The United States announced on March 19 that it is easing sanctions on several Belarusian companies, including Agrorozkvit, Belaruskali, and its marketing arm, the Belarusian Potash Company, after a deal was agreed to release 250 prisoners being held in Belarus.
The measures have been in place since 2021 when the regime of authoritarian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko forced a commercial jet en route from Greece to Lithuania to land in Minsk to detain Belarusian journalist Raman Pratasevich and his partner Sofia Sapega.
The easing of sanctions and the prisoner release, the latest in a series of such moves, highlights a thaw in relations between Washington and Minsk that began with the start of the second term of President Donald Trump.
RFE/RL takes a closer look at what effects these sanctions -- particularly the easing of restrictions on Belarusian fertilizers -- can have on both Minsk and globally, as the world faces ever-growing price hikes due to the war in Iran.
Why Is Potash So Important?
To put it simply: food production. Potash refers to mined or manufactured salts that contain potassium in a form that dissolves easily in water. Together with nitrogen and phosphorus, it is used in fertilizers needed to sustain the entire crop-growing cycle in crucial foodstuffs such as wheat, rice and maize -- products that provide over 40 percent of global caloric intake.
SEE ALSO: Washington Eases Sanctions On Minsk As Belarus Releases 250 PrisonersIn the northern hemisphere, spring is the most important time of year when it comes to fertilizers. It is currently the season for wheat, sugar beet, and rapeseed to receive a crucial second or even third round of fertilizer application.
A shortage of fertilizers due to spiraling costs can lead to food scarcity in poorer parts of the world and increased food prices in developed countries.
And Why Is This Important For Belarus?
Various types of potash-based fertilizers have been the country’s top exported commodity with estimates that they brought in over $1 billion in 2024. Belarus accounts for around 15 percent of the global share of fertilizer production.
It used to have an even greater share before it was targeted by various Western sanctions imposed after a deadly crackdown on the opposition and civil society that followed a 2020 presidential election in which Lukashenko claimed victory despite widespread claims of fraud. That year, the sector totaled almost $2.5 billion from fertilizer trade. Locked out from lucrative US and European markets, Belarus instead targeted big fertilizer importers such as Brazil, China, and India. Despite that, trade volumes have dwindled.
Will The EU Follow And Also Lift Sanctions On Belarus?
It certainly doesn’t look like it. In late February, the EU unanimously extended its economic sanctions on the country by another year. Those measures include an import ban on Belarusian nitrogen-based fertilizers and targeted sanctions on companies such as Belaruskali.
According to several EU officials that RFE/RL spoke to on condition of anonymity, the United States has not put pressure on the bloc to ease its restrictive measures or allow the transit of these Belarusian products through its territory.
And while potassium-based fertilizers still can be imported, they are slowly being phased out as well. Last year, the EU added duties of 40-45 euros ($45-50) per ton on top of a 6.5 percent tariff on the product from both Belarus and Russia. And while that wasn't much of a hit, the duty will rise to 60 euros per ton this summer and then to 80 euros next year, before it finally goes up to 350 euros per ton by 2028. The increases essentially make it economically unviable for markets abroad to buy Belarusian products.
The question is whether European farmers, one of the strongest lobby groups in the EU, will want to lower or abolish those tariffs if production costs keep rising this year. Europe’s own fertilizer production is considerably more expensive due to stricter environmental legislation and a lack of cheap gas. A qualified majority of the 27 EU member states is needed to reverse the current sanctions policy and with markets squeezed it could be one to watch.
How Does The Iran Conflict Figure Into This?
In several ways. With strikes being launched at targets around the Persian Gulf, shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt. The waterway carries about one-fifth of the world's energy. It also handles some 20-30 percent of global fertilizer exports, including around 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade -- a key component in synthetic fertilizers. Critically, 50 percent of all global sulfur shipments pass through the strait; as a byproduct of oil and gas processing, sulfur is an essential ingredient in phosphate fertilizer production.
Since the outbreak of the war, global fertilizer prices have increased by 25 percent and are expected to soar. Asia is particularly vulnerable. It takes a majority of both the LNG and fertilizer exports traveling from the Persian Gulf. India, which is in desperate need of potash before the monsoon season starts in June, is perhaps the country to watch but also sub-Saharan Africa. While the continent is not a big fertilizer importer in relative terms, many African farmers don’t have the financial capacity to absorb global price increases and might instead cut yields creating local food insecurity.
Higher global oil and gas prices will also have implications for farmers in the West as post-production costs such as transportation, refrigeration, and milling are expected to soar.
Can Belarus Expect Increased Export Revenue Soon?
Potentially, although it is not that straightforward. Brazil, China, and India could increase their potash imports now, as the likelihood of being punished by secondary US sanctions have diminished further. But there are also complications.
For starters, EU sanctions remain on potash, meaning that Belarus can’t transport the product the fastest and cheapest way: via the ports of the Baltic states, notably Klaipeda in Lithuania. That means that Belarus will still have to ship its potash on Russian railways to St. Petersburg, which takes a longer time. These routes are also overloaded with Russian potash, which takes precedent. Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of the product, claiming one-fifth of global exports and is looking to exploit the market opportunity presented by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
It is also unclear whether the US, another major fertilizer importer, is particularly interested. Getting the stuff all the way from Belarus may not make too much sense as Canada, by far the global leader in fertilizer exports, is a closer and easier option.