For the first time in 36 years, Iran finds itself having to pick a new supreme leader.
It has happened only once before, in 1989, after the death of the founder of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, paved the way for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to take over.
While Khomeini died of natural causes, Khamenei was killed on the first day of a joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran on February 28. Now the 88-seat Assembly of Experts must convene in secret to select his successor.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told RFE/RL that whoever emerges will be chosen on a single criterion: political expediency. The Assembly of Experts is today a "rubber-stamp body" and the process will be driven by circumstance rather than grooming, Vatanka argued.
Many names over the years have been thrown around as potential successors to Khamenei, but currently three candidates are widely considered to be frontrunners.
Mojtaba Khamenei: The Dynasty Pick
The 56-year-old second son of the late supreme leader has long been described as the "guardian of the gate."
Despite never holding a formal government office, the younger Khamenei has spent two decades at the center of his father's office, the Beyt, coordinating between the clerical establishment and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
He is believed to be backed by the IRGC, and his selection would represent total continuity. Supporters argue his deep intimacy with the security apparatus makes him the only candidate capable of maintaining order during active conflict.
Mojtaba Khamenei attends a rally in Tehran to mark the annual Quds Day in May 2019.
However, his elevation risks domestic fury, especially among the core supporters of the Islamic republic. Critics argue a move toward "hereditary rule" betrays the very anti-monarchist roots of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
"The optics of having a son succeed his father perhaps resembles the optics of a monarchy," Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate School, told RFE/RL in 2024.
A member of the Assembly of Experts in 2024 insisted the senior Khamenei had opposed the idea of his son taking over in conversations with the assembly.
Furthermore, Khamenei Jr's relatively low clerical rank, Hojatoleslam, remains a point of contention. A news agency affiliated with Iran's seminaries has since 2022 called him an ayatollah, an honorific title reserved for high-ranking clerics.
Recent investigations, including a report by Bloomberg published in late January, detailed a sprawling and secretive real estate portfolio linked to the younger Khamenei, who has been under US sanctions since 2019.
The reports suggest he has successfully maintained and expanded a global network of luxury assets through intermediaries and shell companies.
Alireza Arafi: The Safe Bet
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, 67, is the quintessential "man of the system." Currently serving on the three-man Interim Leadership Council, Arafi has climbed every institutional ladder, from heading the global Al-Mustafa University to leading Iran's entire seminary system.
He only entered the political fray in 2019 when he was appointed as one of the six clerics on the powerful Guardian Council by Khamenei.
Alireza Arafi attends a meeting of the interim leadership council in an undisclosed location on March 2.
Arafi is the safe institutional pick. He holds the necessary clerical credentials and has served as a loyal administrator without being publicly linked to the most violent domestic crackdowns.
According to Vatanka, Arafi's rise was no accident. He said Khamenei's willingness to appoint him to sensitive roles "shows that he has a great deal of confidence in his bureaucratic abilities."
He described Arafi as a "capable foot soldier" who would likely prioritize the survival of the Islamic republic over personal charisma.
Compared to figures like judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who carry what Vatanka calls "too much blood on their hands," Arafi is a clean-record administrator that might have the backing of the IRGC "for the sake of continuity."
While Arafi is well-known in religious circles, he is far from a household name for the vast majority of Iranians. He lacks a personal power base and might struggle to command the IRGC’s absolute loyalty.
Hassan Khomeini: The Wild Card
The 53-year-old grandson of the Islamic republic's founder represents the clerical establishment's most potent symbol of "what could have been." A moderate cleric with close ties to the reformist camp, he has long been sidelined by hard-liners.
But his name has resurfaced as a potential reconciliatory candidate, especially after President Donald Trump said he would prefer a "more moderate" leader in Tehran.
Hassan Khomeini delivers a speech in Tehran in April 2021.
For a clerical system whose legitimacy has been eroding and is facing international isolation, Khomeini offers a pivot. He is associated with reformist circles and has advocated social freedoms and diplomatic de-escalation.
But he is deeply disliked by hard-liners, to the point that during a speech in 2022 the heckling got so bad that Khamenei scolded the hecklers when he came on stage after Khomeini.
His disqualification in 2016 by the Guardian Council to run for the Assembly of Experts election suggests that for the IRGC to accept him, the Islamic republic would have to be in a state of near-total collapse, viewing him as a last-resort "safety valve" -- a popular phrase among critics of the Islamic republic -- to prevent revolution.
'Save What's Left'
Vatanka asserted that the circumstances of any succession would make the mission largely irrelevant from day one. Taking over a country under military attack, with an exhausted population and an economy under severe strain, would force even a committed ideologue toward pragmatism.
"Right now is not the time to double down," Vatanka said. "Right now is the time to end this war, regroup, and save what is left of the country."