whether Russia will or will not continue to expand into Georgia and all neighboring countries like locust, as they always do, is only matter of time and convinience from International and internal surcomstances -
Dont give it to them!
It was desided by Russian usurpers in 1954-56 and Russia continue to expand as a race of locust accordingly.
For instance, since 1954-56 they planed to take all Georgia and repopulate by Russians exept Tbilisi and surroundding agricultural area, where the most industrious and brilliant Georgians to be consentrated in a Georgian national district to be plagiarized and enslaved by Russian part-Neanderthals, using old and new nazi experiments, like nerve gas "Cheremushka" on them.
Russia persue it with unbendable stabborness - Sochi region and North Osetia were annexed during Lenin, Russia unleashed genocide and cleansing and annexing Abkhazia and South Osetia, they tried to do it to Mengrelia and Svanetia and almost succeded in 1993, they tried to do it to Adjaria and almost succeded not so long ago...

One important factor in Russian expansion is rearming of Russia, mostly stealing ideas from generous non-Russians, including myself and the West, then turning with unbelievable hate and bestiality against the very individuals and their nations -
Don't let them have it!

Another factor is alertness of International community that Russia trying before each attack silence and arrogantly lie, like many on this Forum -
Confront their lies!

Russia prepared and started all wars against Georgia and all other neigbors.
Even WW2 was provoked by ethnic Rusians that help bring Hitler to power, sold to him Messershmidt, sabotaged in part USA air-industries (but thanks to Alexandr Kartveli...) and desarmed most of USSR armies before WW2.

Read Chronology of August 2008 Russian invasion into Georgia on website (under construction):

www.tiptopwebsite.com/truthacademy

Download the first two parts of the article, the third part is coming out soon.

Konstantin.




by: Ares
July 16, 2009 06:36
Abkhazians are yet alive and do want to preserve their senturies old statehood. People give them the possibility!!!
It is 21 century, there should be is no place for empires like Georgia. Georgia's 62 years old rule over Abkhazia is over forever!
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