Russia's Fuel Troubles Expose Central Asia's Energy Dependence

The disruptions to Russia's energy sector due to its war with Ukraine are having a ripple effect in Central Asia, with fuel prices rising across the region and governments scrambling to find alternative sources to meet demand.

Officials have sought to reassure consumers that supplies will be sufficient and that prices will eventually come down once global disruptions stabilize.

Daniyar Amangeldiev, the first deputy prime minister of Kyrgyzstan, told reporters that rising fuel prices are unavoidable given the global geopolitical turmoil.

"There is an opportunity not to raise prices sharply, but to increase them gradually, by 1 som every two weeks," Amangeldiev said. One Kyrgyz som is equal to just over 1 US cent.

"If prices fall on global exchanges, the Agency for Regulation of the Monopolies will work with fuel-importing companies and try to reduce prices."

But for Central Asians, the spike in prices has an immediate impact.

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Azat, a Bishkek taxi driver who spoke to RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service, said rising fuel costs are eating away at his daily earnings.

"Honestly, it's becoming really difficult," he said. "We can barely make ends meet anymore."

"Gasoline for cars has gone up to 45 soms a liter. Previously, the same trip would cost around 1,200 soms; now, it costs 1,700."

"The city is constantly congested. Sometimes, we don't even cover our expenses and end up in debt," the taxi driver added.

Kyrgyz officials say the country of 7.4 million people has so far avoided the severe shortages seen in some regions within Russia itself.

Kanat Eshatov, head of the Association of Oil Traders of Kyrgyzstan, said supplies remain stable and the country has enough reserves to last.

"The situation is stable," he said. " Everything is supplied. We have sufficient reserves for more than six weeks," Eshatov said.

"The refineries that process oil products have been hit by drone attacks, which is why some are temporarily not operating."

Tajikistan Feels The Pressure

Tajikistan, with a population of 11 million, may be the region's most vulnerable country.

According to its Antimonopoly Service, 84 percent of petroleum products imported by Tajikistan in 2025 came from Russia. Consumers are already affected as gasoline and diesel prices climb, a situation exacerbated by disruptions to Persian Gulf supplies due to the Middle East war.

Abdujabbor, a taxi driver from Khujand, Tajikistan's second-largest city with 191,000 people, told RFE/RL's Tajik Service on June 25 that diesel prices have risen sharply.

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"The previous price of diesel was 9 somoni 60 dirams [about $1] per liter," he said.

"Now they are selling it for 13 somoni 50 dirams ($1.41)," Abdujabbor said. "This is already noticeable because our incomes are declining. Why did diesel prices go up? I don't know. At gas stations they only tell us that diesel prices have increased everywhere, but no one explains what it is connected to."

Tajik authorities have repeatedly blamed "external factors" for fuel price increases, without explicitly pointing to Russia as the cause.

The pressure has also been complicated by domestic policy. The Tajik government introduced a new environmental fee of 30 euros per ton on imported gasoline and diesel, adding further costs to an already strained market.

A Shock For Uzbekistan

In Uzbekistan, a country of 38 million people, the flagship airline recently announced the cancellation of several Russia-bound flights because of shortages of jet fuel.

Uzbek economist Otabek Bakirov linked the growing pressure in the country to its deepening dependence on Russian energy imports.

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"It is necessary to urgently focus on securing alternative and stable sources of gasoline and other fuels (propane and diesel) through neighboring and brotherly countries, and to move toward practical action on this issue."

The Search for Alternatives

Economist Eldar Abakirov told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that the crisis underscores the risks of relying on a single supplier.

"To solve the problem related to gasoline prices, the government needs to take risks and focus not only on one country," Abakirov warned. "It is necessary to reach agreements with countries such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran."

Erlan Kamalov, another Kyrgyz economist, said governments should prepare for a long-term shift away from traditional fuel dependence.

"Because oil is a commodity traded on exchanges, its price depends on political and geopolitical factors," Kamalov said. "It is a finite resource that cannot be renewed. Therefore, its price will continue to rise year after year."

Kazakhstan's Energy Dilemma

Unlike Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan has so far avoided a major fuel shock.

Thanks to its domestic refineries and fuel reserves, gas stations have been able to operate normally, even as Russia faces shortages. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan has also restricted exports of petroleum products to protect its domestic market.

The disruption has created an unusual situation: Russia, traditionally Central Asia's main fuel supplier, may now need Kazakhstan's help.

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Reuters reported that Moscow had approached Astana over possible supplies of AI-92 gasoline to ease shortages caused by disruptions at Russian refineries. AI-92 gasoline is an unleaded gasoline widely used in Russia and other former Soviet republics.

Speaking at a June 25 press briefing in the Kazakh Senate, First Deputy Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin downplayed reports of a fuel deal with Russia, saying discussions remained preliminary.

"There is no specific decision yet. This is only a proposal," Amrin said. "When there is a concrete decision, we will let you know."

Zhanel Kushukova, Kazakhstan's trade and integration deputy minister, said the government's priority remains protecting the domestic market.

"The main supplier of fuel for us has always been the Russian Federation," Kushukova said. "This is understandable, because Russia is nearby and has certain resource capabilities."

"However, given the current situation, we are making decisions within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Commission to reduce import customs duties in order to encourage fuel imports from third countries. First of all, this means China."

She added that export restrictions remain in place to protect domestic demand.

Suyindik Aldashev, who chairs the Senate Committee on Economic Policy, told Azattyq Asia, RFE/RL's Russian-language unit covering Central Asia, that he had heard of Russia's request but emphasized that Kazakhstan would first consider its own needs.

"I have heard about about the proposal to supply fuel," Aldashev said. "But we will first look at our own situation."

"Nobody can force us to give to this country or that country. Every state understands this. And it is not only about gasoline. It also concerns diesel fuel and kerosene. "

"Even aviation kerosene is currently in short supply for us. So, nobody is forcing us. First, we have not discussed this. Second, at the moment we do not have such a plan," Aldashev added.

Attacks on Russia's Orenburg Gas Processing Plant have disrupted Kazakhstan's energy sector.

But Kazakhstan's vulnerability to Russia is not only about fuel trade. The country's energy system remains deeply connected to Russian-controlled infrastructure, from pipelines and transport routes to gas-processing facilities.

Recent Ukrainian drone attacks around the port of Novorossiysk and disruptions affecting regional export routes have highlighted the risks of relying on infrastructure outside Kazakhstan's control.

Kazakh energy analyst Olzhas Baidildinov warned that further attacks on Russia's Orenburg Gas Processing Plant could directly affect Kazakhstan.

"Our Karachaganak Petroleum Operating project supplies raw gas to Gazprom's Orenburg plant," Baidildinov explained. "The gas is processed there and then returned to Kazakhstan as commercial natural gas and liquefied gas."

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According to Baidildinov, Kazakhstan produces around 30 billion cubic meters of commercial gas annually, while about 9 billion cubic meters, nearly a third of the country's processed gas volume, passes through Orenburg.

"Previous disruptions at Orenburg led to a 30 percent decline in oil production at KPO, but gas shortages were avoided thanks to supplies from Russia." Baidildinov said.

This time, Russia may be less able to come to the rescue. As Moscow struggles with its own fuel shortages and seeks supplies from Kazakhstan, Astana's dependence on Russian infrastructure could become an increasingly serious vulnerability.

And Kazakhstan may find itself turning more frequently to another major neighbor -- China -- potentially replacing one dependency with another.