Ukraine's Drone War Exposes An Uncomfortable Reliance On China 

As the European Union pours nearly 6 billion euros ($7 billion) into Ukraine's drone capabilities, Kyiv has secured an exemption from procurement rules that could allow it to continue using critical Chinese components -- underscoring its uncomfortable reliance on a country closely aligned with Russia.

Kyiv's once-nascent drone industry has expanded dramatically since Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, Kyiv remains dependent on cheaper Chinese components to keep up with frontline demand. Dialogue between Beijing and Kyiv has deteriorated in recent years, marred by concerns over China's ties with Moscow.

The recent carve-out is part of a 60 billion euro ($70 billion) defense procurement loan focusing on elements that reportedly aren't sufficiently available in Europe.

Vita Holod, junior research fellow at Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences, told RFE/RL that "the EU exemption is quite revealing. It shows that neither Ukraine nor Europe can yet replace Chinese suppliers at the necessary scale, speed, and price."

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While Kyiv has cut back on the purchase of ready-made drones from China, components such as motors, lithium batteries, and fiberoptics are still in high demand.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated during a July 15 speech marking Ukraine's Statehood Day that the country was producing 10 million drones a year.

In the first six months of 2026, imports of Chinese parts had already reached around 76 percent of the total recorded for the previous year.

A report by the Ukrainian Council of Defense Industry and the Snake Island Institute, a Kyiv-based think tank, said 38 percent of the value of drone components imported by Ukraine in the first half of 2025 came from China.

"The world is witnessing China's drone war in Ukraine, where both sides are using many of the same technologies against each other," Holod said. "While Ukraine is building greater self-sufficiency and exploring alternative supply channels, Kyiv must remain cautious, wise, and pragmatic in its relations with Beijing."

Cooling Ties

Such pragmatic relations between Beijing and Kyiv have become increasingly uncomfortable as the war has progressed.

Experts are unconvinced that a possible visit to Beijing by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha will do much to shift the dial.

China has avoided openly condemning Russia's war in Ukraine, while maintaining Moscow as a close ally.

Michal Bogusz, senior fellow at the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies, said that it was unlikely Beijing would change its position on the war to take a stronger stance on a cease-fire.

He said that "the continuation of the conflict in a controlled manner that is not expanding is in Beijing's interest," he said referring to a more isolated Russia's growing dependence on China as a customer for its oil exports, as well as the potential for a prolonged war to strain unity among Western allies.

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Diplomatic exchanges between Kyiv and Beijing have been few and far between.

Zelenskyy and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have spoken directly only once since 2022. A planned visit by Sybiha to China following an invitation in February 2026 by Beijing's top diplomat, Wang Yi, did not materialize, while talk of a new invitation has yet to result in setting a date for a visit.

Bogusz said that relations have cooled as Kyiv has become more "assertive" in its handling of China's dealings with Russia. On the other hand, he added that "it's something [Beijing] anticipated because they knew that they were not going to give Kyiv what Kyiv wanted" in terms of openly pressuring Moscow to end the war.

Ukraine has sanctioned several Chinese companies since the start of the full-scale invasion for their alleged support of Russia's military.

'Hostile Interdependence'

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, Ukraine's commissioner for sanctions policy, said on July 28 that the EU's latest round of sanctions against Chinese firms for assisting Moscow's defense industry is "a necessary and justified step."

Beijing denies supplying lethal weapons to either side of the conflict.

China's ambassador to Ukraine, Ma Shengkun, wrote in a letter published by Ukrainian media on June 30 that bilateral relations required a "clear understanding of [Beijing's] objective and impartial stance on promoting peace talks." Ma also stated China's respect for the "territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha (left) met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February.

Ukraine detained two Chinese nationals in July 2025 on suspicion of espionage. Ukrainian authorities accused them of collecting information about the domestically produced Neptune anti-ship missile for Chinese intelligence.

Tim Ruhlig, senior China analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris, described bilateral ties between the countries as a "hostile interdependence."

Beijing remains Kyiv's largest trading partner, while Ukraine is a key supplier of agricultural goods to China.

"[It is] an asymmetric relationship in Beijing's favor here, but both [sides] have an interest in the continuation of some form of economic ties," said Ruhlig. Looking to the future, he also noted that "the Ukrainians will try wherever they can to make themselves more independent."