Mobilization Migration: Is There An Uptick In Russians Fleeing Amid Fears Of A New Draft?

Sergei Rasokhin says he spent two years in hiding before finally escaping military service in Russia and recently making it to safety in Armenia.

The country took in many Russians dodging the draft in 2022-23 and now, amid growing fears of a new mobilization in Russia to boost a military depleted by the war on Ukraine, there are some indications that the numbers of Russians coming to Armenia are again rising.

There have also been recent signs of this in other countries that saw an influx of Russians in 2022-23, but the evidence is patchy and sometimes conflicting.

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In any case, if the Kremlin decides to announce a new wave of mobilization, it may wait until after parliamentary elections next month -- meaning those hoping to avoid it still have time.

Two Years In Hiding

Rasokhin told his story to RFE/RL’s Armenian Service from the safety of Yerevan, home to a thriving community of Russians who have fled the increasingly repressive environment in their homeland under President Vladimir Putin in recent years.

He said his life changed completely two years ago when, to deal with financial problems, he voluntarily signed a contract to join the Russian Army. He was told he would serve as an auto mechanic -- but soon learned he’d been tricked.

“The sergeant laughed at me. He said: ‘You were deceived. They will take you to the front line with 95 percent certainty. Don’t hope for anything else,’” Rasokhin said.

Rasokhin said he ran away from his unit and spent two years on the run, moving on from one location to another every few months, until he was eventually captured by military police.

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Instead of taking up arms, Rasokhin said he preferred to stand trial, even though he knew that deserters face up to 15 years in prison.

Awaiting trial, he decided to buy a train ticket to Belarus.

“[People] advised me to buy a ticket in cash an hour before departure, so that they wouldn’t have time to check the details. When I was at the ticket office, a man in an armed forces uniform came and took some papers. As I understood it, it was the list of passengers with tickets. And I hadn't bought one yet at that point, so maybe that saved me," he said.

Rasokhin said he hoped his story would inspire other Russians to know that there are ways to get out of the country and avoid military service.

What Do The Numbers Show?

Official statistics show an uptick of Russians entering Armenia.

Following the declaration of mobilization in September 2022, more than 500,000 Russians came to Armenia on tourist visas in the first six months of 2023.

Every year after, the numbers fell, reaching nearly 340,000 last year. But between January and June this year they’re up again -- at some 417,000 people.

Of course, this by itself does not prove an exodus. People, especially tourists, come and go. Another indicator is how these numbers compare.

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From January to May 2026, the number of Russian citizens arriving in Armenia was 7,000 higher than the number leaving.

An outlier compared to statistics for previous years, this is a fairly large number given that, according to official data from December last year, the total of Russian citizens with Armenian residence permits was 43,000 people.

An increase in people staying in Armenia would put pressure on the housing markets, and there’s anecdotal evidence of this.

Back in July, an independent Russian media outlet, Vyorstka, cited real estate agents in Yerevan talking of a sharp increase in demand from Russians.

This was confirmed by real estate agents that spoke to RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, though most declined to be quoted. One agent, who agreed to identified by his first name, Gevorg, said: “Based on my impression and my local statistics -- there is about a 30 percent increase in prices. Up to a 50 percent jump in the case of rentals.”

It was, he said, “very similar to 2022.”

The change in market conditions is doubly interesting given that it reverses a previous trend, identified by another independent Russian outlet, The Insider, in July.

“By 2025, the rental market had stabilized. Experts note a 30 percent decline in rates compared to the peak at the start of the full-scale war,” it said.

In other words, it appears the market is again on a sharp upward curve -- possibly driven or partly-driven by new arrivals from Russia.

What About Other Countries?

Back in 2022-23, Russians were also fleeing to other countries. Dramatic drone footage revealed enormous lines of traffic at the border with Georgia, for example.

On August 18, official Russian data made headlines by reporting that more than 20,000 people had crossed the main crossing into Georgia on a single day. It added that a “similar dynamic” had been observed for several days.

This "significantly exceeds the data for the same period in previous years," it said.

The Georgian authorities denied the Russian claim, however. In a statement on August 19, it said some 7,900 citizens had used the crossing to enter Georgia in 24 hours beginning at 9 a.m. on August 18.

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There may be some discrepancy on what 24-hour period the two datasets refer to, but in any case the situation is unclear.

When RFE/RL’s Georgian Service visited the border crossing on August 20, they saw no evidence of mass traffic jams or an exodus of fleeing Russians.

"I came in 2022, and back then people were waiting for days. Today, when we went through, there were only three or four cars ahead of us on the Russian side," one young Russian woman said after driving across the border.

There have also been anecdotal reports from Central Asia of dual-nationals returning from Russia due to fears of an imminent military draft.

RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service spoke to a woman who declined to be identified for security reasons. She lived in Russia for more than 20 years, gaining citizenship for herself and her children.

“When I heard that there would be a mass mobilization in the fall, the first thing I thought about was my son, who was already in his 20s, and we returned to our homeland,” she said.

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A representative of a Kyrgyz diaspora group in Russia, who could not be named for security reasons, said cases like this were on the rise.

"Kyrgyz people are leaving Russia for other places, including Kyrgyzstan, due to various pressures. There is also development and job creation in Kyrgyzstan, so many people are leaving for there,” he said.

“Recently, when an acquaintance of mine with Russian citizenship was leaving for Kyrgyzstan, he was warned at the border that ‘if you don't come back, your house and property here will be confiscated.’ Some of them, even if they have citizenship, say they won't come back. They sell their houses and leave," he added.

But, he said, other dual nationals were staying, having been rejected for military service in the previous mobilization for health or other reasons.

"People have different attitudes. There are those who remember the previous mobilization and are calm, saying, 'Even if they are called up, they won't take you,'” he said.