Twenty-five years after serving as the global launchpad for the 9/11 attacks, Afghanistan has come "full circle" -- with the Taliban retaking power after a 20-year US-led military presence and Al-Qaeda operatives again finding safe haven in the country.
So far, this has not led to major terror acts in Western capitals plotted in Afghanistan, let alone anything like the 9/11 attacks.
But former military, diplomatic, and intelligence officials, as well as regional experts, have shared mixed views in interviews with RFE/RL on why this is. Some argued that the situation now is fundamentally different to that before 9/11. Others warned of a resurgent threat and a "ticking bomb."
Following 9/11, Washington decided to support an alliance of anti-Taliban forces to drive the Taliban from power and hunt down Al-Qaeda leaders based in the country. But this turned into a 20-year war with an enormous financial and human toll.
In 2020, during Donald Trump's first term as US president, an agreement was signed with the Taliban under which international forces would withdraw and the Taliban would "not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including Al-Qaeda, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies."
Under the deal, the Taliban also committed not to allow "recruiting, training, and fundraising" by such groups or individuals.
The Return Of Al-Qaeda
The withdrawal eventually took place in 2021, under President Joe Biden. Since then, numerous reports by United Nations sanctions teams have documented the return of Al-Qaeda members to Afghanistan.
One such report, in December 2025, described Afghanistan as the "symbolic homeland" for the group and noted "personal relationships and intermarriages" between Al-Qaeda and Taliban members.
"It is already harboring terrorists who have international aspirations. The next question is going to be whether they're going to carry those out. But has Afghanistan come full circle to where it was before 9/11? Yes, it has," former US diplomat Annie Pforzheimer told RFE/RL.
Pforzheimer was the US deputy head of mission in Kabul in 2017-18 and acting deputy assistant secretary of state responsible for Afghan affairs in 2018-19.
Looking Back: Sights & Sounds Of 9/11
"I see this as both direct and indirect threats against the rest of the world," she said. "Al- Qaeda is still there and all too powerful given its history."
General HR McMaster, who served as US national-security adviser in 2017-18, shares Pforzheimer's concerns. He told RFE/RL it was a "self-delusion" to expect the Taliban to stick to the deal.
"They are a terrorist organization," he said. "What we should be doing is weakening the terrorist government in Afghanistan."
Both Pforzheimer and McMaster emphasized that Al-Qaeda is not the only dangerous group active with Taliban blessing in Afghanistan. Indeed, UN reports have also noted how Al-Qaeda has worked with the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group to carry out cross-border attacks into Pakistan. Islamic State militants are also present in Afghanistan and have carried out attacks there and in Pakistan.
Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank focused on security issues, told RFE/RL that Afghanistan was a "witch's brew" of groups that resembled "a ticking bomb."
'Lived Experience Of 9/11'
But other experts urge caution. Much has changed since 9/11 and indeed since the Taliban retook power in Afghanistan. The group is now actively reaching out to seek international cooperation, even recently sending a delegation to meet with the European Union in Brussels, and has been recognized by Russia as Afghanistan's legitimate government.
While outreach has been met with a cool response in the West due to the Taliban's harsh restrictions on women's rights and general human rights abuses, some experts believe the movement's leadership has a tighter rein on groups such as Al-Qaeda than in the past.
"A major difference now relative to pre-9/11 is that the Taliban lived through the experience of 9/11 and the ramifications that that brought, and so I have to believe they are keeping a very close eye on what these members of Al-Qaeda are doing," Jonathan Schroden, chief research officer at CNA, a Washington-based think tank, told RFE/RL.
Schroden, who is finalizing a book on the history of US counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, said the country is now not the key focus.
"If you're trying to combat the most virulent Al-Qaeda affiliates at this point in time, those exist in Africa, whether it's Al-Shabaab or the West African various groups that carry an Al-Qaeda affiliation. Those are the most active, the most violent," he said.
The latest US Counterterrorism Strategy, published in May, also emphasizes threats from these and other geographical areas, and Schroden is not alone with his assessment of the situation in Afghanistan.
Carter Malkasian, a former special assistant for strategy to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, now at the National War College, wrote recently in Foreign Affairs that "the absence of terrorism" after five years of Taliban rule was indicative that things had changed in Afghanistan.
Malkasian, who was a political officer in Helmand Province in 2009-11, challenged UN reporting to say "there is little evidence to suggest that Al-Qaeda is organizing, fundraising, or training on Afghan territory" but acknowledged that intelligence was patchy.
"Washington's ability to monitor Afghanistan is not what it was in 2020, let alone 2011. The United States may be unable to detect terrorist plotting and training in mountain villages or in the backstreets of Kabul, Kandahar, or Jalalabad," he wrote.
This was a point picked up by Schroden, who noted there has been no US strike in Afghanistan since it killed Al-Qaeda's then leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, in Kabul in 2022.
"Either the US has so little insight into what's happening there that it can't generate targets to strike, or there just aren't the types of high-value targets to strike in Afghanistan today as there once were," he said.
