Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to a massive US-Israel bombing campaign has wreaked havoc on world energy markets and sent oil prices soaring.
Things could get even worse, experts say, if passage through the Bab al-Mandab Strait -- another crucial shipping route in the Middle East -- is also disrupted.
A choke point off Iran's coast, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and global markets via the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Likewise, Bab al-Mandab is a narrow passage for ships entering or exiting the Red Sea, whose Yemeni coastline is largely controlled by the Huthi rebels, an armed group backed by Iran.
A US-designated terrorist organization that has previously attacked international ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, the Huthis -- one of Tehran's most potent allies -- have so far stayed out of the US-Israeli war on Iran. If they do enter the fray, there will be even more shock waves across energy markets, experts say.
"The Huthis' threat here is a real one," said Gregory Brew, a historian of Iranian oil and a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait accounts for around 6 percent of the world's seaborne-traded oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, has been redirecting millions of barrels of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via its East-West pipeline since the war began on February 28.
"There's a large number of tankers that are now making the Red Sea transit to pick up crude" from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu, the country's only other oil-export route, said Brew. "This is very important for oil markets because it relieves pressure from the total shutting of the Persian Gulf."
"But if the Huthis attacked Yanbu and if they did enough to disrupt exports from the terminal, then you're looking at" a disruption of 7 millions barrel per day, he said.
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The Huthis have not made a formal announcement of joining the Iran war. But their leader, Abdul Malik al-Huthi, has said the group was ready to strike any time it sees fit.
"Regarding military escalation and action, our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it," he said in a televised speech on March 5.
Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency said on March 12 that the Huthis were on full alert and could join Tehran's war effort. Fars warned that the involvement of the Huthis in the war could lead to the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
It is unclear if the Huthis' absence from the Iran war is deliberate or a sign of the group's current weakness.
US and Israeli air strikes have degraded the Huthis' fighting capabilities in recent years. The strikes were in response to the Huthis' missile and drone attacks on Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea. In May 2025, the group signed a cease-fire deal with the United States.
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The Huthis are a key member of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, its loose network of proxies and militant groups against archfoe Israel. But the Huthis retain considerable autonomy and Iran has only limited control over the group's actions, experts say.
Another member of the axis, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, has opened a second front in the war by firing rockets and drones into Israel. That has triggered a devastating military response from Israel, which has sent ground troops into Lebanon and waged a deadly aerial campaign.
"I think the Huthis' fiscal and military situation would discourage them from engaging in large-scale hostilities," said Brew. "The US and Israeli campaigns did real damage to the Huthis' position in Yemen. They're struggling to pay their fighters."
SEE ALSO: Iran's Navy Is Largely Gone. The Threat To The Strait Of Hormuz Is Not.But Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the Huthis' decision to stay out of the war is a calculated move coordinated with Iran.
"Rather than activating all fronts at once, Iran appears to be managing escalation gradually and keeping the Huthis in reserve," said Nagi. "In this sense, the Huthis function as an important card that can be played later, especially given their ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping and create wider economic and security pressure."
Holding the Huthis back preserves that leverage, Nagi said.
"If the military pressure on Iran increases or the war enters a more critical phase, the Huthis could still jump in despite the potential costs on their domestic front in Yemen," he added. "Their current restraint therefore looks more like timing than reluctance to get involved."