On the opening day of the war, Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles in massive salvos aimed at overwhelming US and Israeli air defenses through sheer numbers. Most were intercepted.
But since February 28, Tehran has launched fewer short and long-range missiles -- about several dozen per day on average. Yet its hit rate has increased, according to military analysts analyzing open-source data.
Why?
That is partly down to the United States and Israel degrading Iran’s military capabilities, but also Tehran conserving its remaining arsenal and becoming more selective in what it targets, experts say.
“US and Israeli strikes have clearly caused significant damage to Iran's launcher infrastructure,” said Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. “That physical attrition likely accounts for a significant share of the launch rate decline.”
“But Iran also seems to have also made a deliberate choice to change strategies,” she added. “Over time, Iran has shifted toward smaller, more precisely targeted salvos aimed at specific high-value targets.”
SEE ALSO:
Trump Tells Countries To 'Go Get Your Own Oil!'Those targets include key US military installations and radar systems in the Middle East, the critical oil and gas infrastructure of America’s Arab allies in the Persian Gulf, and industrial and energy sites in Israel.
By firing a relatively small number of missiles, Iran appears to be achieving its core war aims -- expanding the battlefield, disrupting the global economy, and imposing direct costs on the United States and its allies.
'Few Rockets Left'
Eliminating Iran’s large arsenal of ballistic missiles has been a key aim of the monthlong war, with the United States and Israel pummeling the Middle Eastern country’s above-ground missile launchers and stockpiles as well as its underground missile storage factories.
US President Donald Trump said on March 26 that Iran had “very few rockets left.” Other American officials have claimed Tehran’s ballistic missile capabilities have been obliterated.
Israeli and US officials have said more than 10,000 Iranian targets have been hit since the air strikes began.
Washington has pointed to a 90 percent drop in Iran’s missile launches since the beginning of the war as evidence of its success in all but eliminating Tehran’s missile program.
Israel has said at least 70 percent of Iran’s missile launchers and stockpile has been destroyed since the start of the war.
Still, air raid sirens are a daily occurrence across the Middle East.
The Islamic republic is firing 20 to 30 ballistic missiles per day on average, according to military analysts tracking Iran’s salvos. On top of that, the country continues to launch scores of cheap but deadly drones each day with devastating effects.
Your browser doesn’t support HTML5
Iranian And Israeli Oil Facilities In Flames As Strikes Continue
That, experts say, suggests that Iran still retains access to missile launchers and stockpiles, despite heavy US and Israeli bombardment. Iran also appears to be turning increasingly to mobile missile launchers.
A Reuters report appeared to contradict US and Israeli claims that Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles has been effectively wiped out. The news agency quoted its sources on March 27 that the United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Tehran’s stockpile of missiles.
Dr. Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute, said Iran has “invested in a massive missile and drone capacity which is relatively well-dispersed, hardened, and concealed across the country's large expanse and difficult terrain.”
“It's likely that the Trump administration and Israel have overstated how much they have degraded Iran's ballistic missile and drone capabilities,” he said. “The US and Israel may have also underestimated Iran's missile stockpile and launcher capacity.”
Estimates of Iran's short-range ballistic missiles, alone, range from 2,000 to 8,000.
“In other instances, the US or Israel are striking the entrances of Iranian underground ‘missile cities,’ technically disabling them,” Sabet added. “But we know the Iranian military has been training on how to quickly re-open entrances of missile cities, allowing them to ‘restore’ what has been counted as lost missile stockpiles and launcher capacity.”
SEE ALSO:
Iranian Strike Wounds US Troops In Saudi Arabia As Houthis Enter WarHigh-Value Targets
Meanwhile, despite the degradation of its arsenal, Iran's hit rate has steadily increased during the war, according to military analysts analyzing open-source data.
The United States and its Arab allies have expended high-end missile interceptors to block Iranian barrages. Israel has been forced to ration its most capable defensive weapons, The Wall Street Journal reported, leaving it more vulnerable to further Iranian attacks.
The US military has fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles during the war, according to The Washington Post. Only a few hundred are made each year, leading to supply concerns.
Gaps in air defenses could also be the result of detection failures, according to Responsible Statecraft, an online magazine affiliated with the Washington-based Quincy Institute think tank. Iran has struck the radars and sensors that form the basis of the integrated air defense network shared by the United States, Israel, and Persian Gulf allies.
Experts say Iran has also become more selective about when, where, and at what it fires its missiles, saving its remaining arsenal for high-value targets.
In a major breach of US air defenses, an Iranian missile and drone strike hit the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, wounding at least 12 American troops and heavily damaging at least two KC-135 aerial refueling planes.
On March 21, Iranian missiles for the first time struck the towns of Arad and Dimona in southern Israel, injuring scores of people. The towns are located close to Israel’s key nuclear research installation and reactor, one of the most protected installations in the country.
“By concentrating its drones and missiles against large, fixed infrastructure, such as refineries, airports, and power facilities, even an Iranian near miss can cause significant damage,” said Grieco of the Stimson Center.
“Each successive wave has also generated operational feedback that Iran is likely incorporating, learning which trajectories and timing windows offer the best odds of penetration,” she added.
Grieco said she expects Iran's hit rate to hold steady or continue to creep upwards unless there is a cease-fire or a dramatic shift in the war.