Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has decentralized its command-and-control structure, handing junior ranks more power to respond to the massive US-Israeli aerial bombardment of the Islamic republic.
The joint air campaign that began on February 28 has killed numerous senior military and political leaders, including IRGC chief Mohammad Pakpour and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had the final say on all matters of the state.
With its leadership decimated, Iran has activated a so-called mosaic defensive strategy, which is designed to empower local IRGC commanders during wartime. While boosting the resilience of Iran's armed forces, the strategy also raises the risks of miscalculation, experts say.
"It is designed to help the local provincial IRGC and their accompanying Basij elements to defend against an outside invading force," said Farzin Nadimi, a defense specialist at the Washington Institute.
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Tehran Hit By Most Intense Strikes Of War
The IRGC, the elite branch of Iran's armed forces and the backbone of the country's theocracy, is believed to have around 150,000 troops, with army, navy, and air units. It also commands the volunteer Basij paramilitary force, which is estimated to have around 1 million members.
Decentralization has been a key part of the IRGC's doctrine since around 2009, when the force was reorganized. Each of Iran's 31 provinces has its own IRGC headquarters, command-and-control structure, and chain of command.
"Every province is a mosaic, and the commanders have the ability and power to make decisions," said Nadimi. "So, when they are cut off from their command in Tehran, they can still be able to function as a cohesive military force."
Speaking to Al Jazeera TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on March 1 that "our military units are now independent and somehow isolated, and they are acting based on instructions -- general instructions -- given to them in advance."
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The approach appears to be working for now. Iran has responded to heavy US and Israeli bombardment by firing unprecedented barrages of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones at Israel, US military and diplomatic facilities across the Middle East, and critical energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
"That implies the command-and-control system is still functioning, at least for now," said Sascha Bruchmann, a military and security affairs analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. "The region is likely to experience an ongoing Iranian retaliation campaign for as long as there are missiles and launchers there."
But it is unclear if the IRGC can maintain cohesion as the United States and Israel strike the country's military infrastructure, including its stockpiles of short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, and target mid-ranking provincial commanders.
If the IRGC runs out of missiles or if most of its facilities are damaged or destroyed, the force has "few capabilities beyond their strategic deterrents," said Bruchmann.
Iranian forces rely heavily on missiles and drones, and "with their production facilities above ground hit, the capacity to replenish stocks is at least in doubt," he added.
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Iran's mosaic strategy is designed to make the IRGC more resilient. But the decentralized command-and-control structure could also fuel chaos, experts say.
"Decentralized military units will be more difficult to find and finish off" for the United States and Israel, said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank. "But they will also be less impactful because they won't achieve critical mass."
"Some of the more disciplined and elite units will be able to stay in the fight, while other, less experienced units will fall victim to confusion and disorder," added Clarke. "I would also suspect that the US and Israel are waging a psychological operations campaign that will exacerbate this issue for the IRGC."
US President Donald Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" and called on the country's armed forces to lay down their weapons or face "certain death." He said those who surrendered would be granted immunity.
Experts warn that the decentralized wartime conditions increases the risk of uncoordinated drone and missile strikes and navigation errors that could trigger unintended escalation.
That could help explain Iranian missiles and drones hitting civilian areas like hotels and shopping malls in the Persian Gulf, analysts said.
NATO-member Turkey said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile in its border region on March 4. Another of Iran's neighbors, Azerbaijan, accused Tehran of firing drones at an airport in its Nakhchivan region on March 5. In both cases, the head of Iran's armed forces issued unusually direct denials.