The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seen a major blow to Iran's clerical rulers, but experts say there's no guarantee it will lead to the collapse of the Islamic republic.
Although Khamenei was Iran's spiritual leader and highest authority for almost four decades, the country's clerical system is designed to ensure continuity in the event of the supreme leader's death.
The 86-year-old was killed in an air strike on his residence in the capital, Tehran, on February 28 as the United States and Israel waged an aerial bombardment targeting Iran's military and political leadership.
SEE ALSO: Major Oil Refinery In Saudi Arabia Hit By Drones"While Khamenei has shaped Iran's political trajectory for more than three decades, the Islamic republic is not a personality-driven regime alone," said Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies.
Iran's theocracy, which has been in power since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, is propped up by political, military, and clerical institutions that are deeply entrenched and intended to withstand leadership changes, experts say.
They include the clerically led political establishment, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -- a key player in the country's politics, military, and economy -- and the Guardians Council, a powerful constitutional body.
"History shows that revolutionary systems under external attack tend to consolidate rather than fragment," Citrinowicz added. "The assumption that eliminating the supreme leader would cause regime collapse is speculative at best. It could just as plausibly produce elite cohesion and a more hard-line posture."
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Iran's surviving leadership is likely to name a new supreme leader quickly, wary that a power vacuum could destabilize the entire clerical system.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Al Jazeera on March 1 that a new supreme leader could be elected by the Assembly of Experts, the body charged with choosing and nominally overseeing the post of supreme leader, within the next few days.
Until then, an interim ruling council will officially govern the country. The council includes President Masud Pezeskian, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Alireza Arafi, a longstanding senior figure in the clerical establishment.
Practically, however, Iran is being run by the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the country's key policymaking body, experts say.
Ali Larijani, a veteran politician and former commander of the IRGC, heads the SNSC. An establishment insider and Khamenei loyalist, the pragmatic Larijani has emerged as a key power broker since the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025.
Another figure likely to play an increasingly prominent role, experts say, is Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, another veteran politician with ties to the IRGC.
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Since Khamenei's assassination, the question has quickly turned to who will replace him.
Officially, the Assembly of Experts picks the new supreme leader. But in reality, partly because of the existential threat posed by ongoing attacks by the United States and Israel, the succession is likely to be managed by a small circle of senior officials.
The choice is likely to reveal the direction Iran is heading toward. Under Khamenei, Iran became an international pariah known for its use of force against its own people and its deep animosity to the West.
"If an older, hard-liner cleric of Khamenei's generation emerges, it will be a strong sign that the regime is doubling down on repression and rallying the regime base," said Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group.
"There's a chance the pick is someone meant to be more palatable -- someone younger, possibly with reformist credentials, sending the signal that a new leaf is being turned."