KYIV -- Early on September 30, Russia hammered Kyiv and the surrounding region with what Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskiy said was the most massive attack on energy infrastructure in the area since 2025.
A child was found dead under the rubble of a home outside the capital – one of five people killed that day, officials said, and one of tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Russian attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Among the facilities targeted that day were two combined heating and power plants in Kyiv and a thermal power plant outside the city. Those three plants, and dozens of other vital pieces of infrastructure across Ukraine, are featured in a detailed document that sets out a potential blueprint for a campaign by Moscow to inflict enormous suffering on civilians with attacks aimed at sharply cutting supplies of power, heat, and water.
Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service, obtained a copy of the Russian-language document from sources in Ukraine’s defense forces.
Emergency workers at a Kyiv aprtment building following a Russian missile strike in August 2025.
The content suggested it is the same document that The New York Times, in a report last week that cited unnamed sources, said Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal showed European officials at a September 17 meeting in Paris.
“I briefed our partners on Russia's plans to strike energy infrastructure, based on information provided by Ukrainian intelligence,” Shmyhal said in a Telegram post that day.
The document obtained by Schemes identifies four “priority goals” -- power generation and supply, water supply, sewage systems, and heating.
It contains an analysis of Ukraine's energy infrastructure and detailed calculations of the number of missiles, drones, and bombs Russia would need to cut power in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa by as much as 90 percent and drastically curtailing supplies of heat and water in those cities, which are Ukraine’s largest.
Other "priority cities" include Dnipro, Zaporizhzhya, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kryviy Rih, Cherkasy, Kropyvnytskiy, Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Ivano-Frankivsk.
The Rivne Nuclear Power Plant in western Ukraine (file photo)
A list of 60 “key targets” includes the three operating nuclear power plants that are controlled by Ukraine -- the Zaporizhzhya plant is occupied by Russia -- as well as 10 major hydroelectric power plants and dozens of other facilities.
In addition to power plants and other infrastructure, the document indicates that one aim would be to disable substations, transmission lines, and interconnectors near the western border through which electricity is imported from Europe and distributed deeper in Ukraine.
'Cold, Precise'
Shmyhal gave no details about the intelligence in his September 17 post, but in subsequent comments on national television, he indicated he had shown “two large [Russian] documents” to the Europeans at the meeting.
"It shocked our partners, just as it did us, with its cynicism -- that cold, terrorist calculation of how to destroy our energy infrastructure…. The documents are drafted in a very cold, precise manner,” he said, according to RBC-Ukraine. “They include tables and specify the quantity of weaponry needed to destroy each target. The types of weapons range from ballistic missiles to jet-powered and conventional drones.”
This description corresponds to the document obtained by Schemes. For example, it states that two Iskander missiles would be needed to take out one high-voltage installation that transmits electricity from a nuclear power plant.
The document assesses power plants solely in terms of electricity consumption, making no mention of any potential threat from radiation, for example, but includes a fine-print warning that attacks with certain types of weapons on heating plants close to populated areas could cause civilian casualties.
The document is titled Analytical Brief: Analysis Of Ukraine’s Power Generation And Utilities Sector, and is dated August 2026. The authors are not named in the copy obtained by Schemes, which is missing some pages, and the metadata has been altered. It does not indicate whom it was presented to in Russia.
However, the brief itself cites sources of its data, including publicly accessible services such as OpenStreetMap and Worldometers as well as the official websites of Ukrainian power companies and the Energy Ministry.
It also refers to "technical specifications of generating capacities" and the master plans of Kyiv and other cities. Most references cite assessments by unnamed experts or representatives of the Russian Armed Forces and an analysis by a "working group" whose members and affiliations are not identified.
Russian officials have not commented on the document or on Shmyhal’s meeting with European energy officials in Paris last month.
However, in early October, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested that Russia would step up strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, casting Russian attacks as “retribution” for Kyiv’s hits on Russian energy and logistics facilities.
A Kyiv resident warms up by a fire in front of a veteran-run food truck during a power blackout following Russian strikes on civil infrastructure in January.
Russia has been seeking to turn cold and darkness into weapons since the first year of the full-scale invasion: Attacks on power and energy infrastructure began in the initial weeks. By the autumn of 2022, it became a concerted campaign, and Ukraine’s first big blackout occurred that November.
Each autumn has brought an upsurge in attacks. The Ukrainian Prosecutor-General’s Office told Schemes it is investigating 3,374 Russian strikes on 1,177 energy facilities in Ukraine.
Ukrainian energy industry experts say that every month this summer and in September, Russia launched about 160 strikes against critical infrastructure outside the frontline zone -- meaning in and around cities far from the fighting on the ground.
But analysts and military insiders said that they were familiar with similar documents from previous years and that it fell short of being an actual attack plan.
'Maximum Hardship'
Similar documents “have been appearing -- at least to my knowledge -- since 2023,’” Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Kyiv-based Energy Industry Research Center, told Schemes.
Some of the names of the weapons have changed and there have been “certain distinctions and differences” year to year, Kharchenko said. He added that "the briefing document underwent significant changes in 2024, but since then, I haven't really seen any major alterations."
An Iskander missile at an arms show outside Moscow (file photo)
Kharchenko also pointed to something that seems evident in the format and wording of the document.
"This is not a combat order,” he said. “It is a document designed to demonstrate a concept to high-ranking Russian officials, intended to elicit a reaction like: 'Oh yes, we’ll destroy everything; the plan is excellent.'”
Russia, he said, is “attempting to destroy critical infrastructure, cut off heat and electricity to key population centers, and cause us maximum hardship.”
A Ukrainian defense industry representative whom Schemes asked to verify the document said he was already familiar with it. Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, he also said it was not an operational combat plan, but a set of calculations.
"It is a document used to determine requirements and schedule the production of the necessary quantity of munitions…. They submit this plan, which includes the underlying rationale and conclusions explaining why these specific stockpiles are required," he said.
"The actual destruction plan -- the one that allocates munitions and schedules the operation and specific strikes -- would be a separate document,” he added. “That represents the next iteration, stemming from this initial document once production capacity for those quantities has been confirmed."
New Plan, Old Plan
Such analytical reports are standard procedure, the defense industry representative said, adding that it was probably prepared by the Russian Defense Ministry or an affiliate.
“Documents of this kind existed in previous years as well, because the structure of Russia's defense industry requires such paperwork -- explanatory notes that justify the requirements,” he said. “This is a strategic vision: It is the enemy's strategy to have the necessary weaponry available to carry out such an operation."
In his televised comments about the Paris meeting, Shmyhal suggested that detailed Russian documents have helped Ukraine plan its own actions in the war.
“We understand how they intend to act," RBC-Ukraine quoted him as saying.
"Our deep strikes [on Russian facilities] will continue if the enemy attacks us. Russia will feel the pain,” he said. “Undoubtedly, we are preparing for this winter very differently than we did for the last one. We acknowledge that this winter will be a test, but we will certainly pass it."
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Ukrainian Drones Target Key Russian Oil Facility, Chemical PlantSchemes sought comment from the Ukrainian military’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), the Foreign Intelligence Service, and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), but received no response by the time of publication. Sources at the HUR said that they generally confirm the statements made by Ukraine's military and political leadership regarding Russia's plans to continue destroying Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
Schemes also asked the Energy Ministry and the state-owned companies overseeing the country’s hydropower and nuclear power plants, Ukrhydroenergo and Energoatom, whether Ukraine would be able to counter the scenario described in the analytical brief.
Ukrhydroenergo said that the requested information is classified as confidential and that "its disclosure under martial law could cause significant harm to national security interests." The Energy Ministry and Energoatom have not responded.