Caught in the cross fire of the United States and Israel's war with Iran, America's allies in the Persian Gulf face a stark choice: maintain their defensive posture or join the fight against the Islamic republic.
Iran has fired thousands of drones and missiles at US military and diplomatic facilities and damaged key energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait since the war began on February 28. By choking off the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global oil and gas supplies, Tehran has also robbed its Arab neighbors of their key exports.
Facing what they consider to be an existential threat, Saudi Arabia and the UAE -- the Gulf's largest economies and military powers -- are considering a shift to a more offensive posture, according to media reports, a move experts say could expose them to even harsher Iranian retaliation.
Experts say Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unlikely to join the war directly but could expand their logistical support to the United States and put economic pressure on Iran.
"In practice, 'joining the war' would most likely mean greater access for US forces to bases and airspace, tougher enforcement against Iranian commercial and financial networks in the Gulf, and tightly limited defensive military actions -- not an open-ended bombing campaign on Iran," said Christopher Davidson, a scholar of Middle East politics and a fellow at Durham University in the United Kingdom.
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That already appears to be under way. Riyadh recently agreed to allow US forces to use the King Fahd air base, located near the Red Sea in the southwest of the kingdom, The Wall Street Journal reported on March 23.
That would mark a significant shift. Saudi Arabia, like its Arab neighbors, had pledged that its airspace and military facilities would not be used to attack Iran.
Iran has accused the Gulf states, many of which house US military bases, of aiding the American war effort. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on March 25 there was "evidence that shows that services were provided to the Americans by regional countries."
Riyadh ordered the expulsion of Iran's military attache and four embassy staff on March 21, citing what it called continued Iranian attacks on Saudi territory.
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Days earlier, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan told reporters that the country's "patience with Iranian attacks is not unlimited." He added: "Any belief that Gulf countries are incapable of responding is a miscalculation."
In the past three weeks, Iranian drones and missiles have targeted key oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil. Iran has also struck the US Embassy in Riyadh.
The UAE, meanwhile, has cracked down on Iranian-linked institutions in recent weeks, closing a hospital, a social club, and several schools.
Last week, the UAE closed the Iranian Hospital, a state-affiliated health facility in Dubai. Employing around 700 people and run by the Iranian Red Crescent Society, the hospital was one of the oldest health facilities in the country.
In the harshest criticism to come out of the UAE, Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said in a tweet on March 22 that the country would not be "blackmailed by terrorists," in what appeared to be a reference to Iran.
His comment came in reply to former French Ambassador to the US Gerard Araud, who criticized remarks by UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash, who said Abu Dhabi's focus should not be on reaching a cease-fire with Tehran but curbing Iran's "nuclear threat, missiles, drones, and the intimidation of maritime straits."
Iranian drones and missiles have also wreaked havoc in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, damaging oil and gas facilities and causing power blackouts. The United States and Israel, too, have hit Iran's civilian infrastructure, including oil depots and a desalination plant.
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Despite the escalatory rhetoric, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unlikely to risk entering a direct military confrontation with Iran, experts say.
"Both countries have infrastructure which is very vulnerable to Iranian attack -- power plants, desalination plants, and residential tower blocks," said Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy program at the Washington Institute For Near East Policy.
"Both also have minority Shi'ite Muslim communities with a pro-Iran affinity," he added. "Getting more involved in the war will only worsen their predicament."
If the Islamic republic survives the war with the United States and Israel, the Gulf states will confront a more emboldened and radical Iran, experts say. But if there is regime collapse, it could unleash chaos and spill over into the region.
The best-case scenario for the Gulf states is not regime change but "mostly indirect, carefully calibrated support to the US, which restores deterrence against Iran, deepens security ties with Washington, and constrains Iranian leverage without triggering major escalation on Gulf oil," said Davidson.
"The worst-case outcome is that deeper, especially offensive, involvement by Saudi Arabia or the UAE helps fuel a cycle of Iranian and proxy attacks that damage energy facilities, disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, scare off investment, and drags them into a long, expensive regional war," he added.