In US-China AI Race, Kazakhstan Faces Pressure To Pick A Side

The United States and China each have initiatives racing to shape the future of artificial intelligence, and Kazakhstan may have to choose a side. As the only country to have joined both the American-led Pax Silica initiative and China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO), its longstanding multivector foreign policy is coming under new pressure as Washington and Beijing compete for technological influence.

The unusual position has drawn scrutiny from Washington as the United States seeks to limit China's influence over AI technology and its supply chains. Reuters reported last month that the US government was preparing to tell dozens of countries they must choose between competing AI initiatives.

A draft State Department letter reviewed by Reuters warned that countries joining China's rival framework could be excluded from the US-led coalition.

"To be part of everything is to be part of nothing," the draft letter said, describing participation in Pax Silica as a commitment rather than simply a membership.

The draft letter had not been sent at the time of the report, and there was no indication that Washington had formally demanded that Kazakhstan withdraw from either initiative.

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But the message underscored the growing difficulty for countries such as Kazakhstan looking to maintain economic and technological ties with both powers.

China, meanwhile, has rejected the idea that countries should be forced to choose sides. Its embassy in Washington called on the United States to stop encouraging countries to pick just one initiative and to avoid politicizing trade and technology issues.

The pressure comes as AI becomes increasingly intertwined with national security, industry, energy, and infrastructure.

Pax Silica, launched by Washington in December 2025, focuses on securing supply chains for critical minerals, semiconductors, energy, data centers and computing infrastructure needed for the AI economy. It currently has 25 signatories, including the European Union, Japan, and Singapore.

Kazakhstan signed the declaration on June 25, becoming the first Central Asian country to join the initiative.

WAICO was established in Shanghai on July 16, with 29 countries signing the agreement that created the organization. Its members include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Brazil.

The organization says it aims to promote international cooperation on AI governance, standards, and development and to reduce the technological gap between countries.

A Careful Balancing Act

For Kazakhstan, each of the initiatives offers its own set of opportunities.

Washington has said Pax Silica is intended to create trusted supply chains spanning minerals, semiconductors, manufacturing, energy, and AI infrastructure.

It could provide access to US-led investment, technology, and supply-chain partnerships for the country, and Kazakhstan -- home to vast reserves of critical minerals needed for advanced technologies and the infrastructure behind AI -- is particularly important ally for the initiative.

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WAICO, meanwhile, offers Kazakhstan a role in a China-backed framework for international AI cooperation. Beijing has promoted open-weight AI models as a more accessible alternative for countries that cannot afford or do not have access to leading proprietary systems.

Kazakhstan maintains that its participation in both frameworks is in line with its broader foreign policy. President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev said in a recent interview with China's Xinhua news agency that AI should serve humanity and countries should have fair access to modern technology.

Referring to Kazakhstan's participation in WAICO, Toqaev said, "Our approaches are in line with China's position on this issue," describing the move as a step toward an "open and effective international system" for coordinating AI efforts.

That balancing act has served Kazakhstan for years.

The resources-rich country has maintained close economic ties with China while also cultivating relations with the United States and Europe. Astana has sought Western investment in its energy and mining sectors while remaining deeply connected to neighboring Russia and China.

Trusted Partners

But AI may narrow the room for maneuver.

Unlike conventional trade, AI increasingly involves strategic infrastructure, advanced computing, data centers, semiconductors, and technologies with potential military applications.

Washington is signaling that it wants countries participating in its AI ecosystem to be trusted partners rather than simply commercial participants.

"It's difficult to see how a country can credibly position itself as a trusted partner in one technology ecosystem while simultaneously signing up for an initiative designed by China to advance a competing vision for AI," a US official told Reuters.

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Kazakhstan's critical-mineral reserves add to its importance in the emerging AI supply chain, while its geographic position makes it an important partner in Central Asia.

"I don't think Astana made a mistake by joining both blocs. But Astana seems to have miscalculated one thing: It apparently did not expect Washington to draw a red line and tell Kazakhstan that it had to choose between the two blocs," analyst Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, president of Washington-based Second Floor Strategies, told RFE/RL.

He suggested that Astana could seek talks with Washington while making clear that it does not want to choose between the United States and China.

For now, Kazakhstan has not been forced to make that choice. But the emerging contest suggests that its traditional multi-vector policy may face a harder test in technology than it has in other areas.

The question for Astana may ultimately be not simply which countries it trades with, but which technological ecosystem it relies on to build its AI infrastructure.

Kazakhstan's ability to maintain ties with both Washington and Beijing could itself be an asset for the United States, said Ken Moriyasu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. He argued that Astana's flexibility helps keep the country relevant to US strategy in Eurasia.

"This very flexible stance of Kazakhstan is very beneficial for the US strategy," Moriyasu told The Astana Times.

"Keeping Kazakhstan a trusted ally and partner in this endeavor is more important than forcing it to choose sides in Pax Silica," he said.

Written by Farangis Najibullah based on reporting by RFE/RL's Azattyq Asia.