First Alyaksandr Lukashenka tried the carrot and then he tried the stick.
But neither seem to be working.
Faced with massive protests against an unpopular tax on the unemployed, the Belarusian strongman suspended the tax.
And when the protests persisted, Lukashenka turned to his old tried-and-true methods -- arrests and intimidation.
But the unfolding crisis in Belarus, driven by economic hardship and declining living standards, is showing no signs of abating.
And as the drama unfolds, the Kremlin -- ever wary of losing another client -- is watching attentively.
So what happens next?
On this week's Power Vertical Podcast, we take a close look at the Belarusian Spring, the reaction from the regime and Moscow, and where it all may lead.
Joining me will be Alyaksey Znatkevich of RFE/RL's Belarus Service and Maryna Rakhlei of the Fund for Belarus Democracy at the German Marshal Fund.