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Czech President Petr Pavel urged Europe not to “decouple from our American ally" at the Globsec conference in Prague last week.
Czech President Petr Pavel urged Europe not to “decouple from our American ally" at the Globsec conference in Prague last week.

Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.

I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues: Globsec’s big forum in Prague last week and the upcoming EU-Moldova summit.

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Briefing #1: Globsec Forum Shows That Europe Isn’t Ready To Pull Its Weight

What You Need To Know: For three days last week I covered the 20th edition of the Globsec forum in Prague -- arguably the biggest think tank event in Central Europe -- where policy analysts, diplomats and politicians come together to discuss the latest trends and issues in global politics.

This year's theme was Commanding (In) Chaos: Time For Europe To Step Up, and it became abundantly clear from most conversations in the Czech capital that Europe simply isn’t capable of that anytime soon -- pretty much anywhere.

During the forum, news broke that Israel had launched massive missile attacks on Iran, targeting its nuclear program and killing several of Tehran’s top military commanders and nuclear scientists.

With Iran striking back and threatening to hit other targets, including American ones, most speakers in Prague were caught off guard by the speed of events and only expressed hopes that the situation wouldn’t escalate further.

It was, however, clear that Europe would have no role -– most obviously and bluntly outlined by the Czech national-security adviser Tomas Pojar.

"Can the European Union now contribute realistically to escalation or de-escalation besides saying the right things?" he asked. "No, we cannot contribute. This is the reality, we are not a player, and we will not be a player."

Deep Background: Pojar also remarked that “diplomacy is fine but if it’s not backed by economy and by army, it’s useless especially at a time of war and turbulence.”

This was in the context of the Middle East but it also rang true for the EU’s influence elsewhere as well -- even in its immediate neighborhood, such as Ukraine where the bloc’s member states are still locked out of any cease-fire or peace talks.

They are also struggling to come up with anything concrete in terms of a future military presence in Ukraine and continue look to the United States to provide security for the continent.

While participants at Globsec both privately and publicly questioned the chances of success for the administration of US President Donald Trump in dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin, few seemed to like the idea of Europe without any type of US backing.

And in recent months it appears as if most have been sufficiently convinced by the United States that it is indeed committed to NATO's mutual defense –- something that will be repeated when its 32 allies meet at the alliance's summit in The Hague next week.

NATO's director of nuclear policy, Jim Stokes, also affirmed that the “US has been extremely clear about its commitment to the nuclear deterrence in Europe.”

But fears remain going forward.

Opening the entire conference, Czech President Petr Pavel admitted that Washington had “unsettled” relations but urged Europe not to “decouple from our American ally” and added that Europe “alone has the power to push Putin to the [negotiating] table.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha agreed that Trump is “essential” for achieving peace and indicated a willingness to end the war as early as this year.

He also expressed hope that stronger economic sanctions on Russia would do the trick, pushing for the price cap on Russian oil to be lowered from the current $60 per barrel down to $30.

However, with war breaking out in the Middle East and oil prices rising sharply, serious doubts remain that the oil cap will come down at all.

Drilling Down

  • Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began more than three years ago, the West has been providing support but not nearly enough to swing the balance in Kyiv’s favor. The words of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sounded very ominous when he told conference participants via video that, “if Ukraine fails, Putin will go further.” But no one was really quite sure how much time the rest of Europe had to prepare for that eventuality.
  • Danish Europe Minister Marie Bjerre said that “our goal must be that Europe can defend itself by 2030,” whereas the Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur underlined that he wants to “be ready in 3-5 days for Estonia to defend NATO”.
  • It appears that the continent is barely ready -– at least for now. The European Commissioner for defense, Andrius Kubilius, said that Europe currently stands at 53 percent of what it is estimated to need in terms of defense capabilities.
  • Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Philip Breedlove summed up Europe's lack of investment in defense by asking: “How do we overcome 30 years of procurement holiday when we have tried to hug the [Russian] bear for 30 years?”
  • But, even if Europe will spend more and at least appear to be on the right track, it was obvious from the debates that the continent’s “awkward squad” -- as an anonymous official called Hungary and Slovakia-- will shatter the consensus even on basic things.
  • Balasz Orban, the political director of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (no relation), made it clear that “strengthening Europe does not equal strengthening Ukraine. Ukraine will not be a NATO country.”
  • And there might be soon be more governments in Europe that will make things more difficult. With Andrej Babis’s populist ANO party expected to win Czech parliamentary elections later this fall, one of his closest allies, Karel Havlicek, also offered hints of a less consensual approach coming from Prague.
  • While praising the alliance, he said that he doesn’t “agree that Russia is an immediate danger to NATO.” He also appeared to shoot down a push by its Secretary-General Mark Rutte to get alliance members to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense and military-related investment in the next seven years by arguing that “defense spending should not be about percentages, but about efficiency and transparency.”
  • The most gripping speech at the gathering came not from a politician or a diplomat. On the final day, Vlad Zadorin -- a former Ukrainian marine officer who spent 679 days in Russian captivity -- told a stunned audience about the horrors he endured.
  • With quiet composure, he explained how hunger was the worst part of his incarceration. "I used to be a burly marine who weighed 120 kilos," he said. "After my release, I weighed 60. I learned to eat household soap, snails, and worms."


Briefing #2: EU Plans Historic Moldova Summit But Stays Vague On Accession Timeline

What You Need To Know: In a historic first, the European Union will hold a summit with Moldova in Chisinau on July 4, a move signaling deeper political ties.

A draft of the summit declaration, seen by RFE/RL, says such meetings will become a regular feature of EU-Moldova relations.

On the other hand, the document is vague about the speed of the country’s EU accession process. It also urges Chisinau to do more about fighting corruption but curiously omits any mention of sanctions.

The text notes that “the EU will accelerate and further deepen its political and policy engagement with Moldova including, inter alia, through the holding of regular EU-Moldova Summits.”

This is a clear sign that Brussels is serious about forging a closer political relationship with Chisinau.

Normally, the EU only holds summits with larger countries like, for example, Brazil, China, Japan, or the United States. Since 1997, it has also held annual summits with Ukraine, and it held a summit with Turkey back in 2018 as well.

In contrast, other EU candidate countries -- such as Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia -- are not yet being offered individual summits with Brussels and must content themselves with annual EU-Western Balkans summits instead.

Deep Background: Brussels officials who spoke to RFE/RL say that the Moldova meeting is meant as a political recognition of pro-EU President Maia Sandu’s reform efforts and the liberal government’s support for her ahead of parliamentary elections on September 28. Opinion polls are showing that her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has lost support and may even lose power in the autumn.

The biggest “carrot” that Brussels wants to offer Moldova is to finally commence EU accession talks. The text of the draft declaration notes that Brussels looks forward “to the next steps in Moldova’s accession process, opening negotiating clusters, starting with the fundamental cluster as soon as possible.”

The “fundamental cluster” is Brussels lingo for all the rule of law legislation that an EU candidate country has to enact before it is eligible to join the bloc.

Interestingly, an earlier draft seen by RFE/RL had “opening all negotiating clusters” but the word “all” has been removed in the latest version of the text.

This indicates that some EU member states -- which need to unanimously decide on opening and closing all accession-related files -- are casting doubt on the European Commission’s goal of opening negotiations on all 33 policy chapters by the end of this year.

Rumors in Brussels diplomatic circles are swirling about an imminent “decoupling” of Moldova and Ukraine.

The two countries have so far walked together toward EU membership, with both getting candidate status in June 2022, for example.

However, with Hungary currently blocking Kyiv’s accession path, there have been suggestions that Moldova could be allowed to move ahead independently.

Drilling Down

  • While the draft declaration is generally complimentary about Chisinau, it does contain some thinly veiled criticism on certain key issues.
  • Brussels still has concerns about graft and the text notes that “in light of the upcoming elections, we also underscore the need to further strengthen the anti-corruption framework to uphold transparency, accountability and the integrity of the electoral process.”
  • Another line of the declaration underlines that only “some progress” has been made in areas such as judicial independence, increased transparency, and modernizing the administration of courts.
  • While summit communiques rarely offer up stirring language of any sort, the current draft is scathing on Russia, condemning Moscow for “persistent hybrid threats” aimed at undermining “democratic elections in Moldova, including information manipulation and interference, and the use of large-scale electoral corruption through local proxies.”
  • It also accuses the Kremlin of “weaponizing energy” last winter with the goal of destabilizing the country.
  • On Transdniester, a separatist enclave on the left bank of the Dniester River, the document calls on Russia to withdraw all military personnel there.
  • It is estimated that there are around 1,500 troops with Russian passports in the breakaway region, which has been administered by a de facto separatist government with Moscow's backing since the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s.
  • There has also been growing discussion in both Chisinau and Brussels about applying a so-called “Cyprus model” to Moldova. When Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, the entire island was admitted, even though the EU’s laws only applied in the south, which is controlled by the internationally recognized government. The northern part, administered by a Turkish-backed separatist authority, remains outside EU law.
  • The draft declaration leaves this possibility open for Chisinau by noting that “the EU will continue to support Moldova’s reintegration efforts and will ensure that the European path remains open and inclusive to all its citizens.”
  • Interestingly, there is no mention of any new sanctions on individuals with close links to Russia.
  • Since 2023, the EU has slapped asset freezes and visa bans on 16 Moldovan individuals. This list includes the oligarchs Ilan Shor and Vladimir Plahotniuc, who the bloc believes have destabilized the Eastern European country.


Looking Ahead

The European Parliament is holding a full plenary session this week in Strasbourg. Look out for a debate on June 18 about the detained Georgian journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli.

Facing up to seven years in jail for allegedly slapping a police officer, the reporter's case has become widely watched since her arrest in January during protests in the South Caucasus republic that followed controversial parliamentary elections in October.

The chamber will also pass a nonbinding resolution on her case on June 19, calling for her immediate release

That's all for this week!

Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.

Until next time,

Rikard Jozwiak

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition subscribe here.

Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.

I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues: Ukraine and Moldova joining the EU’s mobile roaming area & a big legal win for the EU against sanctioned Russian oligarchs.

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Briefing #1: Ukraine, Moldova Move A Step Closer To EU By Joining Bloc's Roaming Area

What You Need To Know: Ukraine and Moldova are set to take a major symbolic step toward European Union membership by joining the bloc's "roam like at home" (RLAH) mobile phone regime on January 1, 2026. One of the EU's more popular policies since it began in 2017, RLAH allows people who have a mobile contract in one EU member state to be charged domestic rates for calls, text messages, and data when visiting another country in the club. The RLAH is also applicable in the other non-EU countries of the European Economic Area -- Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway -- as well as other states in which some telecom operators have decided to align with EU legislation, like the United Kingdom. But this move is the first time Brussels has invited EU candidate countries to join this part of its single market.

Deep Background: The For Ukraine, this move is not entirely unexpected, nor is it something completely new. When the full-scale invasion of Ukraine occurred in 2022, the bloc's operators, in cooperation with several Ukrainian counterparts, struck a deal allowing Ukrainian refugees in the EU to benefit from either roaming free or very low costs while using their Ukrainian mobile phones. This benefit has been prolonged on numerous occasions by the EU since, most recently in July last year via a qualified majority (55 percent of the member states comprising 65 percent of the total EU population). In fact, EU diplomats have described this measure as one of the easiest to agree on among themselves, unlike other Ukraine-related policies such as the removal of trade barriers for Ukrainian goods coming into the bloc. Ukraine will now become a permanent member of the RLAH regime, with a final decision expected by the other members in July. A transition period is expected to be agreed upon until January 1, 2026, to make sure everything goes smoothly. During that transition period a final prolongation of the temporary roam like home provision will also be agreed on in July. Moldova, which also is expected to join Ukraine in the RLAH area by early next year, doesn't enjoy the same temporary roaming measures as Ukrainians in the EU do, but since last year Moldovan and EU operators have gradually and voluntarily lowered telecom costs.

Drilling Down

  • Ukraine and Moldova are able to join RLAH because of an opening in the association agreement that both countries struck with the EU in the past decade. These agreements provided for what is called "mutual internal market treatment" for a product or a service such as roaming.
  • This means that if Kyiv and/or Chisinau complies with all EU legislation for that product or service and the EU is happy with the implementation of the laws, they would be part of the EU's internal market in that specific area.
  • EU hopefuls in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) don't have this in their respective association agreements with Brussels because they were inked much earlier than those for the EU's eastern neighbors. Instead, the six Balkan nations created a specific "roam like home" policy among themselves with the aim of gradually reducing tariffs vis-a-vis the EU.
  • Since last year both Ukraine and Moldova have introduced various EU roaming and telecom legislation. Some relates to technical standards, networks, and pricing, while other legislation addresses practical things like the number of masts and transmitters.
  • Ukraine's parliament adopted the final necessary bill in this respect in April, and the European Commission received the final notification that all the laws had been published on June 6. It will soon recommend that EU member states vote in favor of Kyiv joining full time.
  • Moldova, on the other hand, is a few weeks behind Ukraine, but the commission hopes to be notified of all the necessary legislative changes by the end of this month.
  • While these measures in general are positive for consumers, there is no doubt that both Moldovan and Ukrainian mobile operators will lose out financially, just like EU operators did when RLAH was first introduced. And while the changes have been gradual, operators will likely compensate for their losses by raising charges for consumers in other areas.
  • There will also be questions around what territory the RLAH policy actually covers when it comes to Moldova and Ukraine. Moldova's Transnistria should be covered, and there could be parts of the Russian-occupied Donbas where it works, but Kyiv has lost many transmitters due to the fighting and Crimea -- annexed by Russia in 2014 -- is now completely covered by the Russian telecom network.


Briefing #2: EU Sanctions Score A Legal Win Over Russian Oligarchs

What You Need To Know: The European Union scored an important legal victory over Russia with its sanctions policy on June 5 as the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Luxembourg issued an opinion stating that visa bans and asset freezes of five prominent Russian businessmen deemed closed to the Kremlin are not only lawful but also Brussels doesn't need to prove their ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime. Following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU blacklisted the five Russians -- Dmitry Pumpyanskiy, Dmitry Mazepin, Tigran Khudaverdyan, Viktor Rashnikov, and German Khan -- and accused them of undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the war-torn country. The quintet, together with up to 80 other sanctioned Russians and Belarusians, petitioned the ECJ to be removed from the black list on various grounds. The cases were dismissed in 2023, and the judges at the time noted they that all five held high positions in the Russian economy, and that those sectors provided a substantial source of revenue for the Kremlin.

Deep Background: They all appealed the court's initial ruling, and before the final verdict, one of the court's Advocate Generals was requested to deliver an opinion on their appeals. This opinion isn't binding on the court, but in most cases the court rules in line with the opinion. In this case, given the clear view the Advocate General delivered, a ruling could come as early as July or after the EU court's summer recess in August. The impending ruling is also likely the end of the road for the quintet's legal quest in the EU's court system to get their sanctions removed. Given that other Russian businessmen have made similar appeals to be delisted, it's fair to assume not many will be successful going forward.

Drilling Down:

  • The opinion sets a sort of precedent and spells out one thing: The legal framework for the bloc's Russia sanctions policy appears solid.
  • The opinion states clearly that there is "a rational relationship" between sanctioning leading businesspeople who provide a substantial revenue to the Russian government and the objective of the restrictive measures.
  • The objective is stated clearly: to "exert pressure on the Government of the Russian Federation to put an end to aggression of Russia in Ukraine by reducing the financial resources available." By sanctioning businessmen in the country, the economy is harmed, and thus it increases the cost of waging war against Kyiv.
  • The key thing in the opinion, however, is that when imposing these sanctions the EU doesn't have to prove "any specific conduct of the listed person, in particular in terms of influence over the Russian Government." This is what the sanctioned people in essence wanted to appeal: that while they are economically active in Russia, they have no direct sway on government policy when it comes to the war in Ukraine.
  • It now appears sufficient to produce general links with Putin to clear the legal hurdle. When the EU decided to sanction leading Russian businessmen, they referred to a meeting organized by Putin a few days after the Ukrainian full-scale invasion with almost 40 of the most economically influential Russians to discuss the impact of the course of action in the wake of Western sanctions.
  • There are other reasons, too, that Brussels lists these five. In Pumpyanskiy's case, the EU noted he participated in the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in March 2023, in which Putin urged participants to put "patriotism before profit."
  • German Khan is one of the owners of Alfa Bank, and the bloc notes that Putin's eldest daughter, Maria, ran a charity project called Alfa-Endo that was funded by the bank.
  • Both Mazepin and Rashnikov are listed because their businesses provide "substantial resources of revenue to the state budget," whereas Tigran Khudaverdyan, executive director of one of Russia's leading technology companies Yandex, is blacklisted because the company "has been warning Russian users looking for news about Ukraine on its search engine of unreliable information on the Internet."
  • The ECJ ruling comes as a sigh of relief for the EU, which has faced some hurdles. It was battered in the same court for sanctions imposed on former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his entourage in 2014 for the "misappropriation of Ukrainian state funds." The sanctions were based on rather flimsy evidence and have since largely collapsed.
  • Brussels was also slapped on the wrist for the current Russia sanctions, notably restrictive measures on relatives of listed businessmen. Both Nikita Mazepin, the racing driving son of Dmitry Mazepin, and Violeta Prigozhina, the mother of the late Russian oligarch and Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, have won in the Luxembourg court and have since been delisted.


Looking Ahead

Globesec will host its annual forum in Prague on June 12-14. Central and Eastern Europe''s biggest think-tank event brings together politicians, analysts and diplomats from all over Europe and beyond for plenty of insights and discussions on the most pressing security issues. I will be there for all three days -- please read more about it in next week's newsletter.

That's all for this week!

Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.

Until next time,

Rikard Jozwiak

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition subscribe here.

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About The Newsletter

The Wider Europe newsletter briefs you every Tuesday morning on key issues concerning the EU, NATO, and other institutions’ relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe’s Eastern neighborhoods.

For more than a decade as a correspondent in Brussels, Rikard Jozwiak covered all the major events and crises related to the EU’s neighborhood and how various Western institutions reacted to them -- the war in Georgia, the annexation of Crimea, Russia’s support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, the downing of MH17, dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, the EU and NATO enlargement processes in the Western Balkans, as well as visa liberalizations, free-trade deals, and countless summits.

Now out of the “Brussels bubble,” but still looking in -- this time from the heart of Europe, in Prague -- he continues to focus on the countries where Brussels holds huge sway, but also faces serious competition from other players, such as Russia and, increasingly, China.

To subscribe, click here.

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