An excerpt:
It remains unclear whether Moscow intends to launch a full-scale military attack on Ukraine, Pavel Felgengauer says; but if it plans to, there are compelling reasons – deteriorating weather in the fall and the new round of the Russian military draft in October – to think that it will begin in the next several weeks.
The Russian military analyst says that “Russian forces have been brought to full military readiness and moved up to the borders of Ukraine.” And while this at one level at least is only “saber rattling,” it is clear that it is possible that this will lead to a full-scale military conflict.
Indeed, if such an expanded invasion doesn’t begin, then it is far from understandable “why all this is being organized because the forces that have been moved forward are very serious.” To be sure, Moscow has not called up the reserves, but it doesn’t have to because “even without them,” Moscow can assemble “more than 100,000 men” for an attack.
That concludes our live-blogging of the Ukraine crisis for Tuesday, August 30, 2016. Check back here tomorrow for more of our continuing coverage. Thanks for reading and take care.