Iran’s clerical establishment is at its weakest point in decades, facing unprecedented unrest at home and threats of military action from abroad.
The United States is weighing military options against Iran after the authorities waged a bloody crackdown on mass protests from January 8-9 that killed thousands of people.
The protests and the prospect of US military action, experts say, could lead to the fall of Iran’s theocracy, which is also grappling with an economic collapse.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda spoke to Hatam Qaderi, a Tehran-based academic and longtime critic of the authorities, about the factors behind Iran’s brutal crackdown on the protests, the prospect of US military action against Tehran, and a possible transition from the Islamic republic.
RFE/RL: Iran is in a unique and complex situation. Some suggest the Islamic republic could end. Is that realistic?
Hatam Qaderi: What happened three weeks ago was extremely bloody. It was, without a doubt, one of the bloodiest days in recent Iranian history. It has made any transition in Iran very difficult. The events were very bloody, and I see three main reasons for this.
The first is that this massacre was organized and premeditated and was not just a reaction to the presence of people in the streets. The second reason is that they believed that with a fundamental, large‑scale killing, they could prevent people -- in the case of war -- from coming into the streets and supporting foreign forces. The third reason relates to political, and especially economic, developments. Economic collapse mobilizes the impoverished. Many people have been driven to or below the poverty line, and in such a situation, an army of the hungry can become active. With a massacre, the Islamic republic could intimidate them and keep the situation under control.
SEE ALSO: The Tehran Street Corner Used For Iran's Combative PropagandaThere is also a fourth factor, which I consider at least as important as the others: it relates to [Supreme Leader] Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s psychological state. Given the major failures he has faced, his patience is exhausted. He cannot tolerate any opposition, which contributes to the current state of Iranian society. The hardcore elements of the state will resist until the end, unless the more moderate elements can persuade them otherwise.
RFE/RL: The authorities have attempted to distinguish between peaceful protesters and “rioters.” What’s behind this?
Qaderi: They have always framed protests this way. I can accept that some protesters may have turned to violence. I can even accept that some others might have come from outside and added fuel to the situation. But there is no doubt that the primary responsibility for the killings lies with the Islamic republic. In my view, what governs the Islamic republic outwardly is religiosity, but in reality, it is a lust for power. And if we consider the psychological state of Ayatollah Khamenei, we see that it is completely consistent with what happened.
RFE/RL: Is the possibility of a US military strike tied to the Western perception of the Islamic republic being at its weakest?
Qaderi: The Islamic republic does not have the capacity to neutralize their technological and military capabilities. If a war happens -- which, in my view, is likely -- it will not be as protracted as the Islamic republic imagines. It will not be a case where missiles will tire out Israel and the United States, those neighboring countries will get exhausted, and America will be consumed by its own domestic problems.
RFE/RL: Would this make a transition from the Islamic republic more difficult?
Qaderi: Look, the transition has completely become bloody. I’m telling everyone that it has turned bloody, and I want to emphasize that activists -- those emotionally tied to Iran’s destiny -- must try to prevent this situation from becoming even bloodier.
SEE ALSO: Amid Specter Of Possible US Strikes, Iran's Neighbors Brace For BlowbackRFE/RL: We are not seeing cracks in state apparatus. Why is that?
Qaderi: A rational transition never happens anywhere. Transitions usually arise from strong emotional states. People don’t sit down first and calculate what to do; their emotions surge, then their minds engage, and it becomes a complex situation. My view is that the state’s capacity for repression worked this time. I’ve said before that Ayatollah Khamenei doesn’t really engage in political maneuvering. He stands firm and is not willing to yield.
RFE/RL: Do Iran’s leaders think the Islamic republic is ending, or do they believe the system is entrenched?
Qaderi: I think they cling to two things: ideological belief and hope for a miracle. They imagine that if they continue to resist, some divine intervention will save them. But Khamenei himself is exhausted. A leader who is tired means he has no hope for his own preservation. He no longer has a real plan to govern society, to solve crises, or to examine them. I have said many times that there is no stability within his governance, no social consensus, and the government cannot actually execute its main functions. The economy is collapsing. All of this shows that, from the perspective of those in power, the only thing left to do is pray and hope for a miracle.
RFE/RL: Can we say the recent unrest had any tangible results?
Qaderi: What happened primarily reflects a transition away from the establishment. If it leads to the overthrow of the Islamic republic, then all of this becomes an achievement. But if that does not occur, then we will have a catastrophic situation in Iran.
At least as long as the core of the Islamic republic remains in power and external conditions remain chaotic -- and I think they will -- the Islamic republic is unwilling to make fundamental concessions. They will not accept fundamental change, including acceptance of Israel. For that reason, war is likely to occur, and we must think about the conditions after the war.
RFE/RL: Do you have a clear picture of what comes after a possible war?
Qaderi: I don’t have a clear picture. Perhaps some might think, “Once the Islamic republic is gone, everything will be easy and bright,” but that will not be the case. And I’m not saying we should support the Islamic republic -- absolutely not. My point is that opposition figures calling for the end of the Islamic republic must also think about what comes next and what kind of future we will have. The future might not be bright, but whatever it is, it will be better than the future under the Islamic republic, which is the main cause of all the bloodshed and brutality in Iran.