Russian-Led Bloc Threatens To Suspend Armenia Due To Its EU Ambitions

ASTANA -- Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have issued an ultimatum to Armenia, threatening to suspend its membership in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) amid tensions over Armenia’s push to join the European Union.

A joint declaration published on the Kremlin website claims that Armenian preparations for EU membership would endanger the “economic security" of the remaining member states.

It demands that Armenia agree to hold a referendum “as soon as possible” on its plans, with the option being to either join the EU or stay in the EAEU.

The move, agreed on at the EAEU summit in Astana, effectively transformed an event intended to showcase regional integration into an economic and political showdown.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian skipped the meeting, sending a lower-level delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigorian.

While widely interpreted by diplomats in Astana as a political boycott, Pashinian stated his absence was due to domestic campaign commitments ahead of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections.

Grigorian reportedly stated that Yerevan intends to maintain a constructive engagement with the EAEU but emphasized that future work must be rooted in the principles of "mutual respect, equal partnership," and national sovereignty.

Growing Russian Pressure

The ultimatum followed weeks of growing pressure from Moscow.

Ahead of the meetings, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had warned that Armenia’s pursuit of European Union integration was incompatible with the EAEU, calling them "mutually exclusive processes."

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Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova later cautioned that Yerevan’s course could impact existing bilateral energy arrangements, including preferential fuel supplies.

Coinciding with the political warnings, Russia’s agricultural watchdog, Rosselkhoznadzor, implemented a sweeping ban on Armenian agricultural imports, blocking shipments of tomatoes, fruit, and wine just as the summit kicked off.

Former Kazakh diplomat Zharas Ormantay told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service that Russia's tactics could backfire.

“At present, Moscow is expending considerable political and economic resources to keep Armenia within its current status. If that effort fails, it would be seen as a setback for Russia, weakening its standing among allies. This would lead to a decline in Russia’s reputation within the EAEU,” he said.

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The clash with the EAEU comes as Armenia has been pivoting away from its long-standing reliance on Moscow and toward realigning not only with the EU, but also with Washington. This week, Pashinian gained the backing of US President Donald Trump.

“Nikol has my complete and total endorsement for reelection,” wrote Trump on social media on May 27. His comments followed a visit by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on May 26, in which he said Pashinian promised “a brighter and more independent future for Armenia.”

A Dysfunctional Union

While the political ultimatum dominated the headlines surrounding the Astana summit, the leaders formally addressed a 20-item institutional agenda, centered around a unified framework for artificial intelligence and aimed at restructuring the regional labor market, health care, and industrial decision-making.

On the plenary floor, Kazakh President Qasym-Dzhomart Toqaev said that the share of internal trade conducted in national currencies had reached 93 percent -- a core element of a de-dollarization push by Russia, which is the dominant economy in the EAEU.

But prominent Kazakh political analyst Dosym Satbaev, director of the Almaty-based Kazakh Risk Assessment Group think tank, issued a blunt critique of the union's operational realities -- indicating that it is far from a truly functioning trade bloc and that membership brings little benefit.

“Kazakhstan within the EAEU resembles a hedgehog that continues to climb onto a cactus, crying and in pain, but still climbing,” Satbayev wrote. “As part of the protection of its own markets and sanction controls, Russia periodically introduces restrictions or additional checks on the transit of goods from third countries through the territory of Russia.”