Ukraine's sustained attacks on Russia's oil refineries immediately plunged Central Asian countries into energy chaos, highlighting years of short-term policy decisions that have left the region without a coordinated energy strategy and sufficient diversification to withstand major disruptions.
Just this week, Ukrainian drones knocked the Omsk refinery -- one of Russia’s largest processing facilities, with an annual capacity of nearly 22 million tons of crude oil -- offline, forcing Central Asian governments, particularly Kyrgyzstan, into emergency mode.
While the front lines of the war between Russia and Ukraine may be far away, experts say the lack of policy foresight has brought the conflict to the region's front door as supply lines from Russia dry up, costs rise, and rationing becomes a reality.
“Governments in Central Asia always plan for the short term because of the logic of authoritarian power," Luca Anceschi, a professor of Central Asian Studies at the University of Glasgow, told RFE/RL.
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Ukrainian Drones Hit Omsk Oil Refinery For The First Time
"They're obsessed with preserving power, which means they mainly care about what could remove them from office. They always try to anticipate political threats, so they don't really think long term...It's a policy focused on exports rather than domestic needs. They worry about how to sell resources, not how to make the best use of them,” he added.
Central Asia's dependence on Russian oil varies from country to country, but the main items sought are Russia's refined petroleum products, such as gasoline and diesel.
Landlocked, non-oil-producing nations like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan depend on Russia for virtually all of their petroleum product supplies. But even energy-rich Uzbekistan relies heavily on Russia for refined fuel as the region's refining capacity is limited.
Therefore, disruptions at Russian refineries immediately ripple through the region, spiking fuel prices and causing shortages.
Long-Standing Failure
Kyrgyz economist Tolenbek Abdyrov says the crisis has exposed a long-standing failure to diversify national energy systems.
“We have been saying this for a long time: diversification is necessary; fuel should also be imported from other countries; more processing facilities should be built here; crude oil should be imported and refined locally so that we can produce our own fuel,” he said.
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Russia's Fuel Troubles Expose Central Asia's Energy DependenceThe current disruption has revived discussion of a regional fuel system -- an idea proposed by energy experts repeatedly since Central Asian states gained independence from Moscow. The concept envisions Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan supplying crude, Uzbek refineries processing part of it, and refined products moving across the region through coordinated transport networks.
Anceschi says such a model is technically possible but requires the kind of long-term coordination the region has historically lacked.
Still, some governments are trying to move quickly to ease the situation.
In Bishkek, Kyrgyz First Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Amangeldiev told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service, known locally as Radio Azattyk, that preliminary agreements had been reached with Beijing and Minsk for deliveries of aviation fuel and diesel.
But even if the announced supplies arrive, they would cover only about 3 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s annual diesel consumption. Kyrgyzstan consumes roughly 2 million tons of fuel annually, and about 95 percent of those supplies come from Russia.
Tajikistan has also turned to emergency diplomacy. Habibullo Nazarzoda, head of the Civil Aviation Agency, told RFE/RL's Tajik Service, also known as Radio Ozodi, that negotiations were underway with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and other countries to secure aviation fuel supplies.
"At the moment, we are gathering information about where fuel is available so that we can sign contracts and arrange imports," he said.
Uzbekistan has also accelerated talks with alternative suppliers as gasoline and diesel imports decline and local prices rise dramatically.
On July 7, President Shavkat Mirziyoev’s departure for Belarus highlighted the region’s emergency response, with Uzbekistan expected to seek additional fuel supplies from Minsk, following Kyrgyzstan’s similar efforts.
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Central Asian Leaders Groom Their Offspring As Successors With Moscow MeetingsExperts say diversification needs to involve multiple suppliers, including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, rather than simply replacing dependence on Russia with dependence on another external partner, such as Iran or China.
At the same time, they add that Central Asian governments need to invest more in domestic alternatives, particularly hydropower in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
A Turning Point?
Amid the shortages, Anceschi says, another danger lurks -- one that Central Asia's authoritarian leaders fear most.
“When you have a sharp increase in energy prices and economies that remain highly carbon-intensive, virtually every aspect of daily life depends on hydrocarbons," he says. "That creates a serious squeeze on purchasing power and raises the cost of living, making people poorer."
This pressure, in turn, creates a potential political challenge for the region’s authoritarian governments.
“If this situation continues -- and we can't say that it will, but we also can't say that it won't -- this could become a turning point for the local regimes,” Anceschi said.